So Ghost Rider rode high for another week, beating out The Number 23 (my review here), but the real news, of course, is that Scorsese is an Oscar winner, restoring balance to The Force.

3/2

Wide

WILD HOGS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Middle-Aged Rider

WILL IT SUCK?
This actually looks pretty good. Director did the underrated (or so I’m told) Van Wilder and the writer’s done his fare share of Arrested Development. Travolta, Lawrence, Allen and Macy look like they’ll work surprisingly well together. Keep an eye out for cameos by Kyle Gass and Drew Pinsky.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will pretty much own the comedy spotlight and pool the admittedly diminished followings of its leads. $75mil.

ZODIAC

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The story of the Zodiac Killer, as told by David Fincher.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is gooood and why not? Well, because sometimes David Fincher makes The Game or Panic Room or Alien 3 which, while not sucking (okay, maybe Alien 3 sucked) aren’t Fight Club or Se7en.

Cast looks awesome, too, with Jake Gyllenhaal, Mark Ruffalo, Anthony Edwards, Robert Downey Jr., Brian Cox, Chloe Sevigny, Elias Koteas, Dermot Mulroney, Donal Logue, Philip Baker Hall, John Mahoney, Adam Goldberg and James LeGros.

The writer did the surprisingly good The Rundown and the unsurprisingly bad Basic and Darkness Falls.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The only problem is that this film is out for one week before 300 obliterates everything in its path. $43mil.

BLACK SNAKE MOAN

(Moved from February)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sam Jackson chains up Christina Ricci in his shack. Yeah, I know what you’re thinking. About fucking time.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s kind of hard to tell just how seriously writer/director Craig Brewer (Hustle & Flow) wants us to take his latest opus. There’s the over-the-top grindhouse style posters, the tounge-in-cheek trailer, oh, and it’s about a guy who chains up a woman to cure her of her nymphomania/drug addiction (and, to play the race card, a black man chaining up a white woman in…wait for it…the deep South).

That having been said, the early buzz is good, with critics suggesting that if you can get past the premise, it’s quite entertaining (which, arguably, could be said of Hustle & Flow).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not exactly a date movie. $23mil.

FULL OF IT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Every lie the new kid in school tells becomes true.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writers behind Rebound. Yes, it took more than one person to write that. Very preliminary buzz is actually good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If New Line lies about the grosses, will that come true? $14mil.

Limited

TWO WEEKS

(Moved from December)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Four siblings get stuck together when they arrive to say goodbye to their ailing mother. Guess for how long.

WILL IT SUCK?
Sally Field plays the dying mom. Tom Cavanaugh is one of ths siblings. Early buzz is mixed, with audiences liking it way more than critics.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
My guess is, people will stay home and get their Sally Field fix on Brothers & Sisters. $1mil.

WILD TIGERS I HAVE KNOWN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Artsy coming-of-age story.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed with critics more in favor than lukewarm audiences.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will be overshadowed by The Namesake the following week. $500,000.

Next Week: The last time anyone will call Zack Snyder “that guy who did the Dawn of the Dead remake.”

Before we get to the Great Big Three-Way (not like that) that is the Best Picture race, let’s look at a few contests that look more or less decided.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Will Win: Jennifer Hudson
Should Win: Adriana Barraza

And I am telling you that Hudson has 12 circle wins including the Golden Globes, BFCA and BAFTA. Oh, and SAG, too. What’s Cate Blanchett got? Seven circle wins. And she’s already won an Oscar. Abigail Breslin? 3/2 odds, so maybe she’s a spoiler. Hudson’s tracking 1/8. The only downside for Hudson is she doesn’t get to sing her showstopping number. Unless she refuses to leave when the show ends.

I loved Hudson’s performance in Dreamgirls. Of course I got weepy during “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going.” But you know what? Barraza packed more punch. That punch developed over a longer period of time, and maybe that’s the difference between a sprinter and a marathoner, but Barraza got it done.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

Will Win: Alan Arkin
Should Win: Jackie Earle Haley

Here is where I go against the conventional wisdom. Sort of. I usually do it once every year, and I usually get burned as a result. Still, I have to think that in spite of Eddie Murphy’s SAG, BFCA and Golden Globe wins against Arkin’s measly BAFTA, that the late reward rule of the Academy will kick in in this case. I keep thinking of James Coburn’s surprise win for Affliction. And this isn’t because of Norbit. The Academy likes it when people make money. That’s part of the reason Scorsese’s gone so long without a statue. But the actors, who make up the majority, like a legend even more. As it turns out, Arkin’s got 1/1 odds here against 2/3 for Murphy, but I think that’s crap. The smart money is still on Murphy.

