I never thought I’d say this, but Alvin and the Chipmunks has crossed $140mil. In other news, if you think that Philadelphians won’t turn out en masse to see a midnight-only screening of There Will Be Blood, you’d be wrong. The tickets would sell out before you got there and you’d be wish-I’d-come-to-the-box-office-yesterday wrong.

1/4

Wide

ONE MISSED CALL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Yet another Japanese horror remake where technology kills your ass.

WILL IT SUCK?
Other than The Ring, can you name one good American J-Horror adaptation?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Trying to pull a When a Stranger Calls no-competition January horror release. After the year that horror had in 2007, I don’t know if that will work. $23mil.

Limited

THE KILLING OF JOHN LENNON

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Read the title again.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but this did win a Special Jury Prize at Tribeca.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a lot of competition, unless you count all the Oscar contenders finally going into wide release. $750,000.

Next Week: Can’t stop the Uwe Boll.

The MPAA rejected the poster for Alex Gibney’s new Iraq doc on the basis of a hooded figure representing torture. At least that’s the assessment they had when they rejected the original Road to Guantanamo poster:

“the burlap bag over the prisoner’s head depicted torture, which was not appropriate for children to see.”

Here we are arguing over whether or not waterboarding is torture, and the MPAA raises a red flag when a hood goes over someone’s head, much less enough water to almost drown them.

I suddenly find myself wanting to put the MPAA in charge of our foreign policy.

For Christmas I made a music video for Dr. Wife. (Seems only fair, what with her buying me a camcorder and all.) I wrote this song, “Pledge,” for her a while ago for Valentine’s Day. She had the star of the video created for me as a surprise wedding gift. After I showed her the video, she really wanted me to post it, so here goes…

So, I meant to post this on Monday but, you know, holidays and such. Anyhoo, it makes the “will it suck?” part easier to predict. In the interest of brevity, here are some one-word reviews of the movies I saw over the break:

I’m Not There - Brilliant

Charlie Wilson’s War - Perfect

Juno - Funny

Sweeney Todd - Bloody

12/25

Wide

THE WATER HORSE: LEGEND OF THE DEEP

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Free Nessie

WILL IT SUCK?
The director may have done My Dog Skip and the writer may have done Chocolat, but the trailer looks like straight-up cheese. It doesn’t help that the monster looks like the one that Mr. Burns found.

That having been said, looks like the reviews are generally positive.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nicely distanced from Golden Compass, and not much else to take your kids to on Christmas Day. $55mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Based on a novel by the same guy who wrote Babe, but no.

ALIEN VS. PREDATOR: REQUIEM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
I’m sorry. I couldn’t hear you over my weeping.

WILL IT SUCK?
Writing about this makes my fingers sad. They got the writer of that Shaft remake to do the screenplay. Now, if a predator and an alien teamed up to solve a crime, I would totally see that movie. Especially if they were both played by Samuel L. Jackson. “Yes, those colonial marines deserved to die, and I hope they burn in hell!”

What few reviews there are indicate elevated degrees of suckage.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sadly, this is on people’s radar and there’s very little genre competition. $40mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Sadly, this is Shareeka Epps’ follow-up to Half Nelson.

THE GREAT DEBATERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember the Debate Team

WILL IT SUCK?
The second directorial effort of Denzel Washington. He stars again, this time alongside Forest Whitaker. And, yes, I’m happy that you can have two Oscar-winning black actors in the same movie without having to search high and low for options. There’s totally, like, four now.

Denzel did a decent job with Antwone Fisher, but it remains to be seen if the screenwriter behind both the Darkman and The Birds sequels can adapt the true story of the Wiley College debate team.

Judging by the reviews, he really, really can.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Denzel rocks this historical shit. $77mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Most of Denzel’s heat will probably be on American Gangster, if it even gets a nod (yes, I’m starting to hedge that bet). It should be noted, however, that both got Best Pic Globe nods.

Limited

THE BUCKET LIST

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Title refers to a list of things you want to do before you kick the bucket. Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman are two old fogies who try to do them.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as tolerably sappy. I’ve lost faith in director Rob Reiner so many times now that it’s hard for me to take this seriously. With more precincts reporting, this has gone from tolerably sappy to just “meh.”
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably the strongest leads of any indie this week. $20mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy seems incapable of not giving Jack a nod, but they did it with The Departed, and I can tell you right now this will get worse reviews.

