After the success of Understanding Military Rank Through Film (Parts One and Two), I thought it might be a good idea to try to figure out how police ranks work. Granted, a lot of this shifts between precincts, but this will give you a good overview. We begin, as always, at the bottom.

Officer

Where it all begins.

Officer John McClane (Bruce Willis) in Die Hard.

Detective

Now you get to wear normal clothes.

Detective Axel Foley (Eddie Murphy) in Beverly Hills Cop.

Sergeant

Now you’re in charge of people.

Sgts. Martin Riggs and Roger Murtaugh (Mel Gibson and Danny Glover) in Lethal Weapon. They both got promoted to Captain in part four.

Lieutenant

Welcome to middle management.

Lt. Frank Drebin (Leslie Nielsen) in The Naked Gun.

Captain

In charge of a whole precinct, which may or may not be assaulted.

Capt. Dudley Smith (James Cromwell) in L.A. Confidential. Real nice guy.

Major

Haven’t actually found any of these, but in some departments it’s the same as Commander, so let’s skip there.

Commander

AKA “inspector,” but in San Francisco an inspector is the same as a detective, which is how Inspector “Dirty” Harry Callahan can be outranked Lt. Al Bressler.

Commander Adam Beck (David Morse) in The Negotiator.

Commissioner

AKA Chief of Police. There are several ranks of commissioner, but this is the only one that ever gets a speaking role.

Commissioner James Gordon (Gary Oldman) in The Dark Knight.

You may be wondering about the sheriff and the deputy (and if they were shot by one person or two). In some counties, you can have an elected position called sheriff, with deputies working under him or her. You can also have a second-in-command called an undersheriff. Here’s how it all breaks down.

Sheriff Will Teasle (Brian Dennehy) in First Blood.

Saw may have lost the battle with High School Musical 3, but it won the war with Jason, Freddy and Michael to become the highest-grossing horror franchise of all time.

10/31

Wide

THE HAUNTING OF MOLLY HARTLEY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Reaper with a chick.

WILL IT SUCK?
Looks like it. Seriously, were it not for Gossip Girls‘ Chace Crawford having a supporting role, I’m thinking straight-to-DVD.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even Chace can’t save this one. $10mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not so much.

ZACK AND MIRI MAKE A PORNO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Title leaves little to the imagination.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as pretty much the best little Kevin Smith film ever. Looks like the perfect storm of Smith dialogue and Apatow players (though Apatow has no involvement). Check out the hilarious red band trailer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think audiences are ready to love Smith again. $58mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Just once I’d like to see my homeboy get a screenplay nod. Just once.

Limited

SPLINTER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Carjackers and kidnapees vs. deadly parasite.

WILL IT SUCK?
Been getting raves on the horror fest circuit.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The much higher profile Repo! The Genetic Opera opens the following week, and even that ain’t gonna do well. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It would be nice someday to see one of these claustrophobic horror flicks make a dent.

THE OTHER END OF THE LINE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sleepless in Mumbai

WILL IT SUCK?
You don’t expect the director of Behind Enemy Lines 2 to helm a romcom, yet here we are.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s not so much that there’s a lot of genre competition as I don’t think anyone is going to hear about this. $750,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Again with the no one will ever know.

Next Week: The late, great Bernie Mac shows up in two wide releases.

Just finished watching Bigger, Stronger, Faster*. Wow. Changed my worldview about steriods. Confirmed a lot of what I suspected after reading Gladwell on the topic. Namely that we, as a country, need to have a much more intelligent discussion about steroids than we’re probably having.

First off, the idea that steroids are somehow a “shortcut,” as Bush labeled them in his 2004 State of the Union, is kind of a misnomer. A shortcut suggests what I’ll call The Popeye Theory of Steroids, which is that all you have to do is take them like Popeye’s spinach and all of a sudden you’re a superhulk.

Not so much.

It’s more like this. Without steroids, if you work your ass off, eventually you could lift, say 400lbs. On steroids, you could work your ass off much, much more and lift 700lbs. You’re not reducing the amount of work necessary, you’re increasing the amount of work possible. Like one guy says in the movie, guys on steroids train harder than guys who are not. This is not because they have a better work ethic. It’s simply because they can.

