I really have to stop underestimating dance movies. Stomp the Yard raked in almost as much this weekend as I thought it would take in its entire run.

1/19

Wide

THE HITCHER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Yet another remake of a 20-year-old horror film.

WILL IT SUCK?
The Michael Bay Horror Refurbishing Machine (a.k.a. Platinum Dunes) strikes again, after regurgitating Texas Chainsaw Massacre and The Amityville Horror and they’ve even pulled in a writer who’s already done a horror remake (When a Stranger Calls). Probably the only move with any cred here is the casting of Sean Bean as the psycho.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There’s a reason Platinum Dunes hasn’t shuttered. $39mil.

Limited

THE ITALIAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Six-year-old goes in search of his mum.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is quite good. Thought by many to be an early favorite for Russia’s choice for Best Foreign Film Oscar submission, but that plum went to 9th Company.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even with the Oscar buzz this would be a tough sell. $1mil.

Next Week: Five movies that, for some reason, didn’t want to take on The Hitcher.

Usually, I put much more effort into this, like last year. This year, I was at CES when I would normally be writing this. Regardless, I had to at least take a shot.

Cecil B. DeMille Award

I’m calling Warren Beatty for this one. I don’t know why. I’ve just got a good feeling.

Foreign Film

Will Win: Pan’s Labrynth
Should Win: Pan’s Labrynth

Letters could be a spoiler here, but there’s just more love out there for Pan’s. It is, in fact, an amazing film, even if every time I think about it I get extremely depressed.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Cars
Should Win: Happy Feet

A dead heat between Cars and Happy, but Cars has a few more wins out there right now. I actually prefer Happy Feet, though Cars is not to be dismissed.

Original Song

Will Win: “Listen”
Should Win: “Listen”

The most popular eligible song from a popular musical is always tough to beat. Also, creating a song that even comes close to balancing out “And I Am Telling You…” from the first half is no mean feat.

Original Score

I find it extremely difficult to care about this category since I haven’t heard a score that stuck with me in about ten years, so I’m just going to say The Da Vinci Code because it would be really amusing to see one of the most critically reviled films of the year get some love.

Screenplay

Will Win: The Queen
Should Win: The Queen

This is basically a dead heat between The Departed, which is favored in most circles for Adapted and The Queen, which carries that honor in Original, but the HFP doesn’t make that distinction. I think The Queen has maybe 1 percent more love so I’m going with that. For “should,” it’s maybe 2 percent tighter than The Departed, which has a little flab.

Director

Will Win: Scorsese
Should Win: Scorsese

I’m not just saying this because “he’s due.” In fact, the HFP is one of the few groups who’ve actually given the man some love in the past (one win out of six nods, which for Scorsese is like a ticker tape parade). But this year he really is raking in the plaudits, with the most critics circle wins of any director. Not to mention that The Departed is masterfully crafted. Not that Babel or any of the other films nominated aren’t, but anything to push The Man toward at least one Oscar in his lifetime.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Jennifer Hudson
Should Win: Adriana Barraza

This is kind of a no-brainer, but don’t underestimate the spoiling power of Cate Blanchett. Jennifer Hudson got me all verklempt, but Adriana Barraza gave me outright soul-ache, which I think is slightly harder to pull off.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Eddie Murphy
Should Win: Mark Wahlberg

This is a very tough call. First off, the HFP list bears little or no resemblance to the critics circles and almost none at all to the SAG nods, except…wait for it…Eddie Murphy. It’s also a showy role from a popular comedian showing a dramatic side, something for which the HFP have awarded Jim Carrey and Bill Murray in the past. It’s also a tough call in that Murphy gives a truly great performance, but I find Wahlberg’s to be more memorable, and even more of a feat because he holds his own against Martin Sheen, Alec Baldwin, Jack Nicholson, Leo DiCaprio and Matt Damon while creating it.

Actress in a Leading Role – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Meryl Streep

Since none of these women are named Helen Mirren, this is kind of a tough category to call, however, one of these women is named Merly Streep, and happens to be in the most successful film listed. Of the three performances I’ve seen off this list, Streep’s is, not surprisingly, the strongest.

