It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that Grudge 2 would be number one this weekend, but the real surprise here is One Night With the King, which came out of nowhere to grab the #9 spot with over $4mil. An impressive number when you consider that this had practically no advertising outside of frequent mentions on The 700 Club.
10/20
Wide
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Story of the photograph that changed the course of WWII. Well, at least according to the trailer.
WILL IT SUCK?
This project just keeps unfolding like a flower. First, you get Eastwood and Spielberg co-producing, with Eastwood helming. Throw in Paul Haggis and William Broyles, Jr. on pens. Then let drop with a sequel of sorts, the same story told from the Japanese point of view, Letters from Iwo Jima, due to come out in December. Finally, throw in an ad campaign that makes it seem like the photo kept us in a war that was growing increasingly unpopular for our own good. Given the progressiveness of so many aspects of this project, the latter part seems like a marketing decision.
The short version is, Eastwood’s on a tear right now, and the last time he teamed with Haggis, we got Million Dollar Baby.
Early buzz is very mixed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Prestige is probably it’s biggest competition, but that just doesn’t have the same Support Our Troops feel. $101mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Normally here I’d just say, “Remember the part about the last time Eastwood teamed with Haggis?” However, if Letters really does come out in December, all bets are off, because who knows how the Academy will parse that.
THE PRESTIGE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Batman and Wolverine play dueling magicians.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is from Christopher Nolan, who doesn’t suck. If that weren’t enough, David Bowie plays Tesla (the scientist, not the band, though that would be pretty awesome, too).
Early buzz is encouraging.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Flags will not be kind, but this has a hot cast and fans of Batman Begins have to be happy about the reteaming of Bale, Nolan and Caine. $68mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
While this doesn’t feel like Oscar bait, there are certainly enough worthy actors to make a go of it.
MARIE ANTOINETTE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kirsten Dunst as the famous queen, with an 80’s new wave soundtrack.
WILL IT SUCK?
In the greatest of ironies, the movie that was famously panned at Cannes was nominated for that festival’s Palme D’Or and won that festival’s Cinema Prize of the French National Education System. All other buzz is equally promising. Writer/director Sofia Coppola won a lot of good will with Lost in Translation, so I’m pot committed to at least her next two films.
Early buzz is very, very good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some of these movies really oughtta move to next weekend, which has been virtually evacuated for Saw III. In this case, though, I think the limited releases indie route would be more advantageous. Still, there is that good will thing I mentioned before. $35mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think some Geisha-style nods (Costume, Art Direction) aren’t out of line, but a second directing or writing nod might be a bit much to ask. Dunst is, however, on the medium-list for Best Actress.
FLICKA
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
As in My Friend…
WILL IT SUCK?
And how. The writers did another couple of animal flicks — Mighty Joe Young and Planet of the Apes. And if you’re still not convinced, they also did Mercury Rising, The Beverly Hillbillies and Superman IV.
Incidentally, if you ever wondered what they had to put in the credits if animals were harmed during the making, it’s something like the film included “an at-risk segment unauthorized by American Humane, resulting in injury or death of an animal,” which PETA wants put in due to a couple on set accidents that resulted in just that, except that the AHA was on hand.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s not so much competition as a lack of awareness that might hurt this film. $12mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Alison Lohman could not get nods for White Oleander or Matchstick Men, she ain’t getting one for this.
Limited
THE NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS — 3-D
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Same as before, but you wear glasses this time.
WILL IT SUCK?
I think you pretty much know already whether or not you like the movie. The only question is whether or not it will be enhanced by a 3-D re-mastering, although they apparently messed with the soundtrack, too, which makes me nervous. What little I’ve seen of the new wave of 3-D in general is pretty damn impressive, so it’ll probably be worth it, especially since the glasses finally look cool.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Flicka’s a bit of an issue, but the real problem is that, by nature, this is kind of a limited release. Still, a lot of parents are going to want their kids to see this. $26mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Are re-releases even eligible? If so, I think Gone With the Wind would have even more Oscars.
RUNNING WITH SCISSORS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Adaptation of the best-selling Augusten Burroughs novel about a kid who grows up raised by his mother’s therapist.
WILL IT SUCK?
Do you like Nip/Tuck, cos’ the writer/director done did a lot of that. His next film is called Why Can’t I Be Audrey Hepburn, which makes me smile.
Early buzz, however, is not good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is arguably the second biggest indie release of the month, what with the property, Annette Bening, Brian Cox, Alec Baldwin, Gwyneth Paltrow and Evan Rachel Wood and the heat on tell-alls right now (although that last part is largely hype, imho). $16mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Bad reviews could sink everybody but Bening.
SLEEPING DOGS LIE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman shares a dirty secret with her fiancé which, if you were paying any attention at all during Sundance, you already know what it is.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is kind of “meh,” which is a step up from Bob Goldthwait’s last writing/directing gig, Shakes the Clown.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t know that it’s improved its station all that much by moving here from last month. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There is no category for this secret.
Next Week: The race to make enough money to justify a Saw IV is on!