Last year, the uninformed opinion proved right, and my beloved Seahawks (I can still name at least one of their players, I think) went down like birds of prey suddenly pummeled by angry steelworkers assisted by sketchy referees.

This year, we see what mighty forces converge when the Chicago Bears take on the Indianapolis Colts. Once again, I have a bit of a bias to confess. Inidanapolis stole the Colts from my hometown (before we, you know, stole a team for ourselves).

That being said, I’m going to try to dispassionately predict who will win based on who would win in a fight between actual bears and actual colts.

THE PASSING GAME

Bears have massive, powerful arms. If they could actually grip a football without utterly crushing it or deflating it with their razor-sharp flesh-shredding claws, they could throw it, like, at least a few yards. They can’t catch for shit, but neither can horses, so it’s a wash. This is why I predict the Bears will focus on their passing game.

Colts have no arms. They can, however, kick like motherfuckers. ADVANTAGE: BEARS

THE RUNNING GAME

Colts are powerful steeds and other really manly words for horses and so can run very, very fast. Much faster than bears, who have short stubby legs and must use their arms to run on all fours which, as you know, is completely illegal in football, unless you’re a horse. If you’ve never seen a bear try to run “human-style,” it’s just hilarious, really. This is why I predict the Colts will focus on their running game.

Bears, however, can climb like motherfuckers. ADVANTAGE: COLTS

ANIMAL TO ANIMAL

If a bear and a colt ever came face-to-face, the colt would be hellascrewed (it’s a football term). The bear would slash and tear and generally “fuck up” the horse. Good thing for the horse this would never, ever happen. The colt could run much faster than the bear, who would never catch it. But you can’t win a game by running away from it. Nor can you win it by mauling horses. So I’m not sure what this has to do with anything. Why did you bring it up? ADVANTAGE: EVEN

STAR POWER

Over the years, many films have been made about bears, including The Bear, Brother Bear, The Bad News Bears (about a team of bear/journalists) and Hey, That’s My Bear! The fact that Hey, That’s My Bear! is not a real film in no way diminishes the importance of bears on film. Horses on film, however, have an even richer tradition, with Black Beauty, The Black Stallion and Blackula (The Horse, Not the African-American Vampire) as but a few examples. In none of these films, though, has a horse ever really kicked any kind of ass (aside from the odd trampling, but really, who cares?) whereas it’s almost impossible to put a bear in a movie and have him or her not maul or threaten to maul, even to comic effect (see: The Great Outdoors or that crappy film with Seth Green - actually, The Great Outdoors sucked, too; don’t see either). ADVANTAGE: BEARS

GAMBLING ADDICTIVITY (IT’S A WORD)

If horseracing is the sport of kings, then bearracing (if it were legal, or remotely feasible) would be the sport of slightly paunchier kings. Unfortunately for bears, horses (and to a lesser extent dogs, and in three states, babies) have cornered the market on racing for sport (and by sport, I mean gambling). If bears did race, we would gladly spend a fortune betting on our favorites, with colorful names like Mauly McGee, The Thresher King and Not The Face! But they don’t. ADVANTAGE: COLTS (unless they finally legalize the Ultimate Bear Fighting Championship).

SEX APPEAL

To my knowledge, no one has ever spread rumors about Catherine the Great doing it with a bear. Just saying. ADVANTAGE: CAN’T SEE HOW THIS WOULD HELP EITHER TEAM

So, on the field, as in nature, bears and colts are evenly matched, which is why I’m predicting the first tie in the history of the Superbowl, which would, of course, lead us into the first overtime in Superbowl history, at which point the Bears would win because of karma you Colt fuckers! (Note: I am referring here to the Colts as fuckers, not to people who like to have sex with horses - looking in your direction, your Highness.)

Region 1 DVD Releases for January 30, 2006

This week, Christian is the new indie.