This is part of a very old paradigm. The notion that technology (and drugs are a technology) somehow makes our lives better by decreasing the amount of time it takes to accomplish a given task, thus giving us more free time to do whatever we want. Put simply, technology makes us lazy.

This almost never happens.

What actually happens is that we end up doing more of whatever that task is that just got easier. The washing machine suddenly makes it take less time to do a load of laundry? Guess what? You’re doing more loads of laundry than ever before. Steroids suddenly make you capable of growing more muscle? Guess what? You’re working out that muscle to its fullest potential.

So steroids are actually the opposite of a shortcut. They’re a completely different, and longer, route to a different destination.

Another misconception is that we know how unsafe steroids are. Actually, we only really know how unsafe they aren’t. The film asserts that, for example, only three deaths a year are attributed to steroids (I believe they cite the CDC here, but I’m still looking for confirmation). No long term studies have been done to give us the kind of data that we have on, say, cocaine. What studies have been done suggest that steroids are pretty much like any other prescription drug. You do too much, you’re fucked. You use it in moderation, it’ll do what you want it to. This is unlike, say, heroin, where there really is no moderate way to use it.

So if we can agree that steroids don’t belong in a category with crystal meth (which is how the DEA, AMA and FDA felt when Congress first asked them for recommendations on how to classify them), we can discuss other reasons to demonize them. Namely, fairness. It is cheating to use steroids. Why? Because the rules of the game say so. Just like they say it’s cheating to use sandpaper on the ball. Easy.

But let’s back up a little bit more. Why do the rules of the game say it’s cheating? Well, it can’t be because of the Popeye Theory. Athletes who use them are actually working harder than those who do not. Are we penalizing them for that? Well, they get an unfair advantage over players who don’t use. Except, if they’re working harder for that advantage, is it really unfair? Well, steroids cost money, so the athlete or team with more money gets an unfair advantage. I’m not even going to dignify that one with a rebuttal, except to say that if you can afford eye surgery (I’m lookin’ at you, Tiger) is that an unfair advantage? If so, I recommend that you give every team the same amount of money to spend on everything (and not just a salary cap).

Perhaps the best compromise is to simply have a Steroid League. Do all the drugs you want. Those who want to play with their “natural ability” (that means no surgery, not even contact lenses, and if you want to be really anal you could argue means no exercise that uses technology - even then would training at a high altitude to promote red blood cell generation count?) can play in the Normie League.

Guess which Barry Bonds would play in the Normie League?

The best part of all of this would be the kick-ass names the druggie leagues came up with:

The Cincinnati Juicers

The Kansas City Speedballs

The New England Crackheads
(actually the name of a Fantasy Football Team I had once)

The Seattle Black Tar Heroin Scrotum Injectors

And so on…

On the other hand, if you want to say that using drugs, even if they aren’t as bad as PCP, sends the wrong message to kids, then the powers that be have to stop profiting off of them. Steroids saved the MLB’s no-ratings-gettin’ ass in the same way that day laborers make business possible for many of the people demonizing illegal immigration. If you’re going to be black and white about things, pick a side.

Oh, and this will all get ten times more complicated when genetic doping, which doesn’t use any drugs, becomes the norm.

Anyway, the film’s director, Chris Bell, makes a lot of these points more elegantly than I, interweaving a compelling personal narrative to boot, so check it out.

Called the B.O. for just about every wide release this past weekend (multiply their take by three to get a rough estimate of their final take, which is what I predicted). Overshot W. by a bit, but that’s about all. Hopefully this makes up for my terrible, terrible Chihuahua misstep.

10/23

Wide

HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR YEAR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Prequel to Community College Musical.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Kenny Ortega helmed Newsies back in ‘92 which, in my mind, makes him the perfect choice to have directed the first two High School Musicals. He directed this one, too, with the same writer so expect more of the same. That having been said, the trailer actually looks pretty good.

And yes, a High School Musical 4 has been announced.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the first time a TV movie title has had a big screen sequel so, by definition, the audience is built-in (and large, or why make the leap). Let’s say only the people who watched the premiere of HSM 2 buy tix. That’s $172mil (assuming an average ticket price of $10).

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy, of late, likes their musicals dark.

SAW V

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Jigsaw mantle gets passed on.

