Here’s my Oscar Wrap-Up…

We’ll get more into the Oscars later, but for now all I’ll say is “Tilda Swinton? Really?” Nothing against Swinton or her performance, it’s just a surprise is all.

And congrats to Barry Levy, my buddy Kevin’s bud who penned the script for this weekend’s top box office grosser, Vantage Point.

2/29

Wide

THE OTHER BOLEYN GIRL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
King Henry VIII (Eric Bana) has to choose between Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson. Poor baby.

WILL IT SUCK?
Penned by The Queen and Last King of Scotland scribe Peter Morgan, so pay attention.

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Shoulda been a platform release. $32mil.

SEMI-PRO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Will Ferrell basketball film.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’d complain about the repetitiveness of Will Ferrell forming his own sports spoof subgenre if it wasn’t such a damn funny subgenre. This time Old School and Road Trip scribe Scott Armstrong takes a crack at the formula. As usual, the supporting cast is sublime: Woody Harrelson, Maura Tierney, Andy Richter, Will Arnett, David Koechner, Jackie Earle Haley and Rob Corddry.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
10,000 B.C. might be an issue the following week, but this should be one of the biggest releases of the month. $119mil.

PENELOPE

(Delayed from 2006)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Chick has to find true love in order to get rid of her pig nose.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, which is a good thing since this has been delayed since time immemorial. Good cast, with Christina Ricci as Penelope, and Peter Dinklage, James McAvoy, Catherine O’Hara, Richard E. Grant and Nick Frost also up in there.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Could be overshadowed by The Other Boleyn Girl. Again, a limited, Juno-style release might have been wiser. $9mil.

Limited

CHICAGO 10

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about the Chicago 10, with re-enactments done A Scanner Darkly-style.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and well it should be. This is from the writer/director of The Kid Stays in the Picture, and early IMDB ratings have it as being even better.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Unlikely to do much better than Kid. $2mil.

CITY OF MEN

(Delayed from January)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
More drugs and kids doing what they shouldn’t in Brazil.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Directed by Paulo Morelli, who also directed eps of the TV series on which this is based, itself a spin-off of the Fernando Meirelles classic, City of God. Screenwriter Elena Soarez also wrote for the series, and scripted the lauded House of Sand.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If this were an actual sequel to City of God with Meirelles directing, it might be able to compete with what’s coming. $1mil.

BONNEVILLE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Oscar-winning woman (Jessica Lange) goes on a road trip with her Oscar-winning/nominated friends (Kathy Bates, Joan Allen) to deliver her husbands ashes to his bitchy, non-Oscar-nominated daughter (Christine Baranski) in an effort to keep her house.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is crappy, but if you want to spend $2 grand to watch it before anyone else, they’re premiering it on Princess Cruise Lines.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Much more buzzy Mrs. Pettigrew Lives for a Day appeals to a similar demo next week. $1mil.

Next Week: Since you asked so nicely, Hollywood is giving you a second Martin Lawrence film in as many months. It’s either that or mammoths, people!

If you’re looking for potential upsets, focus on the women…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

WILL WIN: Amy Ryan
SHOULD WIN: Amy Ryan

This is probably the tightest race of the night. On the surface, it looks like Amy Ryan should be a no-brainer. 18 critics circle wins, including a BFCA. But wait, who got the Golden Globe? Cate Blanchett, along with 6 other wins. And she’s playing a dude! That’s Oscar gold! But wait a minute? Who won BAFTA? Tilda Swinton, as a part of her 5 wins.

All this would be enough withouy Ruby Dee throwing off the curve completely by winning SAG, indicating the will of the largest voting block of the Academy, who has only disagreed with SAG 3 of the last 10 times in this category. Not to mention she represents the “career award” this year (and, by proxy, her late husband’s career).

Even the oddsmakers are in a tizzy, with many giving Ryan 2/1 odds against Blanchett’s 5/4. And Dee’s odds are all over the place. Ultimately, I believe “Cryin’ Ryan’s” momentum will overpower her contenders. But just barely. Blanchett already has her supporting gold from The Aviator, Swinton is not what people remember about Clayton and Dee will probably end up being the 4th time in 11 years the Academy has gone another way (but I consider her the greatest spoiler, not Blanchett).