Catch a Fire

Philip Noyce directs and Tim Robbins and Derek Luke star in this politically charged thriller about a man accused of a crime he didn’t commit, then radicalized by the torture he receives at the hands of his captors in 1980s South Africa. Based on the true story of Patrick Chamusso. Extras include commentary from Noyce, Robbins, Luke and Chamusso, among others.

Flyboys (Two-Disc Collector’s Edition)

Don’t know how this quite warrants a two disc collection, but at least the dogfight sequences in this WWI drama are supposed to be pretty neat. That’s about it. Extras include a whole mess of featurettes and a DVD-ROM game.

Facing the Giants

One of two Christian-themed films that came out of nowhere to make significant grosses last year. Shot by a church in Albany, Georgia for $100,000, this football drama went on to gross over $10 million. Doesn’t make it a well-reviewed film (it isn’t), but still a neat story. Extras include an interview with the University of Georgia Bulldogs Coach Mark Richt.

One Night With the King

This would be the other Christian-themed film to pull ridiculous grosses out of thin air, though this one, admittedly, had a major studio backing it (the new Fox/Faith label), which may explain how it managed to open in the top ten with virtually no major network advertising. Also had the star power of Omar Sharif, John Rhys-Davies, Peter O’Toole, and Tommy “Tiny” Lister, who really should be in more Biblical epics. Again, not all that well-reviewed. Cost 200 times as much as Giants and made about $3 million more.

The Marine (Unrated Edition)

The latest attempt by the WWE to practice tthe alchemy that turns wrestling icons like The Rock into action stars turned out more like See No Evil, which took Kane from “wrestling star” to “wrestling star who was in a movie once.” In this case, it’s John Cena facing off against Robert Patrick, which hardly seems fair.Don’t worry, the unrated edition also includes the rated edition on the same disc.

More here.

Epic Movie exceeded even my generous expectations and should finish out its theatrical life with almost $60mil in the bank. Even further exceeding my modest expectations is Smokin’ Aces, which nabs Carnahan his best box office yet (it made more in a weekend than Narc in its entire run) and hopefully give him the opportunity to make something the critics like again (and with Killing Pablo and White Jazz in the pipeline, that seems likely).

2/2

Wide

THE MESSENGERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like The Grudge except, um…okay, it pretty much looks like The Grudge.

WILL IT SUCK?
Directed by the guys who did The Eye, but there’s no evidence that that’s going to help. But, hey, Cancer Man’s up in here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will be wiped out by Hannibal the following week. $16mil.

BECAUSE I SAID SO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The synopsis says it’s about trying to set up Mandy Moore’s character with a beau, but the trailer makes it look like it’s all about setting up the mom (Diane Keaton) with that guy from 7th Heaven.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s been 20 years since Heathers, and we’re still no closer to director Michael Lehman repeating that glory (in spite of best. film. ever. Hudson Hawk). I don’t think the writers of Stepmom are going to help much. But hey, anything that gives Tony Hale work.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Catch and Release’s underwhelming opening means it won’t be in Because’s way. $31mil.

Limited

FACTORY GIRL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The story of Andy Warhol’s muse, Edie Sedgwick (Sienna Miller).

WILL IT SUCK?
Guy Pearce plays Warhol and Hayden Christensen plays, um, some other guy. This is from documentarian George “Hearts of Darkness” Hickenlooper, so it’ll be interesting to see what he does with a bio-pic. One of the screenwriters is a bio-pic vet, having written Wonderland. Unfortunately, like Wonderland, early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A delayed release distancing it from the Awards-heavy December indie scene might help a little, but bad reviews might take all that advantage away. $2mil.

AN UNREASONABLE MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An Inconvenient Nader

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is impressive, especially given the two-and-a-half-hour run time.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The film’s biggest hurdle is anti-Nader sentiment or, worse, disinterest. $500,000.

Next Week: Hannibal vs. Norbit. If only that were an actual movie.

So here’s what I predicted would get nominated for an Oscar.

And here’s what actually got nominated.