If I had my druthers, Steve Carell would be up for this instead of Arkin, and Noah Emmerich would be up instead of Haley, but then my decision would be really hard. As it is, I think Haley stands out. Wahlberg has a more traditional supporting role (and steals every scene) while Murphy develops his fullest character by far, but the heaviest lifting comes from Haley, who takes an already unsympathetic role and carries it through the second most interesting character arc in a film full of interesting character arcs. (The most interesting arc in the film belongs to Emmerich, and he nails it.)

BEST ACTRESS

Penélope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children

Will Win: Helen Mirren
Should Win: Helen Mirren

As Jamie Foxx and Philip Seymour Hoffman were to Best Actor, so is Helen Mirren to Best Actress. 31 circle wins, including BAFTA, BFCA and the Globes with a SAG cherry on top. 1/25 odds.

And she deserves it. This is the most complete, engaging, yet understated performance on this list. Like Foxx and Hoffman, she creates a fully realized persona based on an actual person. Does the fact that it’s based on an actual person make it any easier? I don’t know. I think of Charlize Theron as Aileen Wuornos or Hilary Swank as Brandon Teena. Maybe that type of performance simply lends itself more readily to a complete portrayal. Regardless, it’s the most convincing of the lot (with the caveat that I haven’t seen Dame Dench yet).

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

Will Win: Forest Whitaker
Should Win: Forest Whitaker

Forest Whitaker is almost as much of a lock as Dame Mirren. He’s got the BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe and SAG quadfecta, plus another 20 circle wins to spare. It’s also the third in an increasingly long line of biographical favorites after Ray and Capote. The only thing missing is to call his film Amin. Will Smith is playing a true life character, too, but you’ve never heard of…um…that guy he plays.

Leo does a great job in Blood Diamond. His Scene of Menace with Djimon Hounsou is a showstopper. But there’s only so much else going on. Gosling is fantastic in Half Nelson, but he gets overshadowed by a 15-year-old and besides, he should have won this for The Believer. I haven’t actually seen O’Toole or Smith’s performances, but they’d have to be damn good to top Whitaker’s all-encomassing turn as Amin. Pulling off charismatic, intimidating, psychotic and vulnerable all at once is probably worth the statue.

BEST DIRECTOR

Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed

Will Win: The Scorsenator
Should Win: Paul Greengrass

With 17 circle awards including a BFCA and a Golden Globe, I was still disinclined to predict Scorsese for the win. Why? Because I’ve been down this road before, and it has broken my heart. If Scorsese couldn’t win with GoodFellas or Taxi Driver or Raging Bull, what chance could he have with The Aviator or Gangs of New York? And then something magical happened. Unprecedented, really.

He won the DGA award.

See, the Directors Guild seemed to hate him even more than the Academy. He’s only lost four directing Oscars. He’s lost six DGAs.
And the DGA is the best predictor out there. 90 percent accurate. So I’m finally comfortable saying it:

It’s Scorsese’s year.

Except it isn’t. I loved The Departed. Don’t get me wrong. But United 93 is a better film, and Paul Greengrass pulls off an even tougher task. When you’re at this level, it’s all strength of schedule, and to make any film about 9/11 only five years after the fact and make it in such a way that doesn’t distance you from the material but rather confronts you with it in the most intimate way possible - cinéma vérité - is bold. To go one step further and not fuck it up is admirable. To go even further and make it near-flawless is Oscar-worthy.

BEST PICTURE

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Will Win: The Departed
Should Win: Letters From Iwo Jima

Babel is the secret favorite. The unoffical buzz around Hollywood has a lot of people voting for it the way they voted for Crash last year. It pulled out a Golden Globe for Best Picture without troubling the water in any other category.

The Departed is Scorsese’s comeback. His third or fourth comeback. Anyway, if you’re going to reward the director, why not reward the film as well? Even if splitting director and picture is increasingly common, the trend is still toward one picture to rule them all. Besides, it’s the most seen film in the bunch to the tune of $128 million, more than twice its closest competitor. Oh, and there’s the matter of 8 circle wins, including the BFCA.

Letters From Iwo Jima has all the grandeur we’ve come to expect from a Best Picture. And if anyone had gone to see it, they might have noticed.

Little Miss Sunshine is the other secret favorite. The Producer’s Guild surprised everyone and virtually made the film a lock since almost every time they agree with SAG’s Best Ensemble award, that films goes on to win Best Picture. Almost. Did I mention the Academy hasn’t awarded a comedy Best Picture in 30 years? (Unless you count Titanic, which was high-larious!) On the other hand, you could argue that means they’re due. It’s also the second most lucrative film on this list at $59 million.