Of course, it would be awesome if Saoirse Ryan upset them all.

As far as “should,” Ryan gives a pivotal performance in Gone Baby Gone. If she doesn’t work, the film doesn’t work. And the film works spectacularly.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

WILL WIN: Javier Bardem
SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem

By contrast to Best Supporting Actress, the Best Supporting Actor category has been decided for quite some time now. We can pretend that Casey Affleck has a shot with his 5 critics circle wins and second-best 10/1 odds. But that would be a lie. So would Hal Holbrook’s dark horse career win premise, even if he is the oldest actor ever nominated in this category. Didn’t help Gloria Whats-her-face. Not gonna help him. Javier’s 28 wins (including the Globes, BAFTA, BFCA and SAG) and 1/12 odds pretty much sew it up.

Part of the reason this really is a no-brainer is that it’s an iconic performance. What’s more, it demonstrates the value of restraint. Bardem has said that the effectiveness of his character comes primarily from the other characters’ reactions to his character. He just has to sit back and be creepy.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

WILL WIN: Julie Christie
SHOULD WIN: Marion Cotillard

Pretty much a three-way race between Christie, Cotillard and Page. Christie already has an award for 1965’s Darling, but it’s not clear if anyone actually remembers that to hold it against her. Juno is the only film here to cross the $100 million mark and Page has been rocking the publicity tour. Cotillard beat Page for the comedy/musical Globe (with Christie taking the statue for drama).

Here, the SAG award might be the best indicator. Unlike Dee, who won out of nowhere, Christie’s Actor came at the tail end of a string of critical plaudits (16 in all) and oddsmakers favor her for the most part at 1/2 against against Cotillard’s 2/1 or Page’s 7/1.

I’d say the same three capture my attention for “should” (with the caveat that I haven’t seen the other two). All three give fantastic performances, and not to mention they do this in a year full of memorable leading ladies. I’d include Angelina Jolie, Tang Wei and Carice van Houten in this list. Ultimately, though, and maybe because it’s the showiest performance (total transformation and all) I’m compelled to give it to Cotillard.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis

We could pretend that Clooney’s got a shot with his 5 wins and 10/1 odds (pretty much the same as Depp’s) and I’d love to hear his speech, but let’s be honest with ourselves. Daniel Day-Lewis drank the entire awards season milkshake. He drank it up. 25 wins total, including a BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe and SAG statue along the way.

I wouldn’t call his performance as iconic as Bardem’s, but it’s pretty damn close. And, obviously, it’s quotable and easily imitated, two key aspects of any memorable performance. But, as with any great Day-Lewis performance, which is most of them, he really finds his character’s pain and lets us in on that. The empathy that generates, especially when you consider some of his nastier roles, is remarkable.

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

WILL WIN: Joel & Ethan Coen
SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson

Is it gonna make for awkward family dinners that Jason Reitman has a nod his second film out but his dad, who directed Ghostbusters and Stripes, has never been nominated?
To look at their 22 wins so far, including a BFCA, BAFTA and DGA award, the Coen Brothers are on their way to long overdue recognition as directors. (The Academy figured out the Brothers knew how to write screenplays back when they gave them a statue for Fargo in ‘97.)

PTA is the other old man of indie film in this fight, although by Coen Brothers standards, he’s still a youngin’. For my money, though, he directed the better film. And though No Country shows growth and mastery by the pair, Blood demonstrates unprecedented range. Anderson seems to have incorporated equal parts Spielberg and Altman into his visual language while achieving even rawer performances in spite of working outside the safety zone of his usual stable of actors.

BEST PICTURE

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

WILL WIN: No Country for Old Men
SHOULD WIN: There Will Be Blood

Most signs point to Country. 24 wins, including BFCA and the Producers Guild. Oddsmakers like it, too, with most of them giving it 1/3. That having been said, let’s not forget that Atonement won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. Let’s not forget the momentum and box office of Juno. Let’s not forget Blood’s 5 wins.