I shot a little over 77 percent.

I nailed the Best Supporting Actress category, which really just means the Academy matched SAG nod for nod.

Two surprises in the Best Supporting Actor category. One, Leo ain’t as I hot as I thought (and Djimon is hotter, God bless ‘im) and two, someone handled Marky Mark’s campaign better than Jack’s, even though a successful Jack campaign usually need only involve mentioning that Jack was in a film that year.

Why Borat got a Best Adapted Screenplay nod is beyond me*, but since Sacha didn’t get the Best Actor love, I guess I’ll take it. Don’t know why I didn’t see Marber’s Notes nod coming a mile away, but I wish Reitman’s Smoking screenplay could have made it in. Also, glad to be right about Children (of Men, not Little). Wasn’t actually 100 percent sure that would happen.

*{Actually, I do have a theory about that. The Writer’s Guild is in the midst of trying to recruit all reality television writers into their fold so that if they go on strike, the networks can’t just rely on reality programming to get them through the crunch. Giving a “reality-based” movie like Borat a screenplay nod reinforces the message that reality TV needs writers, too.}

I was equally surprised by the Original Screenplay nods. First of all, isn’t Letters From Iwo Jima (which I expected to get snubbed for Adapted) based on Picture Letters From Commander in Chief by Tadamichi Kuribayashi and Tsuyoko Yoshido? It’s right there on the poster! Second of all, my dream of Two Guys Named Guillermo and a Best Original Screenplay Nod came true.

Best Actress - replace Beyonce with Kate Winslet. I don’t think anyone’s going to have a problem with that. Beyonce’s going to perform, in all likelihood, anyway when she sings one of the three songs nominated from Dreamgirls. This also means - wait for it - that Eddie Murphy is probably going to sing at the Oscars as well (he’s one of the leads on “Patience”). Nice.

Best Actor is a bittersweet category for me for two reasons. One, this is the first year in a while I didn’t nail it (but I still did 4 out of 5 so I’m not exactly complaining). Two, replace Sacha Baron Cohen, who did a better job than anyone else nominated, with Ryan Gosling who did an outstanding job that I thought would be overlooked (even with SAG love). I’m a big Gosling fan (though I have not been able to bring myself to watch The Notebook) ever since The Believer (for which he was reeeaaaalllly overlooked), so I’m comforted to see him get recognized, even though it may be at Sacha’s expense.

Eastwood and Greengrass are the surprises in Directing. Overall, I underestimated Letters, and this is just one example. Greengrass totally earned this nod, which evaded him when the DGA nods dropped. And if United is to receive but only two nods (Directing and Editing) at least they’re the two for which it is most deserving.

And, of course, the big story: Dreamgirls, after getting nods from the PGA, SAG and DGA (not to mention multiple Golden Globe nods) and getting more Academy nods than any other picture, gets completely overlooked for Sound Editing. I mean seriously, both Flags of Our Fathers AND Letters From Iwo Jima get nods in that category but there’s no room for a musical?

Oh, and it didn’t get a Best Picture nod. So, how’s by you?

Region 1 DVD Releases for January 23, 2007

I don’t think the kids in Jesus Camp would be allowed to watch any of these films. Except maybe The Guardian. And Jesus Camp.

Saw III (Unrated Widescreen Edition)

At this point, you know whether or not you like the Saw. Me, I still haven’t gotten around to the first one (long, long Netflix backlog). So in lieu of an opinion, please enjoy the following Tobin Bell trivia. Did you know he plays Robert DeNiro’s parole officer in Goodfellas?

Extras include three commentary tracks. No word yet on whether or not Saw IV will have four.

The Guardian

Time was when Andrew Davis was helming films like The Fugititve. Now he’s helming Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Costner in a film that, in theory, should be very exciting. Being a Coast Guard rescue swimmer is one of the most dangerous jobs on the planet. But, then again, it’s Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Costner. Even positive reviews use the word “cliché.”