WILL IT SUCK?
This series has been around so long that people are being promoted from production designer to director. Written by the guys who wrote the last Saw movie and, if you haven’t noticed, those things have been getting diminishing critical returns, even from fans.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Why is this not being released on Halloween which is, you know, on a Friday? Do they think the demo will be trick-or-treating? No, instead let’s open against one of the few surefire blockbusters of the fall. Especially since profits have been falling steadily since Saw II. $48mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Punctuality? These things really do come out every October like clockwork.

PRIDE AND GLORY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ed Norton ends up investigating his brother Colin Farrell’s precinct as part of a murder investigation.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is kind of confirming what I suspected, that this is a by-the-numbers police corruption flick. Doesn’t seem like co-screenwriter Joe Carnahan’s contribution has added anything juicier or Miracle director Gavin O’Connor (who also co-wrote the screenplay) has added anything more original.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given the lackluster performance of Righteous Kill, which had much bigger stars, I’m not optimistic. $17mil. (By the way, exactly how many trailers can you have where titles appear above an extreme close-up of a badge?)
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I look forward to the day when Norton does something Oscar-worthy again, but this probably ain’t it.

Limited

CHANGELING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Angelina Jolie gets locked up in a mental institution for claiming that the boy the police brought to her in a missing persons case was not actually her son.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. You’d expect more since not only have you got Clint (Eastwood, not Howard, though that would be cool, too) at the helm, but you’ve got John Malkovich in a leading role, with support from Colm Feore, Amy Ryan and that dude from Burn Notice (Jeffrey Donovan, not Bruce Campbell, though that would be hellacool). Strangely enough, the screenplay comes from Babylon 5 creator J. Michael Straczynski.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Clint plus stars equals indie gold. Hell, they could have probably released this shit wide. $30mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
While critical response has been more lukewarm than you usually get for Oscar fare, I can see the Academy’s love for Eastwood (depending upon the strength of field) turning into multiple nods.

PASSENGERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
U2 records a really weird album with Brian Eno. Oh, you mean the movie. Patrick Wilson starts getting all these creepy abilities after surviving a plane crash.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the guy who wrote that 10.5 earthquake TV movie…you know what? I’m just going to stop right there.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You’ve got a paranormal thriller with Anne Hathaway, Patrick Wilson, Andre Brauer and David Morse and you’re going to release it limited near the end of October? Yeah, that’s a body dump. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nope.

SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Charlie Kaufman writes and, for the first time, directs this straightforward story in which nothing unusual happens. Nah, just kidding. It’s pretty fucked up.

WILL IT SUCK?
If you “get” the title, this movie is probably for you. Early buzz is good, but terms like “surreal post-modern metanarrative” are thrown around freely in reviews, so consider yourself warned. If you need more reason to get psyched, look at this cast: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Samantha Morton, Michelle Williams, Catherine Keener, Emily Watson, Dianne Wiest, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hope Davis and that dude who played the bad guy in Manhunter.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Unless Kaufman has a Jim Carrey or a Nic Cage in the lead, it’s hard for his scripts to make bank. $17mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A screenplay (or maybe even directing) nod isn’t out of the question, and with all the makeup changes maybe Hoffman could get a nod, and there’s no lack of Supporting Actress roles, but overall the reception hasn’t been on the level of say, the love for Eternal Sunshine, so I wouldn’t put any money down.

LET THE RIGHT ONE IN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vampire flick for those who think the bloodsuckers in Twilight are too old.

WILL IT SUCK?
Ha ha! That never gets old! Been leaving an army of devoted fans in its film festival wake, racking up awards including a big win at Tribeca. In reviews, the term “classic” comes up a lot. It’s a Swedish import so, of course, there’s going to be an American remake (by Cloverfield helmer Matt Reeves) so probably best to check this one out first.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
These festival horror darlings almost never do well theatrically. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ditto, minus the “almost.”

FEAR(S) OF THE DARK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A collection of animated horror shorts by leading graphic artists (none of whom I’ve ever heard of, but that’s not saying much).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Cool concept. Even the less scary parts are supposed to have amazing animation.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the mainstream audience (or even a lot of the indie audience) hasn’t heard of Blutch, Charles Burns, Marie Caillou, Lorenzo Mattoti, Pierre Di Sciullo or Richard McGuire, either. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It would be pretty cool to see a horror film sneak in by getting an animated nod. I think it’s unlikely, though.