Actually, you know what? Yes. Let’s forget them. No Country will win. It’s been a favorite since awards season began and nothing has really changed.

For the second year in a row, the only film from my top ten to make it into the final five is my number four pick. There Will Be Blood astounds with the potency of its political/religious allegory (it’s the year’s best non-doc about Iraq), the evolution of PTA’s direction and the power of the characters’ journeys. I don’t think I’ve been more impressed with an established director’s work all year.

In which I actually say a Michael Bay film should win an Oscar…

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers

Now, 300 didn’t come out in 2007, right? Because I’m sure if it had, it would be in this category seeing as it was one of the most visually sumptuous and groundbreaking FX achievements of that or any other year. It would be silly, really, to nominate anything else before it, especially if the effects in this hypothetical movie that replaced 300 were subpar in some way, like, I don’t know, having polar bears that occasionally look really fake or something. Never happen.

I guess I can’t complain too much. The Visual Effects Society ignored 300, too, but at least they acknowledged Harry Potter. They also loved them some Transformers, and seeing as this is the one aspect pretty much every Academy voter can say they liked about the third-highest-grossing film of the year, I’d say it’s got a good shot.

Of the nominated flicks, I’d say Transformers has the most consistently convincing FX, and that opening sequence alone is worth the price of admission. Say what you will about his range, Michael Bay knows how to blow shit up.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up

Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille

First, let me bitch one last time about The Simpsons Movie not making it past Surf’s Up. There. I’m over it.

There’s no real contest here. Critics agree. Audiences agree. Yadda, yadda, yadda. Chalk another one up for Pixar.

I enjoyed Ratatouille thoroughly and consider it Top Shelf Pixar, but I haven’t actually seen Persepolis, and I have the feeling it’s the kind of movie that could make a serious dent. So put an asterisk next to my “should.” Go ahead. I’ll wait.

THE ROGER DEAKINS AWARD, UM, I MEAN CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Assassination of Jesse James That I’m Still Waiting for in My Netflix Queue
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

This is a close, close category. I only call it the Roger Deakins award because between his work in Assassination (5 critics circle wins) and No Country (4 wins, including a BAFTA) he’s actually accumulated the most plaudits so far. There Will Be Blood has nabbed 5 wins for Robert Elswit, including his some Guild love. And Diving Bell is no slouch with 3 wins.

And, hey, Atonement has a really bitchin’ tracking shot.

So what will it come down to? My best guess is that your average Academy voter will look at the ballot and say, “Well, I’m already voting for No Country for so much else, why not throw a little love to that other desolate depiction of Texas everyone says I should see?” And then they will do coke.

Now, in spite of my airtight logic, the smart Vegas money is still (barely) on No Country.

This is also a close “should” call because all the work I’ve seen in these films is gorgeous (and I’m guessing Assassination will live up to the visual hype when it arrives). I use the word “gorgeous” a lot when talking about cinematography I like, but I rarely use the term “innovative” or “daring.” But that’s what I feel Janusz Kaminski achieved with his work on Diving Bell.

To say, okay, we’re going to lock you in to the eyes (and eventually, eye) of this one character for the first, like, ten minutes straight, and then for most of the rest of the film is a bold choice on the director’s part, but it takes one hell of a cinematographer to actually pull it off and make it interesting as opposed to really, really annoying.

The eye-sewing shot alone clinches it. You’ll know it when you see it.

FILM EDITING

The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum

First, let me say that it’s very, very, very hard for a film that’s not going to win Best Picture to win Best Editing. It happens (Matrix, Black Hawk Down). But the smart money is always on what you think will win the final prize. And yet, this year I’ve got a hunch.

The Bourne Ultimatum was this summer’s gold standard for action. Kind of like Spider-Man 2 winning a spot in the AFI top ten in its day, Ultimatum was the escapist flick that got respect. And to see it in an editing category just makes sense. Most of what people remember from that film’s action are cuts. Not necessarily coherent, but compelling. Add to that an Eddie win (beating out Best Picture presumptives No Country and Blood) and I think you’re in the zone.