Extras include a tribute to the real-life Coast Guard rescuers.

This Film Is Not Yet Rated

Does anyone think it’s a coincidence that this news story accompanies this DVD release? Although I can’t imagine anyone at the MPAA willing to help out director Kirby Dick. Regardless, this is one of the best docs I saw last year and a must for anyone interested in the biz.

Extras include a Q&A with Dick at SXSW, which is where I saw the film. Depending on which night they pick, I might be on there!

Sherrybaby

Maggie Gyllenhaal earned a Golden Globe nod for her portrayal of a single mom just out of prison in this debut feature (if you don’t count the doc Nuyorican Dream) from writer/director Laurie Collyer. Keep an eye out for character actor faves Danny Trejo and Giancarlo Esposito.

Unless Spanish subtitles or a trailer counts, this has no special features.

Jesus Camp

Controversial, but more interestingly endorsed by some on both sides of the controversy, this doc takes a look at an evangelical Christian camp for kids in North Dakota. Keep an eye out for Ted “Naughty” Haggard toward the end of the film. Guaranteed to freak you out or give you hope for the future.

Extras include directors’ commentary and even more of the ex-President of the National Association of Evangelicals.

Night at the Museum just made more money than Superman Returns. The Hitcher, in the meantime, underperformed at fifth place.

1/26

Wide

SMOKIN’ ACES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Get Piven

WILL IT SUCK?
After Narc, writer/director Joe Carnahan can pretty much do no wrong, even if he did tease us dropping out of Mission Impossible III. The kick-ass cast doesn’t hurt, with Peter Berg, Jeremy Piven, Jason Bateman, Andy Garcia, Ray Liotta and Ryan Reynolds, among others, all up in there.

Early buzz, however, is pretty bad.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
About as many people know about this as knew about Narc when it came out so, not so well, especially with 50 other films coming out the same weekend. $33mil.

CATCH AND RELEASE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Jennifer Garner) tries to get over the death of her husband with a little help from her wacky love interest (Timothy Olyphant) and her wacky friend (Kevin Smith, yes, that Kevin Smith).

WILL IT SUCK?
Normally I would dismiss this as another craptacular romantic comedy. However, writer/director Susannah Grant (she who wrote Erin Brockovich, In Her Shoes, Charlotte’s Web - hey, it got good reviews) is not to be dismissed. I am a little disturbed by the sad-but-inevitable relegation of Not-So-Silent Bob to the goofy sidekick role in someone else’s movie.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has to deal with the even chick-ier Because I Said So the following week. $25mil.

BLOOD AND CHOCOLATE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An American Werewolf in…um, Looks Like Prague?

WILL IT SUCK?
I love the fact that this is directed by Iron Jawed Angels helmer Katja von Garnier, as if this were female empowerment through werewolfery, althouh I guess it kind of is. Co-adapted by Ehren Kruger, who hasn’t written a good adaptation since The Ring, so I’m not holding my breath.

Early buzz is crappy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Though competing horror flick The Invisible swerved in this weekend’s game of release date chicken, Epic Movie more or less targets the same teens. $17mil.

EPIC MOVIE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Like Scary Movie or Date Movie, but probably worse.

WILL IT SUCK?
I think you know the answer to that question. Oh, and yes, there is a Scary Movie 5 in the works.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Should own the weekend. $51mil.

Next Week: Hey, you know what I haven’t seen in a while? A horror movie.

Is it possible for every film in the race to be a come-from-behind success? Babel wasn’t really on the radar but suddenly had a jillion Golden Globe nods and showed up in almost every Guild’s short list. Little Miss Sunshine wowed crowds at Sundance but that’s almost a guarantee of not getting anything other than an Independent Spirit Award. And now the Producer’s Guild (not the best Best Picture prognosticators mind you) has given it the gold.

So, this year, I’ve found it very hard to predict what will or won’t tickle the Academy’s fancy. In fact, three of my categories match the respective guild nod for nod (though that usually only happens once per year). And with that confidence-inspiring build-up, here we go…

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barazza - Babel

The first of two likely Babel nods in this category, which means neither will win.

Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal

Second only to Hudson in critics circle wins.

Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine

Too cute to lose. (The nod, I mean. Jennifer Hudson will wipe the floor with her come Oscar night.)

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls

The one to beat.

Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Could be replaced by Catherine O’Hara, but I doubt it.

Sorely overlooked: Shareeka Epps in Half Nelson. Nothing against Breslin, but hers is the standout child performance of the year.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine

Likely to win the Oscar he deserved for Glengarry Glen Ross.

Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed

I think the temptation to nominate him in two categories will be too great.

Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children

The I-didn’t-see-it-but-I-hear-it’s-good nod of the year.

Jack Nicholson - The Departed

It’s Jack. He could get a nod for an infomercial.

Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls

It’ll be a knock-down drag-out between him and Arkin for the win.

Sorely Overlooked: Let’s see. Sergi Lopez in Pan’s Labyrinth, Steve Carell in Little Miss Sunshine, Michael Sheen in The Queen. Oh, and the whole cast of Letters From Iwo Jima.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Children of Men - David Arata, Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby & Timothy J. Sexton

The late bloomer.

The Departed - William Monahan

Adapted from a kick-ass Hong Kong action flick. A rare instance where I prefer the American version.

The Devil Wears Prada - Aline Brosh McKenna

The only novel here you’ve actually heard of.

Little Children - Todd Field & Tom Perrotta

Everyone else (GG, BFCA, WGA) is doing it.

Thank You for Smoking - Jason Reitman

My personal favorite.

Sorely overlooked: Iris Yamashita, Letters From Iwo Jima

Best Original Screenplay

Babel - Guillermo Arriaga

Surprisingly, it would be his first.

Little Miss Sunshine - Michael Arndt

The one to beat.

Pan’s Labyrinth - Guillermo del Toro

Could just as easily be Stranger Than Fiction, but I like the idea of two guys named Guillermo getting the nod.

The Queen - Peter Morgan

Could steal Arndt’s Sunshine.

United 93 - Paul Greengrass

Probably the only nod this will get.

Sorely overlooked: Nick Cave, The Proposition.

Best Actress

Penelope Cruz - Volver

Believe it or not, her first.

Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal

Fulfilled her requirement of being in a movie in order to get a nod.

Beyonce Knowles - Dreamgirls

Ooooh, shiny!

Helen Mirren - The Queen

This goes beyond “the one to beat.”

Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada

The American Judi Dench.

Sorely overlooked: Shauna Macdonald in The Descent. If Sigourney can get a nod for Aliens…

Best Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat: Cultural Learnings Of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation Of Kazakhstan

Wishful thinking.

Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond

Why this is “Best Actor” and The Departed is “Best Supporting Actor” is anyone’s guess.

Peter O’Toole - Venus

He told you not to give him a lifetime achievement yet.

Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

His second.

Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

The one to beat.

Sorely overlooked: Ray Winstone in The Proposition. I mean holy crap.

Best Director

Bill Condon - Dreamgirls

The unsung hero of Dreamgirls.

Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine

Helmers of this year’s Crash.

Stephen Frears - The Queen

Hasn’t been nominated since 1991. And no, he got no nod for Dangerous Liaisons.

Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel

Helmer of this year’s other Crash.

Martin Scorsese - The Departed

For once I can say this and mean it: “Martin Scorsese is the one to beat.”

Sorely overlooked: There are so many. But let’s put Alfonso Cuarón out there as a “fer instance.”

Best Picture

Babel

The Golden Globe win happened after nominations were closed, but the seven GG nods, seven BFCA nods and five assorted Guild nods didn’t.

The Departed

First one to make it to the short list.

Dreamgirls

This year’s Chicago? Not really, but still a contender.

Little Miss Sunshine

The nod was a lock before the PGA win, but the PGA win actually makes it a player.