I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
French film in which two sisters are reunited after 15 years.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Kristin Scott Thomas is supposed to be awesome. I didn’t even know she spoke French.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There are some high profile indies this week, but this is not one of them. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The way they’re talking about Thomas, you’d think so, but the language thing is going to be a dealbreaker.

Next Week: Zack and Miri make Kevin Smith’s best-received film in years.

Anyone who saw Nixon knows that Oliver Stone probably wasn’t planning on doing a hatchet job on George W. Bush in his latest film. Stone seeks to understand his subjects, not forgive or excoriate them. However, anyone who saw Nixon may find that W., while a solid film, suffers by comparison.

The film cuts between Bush’s first term and the road that led him there. It’s a fascinating story. The family fuck-up becomes the 43rd President of the United States. If you were to sell it as fiction it would be a comedy (and the film is very, very funny at times). It’s also an archetype, in Stone’s interpretation. The black sheep, trapped beneath his father’s shadow, seeks to win his approval by besting him.

This paradigm produces the film’s weakest moments. The screenplay, by Wall Street scribe Stanley Weiser, relies on routine father/son conflict patter that wouldn’t be interesting except for the fact that it’s being spoken by Presidents. Not helping matters any is a sentimental score which, even if it’s being ironically saccharine, is too much.

When it comes to politics, however, the screenplay crackles, with back room debates over everything from the Iraq War to the invention of the term “Axis of Evil.” Rich monologues remind you of what made Wall Street so compelling.

The performances are top notch, though at first there’s an almost inevitable SNL effect of perceiving impersonation instead of performance. Richard Dreyfuss however, leaves this perception in the dust more than most, fully embodying Dick Cheney. James Cromwell, on the other hand, takes a completely different tack, making no effort whatsoever to impersonate Bush Senior. He doesn’t need to do Bush because in Stone’s depiction, Bush is the archetypal patriarch-that-cannot-be-pleased so Cromwell just does that. Ironically, this approach makes for one of the strongest performances in the film.

Josh Brolin is a revelation as W., or at least he would be if he hadn’t already proven himself just last year with stellar turns in American Gangster and No Country for Old Men. But here he gets to play sensitive. Brolin portrays the hurt Bush experiences early on that spawns a lot of what will make him so controversial later. A very telling moment comes at the end of a failed congressional campaign where his opponent defeats him by painting him as an elitist who isn’t a good Christian. Bush vows never to lose on those grounds again, and Brolin sells that pain.

Though Stone’s work here is strong, he just seemed to go crazier with Nixon. Visually he was much more free and thematically he reached into much darker places. You got a real sense of dread from the forces that Nixon was playing with and, more unnervingly, were playing him. Here there’s just as much reason to dread, but the film feels aesthetically and thematically lighter, as if there’s just less to say.

And that, fundamentally, may be the problem. Nixon, the film, is more interesting than W., the film, because Nixon, the man, is more interesting than W., the man. That’s more a comment on Nixon’s complexity than Bush’s simplicity because Bush isn’t dull, he’s just not nearly as twisted. At least, Stone’s take on him isn’t.

If, like me, you don’t know preferred stock from livestock, here are two great TAL podcasts explaining the current financial mishigas.

Podcast the first.

Podcast the second.

via Upyernoz

If I told you a month ago that a non-franchise horror movie with no stars would beat a spy thriller with Russell Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio, would you have believed me?

Oh, and the charming Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist is what the Sixteen Candles-era John Hughes romp has evolved into, not to mention the fact that the pairing of Kat Dennings and Michael Cera is a match made in indie darling heaven.

10/17

Limited

SEX DRIVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Superbad Road Trip

WILL IT SUCK?
Looks like College with a better cast and only one or two better jokes. Don’t know what a teen comedy has to do these days to get out of the shadow of Superbad, but this ain’t it.

Early buzz, however, is good in an “I can’t believe that didn’t suck nearly as much as I expected” kind of way.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Now that Max Payne has a PG-13, it will pwn this film, which draws on the same demo with an R. $14mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Seth Green for Best Cameo as an Amish Person. It’s one of the technical awards.

MAX PAYNE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
FPS video game adaptation. So there’ll be shooting.