Again, it should be noted, oddsmakers like No Country here, but Ultimatum is close behind.

As far as “should,” the style of action on display in Ultimatum requires precision editing that looks random but isn’t. No mean feat.

SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED

Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men

The critics, writers’ guild and oddsmakers agree. This is an easy get for Country.

Here I’m going to contradict myself. The problem I had with No Country certainly stems from the screenplay as much as the direction (same source, in any case). The admittedly brave choices the script makes at the end are at the heart of what made the film problematic for me. But the majority of the screenplay I found to be enormously entertaining and well-crafted.

And on top of that, I’m still not sure I disagree with those frustrating choices. And though I may have liked Blood better as a film, it wasn’t (primarily) because of the screenplay.

And this would have been a whole lot easier if they had just nominated freakin’ Charlie Wilson.

SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL

Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Will Win: Juno
Should Win: Juno

Again, pretty much everyone is in agreement here. The Guild went for it. So did BAFTA and BFCA, not to mention 16 other critics circles. Oddsmakers like it, too. And Diablo’s marketed herself better than any other writer on this list.

I don’t feel strongly about any of these screenplays. The dialogue in Juno’s great, but it’s no better or worse than the dialogue in Reitman’s previous effort. Ratatouille has a strong screenplay, and on the right day I might vote for it instead. Ditto Clayton. But today I like Juno.

Honestly, if you were to throw The Host, Severance or Death Proof in here, it’d be no contest. (I don’t know why horror jumps to mind, but those are some damn good screenplays.)

In our next, and final installment: Daniel Day Lewis drinks George Clooney’s milkshake. He drinks it up.

In which we see how even a film like Norbit can have a (surprisingly good) shot at the little golden man.

MAKEUP

La Vie en Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

Will Win: La Vie en Rose
Should Win: La Vie en Rose

This is a very close call. Don’t forget, The Nutty Professor won Rick Baker a statue back in ‘96. So just because it’s Norbit, don’t hate on the nomination. That having been said, Nutty Professor was a top ten grosser in its year and we had never really seen anyone create that effect before. Now, Norbit is just another fat suit. The only other obvious choice is La Vie en Rose, and the winner here usually goes to an obvious choice (even if they usually forget to nominate a bunch of more obvious choices). As for Pirates, don’t be fooled, most of that’s CG.

Marion Cotillard gives a dazzling performance in La Vie en Rose, but the makeup doesn’t exactly hurt.

COSTUME DESIGN

Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Will Win: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Should Win: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

The taste for this vote has turned slightly Baroque over the last few years, so the understated dress of Atonement and La Vie en Rose might not make an impact. Across the Universe is wild, but not so much because of the costumes. The Golden Age is a lot more in your face with its couture, and even if not a lot of people saw it, that didn’t hurt last year’s winner.

Sweeney Todd isn’t quite as fabulouuus as The Golden Age, and so might be overlooked, but its costumes work better as part of an integrated look than the costume design of these other films, though Atonement comes close (which may be why they were the only two films also nominated for the next category…)

ART DIRECTION

American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

I’ve sort of argued myself into a corner by picking The Golden Age for Costume Design, since these two awards almost always match and that film was not nominated here. Then again, they didn’t match last year. There’s also been a trend of late away from strict Best Picture nominees winning this award and I’m going to defy that, too, and say that the BAFTA win for Atonement is predictive.

At least my “should win” picks for Art Direction and Costume Design will match. Sweeney Todd truly is an aesthetic triumph (not to mention a directorial one, which, funnily enough, the Academy didn’t).

ORIGINAL SCORE

Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma

Will Win: Atonement
Should Win: Atonement

On this one, I’m pretty much doing what little math I can come by. Clayton and Ratatouille’s scores haven’t been acknowledged elsewhere. 3:10 got a BFCA nod. Runner got a BAFTA nod. Atonement got both of those and a Golden Globe win.