The Queen

Another early favorite (for the short list, not the win).

Sorely overlooked: Letters From Iwo Jima and United 93 looked like early favorites, too, and both deserve to be here. But if I had to pick one to throw in, it would be Children of Men.

See you Tuesday morning at 5:30 a.m. And if you don’t make coffee, I’ll be pissed.

Maybe it’s the war in Iraq. Maybe it’s Paris Hilton. Maybe it’s the second wave of the Seventies. Whatever the reason, down was in this year, at least with me. Most of the movies on my top ten are about as bleak as Vilsack’s chances in ‘08.

10. Tsotsi

“What kind of bastard would break a dog’s back?”

Not exactly a downer, but the journey to redemption in this flick is harsh. Breastfeeding-at-gunpoint harsh. In a plot point that became de rigeur in ‘06, a car is jacked with a baby on board. Many other filmmakers would take this opportunity to amp up the treacle as our antihero carjacker is slowly humanized, but writer/director Gavin Hood pulls no punches. The movie earns your respect, frame by beautifully composed frame. Performances are outstanding, and the soundtrack kicks ass. More here.

Note: Earned a Best Foreign Language Film Oscar in ‘06, but wasn’t officially released in the States until last year.

9. Happy Feet

“Yeah, I saw an animal do that once and then they rolled him over and he was dead.”

George Miller surprises me here in much the same way he did with the Babe films (yes, both of them), taking a premise that turned me off in trailer form, and using it to launch into quirky, original territory. From the Moulin Rouge-inspired opening to a genuinely surprising plot turn to the downright gorgeous cinematography (seriously, it’s probably the most beautiful movie I saw in ‘06), the film never stops distinguishing itself from just about every other animated film in a year overcrowded with animated fare (though Cars comes a close second).

8. Why We Fight

“When war becomes that profitable, you’re going to see a lot more of it.”

Perhaps the most depressing notion posited by this doc about how no one listened to Eisenhower’s farewell address is that no matter who’s in charge, Democrat or Republican, war is always profitable and, in some creeping sense, preferred. How much easier is it as a legislator, the film intimates, to vote for conflict when you know it will bring millions of dollars to your constituents? How similar is the Iraq War to scores of conflicts around the world in which the U.S. has had a hand since the end of WWII? How difficult is it to defeat a bill to make more stealth bombers when each state has a contract to build a different part? Say the most left-wing lunatic gets elected in ‘08; what this doc seems to say, and quite compellingly, is that it really won’t make any difference, because that’s no longer where the problem lies. More here.

7. Pan’s Labyrinth

“My mother told me to be wary of Fauns.”

Perhaps the most depressing movie I have ever seen, and yet, one of the most magical, Pan’s Labyrinth is the masterpiece we suspected Guillermo Del Toro had in him all along (no disrespect to Blade II, which is the shit). Containing images that would make Apocalypto blush, the film nevertheless composes an almost sentimental paean to the imagination of youth in the midst of the most brutal of circumstances, in this case, Franco’s Spain. Sergi López gives an Oscar-worthy (but likely to be ignored) performance as the manifestation of that brutality, the rigid, self-loathing Capitan Vidal, and Ivana Baquero caps what’s been a particularly good year for child performances (Abigail Breslin, Shareeka Epps) as the impulsive Ofelia.

6. Dreamgirls

“You know why I made you the lead? Because your voice has no personality.”

The hype was true. Most of it anyway. Critics saw 20 minutes of this flick at Cannes and started raving. Eddie Murphy was getting Oscar buzz. In May. By the time the film finally came out, the buzz survived and, post-screenings, was only slightly diminished. Yes, the film is essentially a collection of great performances, but the Supremes/Motown allegory still gives them a compelling backbone. And Eddie Murphy earns every bit of that Oscar buzz. Ditto Jennifer Hudson, who single-handedly commands the most applause-inducing scene in recent memory. More here.