WILL IT SUCK?
FPS video game adaptation. So yes. No idea about the writer, but the director did Behind Enemy Lines (and The Omen remake, but that wasn’t an action film so let’s just ignore it), so I guess the action sequences might not suck. Actually, I’ve already lost interest in this movie since the director’s next one involves zombie vampires in Afghanistan (though, strangely, isn’t actually called Zombie Vampires in Afghanistan, which would just be the Best. Title. Ever.)

Early buzz is not so good, and I love this quote from Andrew L. Urban, “I never trust a film in which the protagonists have conversations or even arguments in the pouring rain - without umbrellas.”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much in the way of action this month, and Marky Mark usually draws a crowd. $58mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think the first video game adaptation to even stand a slim chance at an Oscar nod will be Bioshock.

THE SECRET LIFE OF BEES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Little white girl (Dakota Fanning, natch) goes to live with big black family in 60’s South Carolina.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. From the writer/director of Love and Basketball with a tricked-out cast including Queen Latifah, Sohpie Okonedo, Paul Bettany, Alicia Keys and Jennifer Hudson (and no word on whether those last two sing a duet on the soundtrack but if I were some cheeseball producer I’d totally have them remaking “Peace Train” or some shit).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Based on a bestselling novel. And there’s nothing else like it for miles. $34mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’m sure that was the idea.

W.

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Step back in time with Oliver Stone to, um, I guess right now.

WILL IT SUCK?
Seriously, who else could direct this but Oliver Stone? And Josh Brolin as the Prez is fuck genius. Some inspired casting all around: Elizabeth Banks as Laura Bush, Ellen Burstyn as Barbara Bush, Rob Corddry as Ari Fleischer, James Cromwell as Pa Bush, Richard Dreyfuss as Darth Cheney, Scott Glen as Rumsfeld, Ioan Gruffudd as Tony Blair, Toby Jones as Karl Rove, Bruce McGill as George Tenet, Thandie Newton as Condi Rice and Jeffrey Wright as Colin Powell.

Written by Stanley Wiser, who last teamed with Stone on Wall Street. Of course, he also wrote Project X. But, you know what? If Bush teams up with a superintelligent chimpanzee halfway through the movie, I’m gonna call that a win.

Early buzz is good, especially for Brolin’s perf.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With approval ratings in the toilet, it won’t be hard to find a group of adults willing to plunk down some cash to watch Stone beat up on the old man for a couple of hours, though I doubt that’s what he’s actually going to do. $45mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If it’s a masterpiece, which isn’t impossible, look at every major award to be in play. If not, Brolin still has a shot.

Limited

MORNING LIGHT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc following a group of newbie sailors who compete in an open ocean race.

WILL IT SUCK?
Apparently, Roy Disney is big into sailing, which is why he put this whole thing together. From the directors of the New York Cosmos doc.

Early buzz is meh.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If What Just Happened? weren’t enough to overshadow it this week, Eastwood and Kaufman have films opening next week. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Deep Water couldn’t get any love…

WHAT JUST HAPPENED?

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Entourage, except without Vincent Chase.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Barry Levinson hasn’t been knocking them out of the park lately, but this is currently his highest-rated film on IMDB. Adapted by Art Linson from his eponymous book. Supposedly the best work De Niro’s done in a while.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Generally speaking, Hollywood insider movies tend not to do that well. This does have the advantage of opening before next week’s Academy hopefuls, at least. $5mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Levinson’s already wagged this dog.

Next Week: Charlie Kaufman is back and weirder than ever.

Let’s not forget J.J. Abrams at TED.

via Len

…well, at least in the time I’ve been there.

Kev and I tried to put together a list of the best SXSW keynotes and here’s what we came up with (links will take you to the actual podcast or video of the keynote where possible).

Malcom Gladwell, ‘05
(there’s a little bit of Google video of that here)

Will Wright, ‘07

Jane McGonigal, ‘08

Although not a keynote, Alex Steffen’s Worldchanging panel from ‘07 kicked ass.

Also, any time Bruce Sterling has opened his mouth at one of these things, something fascinating/intelligent/hilarious has usually come out. Here was my first taste.

Finally, neither of us saw Henry Jenkins speak this year, but by most accounts it was the shiznit (here’s Jenkin’s own recap). I can tell you his session from ‘07 was off the chain.

Any fellow SXSWies wanna throw in their picks?