The only score that stands out here for me is Atonement’s. The narrative hinges on the very idea of narrative and things being written down, so the fact that the sounds of a typewriter are actually incorporated into the soundtrack as percussion is nothing short of brilliant. It’s not every day you get subtext in your score.

ORIGINAL SONG

“Falling Slowly” - Once
“Happy Working Song” - Enchanted
“Raise It Up” - August Rush
“So Close” - Enchanted
“That’s How You Know” - Enchanted

Will Win: “That’s How You Know”
Should Win: “Falling Slowly”

I think it’s a toss up between “Falling Slowly” and “That’s How You Know.” Splitting the vote three ways didn’t help Dreamgirls any last year and “Slowly” has the only win to it’s name (from the BFCA). On the other hand, “That’s How You Know” has a BFCA nod and a Golden Globe nod and it’s from a far more recognizable film. On top of that, Disney has a very strong history in this category. On top of that, Amy Adams, who sings the song herself, is an up-and-coming starlet and the Academy loves rewarding up-and-coming starlets (damn near gave her an Oscar already in ‘06), even if the award doesn’t actually go to her.

Once, in my opinion, was the best film of last year, in no small part due to the amazing music, of which “Falling Slowly” is a prime example. You could have nominated five songs from that film to fill this category and I would have been happy. I’m just glad Once is getting some kind of props at The Show.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Katy’n
Mongol
12

Will Win: Beaufort
Should Win: Mongol

First, let’s reflect on some of the more obvious choices and why they’re not represented here:

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Not submitted by France. They opted for Persepolis instead, which was probably a mistake, because…
Persepolis - Not here either. Got picked for Best Animated. Which would have left the door wide open for Diving Bell, had they submitted it.
Lust, Caution - Not “Taiwanese” enough. Don’t get me started.
4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days - I have no freakin’ clue.
Black Book - Not submitted by Germany.
The Host - Okay, this would have been a long shot. But Korea didn’t submit it, so we’ll never know.

Pretty much any of these films could have knocked out any of the films that actually got nominated, but such is the fickle finger of the selection process. Anyhoo, Beaufort seems to have the most plaudits and domestic box office, if those are any indicator of name recognition, which is about all these flicks will have to go on as I doubt most of the Academy has seen any of them. Also, the plot, revolving around Israeli soldiers in Lebanon circa 2000, is kind of, um, timely.

I have seen none of these films, but I’m going to give it to Mongol just because it’s Kazakhstan’s first entry to make it to the final five and damn if we didn’t give ‘em hell last year.

In our next installment: Will there never be an Oscar season without penguins again?

Wouldn’t that be a cool name for a show where a guy lives his life backwards like Merlin? Anyway…

Ironically, the one wide release to not do well over the Valentine’s/President’s weekend was the one that seemed best suited to the romantic holiday - Definitely, Maybe.

2/22

Wide

VANTAGE POINT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An attempt on the President’s life, Rashomon-style.

WILL IT SUCK?
The writer’s a friend of a friend, so I’m going to say it’s the best film in the history of films that were written. I’ve never heard of the director, but let’s say he’s good, too.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some stiff competition, but awareness is pretty high. $44mil.

CHARLIE BARTLETT

(Delayed from lots of months)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kid starts handing out psychiatric advice (and meds) in his high school.

WILL IT SUCK?
Not bad. I wouldn’t put it in the pantheon of great teen smart-ass flicks, but it’s decent.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On this crowded a weekend, I think indie platform would be a better strategy for this type of fare. $16mil.

BE KIND REWIND

(Delayed from January)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two video store clerks (Jack Black, Mos Def) set out to remake classic films that one of them accidentally erased.

WILL IT SUCK?
Written and directed by Michel Gondry, so already it’s good times. And judging by the trailer, they’ll make the most of a terrific premise.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Moving into a position where a wide release would be more advantageous was probably a good move, but it’s still a crowded weekend and Jack Black hasn’t been as big of a draw for his last few movies. $32mil.

WITLESS PROTECTION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Larry the Cable Guy does some stuff. Probably says “Git-R-Done.”