The Queen has a BAFTA win. Moving on.

So why between the three most likely suspects do I pick The Departed, other than its 1/5 odds and a vague belief in the wisdom of crowds? Well, looking back at the last ten or so winners, I get a sense of stodginess. Not that The Departed is a stodgy film per se, but certainly moreso than the other two. Here’s how it breaks down:

Babel, too artsy.

Little Miss Sunshine, too funny.

The Departed, posititively Shakespearean.

It’s something I didn’t really notice until just now. The Departed is very Macbeth. And that Shakespearean stodginess may just carry it into the winner’s seat.

Again, due respect to The Departed, but Letters is the better flick. As well drawn as the characters are in The Departed (and they’re not all well drawn - I’m looking in your direction, sole female lead) they’re even better drawn in Letters. As potent as the action is in The Departed, it’s more unforgettable in Letters. As lyrically tragic as The Departed is, Letters is, um, tragickier.

And Letters has more to grapple with. I give Scorsese and screenwriter William Monahan a lot of credit for developing the Hong Kong original and adding issues of class, masculinity and ethnicity to spice up the story, but the issues Eastwood and screenwriter Iris Yamashita raise are even meatier and the experiment (to take the opposing side of one of the few relatively morally clear wars we have left) riskier.

Even if you strip all of that away, I was simply more moved by Letters than by any of these films (though Babel comes close).

That having been said, if Borat had been nominated, we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

You’d think after March of the Penguins I’d never again be able to work our flightless friends back into the title. But nothing’s impossible. Except a win for Poseidon. To wit…

VISUAL EFFECTS

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns

Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

For what it’s worth, Pirates pretty much swept the Visual Effects Society awards and is kind of hard to miss what with being the top grosser of the year (and sixth of all time). That the other two are considered (unfairly in one case, very fairly in another) box office disappointments doesn’t hurt.

Poseidon has one great sequence and Superman has several, but if you don’t want to give it to Pirates for the Kraken or the Flying Dutchman, give it up for Davy Jones.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Will Win: Cars
Should Win: Happy Feet

It’s gonna be a knock-down drag-out between Cars and Happy Feet, but in the end, Cars will out. It’s got 10 circle awards, including the first animated Golden Globe win ever and a BFCA. Add to that an Annie plus the fact that it’s the number two box office grosser for ‘06 and you’ve got a sizeable contender (which is the odds on favorite at 1/3). Happy Feet is no slouch with seven circle wins and a BAFTA, and it managed to place in the top ten for the year (bringing the total number of animated films in 2006’s top ten to three - Ice Age: The Meltdown is the third). In the end, though, I think Pixar’s winning streak will continue. The last time they got beat was the first time the award existed, and they lost to Shrek.

I never thought I’d root against Pixar, but Happy Feet is just more original. Cars is a well-crafted, beautiful film that is, in its way, Pixar’s most mature film yet, but Happy Feet has all of that and a less predictable arc plus the most inventive use of music since Moulin Rouge. Perhaps I had higher expectations of Cars and lower expectations of Happy Feet, and they’re both must-see flicks, but I gotta go with George Miller on this one.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Prestige

Will Win: Children of Men
Should Win: Children of Men

Seven circle wins (including a BAFTA) and an ASC award should pretty much lock it for Men, but it’s neat that there’s room in this category for two films about 19th century magicians.

If you haven’t seen Children of Men, it might not be readily apparent why it’s such a no-brainer for a cinematography statue, but the tracking shots in this film are unbelievable. And there are so many.

FILM EDITING

Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93

Will Win: United 93
Should Win: United 93

More often than not, this award goes to a Best Picture nominee and usually a winner. But in this case, something special happened. Babel and The Departed, the only two films here nominated for Best Picture, tied for an Eddie (the editors guild award). The last time this occured was 1989, when Mississippi Burning tied with Rain Man. And you know what happened? The Oscar went to Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, even though both Mississippi Burning and Rain Man were up for it. Now it would be silly to presume that the same thing would happen again just because there was a tie, but I’m going to do it anyway. And I’ll say it’s United 93 because (a) it won a BAFTA for Best Editing and (b) I think there’ll be some 9/11 sympathy afoot. But mostly (a), because if this was all about 9/11 sympathy, United 93 would have gotten a lot more nods.

And maybe some of my own bias is in there, too. Children of Men has oustanding editing (part of the magic of tracking shots is knowing when to cut), but the documentary style of United 93 relies on flawless editing. Hold a shot too long, you’ll break the tension. Make your cutting too flashy, we’re in MTV-ville.

SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED

Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

Will Win: The Departed
Should Win: Children of Men

All the numbers add up to a win for The Departed. Eight circle awards plus the WGA. Children of Men got the Scripter, plus two circle wins, but that’s not enough. Besides, there’ll be plenty of Departed love flowing in the room that night.

“Should” is a tricky call. Borat’s a fantastic film, but does the screenplay make it so, or outstanding acting and direction? The Departed manages to improve upon a Hong Kong action film, no mean feat. Little Children is a strong screenplay, maybe the strongest in the bunch, and certainly the most literary. And, um, I haven’t seen Notes on a Scandal, but Marber’s a good writer, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Ultimately, I think Children of Men is the strongest screenplay here, but is it the best adaptation? You’ll find plenty of discussion on how far the screenplay strays from the novel, and whether or not that’s a good thing (this one has study questions!). In the end, though, I think the category has developed into an (occasionally arbitrary) distinction to reward work that may not have originated in Final Draft, with a comparison to the original material as a secondary concern (Honestly, how many Academy members do you think read Little Children? Come to think of it, how many do you think actually saw it?). I say this because how do you compare the adaptation of a novel to the adaptation of a character, which is how Borat ends up here? Or maybe this is just a cop-out so I don’t have to go back and read Children of Men before I write this.

SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL

Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen

Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine
Should Win: Letters From Iwo Jima

This is a very tough call. Little Miss Sunshine has six circle wins, including love from the WGA, BAFTA and BFCA. The Queen, on the other hand, has 10 circles in its corner, including the Golden Globes. In the end though, the prevailing wind is blowing in the direction of Sunshine, maybe even for Best Picture, a claim which The Queen cannot make. Also, indie darlings usually rule here, and Sunshine’s had that cred going back to Sundance.

Letters probably doesn’t even belong in this category, at least according to the poster, but given that it’s here, it’s the best of the bunch, especially (ironically) for adaptation reasons. If this really was culled from actual letters from Iwo Jima, it’s a feat of incomparable legerdemain to create from that a coherent (not to mention moving) story with all the themes and whatnot that make for a great screenplay intact. The Queen pulls off a similar stunt, culled as it is from real events, but Letters moved me more.

In our next, and final installment: I reveal that Babel is a lock for Best Picture. Or maybe The Departed. Actually, I can’t shake this feeling I’ve had about Little Miss Sunshine. You know what could win? Casino Royale. Like, as a write-in.

I think the Best Song category may be the only chance we’ll have to pit the vocal stylings of James Taylor (”Our Town” from Cars) against those of Eddie Murphy (”Patience” from Dreamgirls). Taylor’s just lucky he’s not going up against “Party All the Time,” cos’ that shit would be over before it began.

MAKEUP

Apocalypto
Click
Pan’s Labyrinth

Will Win: Pan’s Labyrinth
Should Win: Pan’s Labyrinth

There’s no real mystery to this category, except why certain films don’t get nominated (Monster, Planet of the Apes, Transamerica, The Hours), although this year I can’t think of any glaring omissions (Davey Jones was all CGI, baby). The most obvious achievement tends to prevail. Here I think Pan and the Pale Man will outstrip making Adam Sandler look old or giving out a shitload of piercings (do those even count as makeup?).

Pan’s Labyrinth really was a great achievement in makeup, especially if you count the Joker scene (if you saw it, you’ll know what I mean, and be very disturbed).

COSTUME DESIGN

Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen

Will Win: Dreamgirls
Should Win: Dreamgirls

This award almost always goes to a period film, which more or less eliminates Prada and Queen. Then you have to factor in that more than just costume designers will be voting, and most of the rest of the Academy hasn’t seen Curse or Antionette. On the other hand, the Costume Deisgners Guild went for Curse, so consider it a spoiler.

I, too, have not seen Curse or Antoinette, but I’ve seen enough to know they have kick-ass costumes. Everyone here, in fact, is a winner. Dreamgirls, though, is the only one I left actually thinking, “Damn, that could win Best Costume Design.” Oh, and I said that after Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, but it didn’t get nominated.

ART DIRECTION

Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan’s Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
The Prestige

Will Win: Dreamgirls
Should Win: Pan’s Labyrinth

As goes Costume Design, so goes Art Direction, at least in 9 of the last 11 Oscars. I see no compelling reason for that to change here. Again, it should be noted that the Art Director’s Guild went for Pan’s, but they also went for Curse (in the period category), and that didn’t even get nominated.

