Pirates of the Caribbean holds its own at number one this week. In ten days it’s become the number one film of the year.

On the other end of the top ten, we have A Scanner Darkly, which was highly anticipated, by me, anyway. As it turns out, not so good. Linklater is great at the conversation and the character development. Not so much with the plot, and in a Philip K. Dick adaptation, plot’s kind of important. As my friend Lee would say, “not enough Dick.”

Robert Downey, Jr., though, is priceless in every scene. It’s actually a very funny film.

Speaking of funny films – or, actually, not – Little Man opened well above expectations, and should leave my $40mil prediction in the dust by about $20mil. My Dupree prediction was a little more on target, but whoda thunk that the Wayans could edge out Owen Wilson?

This week, all the movies that couldn’t find a good release date but wanted to stay out of August find a home. A cluttered, cluttered home. Seriously, three comedies in one weekend? And two the weekend before? I don’t want to laugh anymore. Not that Dupree or Little Man were threatening to make that happen.

Wide

LADY IN THE WATER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Paul Giamatti finds some chick in a pool.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s M. Night Shyamalan. That used to mean something. Well, it still kinda does. The Village does not undo his three previous films (unless, of course, you didn’t dig Signs or Unbreakable – but at this point you’d have stopped reading anyway). Still, I go into this one with very mixed feelings. Sure, we’ve got Paul Giamatti with Bob Balaban, Freddy Rodriguez and Jeffrey Wright to boot. And Chris Doyle is joining the long line of kick-ass Shyamalan cinematographers on this one. But then there’s The Village. And the fact that the premise is cheesy as hell. And Shyamalan is not cheese-proof.

Early buzz is polarized. Some critics think it’s his best, some his worst. Me, I’ll find out tomorrow night. Meet me behind the theater and I’ll let you know.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No true direct competition. And even The Village made some green. $105mil.

MONSTER HOUSE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Can’t sleep. House’ll eat me.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Does have the advantage of the Heat Vision and Jack writers (serously, does anyone know where I can get my hands on that pilot?) and the motion capture technology that made Polar Express so, um, creepy. Some nice voice talent, including Jon Heder, Steve Buscemi, Catherine O’Hara, Fred Willard, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Jason Lee. One of the few CGI-fests this year that’s not about a bunch of cuddly animals.

Early buzz is mixed, though, honestly, some of the negative buzz sounds kind of whiny.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has to deal with The Ant Bully the very next week. But they’ve ramped up their ad campaign since I last wrote about this, so it stands a good chance. $114mil.

CLERKS II

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Randall and Dante get a job at Mooby’s.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. It falls behind only Clerks as the best-rated Kevin Smith flick on the IMDB. The bit where Jay does the Buffalo Bill dance from Silence of the Lambs alone looks worth the price of admission.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
For all the hype, this doesn’t have that much market penetration. It’s a small core audience. Still, I see this poised to become a breakout hit. $82mil.

MY SUPER EX-GIRLFRIEND

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kill Luke

WILL IT SUCK?
Ivan Reitman directed one of the greatest comedies of all time. I’m talking, of course, about Legal Eagles. Or maybe Ghostbusters. Anyway, most of his work since has been mediocre (think Twins). You’d think he’d be the go-to guy for a mix of sci-fi-ish action and comedy, but his last film was Evolution. Point is, even Eddie Izzard and Rainn Wilson in supporting roles probably can’t save this. On the other hand, the writer has done some Simpsons work and has been inexplicably tapped to write the Fantastic Four sequel.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a weekend and a month that’s already overstuffed (especially with comedy), I think this is going to be one of the losers. $66mil.

Limited

There’s actually nothing coming out limited that’s confirmed as coming out this weekend. There’s stuff that’s supposed to come out, but the information is contradictory. So, if certain websites are right, you might see these flicks come to your neck of the woods (and by neck of the woods I mean LA, NY or maybe Boston).

The Amateurs – Jeff Bridges and some folks make a porn. I wrote about it before.

Shadowboxer – Helen Mirren and Cuba Gooding, Jr. do it and kill people. I wrote about it here.

Been Rich All My Life – Really, really old showgirls. Learn more.

Next Week: What kind of a name is Tubbs, anyway?

Blackballed

Admittedly, not a great trailer. But I saw the whole film at SXSW, like, two years ago and it was hilarious. Of course, it’s out on DVD now, so I don’t know what the trailer’s for.