WILL IT SUCK?
Finally, the guy who wrote Gymkata has made another film. Yaphet Kotto, what happened? You were in Midnight Run, man. Midnight Run.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Semi-Pro comes out next week as the relatively highbrow comedy alternative. $9mil.

Limited

THE SIGNAL

(Delayed from October)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A mysterious signal is broadcast over all airwaves that basically says “you go kill now.”

WILL IT SUCK?
Three writer/directors tackle the three acts of the film. The concept works, according to early buzz.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Better against the second frame of Diary of the Dead than the first of Saw IV, which was its original competition. $2mil.

THE COUNTERFEITERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of a WWII-era counterfeiter recruited by his Nazi captors to produce fake foreign currency.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Manged to navigate this year’s unusually turbulent waters of Best Foreign Oscar selection to make it into the final five.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Oscar nod will help, if anyone ever hears about it. $2mil.

THE DUCHESS OF LANGEAIS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Married 1820’s woman toys with passions of an increasingly impatient adventurer. I’m sure that works out well for both of them. Based on the novel by Balzac.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Stars Gerard Depardieu’s son Guillaume. From acclaimed French director Jacques Rivette.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Rivette. $750,000.

Next Week: Natalite Portman/Scarlet Johansson catfight.

…that I love this Web site?

Or is it mitigated by the fact that I like many of the same things?

via Blankbaby

Spielberg and Lucas have given us a little Valentine’s Day Card.

Yes, I clicked on “Play Again.”

Once again it’s time for me to make my speciously-reasoned picks for Oscar night, which will actually have writers now, bringing it back to the same standard of quality we’ve come to expect from Oscar banter. Woot.

Last year I shot 58%. Not my best year. Fortunately, this year doesn’t look even remotely as predictable.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

I Met the Walrus
Madame Tutli-Putli
Meme les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)
My Love (Moya Lyubov)
Peter & the Wolf

Will Win: I Met the Walrus
Should Win: My Love (Moya Lyubov)

In spite of an arty trend of late, I get the feeling that the political context of I Met the Walrus will sway voters this year.

Speaking of arty, My Love is gorgeous. An impressionist painting come to life. Now if I only spoke Russian. (It’s also the only short here from a category vet - 3 nods, 1 win - so consider it a spoiler.)

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

At Night
Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman

Will Win:Tanghi Argentini
Should Win: The Tonto Woman

Tanghi Argentini has won more awards than all of these other films combined, which is pretty easy since none of these other films have won any awards. Even if they had, though, they’d still have to struggle to match Tanghi’s 15 wins (three at one festival), a clean sweep with every nod resulting in a win.

That having been said, The Tonto Woman is based on an Elmore Leonard short story, and he’s awesome.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Freeheld
La Corona (The Crown)
Salim Baba
Sari’s Mother

Will Win: Freeheld
Should Win: Freeheld

As with Tanghi, Freeheld has racked up far more awards than anyone else in this category, including a Special Jury Prize at last year’s Sundance. More than that, I have a feeling that the film’s emotional story, about a police officer dying of cancer fighting to get the rules changed so that her domestic partner can receive her pension, will strike a chord.

Just watching the trailer got me verklempt, so I’m guessing the rest of it packs a punch.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

Will Win: Sicko
Should Win: No End in Sight

For the past few years, the highest profile (read: highest-grossing) doc has won this award, with Born Into Brothels upset over Super Size Me as a notable exception. I see no reason for that trend to change here, with Sicko’s $24.5 million gross dwarfing the next-highest grosser, No End in Sight, which only raked in $1.4 million.

In addition, the fact that every other doc in the category is about war (3 on Iraq, 1 on Uganda - though that one’s more about music than war), will help Sicko stand out. That and the fact that it’s helmed by the most financially successful and arguably well-known documentarian in the world.

Sicko’s a great doc. Don’t get me wrong. But No End in Sight is better. It’s more powerful, even-handed and insightful. I haven’t seen the other three, but they’ll have to work pretty damn hard to beat my third favorite film of 2007. (Of those three, my guess is that Enron: Smartest Guys in the Room helmer Alex Gibney’s Taxi could do the trick.) And of the other four, it does come closest to being a spoiler, with 8 critics circle wins to Sicko’s 9 (though in Sicko’s case that includes a Critic’s Choice win).