Even the non-fantasy sequences in Labyrinth have amazing production design. Once you throw in the rest, the other films here can’t hold this film’s jock.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Babel
The Good German
Notes on a Scandal
Pan’s Labyrinth
The Queen

Will Win: Babel
Should Win: Pan’s Labyrinth

Often this goes to a film also nominated for Best Picture, leaving us with Babel and Queen. Of the two, Babel’s the one with the BAFTA win for Best Score. Not much to go on, frankly, but it’ll have to do.

Out of all these, the only one whose score I even vaguely remember is Labyrinth, since there’s a lullaby melody that’s fairly significant, though I don’t know if that really counts.

ORIGINAL SONG

“I Need to Wake Up” - An Inconvenient Truth
“Listen” - Dreamgirls
“Love You I Do” - Dreamgirls
“Our Town” - Cars
“Patience” - Dreamgirls

Will Win: “Listen”
Should Win: “Listen”

This has become an increasingly unpredictable category of late. Who would have guessed that Eminem, Jorge Drexler and Three 6 Mafia would take home the last three awards in this category? Since there are no hip hop or latin artists on this list, I’m just going to go with the most obvious choice and say Beyonce. Dreamgirls makes three of its eight noms in this category alone, but I think the chances of it splitting its own vote are slim since anyone who’s seen the film knows “Listen” stands out (as it’s supposed to - it’s designed to balance the last half of the film against the ineligible “And I Am Telling You…”) and anyone who hasn’t seen the film associates the song with Beyonce and thinks, “Hey, Beyonce!” and votes for it unheard.

Of the pack listed here, “Listen” carries the most weight. Although, frankly, I would’ve been happier with the National Anthem of Kazakhstan or anything from the Brothers of the Head soundtrack.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

After the Wedding - Denmark
Days of Glory - Algeria
The Lives of Others - Germany
Pan’s Labyrinth - Mexico
Water - Canada

Will Win: Pan’s Labyrinth
Should Win: Pan’s Labyrinth

With 11 critics cirles wins and a BAFTA (not to mention six oscar nods total), Labyrinth is the obvious choice. Upsets have happened before, including No Man’s Land over Amelie and Nowehere in Africa over Hero and El Crimen de Padre Amaro, but they are fairly few and far between. Still, with outstanding reviews across the board and a recent limited release, The Lives of Others is a potential spoiler.

From what I’ve heard, all of these, with the exception of After the Wedding, are outstanding films. After the Wedding could be the shit, I wouldn’t know because I’ve never heard of it until now. In any case, the only one I’ve actually seen is Pan’s Labyrinth, and it blew me away, so I’m comfortable with my choice. We’ll see if I change my mind when I finally get around to seeing The Lives of Others, which hasn’t even opened yet in Philly.

In our next installment: Battle of the Turn-of-the-Century Magicians.

Region 1 DVD Releases for February 20, 2007

This week, would you like your Hugh Jackman animated or obsessed?

Babel

See for yourself why this, the third in a trilogy that director Alejandro González Iñárritu says began with Amores Perros and 21 Grams, has garnered so much awards-season praise, including the Golden Globe for Best Picture Drama. It’s now up for seven statues, including Best Picture, though the one it really deserves, in my opinion, is Best Supporting Actress for Adriana Barraza, who will break your heart as a Mexican nanny with uncannily poor judgment. Do yourself a favor and just rent all three of this director’s masterpieces, although have some Brak Show or something standing by to cheer yourself up afterwards.

Strangely, this flick seems to be going out without any special features. Rushed out the door to pump the Oscar campaign on the day the final polls close?

The Prestige

Not exactly overlooked or even underrated, this latest gem from Memento and Batman Begins helmer Chris Nolan just didn’t catch fire and was quickly forgotten in ‘06. If you didn’t catch it, it’s well worth another look. Nolan is firing on all cylinders here, co-writing with his brother Jonathan and directing a solid cast including Batman vets Christian Bale and Michael Caine, along with Hugh Jackman. As good as a Batman vs. Wolverine flick? No, but what could be?

Extras include a bunch of featurettes including one on Nikola Tesla, portrayed by David Bowie in the film.

Flushed Away

Another Hugh Jackman film that got lost in the shuffle last year (don’t worry, Happy Feet solved all that), Flushed Away is probably the most-praised but least-feted animated film this awards season. Not even scoring a Best Animated Oscar nod in spite of major kudos (including eight Annies, of which it won five), this latest effort from Wallace & Gromit animation house Aardman goes all CG, but with the basic feel of claymation intact.

Extras include 21 games and challenges. Betcha Babel doesn’t have any games or challenges, although they’d probably be pretty depressing. “Get the Mexican Nanny Back Into America” Yeah, that wouldn’t be fun.