Snakes on a Plane

There are many trailers for Snakes on a Plane, but this one is the best by far.

Spider-Man 3

You can’t tell me you haven’t seen this yet. But, just in case, do yourself a favor and download the HD version. It’s that tight.

Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning

Ok, so, there’s a whole deal where you can only watch this between 10pm and 4am, but when you actually get to it, it’s approved for all freakin’ audiences! Still, it’s a pretty creepy trailer, but no more so than Hostel or Wolf Creek or any other torturefest.

Transformers

Oh, it’s not a “teaser,” it’s an “announcement.” It’s still stupid. Oh, Michael Bay, why won’t you let me get psyched for this movie?

Saw a sneak of Little Miss Sunshine the other night. This is the indie darling of the Sundance set, where Fox Searchlight bought it for a record $10mil. Was it worth it? I’d say so. They’ll definitely make their money back. And although something still feels vaguely sit-commy to me about it, it’s still a great script and you couldn’t ask for a better cast. Steve Carell is a likely Best Supporting Actor nod at this point (no shit). And the script could get some love, too. Definitely check it out.

The directors were in attendance and were nice enough to answer my geeky question about one of the supporting cast who was also in Donnie Darko playing a similar role and sure enough they knew what I was blathering about. Even better, they were up on an obscure infomercial reference one of the other audience members pointed out. Gotta love that.

Region 1 DVD Releases for July 11th, 2006

This week Showtime throws down with some help from Joe Dante and pot.

Tristram Shandy – A Cock and Bull Story

For those of you who like your comedy meta and a little perverse comes this gem from 24 Hour Party People directing/acting cohorts Michael Winterbottom and Steve Coogan. There’s a little bit of Extras thrown in as well as the team adds yet another level to the stories within stories of the classically unadaptable Laurence Sterne novel The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman. As you might imagine, the extra level here is the attempt to make a film of the unfilmable tome. Worth it for the closing dueling Pacinos alone.

Extras include commentary by Coogan and co-star (and Pacino duelist) Rob Brydon, an interview with Coogan by Tony Wilson (the guy he played in 24 Hour Party People), deleted scenes, scene extensions and, if you can handle this level of meta, behind the scenes footage.

Basic Instinct 2 (Unrated)

Is there anyone who thought that the problem with this film was that it had a rating? By most accounts, this wasn’t even enjoyably sucky. Extras include commentary from the director (I almost want to see how he gets through that), a featurette called “Between the Sheets” (shudder), 10 deleted scenes (a sort of “there but for the grace of God” kind of feature, I imagine) and an alternate ending in which they don’t make the movie. Okay, that’s just my alternate ending. You can also get this in Blu-ray, which is another point in HD DVD’s favor.

Weeds – Season 1

Thanks to Netflix, I no longer have to wend my way through this on iTunes. Though, from what I’ve heard, it’s well worth owning. Put it on the list with Sopranos, Deadwood and Battlestar Galactica of shows I damn well should have made my way through by now. Extras include “Agrestic Herbal Recipes,” commentary on six episodes, outtakes, a mockumentary and some Showtime featurettes.

Masters of Horror: Joe Dante – Homecoming

This is the episode of Showtime’s horror anthology we’ve all been waiting for. More than a zombie tale, this is a political statement from more-subversive-than-he’s-given-credit-for director Joe Dante. Dead Iraq War soldiers come back to life — and they can vote. ‘Nuff said.

For an episode of an anthology series, there are actually quite a few extras. Commentary by the writer, numerous interviews (two with Dante), a making-of featurette and, on the DVD-ROM, the original screenplay, the original short story on which this was based and, of course, a screensaver.

Protocols of Zion

In this day and age, one would hope that a documentary about anti-Semitism in America would have little or no material. Sadly, this is a feature-length documentary about the rise of that very sentiment in post-9/11 USA. Extras include a Q&A with the filmmaker, deleted scenes and a timeline of the eponymous conspiracy theory.

The hype was true (or self-fulfilling). Pirates broke the all-time record for an opening weekend, and didn’t have to resort to a four day holiday weekend to do so (X3, I’m looking in your direction). It broke the record set by Aquaman, er, Spider-Man by over $15mil. I’m comforted by the fact that it’s actually a worthy sequel. I think the 52% on RT is just so much pirate hatin’.

7/14

Wide

LITTLE MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
What’s funnier than two Wayanses posing as white women? One Wayans posing as a baby, of course.