5. The Proposition

“I want you to kill your brother.”

This simple declaration spawns the most shades-of-grey dissertation on violence since, well, A History of Violence and perhaps the most conflicted Western of all time. As I described it when I first saw it, it’s like Unforgiven without all the moral clarity. John Hurt has a compelling turn as a bounty hunter but the real magic here belongs to Ray Winstone who portrays one of the most complex characters I’ve ever seen. More here.

4. Letters From Iwo Jima

“If our children can live safely for one more day, it would be worth the one more day that we defend this island.”

Speaking of morally ambiguous treatises on violence (funny how those come up during wartime), Eastwood’s second film of the year would have been an awesome idea even if the film itself sucked: A companion piece to Flags of Our Fathers telling the story of Iwo Jima from the Japanese perspective. Fortunately, it did not suck and in fact surpasses its powerful predecessor.

The performances here are all solid and the filmmaking is Eastwood at his most assured. The man knows how to make a point without beating it into the ground. He also knows how to take the disturbing and hold it up to the light from every conceivable angle, refusing to let us settle into any easy opinions about it. One of the most important war films ever made, and a great film by any standard.

3. United 93

“We have to do something, they are not going to land this plane.”

The same unflinching eye director Paul Greengrass brought to Bloody Sunday lays bare the heroism, confusion and horror of 9/11. His camera allows no buffer between you and the people experiencing it. And that final shot will stay with you forever.

2. Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan

“May George Bush drink the blood of every man, woman, and child in Iraq!”

Sacha Baron Cohen exposes our insecurities and prejudices by playing the classic fool. This film has as much in common with Being There as Jackass. It’s no wonder Cohen considers Peter Sellers a major influence. As tense as any other film on this list, but in a completely different way. Your only reassurance that our hero won’t get killed from scene to scene is the fact that Cohen is around to tell the tale.

Blurring the lines between documentary and narrative fiction (and earning a WGA nod for Best Adapted Screenplay in the process) with direction from Humor of the Uncomfortable maestro Larry Charles, Borat also boasts an incredible performance (perhaps the best of the year) from Cohen who manages to create a surprisingly versatile character and then maintain it in what might be termed “extreme improv” situations.

It’s also as scary as any film on this list, with the very real lynch-happy machinations of one man against all gays and the drunken-yet-earnest yearnings of college-educated folk for the return of slavery.

For all the high-minded satire, however, I’d be lying if I said the biggest laughs didn’t come during the naked wrestling scene.

1. Children of Men

“Very odd, what happens in a world without children’s voices.”

When people talk about “virtuoso filmmaking” they should point to this picture. Alfonso Cuarón sets the bar high in the first thirty minutes with a sequence that announces how ruthless both the plot and the cinematography is going to be. Clive Owen does his best bleak-future-face with a soulful performance that, like the script, never manages to lose its wry sense of humor.

The dystopia the world posits is all the more convincing because it merely tweaks the current circumstance. As in V for Vendetta, Britain is the only civilization left standing, although it’s not very civilized. Immigrants are rounded up and left to wait in cages on the street or brutal refugee camps for deportation. Television ads remind citizens that it’s illegal to buy from or sell to them. Sound familiar? And the inability to walk down the street without knowing if you’ll be blown up or kidnapped isn’t science fiction at all in, oh, say 23 countries already.

Cuarón makes you feel the paranoia of living in a world where nothing is stable while the production design sets the grime-meter to eleven. All the world’s racism, fear and anger of the last few years is somehow pooled here and thrown back at us, often in unbelievably long and masterful tracking shots. It’s almost like someone challenged Cuarón to tell the story in as few edits as possible.

It’s not surprising that human life is held cheaply when it’s in abundance. What this movie shows us is that it can be even cheaper when there’s no more where it came from. And when there’s a chance that all of that will change, it’s suddenly precious again. That may sound cheesy on paper, but Cuarón makes it achingly real.