Shut Up and Sing

Who would’ve guessed that one day The Dixie Chicks would be indie darlings? But in a year full of hot political docs, this one got as much praise, if not more, than An Inconvenient Truth. Appears to have no extras, but the cover’s pretty awesome.

For Your Consideration

Probably the worst reviewed Christopher Guest film of all time, which is too bad since it’s high time he aimed his satirical gaze at Hollywood. Still, there was talk of a Best Supporting Actress nod for Catherine O’Hara for a while there. Extras include commentary, extra footage and a poster gallery for the film-within-the-film Home for Purim.

More here.

Answer to the trivia question, what was Nic Cage’s biggest opening weekend ever? Ghost Rider. I thought I was highballing it at $93mil but it will likely hit $133mil when all is said and done.

2/23

Wide

THE NUMBER 23

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jim Carrey gets obsessed with the number 23. Goes nuts.

WILL IT SUCK?
Carrey’s pretty versatile, so I feel he can pull off a thriller, no prob. Joel Schumacher, on the other hand, makes about one good film a decade, and he’s already done his for the 2000’s (Tigerland). Danny Huston and Virginia Madsen should make for a good supporting cast, at least. Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Zodiac will be a bit of an issue the following week, but this won’t lack for revenue. Besides, it’s coming out on February 23rd. Who can resist that synergy? $47mil.

RENO 911!: MIAMI

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Title pretty much says it all.

WILL IT SUCK?
Never seen Reno 911!, but I hear good things. That having been said, the TV writers behind the show have shown some general suck when writing movies (The Pacifier, Night at the Museum, Herbie: Fully Loaded).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Show has a decent enough following. $20mil.

THE ASTRONAUT FARMER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Farmer decides to build a manned rocket in his backyard.

WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of a silly title and even sillier poster, the early buzz is good and why not, you’ve got the Polish brothers writing and directing, a solid cast with Billy Bob Thornton, Virginia Madsen and J.K. Simmons and a premise that worked well for October Sky.

Early buzz is mixed, but generally positive.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Crowded weekend. $18mil.

THE ABANDONNED

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman travels to a remote village and unlocks deadly secrets from her past blah, blah, blah. No more evil ghost/troubled spirit movies! I mean it. Just a one month hiatus is all I ask.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. One of the writers directed and co-wrote the cult classic Hardware.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think folks are going to be all horror’d out. $2mil.

Limited

AMAZING GRACE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Story of the abolition movement in England.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed with audiences more on board than critics. Michael Apted stays busy, directing what is, on IMDB at least, his best film other than his 7 Up series while Dirty Pretty Things scribe Steven Knight contributes the screenplay. Supporting cast is solid, with Albert Finney as the man who actually wrote “Amazing Grace” and Michael Gambon and Ciaran Hinds as your requisite bad guys. Also along for the ride is Youssou N’Dour, whom you may remember from such Peter Gabriel albums as So or from, you know, his massively successful recording career in Africa.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Walden Media knows what it’s doing. $8mil.

GLASTONBURY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about the most famous music festival you’ve never heard of.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good, and you could do worse than to have David Bowie, James Brown, Bjork and Joe Strummer on the ticket. Directed by music video helmer Julien Temple, who also has Joe Strummer: The Future Is Unwritten coming out this year.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if people in the States had heard of this festival, music docs are a hard sell. $500,000.

GRAY MATTERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Brother and sister fall for the same woman.

WILL IT SUCK?
Halfway-decent cast (Heather Graham and Tom Cavanaugh are the brother and sister, Bridget Moynahan is the love interest and Alan Cumming and Molly Shannon are the wacky best friends), interesting premise and sucky, sucky trailer. Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I would have actually gone with a wide release on this one. This low under the radar, it doesn’t stand a chance. $1mil.

Next Week: David Fincher. He’s how movies are done.

Dr. Wife and I are on our honeymoon.  We’ll return you to your regularly scheduled blogging next week.  Toodles!

Eddie Murphy has two places on this week’s top ten, one for Norbit, one for Dreamgirls. If it’s any comfort, they’ll probably both make about the same amount of money. Shrek the Third will bury them both.

2/16

Wide

GHOST RIDER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bitchinest tattoo ever becomes a superhero.

WILL IT SUCK?
Did you like Daredevil? Same writer/director. First review out of the gate is positive.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if fanboys expect this to suck, many will still go just to confirm that it sucks. $93mil.

BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Chronicles of Terabithia

WILL IT SUCK?
Here’s the best bit of Terabithia trivia. The director (Gabor Csupo) was apparently the inspiration for the look and voice of Dr. Nick Riviera on The Simpsons, for which he was a writer at the time. Anyhoo, this is based on a Newberry Award-winning book and one of the screenwriters worked on The Dangerous Lives of Altar Boys so I’d say this has a shot at not sucking, in spite of smacking of Narnia-baiting.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real competition, but Walden/Disney needs to dial up the ad campaign if they want to turn this into a blockbuster. $71mil.