PERSEPOLIS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Animated biopic about a young girl’s coming of age in Iran.

WILL IT SUCK?
The kind of movie that critics praise with terms like “ever made.” That, plus a Grand Jury Prize at Cannes lessens the suck risk significantly.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Best case scenario is a Triplets of Belleville-style reception. $5mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The film for Ratatouille to beat for Best Animated (though France is submitting it for Best Foreign, as well).

THERE WILL BE BLOOD (12/26)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An oil prospector (Daniel Day Lewis) comes to turn-of-the-century Texas to strike it rich and chew scenery.

WILL IT SUCK?
Critics and audiences are impressed (and, in some cases, perplexed) by Paul Thomas Anderson’s first flick in five years. IMDB users hail it as his best.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A lot of competition, but anybody paying attention to the indie field is going to put this at the top of their list. $22mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Look for just about every category.

THE ORPHANAGE (12/28)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Horror film set in an abandoned orphanage.

WILL IT SUCK?
Seems to be securing a place of prestige in the modern wave of Spanish-language horror, with favorable comparisons to one of the co-producer’s films, something called Pan’s Labyrinth.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sadly, a lot more people will probably go see the English-language remake of One Missed Call the following week. At least it’s already a hit in Spain. $1miil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It’s not THAT favorably compared to Pan’s Labyrinth.

Next Week: Ring in the new year with a J-Horror remake about cell phones that will probably suck as bad as that pun.

12. The Untouchables - The Station Steps

“Take him.”

As with #29, the key to this pivotal sequence from Brian De Palma’s 1987 gangland epic is anticipation. He pulls a similar trick with a sequence at the Canadian border earlier in the film, but the payoff here is far more lyrical.

De Palma is the type of director to lovingly craft a sequence. He conducts this one like an opera. In fact, each scene in the film reaches beyond being connective tissue for the larger plot and survives on its own as a self-contained story, part of the reason this sequence achieves more than just being pretty gunplay.

It doesn’t hurt that the score for this opera is provided by the great Ennio Morricone. Building from an innocent lullaby to a chilling adagio, the music seems more fit for a horror film, but has the unexpected effect of imbuing the shootout with a certain poetry.

Part of what makes this scene so effective is the moment of release. After letting the tension build as we wait with Ness for the bad guys to arrive, De Palma gives us an angle on Ness’ priceless reaction to seeing broken-nose-guy, who he knows will recognize him. Costner puts on a flicker of panic that hardens into resolve before he wordlessly blows the guy away and starts the slo-mo shootout to end all slo-mo shootouts.

The sequence itself is a collection of tableaus as much as the film is a collection of vignettes. The composition of each shot in this sequence is some of the most sumptuous you’ll see in any set piece.

Part of the beauty of the composition is the sparseness of the station. This isn’t just a factor of the late-night setting. A deliberate choice was made to create sparse compositions throughout the film, to emphasize the smaller population and more open spaces of the period.

Cinematographer Stephen H. Burum decided to achieve this effect by emphasizing negative space, and you get plenty of that here - adding to the grand oil painting feel of each frame.

This is De Palma as a master of his camera. He even uses zooms effectively. By the late 80’s, no one knew how to use those anymore, or even bothered (today it’s only done ironically, unless you’re Sidney Lumet and you actually know what you’re doing). Here he uses the technique in a flawless reveal when Stone enters the fray.

Once again, the more expensive sequence would have been lamer. Originally, this whole thing was to unfold on a stopped train, but finding a period train proved to be cost-prohibitive.

All that being said, this is a straight-up rip-off of the Odessa steps sequence in Battleship Potemkin. There are segments that are practically shot for shot. And the sailors just hammer it home (it’s a Russian sailor rebellion that gets things going in Potemkin).

Is it fair to call it an homage as well? Little from column A, little from column B. It’s no different than De Palma’s relationship to Hitchcock. But, to be honest, I find this sequence more compelling, due respect to the co-inventor of the montage.

Maybe if Eisenstein had included a slo-mo gun toss.

See also: All of Battleship Potemkin, the climax of The Wild Bunch, “Somewhere Over the Rainbow” sequence in Face/Off.

Next: Whoah.

I Am Legend writes itself into the history books with the largest December open ever - $76.5 million. Alvin and the Chipmunks has the biggest opening ever for a movie with “Chipmunks” in the title - $45 million. And the horse I backed, Golden Compass, crashes and burns in week two.