WILL IT SUCK?
This may be the first movie that didn’t need the help of Revolution Studios to suck, but it has it anyway. Keenan Ivory Wayans has not directed a good film since I’m Gonna Git You Sucka, and no, Scary Movie doesn’t count.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As with White Chicks, this is positioned well. The Owen Wilson/Wayans crossover audience is pretty slim, so there’ll be little competish from Dupree. $40mil.

YOU, ME AND DUPREE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
What About Owen?

WILL IT SUCK?
Well, I’ll give the directors (they’re brothers) the fact that they directed the Arrested Development pilot. And I like that Seth Rogen is getting some screen time. And I went to high school with the guy who plays “Eddie.” Other than that, this looks like the unfunniest comedy since, well, Little Man. (No, nothing looks that bad.)

Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s not that I don’t think Owen Wilson can open a movie on his own, I just don’t think he can open this movie on his own. $56mil.

Limited

EDMOND
Oh, sure. He looks sane now.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
William H. Macy goes batshit crazy.

WILL IT SUCK?
So this is what happens when you team the director of Re-Animator with a David Mamet screenplay. I’m curious to see if Dule Hill and George Wendt can speak Mamet (though Hill is fluent in Sorkin, so it’s not much of a stretch). Even more curious to see if Denise Richards and Mena Suvari can handle that prose. In any case, early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cast-wise it’s not hurting, but even Spartan had better promotion. $1mil.

THE OH IN OHIO
If you think that’s disturbing, how about I tell you that it’s Liza Minelli wearing the masturbation cape.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Paul Rudd can’t make Parker Posey cum, so they basically leave each other for different lovers.

WILL IT SUCK?
The trailer’s pretty damn funny, but the early buzz is not.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has a comparable cast to Edmond, but the advantage of being a comedy. Of course, there’ll be about fifty comedies out by the time it hits week two. $4mil.

THE GROOMSMEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ed Burns gets ready for his wedding with the help of his B-list friends.

WILL IT SUCK?
With a cast that includes John Mahoney, John Leguizamo, Donal Logue and Jay Mohr, you’d expect a trailer that didn’t suck. Ed Burns has basically been making the same movie since The Brothers McMullen, which isn’t a bad film. But this still doesn’t look good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nice cast, but nobody knows about this film, and those who do aren’t too psyched. $3mil.

Next Week: M. Night and Kevin Smith try to make the fact that they have new movies coming out be something to be psyched for again.

Saw The Proposition the other night. It’s like Unforgiven without all the moral clarity. Danny Huston is quickly becoming one of my favorite actors and Guy Pearce is pretty typically reliable and John Hurt wallows in his character’s crapulence better than them all, but the real revelation here is Ray f’in Winstone. Holy shit. This guy takes a character (and the screenplay, by Nick Cave – more on that in a minute – deserves some credit for this as well) who starts out a despicable bad-ass and turns him into the one of the most sympathetic yet morally complex characters I’ve seen onscreen in a while.

This film is not for the faint of eye. It’s almost like what would happen if Cronenberg decided to direct a Western. On a somewhat related note, the narrative and presentation are very much like a Nick Cave song. Director John Hillcoat deserves credit for matching Cave’s aural style with a visual aesthetic. It’s pretty and gritty all at once. Cave’s music, not surprisingly, shows up in the film and is interesting in two ways. One, part of it is sort of spoken word poetry which for me usually comes off as pretentious (see Thin Red Line) but here works for some reason. Two, it’s not period. There’s a lot of distorted guitar but, again, it works for some reason (probably because it doesn’t sound like any period).
This, by the way, is the whole movie. The leads pointing guns at things.
So, if you feel like you can deal with heads getting blown or cut off and characters who, at best, are accessories to rape and genocide, go nuts.

Region 1 DVD Releases for July 4, 2006 (Which, of Course, Was Yesterday)

Celebrate America’s independence from the English by buying a bunch of stuff from Great Britain.

Dr. Who – The Complete First Series

Let’s start with the series that swept the British Emmys (not to mention a BAFTA win for Best Dramatic Series). The return of the much-beloved if occasionally cheesy 26-year-running British sci-fi series produced mixed results. As a longtime fan of the original series, I was disappointed by some changes and impressed by others. The season certainly gets better as it goes along, attempting a complexity at which the original only hinted. In spite of a few bumps in the road, it will leave you wanting more. A must for Who fans.

