Last year, I predicted that the Patriots would win, and then be ingested by the Giants.  While that didn’t happen per se, the Giants did win, and isn’t cannibalism a form of winning, and a very satisfying one at that?

As in years past, we will now try to determine who will win the Super Bowl based on how the teams’ namesakes would perform.  Here we have cardinals versus what I can only imagine are steelworkers.  This is very similar to the avian/blue collar conflict of 2006, which pitted much larger birds against these working class heroes, and one might be tempted to simply reprint that entry.

But maybe I’m being too narrow-minded.  Might the Arizona Cardinals, in fact, be named after bishops in the Catholic Church?  When you think about it, there’s no “might” about it.  Clearly we’re meant to picture ecclesiastical officials hurtling down the field plowing through their unholy opponents as their mud-doused robes flow behind them.  I mean, that makes a lot more sense than naming your team after really tiny birds, right?

So let us consider THAT contest.  And consider it well.

ABILITY TO ELECT A POPE

Clearly, the most important aspect of football is the opposing team’s ability to choose a pontiff.  That’s worth, like, 14 points at least.  It doesn’t happen very often, but it’s still more common than the home run throwback.

ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

ABILITY TO FORM A UNION

Unlike steelworkers, the clergy has yet to properly unionize.  Then again, if they ever went on strike, it would basically be against God, so I can kind of see how they wouldn’t want to go there.

ADVANTAGE: STEELERS

GAY DANCE PARTIES

If the “Homer’s Phobia” episode of The Simpsons taught us nothing else, it’s that Gay Steel Mills are not only accepted, they’re fun!  I have yet to see a robust Gay Archdiocese where everyone suddenly bursts out into a rendition of “Everybody Dance Now” (or any lesser C+C Music Factory hit, like “Freedom”).  I’m not saying it doesn’t happen.  I just haven’t seen it.

ADVANTAGE: STEELERS

STOPPING POWER, RE: T-1000

It’s common knowledge that if you want to defeat an unstoppable killing machine from the future that happens to be made from liquid metal, you take him to a steel mill (doesn’t have to be gay).  Taking that same unstoppable killing machine to a cathedral simply won’t do the trick.  However, if you are a costumed hero battling your archnemesis, it’s kind of hard to top the final conflict in a dilapidated Gothic church.  But this is the Super Bowl.  You’re much more likely to face down a liquid metal assassin.  Everybody knows that.

ADVANTAGE: STEELERS

STOPPING POWER, RE: VAMPIRES

Here the Catholic church has the edge.  I mean you’ve got your holy water, your crosses, lots of candles – there’s your fire, big windows to let in sunlight, some stuff made out of wood, hell, they might even have some garlic lying around, you never know.  Now, in some vampire myths steel is actually a deterrent.  But those myths are stupid.  Of course, nobody knows if you’re more likely to run into a vampire or a terminator at the Super Bowl.  Ideally you’d want the skill set to stop either.  But if it is vampires, you want a cardinal on your side.

ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

STOPPING POWER, RE: ZOMBIES

Who’s going to run into a zombie at the Super Bowl?  What’s wrong with you?

STEWARDSHIP OF YOUR IMMORTAL SOUL

You’d think the answer was clear, but you might be surprised to learn there’s an obscure passage that declares that when Peter was chosen to be the first Pope, a small band of steel artisans was chosen to be his among his first servants.  You’d be surprised because I totally made that up just now.  Seriously, what’s wrong with you?

ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

PASSING, RUNNING, KICKING, ALL THAT FOOTBALL CRAP

Look, steelworkers are more fit, generally speaking, than cardinals.  They have to be able to MAKE AND LIFT STEEL!!  The job of cardinal, while no less important, is simply not as physically demanding.  Now, if the Cardinals, as holy men, have the power to call lightning down upon the Steelers, that would counterbalance the Steelers’ physical advantage (especially given how steel attracts lightning, they become pretty easy marks).  But technically, the use of lightning is against the rules.  So it depends who refs the game.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

It would appear that the teams are evenly matched.  But if we consider the Catholic Guilt Factor, it seems clear that the Steelers will be shamed into losing.

Kevin James is more powerful than werewolves or vampires. I told you.

1/30

Wide

THE UNINVITED

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remake of another Asian horror film where ghosts try to warn people about some shit.

WILL IT SUCK?
The only thing making this stand out from any other horror this month is the big name studio (Dreamworks) and the big name supporting cast (David Strathairn, Elizabeth Banks). And for those paying close attention, this is at least based on a relatively well-regarded Korean horror film, A Tale of Two Sisters.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
First, they need to stop showing the trailer back to back with The Unborn (actually saw it happen). Next they need to release it in a month that hasn’t already had three horror movies in as many weeks. $18mil.

TAKEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Former spy (Liam Neeson) takes on slavers who’ve kidnapped his daughter (Maggie Grace).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is split. Critics are taking a love it/hate it stance whereas audiences think it’s the best thing Luc Besson’s written since The Professional. For me, I’m just psyched to see director Pierre Morel’s follow up to the fabulous Banlieue 13.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A bit of popcorn competition from Pink Panther 2 and Push the following week, but the bigger problem is that getting a wide buy-in to hardcore action flicks without A-list stars is notoriously difficult. $11mil.