So, I kind of lowballed Beverly Hills, Chihuahua, which made more in it’s opening weekend than I predicted it would in its entire run. Never, ever underestimate the power of talking animals.

10/10

Wide

QUARANTINE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cloverfield-style chiller about an outbreak in an apartment complex.

WILL IT SUCK?
As with most horror films nowadays, this is a remake. It’s a remake of a Spanish film, though, instead of a Japanese or Korean or 70’s/80’s American one, so it’s got that going for it. Still, the cameraperson-as-character bit might seem more original were it not for Cloverfield. Or Diary of the Dead. Or The Blair Witch Project.

Early buzz is not great.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Smart enough to stay away from Saw but not smart enough to stay away from similarly quarantine-themed Blindness. Doubt it will make much difference either way. $20mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they won’t remember Cloverfield, they won’t remember this.

BODY OF LIES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Leo DiCaprio and Russel Crowe try to take down Al Qaeda.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Ridley Scott, who more often than not brings teh awesome. Adapted from the David Ignatius novel by William Monahan (The Departed) who’s been tapped to write Jurassic Park IV (!?!).

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nothing else this month has this kind of star power, but the Middle East is toxin at the box office. $48mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You’d think Scott’s American Gangster would have made more waves. In light of that, I’m thinking not so much.

CITY OF EMBER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two kids try to save their city, which happens to be the light source for the world.

WILL IT SUCK?
From Monster House director Gil Kenan and Corpse Bride, Edward Scissorhands and Nightmare Before Christmas scribe Caroline Thompson, who adapts the first in Jeanne Duprau’s celebrated Ember series. Decent cast, too: Bill Murray, Tim Robbins, Saoirse Ronan and Martin Landau.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Most attempts at starting a fantasy franchise that’s not as iconic as Narnia, Potter or Rings have seen middling returns. $72mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
See previous answer.

THE EXPRESS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of Ernie Davis, the first black man to win the Heisman Trophy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Kind of an uninspiring pedigree. The director did Runaway Jury but hasn’t done anything really interesting since that subway episode of Homicide. The writer did a great job with Blood Diamond but not so much with K-Pax. Dennis Quaid plays a coach again which is smart but uninteresting casting.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The recent history of football films does not bode well. $12mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
They didn’t Remember the Titans, and that had Denzel.

Limited

ROCKNROLLA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy Ritchie returns to what he does best. We hope.

WILL IT SUCK?
Guy Ritchie’s last movie was so bad that (a) it’s hard to trust him with a script again and (b) it’s hard for him to do a lot worse. So I try to be a little psyched. I like the casting of Tom Wilkinson and Jeremy Piven in supporting roles. Early buzz says it’s better, at least, than Revolver, but not quite back to the level of Lock, Stock or Snatch.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ritchie will see financial success once his next movie hits theaters. $9mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.

HAPPY-GO-LUCKY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In Mike Leigh’s latest, Sally Hawkins plays a woman who is the title.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Hawkins took the Golden Bear at Berlin and the film won the wonderfully-named “Most Enjoyable Film” award at the Norwegian International Film Festival. Seriously, we should have an award like that here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will probably hit around the Mike Leigh average. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Miramax can afford the Oscar push, Hawkins might stand a chance at a nod.

NIGHTS AND WEEKENDS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Couple tries to survive a long distance relationship.

WILL IT SUCK?
Mumblecore progenitors Greta Gerwig and Joe Swanberg’s (who co-write, co-direct and co-star) best to date, according to early buzz. Of course, you have to like mumblecore.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t think this will be the breakthrough mumblecore hit, but I think it will score on the higher end of the genre. $250,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It took about ten years for mumblecore forerunner Cassavetes to show up on the Academy’s radar.

ASHES OF TIME REDUX

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
If it hasn’t been released in North America, it’s new to you.

WILL IT SUCK?
Apparently, there are only a few differences between Wong Kar Wai’s original 1994 Ashes and this reworking. Still, the old one is slightly more highly regarded (though both are considered the shiznit). In a way, though, it doesn’t matter because the original was never released in the states, so if you wanna see this film in a theater, this is your only shot.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Wong Kar Wai does not usually bring in the big bucks. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Is it even eligible?

Next Week: And starring Rob Corddry as Ari Fleischer…