BREACH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Robert Hanssen story.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is from Shattered Glass writer/director Billy Ray, who should be familiar with profiles in duplicity. Casting is excellent, with Chris Cooper as Hanssen and Ryan Phillipe as the agent tasked with bringing him down. Dennis Haysbert, Laura Linney and Gary Cole are thrown in for good measure. As if that weren’t enough, Tak Fujimoto (everything from Sixth Sense to Ferris Bueller’s Day Off) is doing the cinematography. Early buzz is gooood.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s a crowded field, and this is being advertised about as well as Shattered Glass was. $11mil.

TYLER PERRY’S DADDY’S LITTLE GIRLS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A Tyler Perry flick without all the cross-dressing.

WILL IT SUCK?
If you like the Tyler Perry, this looks to be right in line with his other work, although this is the first of his films that didn’t start out as a play.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Norbit’s a bit of an issue, but there’s no reason to believe this won’t do just as well as any other Perry flick. $64mil.

MUSIC & LYRICS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hugh Grant and Drew Barrymore try to write a hit and break the one rule of songwriting - don’t fall in love. Or, don’t write death metal in a major key. One of those.

WILL IT SUCK?
Am I the only one who thought Music and Lyrics by… was a better title? Anyhoo, this is from the writer/director of Two Weeks Notice (which should be Two Weeks’ Notice, dammit!), who also wrote the Miss Congeneality movies and Forces of Nature, so I’m going to try to not let the funny trailer get my hopes up.

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Surprisingly, this doesn’t seem to be getting much awareness in spite of heavy marketing. Still, the Valentine’s Day opening should help. $43mil.

Limited

DAYS OF GLORY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Basically one long guilt trip for the French. North Africans help liberate the French during WWII and then proceed to be shat upon by the country they just liberated. Oh, those wacky French!

WILL IT SUCK?
What is it with movies about injustices in the French army and “..of Glory“? Follows Paths of Glory and precedes Ungrateful French Bastards of Glory, one imagines. Early buzz is great. Again, a contender for Best Foreign. Also won an acting ensemble award at Cannes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Lives of Others has the better shot at an Oscar, but both will probably lose to Pan’s Labyrinth. Either way, not much to pump up receipts. $1mil.

CLOSE TO HOME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two female Israeli soldiers befriend each other.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Did well on the festival circuit.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a good time of year to be a foreign film without an Oscar nod. $100,000.

THE LAST SIN EATER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Appalachian community in the 1850’s gets saved.

WILL IT SUCK?
Don’t usually go in for these Christian-themed flicks (this comes from the new Fox/Faith studio brand), which is strange since I’m, you know, Christian. This is directed by Michale Landon’s son, who’s been making Christian films for a while now, and stars Henry Thomas and Louise “Where’s she been since Cuckoo’s Nest?” Fletcher.

Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
At this point, the Christian film industry has developed tiers. I’m guessing this will fall into the “will do better on DVD” tier. $1mil.

Next Week: You know what? I’m starting to notice the number 23. It’s the number of the room they kept Carl in on Lost, and it’s the number of people Neo was supposed to select to build the next Zion in The Matrix Reloaded. I’m sorry, did I just blow your mind?

To be frank, I felt much more confident about last year’s picks. But I think that’ll make this year more fun. Once again, we start with some categories that, no matter what the year, I’m pretty much making it up as I go.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

The Danish Poet
Lifted
The Little Matchgirl
Maestro
No Time for Nuts

Will Win: The Little Matchgirl
Should Win: Lifted

Though this category is completely random, I’ve noticed a slightly moody trend of late, and the closest one to that is The Little Matchgirl, with its subdued hues and quiet, pretty, sad (and kind of dull) story.

I’ve only seen 22 seconds of Lifted, but it’s already funnier (and better) than what I’ve seen of the other (admittedly strong) contenders here. That’s Pixar for ya.

Check out the Oscar animation showcase here.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Binta and the Great Idea
Eramos Pocos
Helmer & Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story

Will Win: West Bank Story
Should Win: West Bank Story

As usual, I have no freakin’ clue how the Academy makes their decisions here. I just think that if I got a ballot and hadn’t seen any of these films, I’d vote for the one with the coolest title.