12/21

Wide

NATIONAL TREASURE: BOOK OF SECRETS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
More treasure hunting with Nicolas Cage and Friends.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’ve gotta admit, I rather liked the original, and they’ve basically brought everyone back in front of and behind the camera (while adding Helen Mirren and Ed Harris), so I’m psyched. Don’t look at me.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not the easiest weekend, but this is the frontrunner. $140mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Bruckheimer’s magic is to add Academy Award-winning actors to action films, not win them.

WALK HARD: THE DEWEY COX STORY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Musical Biopic Movie

WILL IT SUCK?
Normally I would dismiss this out of hand as an especially narrow attempt at an Airplane-style parody, but Judd Apatow is all over this. He wrote it, and Undeclared and Freaks and Geeks alum Jake Kasdan (yeah, I didn’t know he worked on those, either) directed and co-wrote. And, as usual, we have the Apatow Players making for a kick-ass cast.

Early buzz is sick.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has the advantage of being the lone wacky comedy of the season. $71mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Apatow love will probably go to Knocked Up, if anything.

SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Barbershop, but with fewer black people and more dead people.

WILL IT SUCK?
Great cast: Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, Anthony Head and Sacha Baron Cohen. They didn’t skimp on the screenplay, either (John Logan of The Aviator, The Last Samurai, Gladiator and RKO 281). But the main thing is Tim Burton. Harry Knowles is already calling it his best since Ed Wood.

Early buzz is fantastic.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it weren’t opening against National Treasure, better. $54mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Burton has been dissed so many times before, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that this will be his Departed.

P.S. I LOVE YOU

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Gerard Butler (300) leaves messages for the woman (Hilary Swank) he widowed. Unfortunately, they are not “Madness!?! This! Is! The AFTERLIFE!” or “Tonight, we dine in hell! I’ll pick up the tab, sweetie.”

WILL IT SUCK?
Swank must love her some Richard LaGravenese. She starred in his Freedom Writers earlier this year. He co-wrote and helmed this one, as well. As I remember, Writers got a better-than-expected reception, so that may bode well. Also, it has James Marsters (you know, Spike), so it has to be good.

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No direct competition, but National Treasure will tug on that demo. Also, Swank is an unproven quantity in the romcom space. $37mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A few winners up in here, but no.

CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember those guys in Afghanistan we’re fighting right now? Funny story. We armed them. Here’s how.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but not “Holy Shit, Give It The Oscar Now” good. Admittedly, expectations are kind of high given the combo of Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (not to mention Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams) being helmed by Mike Nichols and speaking Sorkin (he’s in West Wing territory here, not Studio 60 - or, to put it another way, he’s not “STANDING IN THE MIDDLE OF A FIELD IN AFGHANISTAN!!!”).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Moved to get out of the way of a glut of Christmas Day releases, and ran into a glut of pre-Christmas weekend releases. $66mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Probably not quite as many nods as you’d expect from a Nichols/Sorkin/Hanks/Roberts ticket, though the Golden Globe nods won’t hurt.

Limited

STEEP

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Unlike all you Mountain Dew-swilling posers out there, real extreme skiers parachute off of mountains.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz on this sports doc is mixed. Critics no, audiences yes. From a guy who’s done a couple of Peter Jennings reports on aliens and Kennedy. If he does a doc on aliens and Kennedy extreme skiing, I’m there.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A strangely quiet weekend in indieville, but the market will already be so glutted with the second and third frames of major indie releases that it won’t matter. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not so many extreme sports fans in the Academy.

Next Week: Christmas comes on a Tuesday, technically a part of the above weekend, but I’m not posting, like, fifty movies in this week’s preview, so I’ll post the rest on Monday.

It’s my first time. Be gentle.

Can’t believe I’m not the first search result for “ZimZam” on YouTube.

Also, my I Am Legend review is up.

With six critics circles and the NBR and Gotham chiming in, it’s time for another completely premature look at the Oscar race. All my lamenting about the Coen Bros. getting shut out might be hasty. Will we, in fact, go back to 1999, the last time the NBR picked the winner? Right now I’d call No Country a lock for a nod, and one of two front-runners for a win (with There Will Be Blood).