Actress in a Leading Role – Drama

Will Win: Helen Mirren
Should Win: Helen Mirren

I’ve run across one critics circle that hasn’t given Mirren Best Actress (Austin, who gave it to the overlooked Ellen Page in Hard Candy). I’ve heard good things about Winslet in Little Children, but since I haven’t seen it, I have to go with Mirren who creates one of those complete I-could-run-into-this-person-in-real-life characters, which is espeically impressive since it’s, you know, the Queen.

Actor in a Leading Role – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Should Win: Sacha Baron Cohen

I think Cohen’s got a legitmate shot here. This is one of the few comic performances to get notice in traditionally dramatic circles (though I still think an Academy nod is a long shot). As far as merit goes, three words: you try that.

Actor in a Leading Role – Drama

Will Win: Forest Whitaker
Should Win: Forest Whitaker

After Ray and Capote, it seems like becoming a true-life character is the surest way to awards fame. Now, Whitaker’s film wasn’t called Amin, but close enough. He’s got almost as many cc wins as Mirren, and what’s more, it really is a performance on par with Ray and Capote.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Dreamgirls
Should Win: Boratgirls

A tighter category than you might think. Borat kind of came out of nowhere to wow critics, and Little Miss Sunshine has been riding a wave that goes back to this summer. Still, Dreamgirls goes all the way back to Cannes, where the first 20 minutes floored many of the HFP voters and then delivered on that promise upon arrival. Though Dreamgirls seems like the obvious choice, it hasn’t fared well in critics circles, lending credence to the idea that Borat or Sunshine could spoil. At this point, I still can’t decide whether I love Dreamgirls or Borat the most, so whichever wins, I’ll be a happy camper.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Will Win: The Departed
Should Win: United 93

The Departed has the most momentum, but look out for The Queen to spoil. Babel has the most nods, but only in HFP-land. It’s hard to see them go completely against every other organization out there – although The Producer’s Guild took notice, which puts Babel into Oscar play.

All that having been said, it’s time for me to get on my soapbox about United. It’s got more cc wins than any other film (and director Greengrass has garnered his fair share, too), but it’s not even nominated in this category, and the Guilds (with the exception of the WGA!?) have ignored it as well. It’s on it’s way to becoming the Peter Saarsgard in Shattered Glass of this awards season.

If I have to stick with what’s actually nominated, uh, I guess The Departed. The Queen is technically a better film, but The Departed is more fun.

…where the Wi-Fi flows freely. It should give you some idea just how busy I’ve been at CES that I’m only able to find time now, as I wait for a red eye taking me home, to post something that usually goes up on Monday.

1/12

Wide

ALPHA DOG

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True crime story with kids getting involved in drugs, kidnapping and murder.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Apparently the director of The Notebook is making things a little glossy. Or maybe it’s just a bunch of Justin Timberlake haters.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Stomp the Yard will capture some of the demo, but this has had some time to build up buzz, good or bad, and the eclectic cast, which includes everyone from Bruce Willis to Emile Hirsch, might be a draw. $22mil.

STOMP THE YARD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
You Got Served on Campus

WILL IT SUCK?
“Hey, can we get the guy who directed I Know What You Did Last Summer to direct this?”

“No.”

“How about I Still Know What You Did Last Summer?”

“Nope. But we can get the guy who directed I’ll Always Know What You Did Last Summer.”

“Now you’re just making up movies.”

Buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The second frame of Freedom Writers is a little bit of competition, but only in that it’s also about troubled yoots. $31mil.

Also, Primeval comes out this week, but it kind of snuck up on me, so I’m just going to leave it to you to decide if a movie about a giant crocodile that’s being advertised as a movie about a serial killer who happens to not be human is gonna do well/be good.

Next Week: Of all the C. Thomas Howell movies to remake, I don’t know how this won out over Soul Man.