Having seen at least the trailer for this flick (and bits and pieces of the others - thank you YouTube/iFilm) I can tell you that the premise is just as enticing as the title. From the synopsis, “A musical comedy set in the fast-paced, fast-food world of competing falafel stands on the West Bank.” I’m sold.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands

Will Win: Two Hands
Should Win: The Blood of Yingzhou District

Normally, I’d say go for the most heartwrenching, serious flick on the list, but the Academy confounded me last year by picking what appeared to be the least disturbing of the bunch. So, this year, I’m going with the personal triumph story, propped up by the fact that it’s co-directed by Nathaniel Kahn, a feature doc nominee in 2003 for My Architect.

If you’ve seen my top ten, you know I was all about the heartwrenching tragedy in ‘06, plus I don’t think at this point you can really have too many films about AIDS as a global crisis, so a doc about kids in China being shunned for having the disease pretty much fits the bill.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

Will Win: An Inconvenient Truth
Should Win: Jesus Camp

The box office and critics circles agree, An Inconvenient Truth is the doc of the year. Being the third higest grossing doc of all time and winning 19 critics circle awards separates this from the pack by about a mile. The Nobel Peace Prize nod for Gore doesn’t hurt.

The only film I’ve seen here is An Inconvenient Truth. It’s a good doc, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not a great doc. Given the passionate response I’ve heard from viewers of Jesus Camp, I’m guessing it’s even more compelling. For my money, Why We Fight was the best doc of the year.

SOUND EDITING

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
Should Win: Letters From Iwo Jima

Once again, I’ll go through my horrendously oversimplified explanation of the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. This year, I’ll try to do it with one word each. Sound Editing: Post-production. Sound Mixing: Production. Sound plausible?

This award often goes to your Pearl Harbors or your Matrixes so I feel comfortable calling it for the sixth highest-grossing film of all time.

For me, the best post sound had to come from Pan’s Labrynth or Children of Men, but since those aren’t available, I’ll give it to Letters, which has the most memorable use of sound of any of these. It’s one scene in particular, and I won’t go into specifics in case you’re eating or something, but suffice it to say it’s the only scene in any of these where I remember the sound as well as the image. (For those of you who have seen it, think of things that go boom in a cave.)

SOUND MIXING

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Will Win: Dreamgirls
Should Win: Dreamgirls

This usually goes to a Best Picture winner, or at least nominee. Since none of those are available, we’ll go with what everyone thought would be a Best Picture winner or nominee. Also, in the last four years, musicals have won twice (if you count Ray as a musical, which you probably shouldn’t).

Out of all the movies here, Dreamgirls is the only one in which I remember sound playing a prominent role (and that’s probably the logic most Academy members will use, hence my prediction).

In our next installment: It’s about time somebody got an award for making Gong Li’s boobs “pop.”

Region 1 DVD Releases for February 6, 2007

Both Michel Gondry and Clint Eastwood came out with two films in 2006. What did you do?

Flags of Our Fathers

Don’t let the fact that the psuedo-sequel to this film, Letters From Iwo Jima, got all the awards-season love make you think of this film as its ugly stepsister. It’s more like Letters‘ not-quite-as-unbelievably-gorgeous, but-still-really-really-hot stepsister. Eastwood once again brings artful restraint to the telling of a violent tale, painting a complex portrait of heroes who wish to be considered anything but.

Strangely, this DVD does not appear to have any extras.

The Science of Sleep

One of the most overlooked films of ‘06, Eternal Sunshine helmer Michel Gondry’s foray into the world of dreams and one man’s sometimes endearing, sometimes irritating refusal to commit to a world outside of them ends up being one of the most imaginitive-yet-unflinching character portraits I’ve seen. It’s also funny as balls. As usual, Gael Garcia Bernal deserves an Oscar (or at least a nod) for his efforts.

Extras include a featurette on the creator of the film’s many animals and accessories.

Hollywoodland

What started out looking like the poor man’s Black Dahlia ended up getting better reviews, if worse box office. It even earned Ben Affleck a Golden Globe nod. There’s something you never hear. Extras include a featurette on recreating old Hollywood.

Running With Scissors

Speaking of unlikely Golden Globe nods, one went to Annette Bening for her performance in this film. Not unlikely because of Bening, but because of the film’s generally lousy reviews. Extras include “A Personal Memoir by Augusten Burroughs,” which is what I thought the film was.

The Grudge 2: Unrated Director’s Cut

Bringing in Amber Tamblyn failed to breathe any life into this sequel, which basically offered up more hiding places for creepy albino Japanese kids. Maybe if God spoke to Amber during the film, saying things like, “Look out for that creepy albino Japanese kid!” Just a thought. Extras on this cut include footage deemed “too scary for theaters” by the back of the DVD package.

More here.