Did not expect Marley & Me to win the weekend, much less break the record for highest Christmas Day gross (followed by 2nd and 3rd place record breakers Benjamin Button and Bedtime Stories). Didn’t expect Button (a.k.a. Arty Forrest Gump) to get that kind of broad love. Glad it did.

This week only one movie dare open that it may qualify for Oscar consideration.

12/31

Limited

DEFIANCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of four brothers who fought off the Nazis while protecting over a thousand fellow Jews in the forests of occupied Poland during WWII.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good which is too bad since writer/director Ed Zwick usually kicks ass, and has Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber to work with.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Of all the movies Harvey moved to (in this case almost) next year, this one I think should have stayed more firmly in ‘08. $16mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The just barely under-the-wire qualifying run release doesn’t bode well, nor do the lukewarm reviews.

Next Week: Anne Hathaway goes to another wedding.

An $18 million opening weekend in late December isn’t so much a “Yes” as it is an “I guess I see your point.”

12/26

Wide

BEDTIME STORIES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Adam Sandler tells his kids bedtime stories that come true.

WILL IT SUCK?
So the plan, certainly, was to introduce Sandler to kid-friendly fare by using a tried and true comedy director (Adam Shankman, whose Hairspray does not make up for The Pacifier, The Wedding Planner and Cheaper by the Dozen 2) and teaming one of his frequent writers (Tim Herlihy, who’s had a hand in the best and worst Sandler fare) with a kid-friendly writer (Matt Lopez, The Wild – you know, the other animated film about zoo animals on the run?). This does not bode well.

Early buzz is fairly indifferent.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nothing standing in its way. $120mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not on the visual effects shortlist so, no.

THE SPIRIT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Frank Miller adapts the classic Will Eisner comic about a cop resurrected from the dead.

WILL IT SUCK?
Frank Miller co-wrote and co-directed the adaptation of his own Sin City, so it seems he should be up to the task. And the source material is from a guy who has a major graphic novel award named after him. Still, nothing I’ve seen so far instills confidence. Not even Sam Jackson as the main baddie. It just looks silly.

Early buzz seems to confirm this.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nothing quite like it out there, but I don’t think I’m the only one underwhlemed so far. $40mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Sin City and 300 couldn’t even get any technical love…

VALKYRIE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Nazis try to knock off Hitler.

WILL IT SUCK?
Try, for a moment, to forget that it’s Tom Cruise playing a Nazi with his Tom Cruise voice. Instead, imagine I’m telling you that Bryan Singer got back together with Usual Suspects scribe Christopher McQuarrie to do a film with Kenneth Branagh, Bill Nighy, Tom Wilkinson, Thomas Kretschmann, Terence Stamp and Eddie Izzard. Still not convinced? Neither am I. The no-less-than-four release date changes don’t help.

That having been said, early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cruise has become a tough sell. Also, there’s like fifty other movies this weekend. Ironically, it’d be better off with the announced-then-abandoned February 20, 2009 release date, which would give it more breathing room, only putting it up against the latest Tyler Perry flick. $60mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Putting it this late in the season with this much competition seems like an Oscar grab. But if UA were serious about giving this an Oscar push, wouldn’t they have had critic’s screenings in time for the critics circles awards? I smell an incoherent Awards strategy mimicking the incoherent release strategy.

MARLEY & ME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dickens joke or reggae joke? Dickens joke or reggae joke? Oh, I can’t decide. Anyway, newlyweds Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston get a difficult dog. Life lessons ensue.

WILL IT SUCK?
For what looks like a Pointless Pet Film they’ve thrown some serious talent. David Frankel (Devil Wears Prada, some Entourage and Band of Brothers) directs with Scott Frank (Minority Report, The Lookout, Out of Sight) and Don Roos (The Opposite of Sex) writing. That’s almost enough to make me forget that I’ve lost all interest in Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston.

Early buzz is good and has produced one of my favorite quotes, describing it as “a canine Terms of Endearment.”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think the book will actually be a bigger draw than the leads. After that, good buzz will give it legs. $73mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Merlin with the aging backwards, but it’s Brad Pitt. So, like, hot Merlin.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great but you had me at Directed by David Fincher and Written by Eric Roth (Munich).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a typically ridiculously crowded Christmas weekend, I think this would benefit more from a platform, word-of-mouth-driven release. $53mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
And how. Look for picture, director (long overdue for Fincher), screenplay, actor, actress (Cate Blanchett), maybe supporting actress (Taraji P. Henson) and probably some technical nods, too.

Limited

REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Repressed married couple? In the 50’s? Get the fuck out of here!