I will be here for the next week. Blogging may be scarce.

My friend to the Great White North Jay has put together a new Web site with some of his friends called Livebait.tv. I’ve checked out one of their video podcasts and it’s pretty cool. DJ Champion kicks ass. Check it out.

Also, can anyone tell me the difference between a vlog, a video podcast and, y’know, video?

Region 1 DVD Releases for January 2, 2007

This week: Ring in the new year with you-know-what on a you-know-what.

Snakes on a Plane

There was a lot of hating on Snakes on a Plane when it first came out because the internet buzz didn’t result in a blockbuster opening, but for my money, this film delivered exactly what the hype promised – snakes on a muthafuckin’ plane. Sam Jackson nearly earns an Oscar bringing absolute dedication to the bit, and as ridiculously-premised films go, it’s actually very entertaining.

As you might expect, one of the numerous featurettes is called “Snakes on a Blog,” plus muthafuckin’ Sam Jackson on the muthafuckin’ commentary track with the director.

The Covenant

Proof that Renny Harlin is unstoppable and may have more inexplicable momentum than Uwe Boll. This low-rent Lost Boys, which I’ll lay odds you don’t remember, opened at number one at the box office – along with Apocalypto, one of the lowest-grossing number ones of the year.

Extras include commentary from Harlin, in which I hope he explains how he keeps getting work.

Artie Lange’s Beer League

This kind of came and went in theaters but I think the producers knew its real value would be on DVD. If you’re any kind of Howard fan, none of this is news to you, and if you’re not, you’re probably not going to rush out and buy this Benchwarmers redux anyway.

This is probably the first DVD with ringtones as one of the extras.

Love’s Abiding Joy

You figure that Artie Lange and aerial reptiles would have pretty decent followings that would knock their DVDs to the top of the bestselling new releases list on Amazon. But the fact of the matter is the number one selling new DVD this week comes from a series that I’ve never heard of. If you can shed light on the “Love Comes Softly” series by Janette Oke, please do. Love’s Abiding Joy is a Hallmark TV movie based on the fourth novel in that series and it’s apparently got a better following than Snakes on a Plane. I guess this must mean I don’t spend a lot of time reading romance novels. Shame on me.

Breakfast at Tiffany’s (Anniversary Edition)

They don’t really specify which anniversary this is for the film. Technically it’s the 46th, but I’m guessing they mean 45th (maybe that’s why they don’t say). In any case, great film boasting the talents of Audrey Hepburn, a pre-A-Team (and completely hetero-ized from his character in the novel) George Peppard and an unbelievably racist stereotype Japanese Mickey Rooney.

Extras in this version amount to a bunch of featurettes.

More here.

Night at the Museum actually jumped in its second week, up 24 percent over last week. Dreamgirls, in the meantime, comes in third and isn’t even finished expanding yet. Welcome to 2007.

1/5

Wide

CODE NAME: THE CLEANER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cedric the Entertainer thinks he’s a spy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Almost certainly. I’d like to say that the presence of Midnight Run scribe George Gallo would be a mitigating factor, but we’re talking about the director of The Man at the helm.

At least with Mark Dacascos on board, there’ll be some good kung fu.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t think we’re at the point yet where Cedric can open a film. $13mil.

HAPPILY N’EVER AFTER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Shrek without, you know, Shrek.

WILL IT SUCK?
As Dr. Wife so kindly put it, “It’s nice to see that Andy Dick was able to fit in some voice work between 8-balls.” Yeah, that’s about all there is to say about this one.

Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hoodwinked, this ain’t . $25mil.

FREEDOM WRITERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dead Poets Stand and Deliver Dangerous Minds to Sir, With Love

WILL IT SUCK?
You could do worse than to have Richard LaGravenese (writer: The Fisher King, The Ref; director: A Decade Under the Influence) writing and directing your film. Still, seems like a retread.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Stomp the Yard might provide a little competition the following week, but inspirational teacher stories are usually good for a modest return. $19mil.

Next Week: I think more movies should be named after SUVs.