This looks to be a very well tricked out collection with plenty of extras including commentary on every episode, a 165-minute collection of featurettes narrated by Simon Shaun of the Dead Pegg (who also appears as a villain in one episode). Also includes The Christmas Invasion, a special episode which did not air with the regular series as broadcast in the States by the Sci-Fi Channel.

The Matador

This is the most American of our selections, with a Yank writer/director and American indie stalwarts Greg Kinnear and Hope Davis in key roles, but the film belongs to Irish actor Pierce Brosnan, playing a loopy variation on his Bond persona (neatly timed with his problematic – read: he wuz robbed – departure from the franchise). This is the first DVD I’ve heard of with podcasts as one of the extras – episodes of KCRW’s “The Treatment” and “The Business,” both covering the film, are included.

The Libertine

Johnny Depp plays the Earl of Rochester, a 17th century poet famous for being licentious and getting syphilis. John Malkovich plays Charles II, who takes a shine to the scamp, and Samantha Morton plays one of his many, many, many female admirers. Really not all that well reviewed. Extras include commentary, some deleted scenes and a featurette.

Stoned (Unrated Widescreen Edition)

I know how frustrated you were with the rated version of this movie you’ve never heard of, so I’m sure you’ll be glad to know that there’s a DVD version now that’s unrated. This film follows the story of Rolling Stones guitarist Brian Jones who was there for the beginning but not so much for the rest. Then he died. Apparently very muddled, but in the unrated version you get to see his junk.

Marilyn Hotchkiss’ Ballroom Dancing and Charm School

Yet another poorly reviewed, poorly received indie, this one with Scotsman Robert Carlyle and not-so-Scottish Marisa Tomei, Mary Steenburgen, Sean Astin, Donnie Wahlberg, Danny DeVito and John Goodman. As you might imagine, it’s about a dancing and charm school. Extras include commentary and the short film on which this is based.

More here.

So how do we rate Superman? The $52mil weekend gross? The $84mil Wed-Sun numbers? Or the $110 full week from opening to July 4th holiday? Either way, I’d say my $250mil figure is an easy reach. The real surprise is Prada. $27mil over the weekend and $39mil coming into the holiday. My $60mil prediction is starting to look lowball.

By the way, Superman Returns? Outstanding. No different, fundamentally, from the 1978 original (except that it’s better). But still outstanding.

Wide

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN’S CHEST

ARRR, WHAT BE THE PITCH THIS TIME?
Jack Sparrow vs. Davy Jones (not the one from The Monkees).

ARRR, BE IT OF THE VARIETY OF FILMS THAT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, so I guess it was a smart move to keep the same cast, writers and director for this installment. And adding Bill Nighy to the mix probably didn’t hurt. Oh, and who’s a pirate’s favorite addition to the cast? Stellan Skaaaarrrrrrrsgaaaaaarrrrrrd!

ARRR, HOW MANY DUBLOONS WILL IT PLUNDER?
This is probably the only movie that has nothing to fear from the second frame of Superman, and the following week two weak-ass comedies are all it has to stare down. Every pundit from here to Tuscaloosa has declared this the sure-fire number one hit of the summer in spite of Da Vinci Code, X-Men, Superman, Mission Impossible, Cars and, of course, SOAP. And polls of moviegoers seem to agree. $335mil.

Limited

A SCANNER DARKLY

ARRR, I MEAN, UM, WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The latest adaptation of a Philip K. Dick novel. As if the rotoscope effect weren’t mindfuck enough.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very split. I guess Linklater plus rotoscoping equals controversy. But me, I loved Waking Life. And having Robert Downey, Jr. and Linklater vet Rory Cochrane involved can only help.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With the following and star power this film has, Warner Independent could have probably released it wide as counterprogramming to Pirates. $20mil.

ONCE IN A LIFETIME: THE EXTRAORDINARY STORY OF THE NEW YORK COSMOS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hey, remember the North American Soccer League? Anyone?

WILL IT SUCK?
Actually, I love soccer. Though it’s arguably the Waking Life of sports in America. But who doesn’t want to see a doc that includes Pelé, Studio 54 and Steve Ross? Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if soccer weren’t generally ignored in the US, you’d have to deal with the fact that the fan base isn’t a clean match with indie/doc filmgoers. $1mil.

Next Week: A comedy that will make you say “Seriously?”