It may seem from this list that escapism is dead to me, but with sequels to Pirates of the Caribbean, Spider-Man, Shrek, The Bourne Identity, Ocean’s 11, 28 Days Later, The Fantastic Four, Die Hard and Bruce Almighty due this year, I don’t think it’s going anywhere.

Golden Globe winners here.

Dude, I totally nailed the Cecil B. Demille award. What I did not predict was Tom Hanks liberal use of the term “balls” or Warren Beatty’s attempt to speak Borat. I did like how they kept reminding us that it was “Tom Hanks” tribute to Beatty during the montage, like Tom personally put it together the night before in Final Cut.

Remember when I said Letters could be a spoiler for Best Foreign? There you go. That’ll be the last time that happens, though. Academy rules prevent Letters from getting the same nod at their gala.

How did the Critic’s Choice Awards beat the Golden Globes to the adding-an-animated-category punch?

Didn’t see Prince winning Best Song for some reason. Certainly didn’t see Justin Timberlake making fun of him. Are you like me? Did you imagine that when Prince showed up later, it was because he saw Timberlake on TV and decided to kick his ass?

And when Ryan Seacrest was interviewing Kiefer Sutherland on the red carpet, didn’t you really want Kiefer to suddenly and without warning chomp down on Seacrest’s jugular? That would have been awesome.

How sweet was it to watch Spielberg give Scorsese the globe? I want that in a poster.

Sacha Baron Cohen: Best. Acceptance speech. Ever.

So Babel, huh? Didn’t see that coming. I’d say this would affect its Oscar nod chances, but noms closed Saturday. If it does get a Best Picture nod (and if the PGA is any indication, it will), this win makes it a much more serious contender than I ever imagined.

TV-wise, glad to see Ugly Betty get some love, more for America Ferrara than anything else. If you haven’t seen Real Women Have Curves, do so now. And Alec Baldwin absolutely makes 30 Rock, even though it’s pretty much made before he gets there.

Overall I shot about 77 percent (just movies), which means I’m getting much better at predicting these things, especially when I do it half-assed. Blink might be right. Or maybe it’s just an easy year.

Region 1 DVD Releases for January 16, 2006

This week: Not since Smokey & the Bandit 2 has a film had the guts to run with the two elephant premise.

The Protector

Tony Jaa (Ong Bak) goes after two stolen elephants. If that doesn’t do it for ya, I don’t know what will. Loads of extras, including the longer Thai cut of the film and commentary by Asian film expert Bey Logan.

Doctor Who - The Complete Second Series

David Tennant (Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire) ably takes over for Christopher Eccleston as the Doctor in the second season of the revamp of the classic British sci-fi series. The season itself delivers on the promise of season one with the return of a classic Who foe and two classic Who companions and a season-ending showdown some 30-odd years in the making. Also, keep an eye out for Hustle regular Marc Warren and fellow Potter alum Shirley Henderson in the “Love and Monsters” ep and Buffy alum Anthony Head in “School Reunion.” Extras include commentary on every ep, and video diaries from Tennant.

Gridiron Gang

Of the three true-life football stories released last year, this is by far the one with the most appearances by The Rock and Xzibit. Top that Invincible and We Are Marshall! Includes a profile of director Phil Jouanou, whse last good film may have been Rattle & Hum.

The Texas Chainsaw Massacre - The Beginning (Unrated Edition)

A new wave of cinema is hitting theaters in which we see the origin stories of popular characters such as Batman or James Bond. Here we see Leatherface begin, and in February we can look forward to seeing Hannibal Lechter’s backstory. The behind-the-scenes featurette is, of course, called “Down to the Bone.”

Employee of the Month

The combination of Dane Cook and Jessica Simpson secured a healthy box office (compared to the meater $12 million budget) for this flick even before DVD, where it’s sure to thrive. Film-wise, however, it’s a little early to say that Cook has “arrived.” Although I don’t really want to see the movie, the audio commentary with Cook has me curious.

Update: More here.