NEW IN TOWN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ha! Ha! Minnesotans are funny! They’re not like city folk!

WILL IT SUCK?
The headline says it all. Early buzz is AW-ful.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Renee Zellweger hasn’t opened a romcom since 2001. I don’t think this will change that. $22mil.

Limited

THE CLASS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
To Monsieur, With Love

WILL IT SUCK?
Probably one of the best reviewed films of 2008. Won the Palm D’Or at Cannes. Nominated for a Best Foreign Oscar.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given the strong ad campaign, Oscar nod and lack of competition, pretty well. $6mil.

Next week: Both the Mac and the PC have new movies coming out.

So, as you can guess, my biggest surprise from yesterday’s Oscar nod announcements concerns the three less nominations (Screenplay, Director, Picture) The Dark Knight got than I thought it would which, coincidentally, all went to a film I expected to get only one major nod (which it got, but not in the way I expected).

Overall, I shot 70%, nailing not a single category nod for nod.

Matching the SAG nods from time to time wasn’t necessarily a bad idea, I just did it for the wrong categories. I should have gone with Richard Jenkins in the fifth slot for Best Actor, which SAG did, but I gambled that the Academy would not. Glad he got the nod, btw. Just wish more of his co-stars could have made it in as well.

I did match SAG for Best Supporting Actor, but that was a mistake. I underestimated the appeal of Michael Shannon, who I understand is the part of Revolutionary Road that even people who don’t like Revolutionary Road like.

It might have also been wise to match SAG for Best Actress, but even they didn’t get it totally right. Kate Winslet got a nod, but not for Revolutionary Road. Instead, she got it for, of course, The Reader, which suddenly everyone loves even though all of the guilds ignored it (except, of course, for a best supporting nod for Winslet from SAG). You’ve gotta recognize the Weinsteins. Even in a no-money-for-an-Oscar-campaign economy, they still got it.

I was equally clueless about Best Supporting Actress, ignoring Taraji P. Henson in favor of a Reader nod for Winslet (which she got, but in the lead category) and expecting the Academy to pick Viola Davis over Amy Adams in Doubt instead of picking both.

Speaking of Doubt, it cornered 20% of this year’s acting nods, and got pretty much anyone who had more than five lines in the movie a (well-deserved) nod.
As far as Director and Picture are concerned, it seemed wise to match DGA and PGA since they matched perfectly, and that shit never happens. Seemed wise. Wasn’t. Stupid Reader.

I also matched a guild for Adapted Screenplay, but their love for The Dark Knight did not translate.

Where I really screwed the pooch was Original Screenplay which, to be honest, I kind of pulled out of my ass anyway. Did not see Frozen River coming at all. I mean, good for them, but no way did I see it being on the Academy’s radar beyond Melissa Leo’s SAG nod. In my defense, I did say In Bruges might spoil, and if I’d really thought it through I might have given the same odds to Happy-Go-Lucky, but as it is I only called Milk and WALL•E for that award.

I guess I’m surprised that Waltz With Bashir didn’t get an animation nod, but given its Best Foreign love (and likely win) I guess I shouldn’t be.

The Film Editing category, by the way, is exactly what I (and a lot of other folks) expected the Best Picture and Director category to look like.

While I’m glad the Academy saw fit to let Slumdog Millionaire squeeze two nods out of the Best Song category, would it have killed a brother to throw my man Bruce some love?

At the end of the last century I put together my first feature film, All Night Thing. After years of not being sure what to do with it (it’s a long story involving changing media and distribution models) I’ve decided to post the whole thing online. Enjoy.

By the way, initially I was going to post this on YouTube since the embed is so easy on my blog, but they won’t accept anything over 10 minutes (even though they’ve upped their size limit to 1 GB). I thought once they start letting studios post feature length films, they’d let the common man do so as well. Not so much.

Enter Viddler, which has no time limit (only a size limit) and a bad-ass in-timeline comment feature (which I may or may not use to do some form of pop-up video commentary later) to boot.

As soon as I figger out how to embed Viddler vids on this blog, I’ll post it here as well.

Watch All Night Thing

We crowded into the conference room to watch the inauguration of the 44th President on a large screen TV. There was applause. There was standing room only. There was an hour and change without any work getting done.

My favorite part, “We reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals.”

I have underestimated Kevin James. I should have known better.

1/23

Wide

INKHEART

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Bedtime Stories, but more action-y.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Impressive given that Iain Softley has directed mostly meh fare (K-PAX, The Skeleton Key) and writer David Lindsay-Abaire co-penned the miserable Robots. This gives me hope, however, since he’s also penning Spidey 4.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With the mediocre performance of Hotel for Dogs, there’s not much in it’s way. $45mil.

UNDERWORLD: RISE OF THE LYCANS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Underworld: Backstory

WILL IT SUCK?
Even though Len Wiseman, who helmed the first two, has moved on to Die Hard-level fare, he still had a hand in the story and Undervet Danny McBride (not that one) had a hand in the screenplay, so we should see some consistency, for better or worse. One thing I can say is that they’re finally focusing on what, for my money, are the series best assets: Bill Nighy and Michael Sheen.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The introduction of Rhona Mitra is only going to make up so much for a lack of Kate Beckinsale. $44mil.