(Handyfilm points out on Blogcritics that Taxi’s got a WGA win, so I’d say that puts it in play as well, but in a strictly John Edwards a month ago sense.)

By the way, where is The King of Kong, The Trials of Daryl Hunt, The Devil Came on Horseback or In the Shadow of the Moon? Just saying.

SOUND EDITING

The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers

Big films tend to win this award, with the odd Letters From Iwo Jima thrown in from time to time. So, really, this could just as easily be Bourne Ultimatum’s prize. Or even Ratatouille, following in the footsteps of The Incredibles.

The only sound effect I remember from any of these films is the sound the transformers make when they transform, which is cool. Not as cool as the sound on the TV show, but still cool.

SOUND MIXING

“I know the difference between sound editing and sound mixing has got to be in here somewhere.”

The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum

This award tends to skew more Best Picture-y, so look for No Country to close.

I’d say I liked the sound during the fights in Bourne Ultimatum, but I’m pretty sure most of that noise was added later, and isn’t that technically sound editing? But in that case, how is Ratatouille, which presumably had no live sound recording, up in here? I’m so confused.

Oh, and do the sound guys from There Will Be Blood and 3:10 to Yuma feel like one-termers or something for being the only ones to not make it into both categories?

In our next installment: That’s “the Academy Award-nominated Norbit,” thank you very much!

Back from Hawaii and boy are my arms tired. Photos here (with more to come).

In other news, Matthew McConaughey’s still got it.

2/15

Wide

DEFINITELY, MAYBE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
How I Met Your Mother: The Movie

WILL IT SUCK?
Working Title is like the Pixar of romcom (About a Boy, Bridget Jones’s Diary, even the title font and colors for this one come from Love, Actually). That having been said, the writer/director wrote the Bridget Jones sequel and Practical Magic.

Early buzz, however, is good. And the cast is hot: Ryan Reynolds, Isla Fisher, Elizabeth Banks, Rachel Weisz, Abigail Breslin, Kevin Kline, Derek Luke, and Nestor Serrano.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Very crowded field. $33mil.

STEP UP 2 THE STREETS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Best use of a “2″ pun in a sequel title since Teen Wolf, Too.

WILL IT SUCK?
The only two things distinguishing this from all other You Got Served kith in my mind are (a) one of the writers wrote Save the Last Dance, which was supposed to not suck and (b) it’s set at the Maryland School of the Arts, and I’m from Baltimore.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Field didn’t get any less crowded, but don’t underestimate dance challenge flicks. $33mil.

THE SPIDERWICK CHRONICLES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Another kids’ fantasy flick.

WILL IT SUCK?
Mark Waters helmed the shit out of Freaky Friday and Mean Girls, but seeing Chris Weitz fail to crossover from romcom to fantasy with Golden Compass gives me pause. Writers have done everything from Chicken Run to Haunted Mansion, so your guess is as good as mine, although they did bring in John Sayles to script doctor. Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Bad timing. Jumper’s going to be an issue. If the rumors about an attached Indiana Jones trailer hold true, that might give the opening weekend a bump. $58mil.

JUMPER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Teleporting freaks battle it out with government agents.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Doug Liman knows his shit, and the writers have titles like Fight Club and Batman Begins under their collective belts. Early buzz, however, is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will own a crowded weekend. $93mil.

Limited

GEORGE A. ROMERO’S DIARY OF THE DEAD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
George goes all Cloverfield on the zombie genre.

WILL IT SUCK?
Zombies are what this man does. Early buzz is good. Keep an ear out for voice cameos from Quentin Tarantino, Guillermo Del Toro, Stephen King, Simon Pegg and Wes Craven.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Oft-delayed indie horror flick Signal comes out next week, but no one takes on Romero. $10mil.

Next Week: The best premise I’ve heard in a long time.