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s a sign of how out of touch I am that instead of thinking “Wow, Kate and Leo are back together for this movie!” I’m thinking, “Hey, Sam Mendes is returning to the American Beauty well 40 years earlier!” Early buzz is good in spite of unfavorable comparisons to Mad Men popping up.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Limited releases are pretty much leaving this one alone. $24mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A comer for just about every category. The only real surprise is the buzz generated by relatively unknown character actor Michael Shannon as a Best Supporting Actor contender.

LAST CHANCE HARVEY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Loser (Dustin Hoffman) finds a second chance at love with British chick (Emma Thompson) while in London for his daughter’s wedding.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good but grudging, as in two seasoned actors rising above the material.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I wouldn’t want to open this against Revolutionary Road. $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’m sure that’s the idea, but I don’t see it happening.

WALTZ WITH BASHIR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Animated doc about a former Israeli soldier trying to regain memories he’s lost about his role in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. Swept the Israeli Film Academy Awards.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Okay. This is one film I would open against Kate and Leo. $5mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There are basically three awards this might be up for. It can’t run for Best Doc because of some technical rule snafu involving its theatrical run. Assuming the necessary L.A. theatrical run, it’s got a shot at Best Animated (and could be the film to beat, if you ask me). As for Best Foreign, Israel did submit it, so it’s got that going for it, too.

Next Week: Ed Zwick’s latest makes a qualifying run just under the wire. Plus: Anyone want to release a movie wide? Anyone?

So I missed the past couple weeks of movie releases for some reason, but you can see the whole month of December here if you wonder what I thought was going to happen (ironically the film featured in that first photo got delayed to May 2009).

12/19

Wide

SEVEN POUNDS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Will Smith tries to atone for some bad things.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Gabriele Muccino and Smith did a great job (or so I’m told) in 2006 with Pursuit of Happyness and I love me some Barry Pepper, so there’s hope there. On the other hand, writer did an ep of Sabrina the Teenage Witch and a couple of 8 Simple Rules. Nothing against those shows, but not a resume typical of a heavy December pic. Early buzz is not great.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The trailer is not very clear. That will make it a tougher sell to the Smith faithful. And Yes Man won’t help. But it’s still a Smith flick. $97mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not with these reviews.

THE TALE OF DESPEREAUX

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Mouse-a-touille

WILL IT SUCK?
Co-director Sam Fell also co-directed the better-than-expected Flushed Away. But the real winner here is Gary Ross, who adapted the Newbery Award-winning book by Kate DiCamillo. He’s a master at taking a cheesy premise and spinning it into gold (Big, Pleasantville, Dave). Early buzz is mixed-to-bad.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Between Yes Man this week and Bedtime Stories the next, it’s gonna get killed. $51mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not so much.

YES MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember when Jim Carrey couldn’t tell a lie? Well, now he can’t say “no.”

WILL IT SUCK?
From likeable director Peyton Reed (Down With Love, Bring It On) and a group of writers who have worked on everything from acting in Liar, Liar to directing Forgetting Sarah Marshall – oh, and they’ve done some writing, too. Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Marley and Me ups the cute quotient the following week, but holiday Carrey is usually a safe bet. $111mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but Carrey’s turn as Scrooge and all of the ghosts that haunt him in next year’s A Christmas Carol might put him in the running then.

Limited

THE WRESTLER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Darren Aronofsky revives Mickey Rourke’s career.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick, but mostly for Rourke. Won the Golden Lion at Venice. Aronofsky is a phenomenal director (and I say that feeling that two out of his three features are flawed-but-interesting), but the trailer is intriguing because this does not look like an Aronofsky film. I’m curious to see the approach he takes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Crowded season, but I have a feeling that Searchlight can spin this into a minor hit, what with the redemptive storyline and all. $22mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Rourke will probably have the honor of losing to Sean Penn for Best Actor.

NOTHING BUT THE TRUTH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
I Couldn’t Afford the Rights to the Valerie Plame Story So I Wrote This Instead

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz says it’s good, but uneven and overdone (which is not far from the reception writer/director Rod Lurie’s The Contender got). Like that film, he’s assembled a strong cast: Kate Beckinsale (not Judith Miller), Vera Farmiga (not Valerie Plame), Alan Alda, Angela Bassett and Matt Dillon.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without the budget to make as big a deal out of itself as The Contender did, this will have a hard time. $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No money for that campaign either.

Next Week: Look! It’s Tom Cruise! And he doesn’t suck!

Means “Ray of Light”

Here’s Dr. Wife’s favorite photo so far…

And here’s mine…

Oh, and in case you were wondering, pronounced like Helen MIRREN.

More photos here, here, and here.