Director breaks down pretty much the same way, with the Coen Bros. taking on relative newcomer Paul Thomas Anderson, but the big win would be a nod for Tim Burton, which is looking more and more like a possibility. I can remember when all three of these guys were the wacky outsiders. Now they’re the men to beat.

I thought NBR’s call on George Clooney in Michael Clayton was a fluke, but it’s starting to look like a dead heat between him and Daniel Day Lewis in Blood for Actor. Meanwhile, Away From Her’s Julie Christie is looking to sew up the Actress category early with La Vie en Rose’s Marion Cotillard as an also-ran.

No one is surprised about the plethora of Best Supporting Actor plaudits for Javier Bardem in No Country, but Casey Affleck is getting some Assassination of Jesse James love, too. And out of nowhere, Amy Ryan is turning into a lock for Best Supporting Actress for Gone, Baby, Gone.

Original Screenplay is a free-for-all, with Juno and The Savages looking like the only movies with any traction. No Country for Old Men is as good a guess as any for Adapted.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly would be a lock at this point for Best Foreign, if France hadn’t chosen to submit Persepolis instead. It might still get love for Best Cinematography, but it’ll have to get past Blood first.

No End in Sight and Sicko look like they might slug it out for Best Doc, but I’d prefer to see the former win.

Ratatouille and Persepolis will do the same for Best Animated, leaving the door open for The Simpsons Movie to win off their split votes. I’m sorry. Did I just wish that out loud?

We’ll see what the Globe nods have to say about all this later today.

Update: That was fast.

13. Back to the Future - Back to the Future (yes, the chapter is actually called that)

“Time circuits on. Flux capacitor…fluxing.”

There is a type of action sequence that requires no violence, only problems. The climactic set piece of Robert Zemeckis’ 1985 classic sets a difficult, precise goal and then makes it increasingly harder for its heroes to achieve.

Never before has an action sequence been infused with such an intractable sense of urgency. It is the domain of time travel films to be centered around a particular event, but the moment here is so exact that it will literally never happen again.

This quality takes advantage of the film’s theme. The movie opens with the most tangible representation of time - clocks. Clocks appear in two crucial locations in this sequence. A big one with Doc Brown and a little one with Marty, tracking the parallel narratives of the piece.

There is a cohesion to all of this: clocks represent time, a precise moment in time (tied to and noted by a clock) is required for their plot to work. I’ve always found it ironic that action cinema rarely takes advantage of visual cues to punctuate theme, since it is, by its very nature, the most visual genre. But Back to the Future gets its visual motif on without hesitation.

On a gut level, the sequence works even without that artistry, since Zemeckis finds little touches to make a horrible situation even worse. Like the cable ripping through Doc Brown’s pants or the cord coming loose on the other end, even after Marty’s started his run and there couldn’t possibly be time for another obstacle. (See the “Are you fucking kidding me?” school of tension in #26.)

The musical cues also do their part. As Marty is driving up and we cut back and forth between him and Doc Brown, the music acts to hurry Brown on. The triumphant theme, by Alan Silvestri, keeps cutting out when the image cuts back to Brown, as if to say “ready yet?” with the silence answering “nope.”

This is a case where the budget forced a better concept. Originally, the sequence was supposed to take place at a bomb test site in Nevada, an atomic explosion being the only way to generate the necessary power.

That sequence was deemed too expensive, so Zemeckis and co-writer/producer Bob Gale came up with this instead. The only reference to the original plan can be seen in the marquee on the theater behind Doc Brown at the end advertising The Atomic Kid, a Mickey Rooney film that takes place on a nuclear test site.

Missing the beginning, but you get the point…

See also: The rest of Back to the Future, the end of Romancing the Stone, all of Who Framed Roger Rabbit? (and, of course, Harold Lloyd in Safety Last! but we’ve mentioned that one already).

Next: 62 years is a long time to wait to rip off a classic.

So my brilliant idea for a panel was ultimately rejected by SXSW. I’m mixed with a weird combination of disappointment and relief, because by the time I found out, I would not have had a lot of time to put it together.

In other news, I Am Legend is good but not great (I’ll elaborate more on Friday). Atonement is really good but isn’t nearly getting the awards love everyone expected it to and, frankly, that’s appropriate. Like Will Smith’s performance in Legend, I’d give it a Golden Globe nod but not an Oscar nod.

More on pre-Oscar hysteria (or a lack thereof) soon.