Limited

KILLSHOT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hitmen Mickey Rourke and Joseph Gordon-Levitt vs. cute couple Diane Lane and Thomas Jane.

WILL IT SUCK?
Given the film’s crappy production and distribution history, early buzz is remarkably good. Considered director John Madden’s (Shakespeare in Love, Proof) best by IMDB users.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will try to capitalize on Mickey Rourke’s Wrestler fame. $4mil.

DONKEY PUNCH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Debauchery gone wrong on a yacht turns everybody all kill-y. Those of you with access to Wikipedia or an advanced knowledge of sex slang can guess what precisely goes wrong.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With all the mainstream horror going on, it seems unlikely indie horror will get much notice. $1mil.

Next Week: The return of Squinty McGee.

The Big Five seem pretty much locked at this point, but everything else… Let’s speculate, shall we?

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Some would say it was her year. That was before the Golden Globes and the BFCAs.

Viola Davis – Doubt

Ten minutes of screen time that stands up to the two hours Streep and Hoffman get.

Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married

Kind of a long shot, but this was more interesting than matching the SAG noms exactly. Plus, I like Mad Men.

Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

The one to beat, except for the actual one to beat.

Kate Winslet – The Reader

The actual one to beat. Finally.

Sorely overlooked: Hiam Abbass in The Visitor

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin – Milk

Deserves it for the scene where he shows up drunk to Milk’s birthday party alone.

Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder

Not so much irony that he’ll get a nod for playing an Oscar-trolling actor as inevitability.

Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt

He just doesn’t stop being awesome, does he?

Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight

Yes, tragedy probably makes this a lock, but I think he would win regardless.

Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire

A long shot for the gold. Film will have to settle for winning all those other awards like Best Picture and Best Director.

And yes, I’ve matched SAG exactly here.

Sorely overlooked: Haaz Sleiman in The Visitor. Yeah. I really liked that film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Roth

Not so much an adaptation as a reinvention.

The Dark Knight – Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan

Action screenplays rarely get this kind of love. Then again, they’re rarely this good.

Doubt – John Patrick Shanley

A lot of people say this screenplay feels too much like a play. I say, “good.”

Frost/Nixon – Peter Morgan

Doesn’t feel anything like a play. I still say, “good.”

Slumdog Millionaire – Simon Beaufoy

Some of the most inventive storytelling I’ve seen in years.

Once again, I’m matching the guild.

Sorely overlooked: Son of Rambow by Garth Jennings

Best Original Screenplay

Milk – Dustin Lance Black

Made me cry.

Rachel Getting Married - Jenny Lumet

Surprisingly not nominated by the WGA, but a frontrunner in many critics circles. Not to mention dynasty (she’s Sidney’s daughter).

The Visitor – Thomas McCarthy

This slot could just as easily go to Happy-Go-Lucky, but this one’s actually on the WGA radar.

WALL•E - Andrew Stanton & Jim Reardon

No longer seems risky to tap Pixar films for this slot.

The Wrestler - Robert D. Siegel

Will the love go here if Rourke doesn’t get a win?

Sorely overlooked: In Bruges by Martin McDonagh, although it could spoil.

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married

She’ll have to fight Kate for the win. I would watch that fight.

Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky

Might benefit from a Winslet/Hathaway split vote. Think Marion Cotillard last year.

Melissa Leo – Frozen River

If SAG can remember, so can the Academy.

Meryl Streep – Doubt

Really, really deserves it.

Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

She’d be the ninth actress to get a supporting and lead nod in the same year (and the second in as many years), but the first to win both if she did.

Sorely overlooked: Anamaria Marinca in 4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days (eligibility issue: nominated for Best Foreign last year, but got it’s domestic release in 2008, so are the performances fair game?)

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road

Academy loves Leo.

Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon

It pays to keep the same cast from stage to screen.

Sean Penn – Milk

The one to beat.

Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The first time I’ve seen him truly inhabit a role.

Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

The one to beat Penn.

Sorely Overlooked: Andrew Garfield in Boy A (although I’m not sure it’s eligible since it’s been on British TV). Either lead from In Bruges. Josh Brolin in W.

Best Director

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire

And he’ll win.

David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

And he should win.

Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon

Academy loves Ron.

Chris Nolan – The Dark Knight

DGA nods made it official. The Dark Knight didn’t just happen.

Gus Van Sant – Milk

Would be his second nod. His first was 12 years ago.

Matching the DGA nods here, and we’re not done.

Sorely overlooked: Thomas McCarthy for The Visitor. That movie didn’t just happen, either.

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

And two weeks ago I would have told you it would win.

The Dark Knight

With this, could get the same major nods as Star Wars back in the day (Screenplay, Director, Supporting Actor, Picture).

Frost/Nixon

Who’da thunk that Ron Howard would be a name you’d regularly associate with Oscar-nominated flicks?

Milk

In another year, this slot might go to WALL•E, but the passing of Prop 8 puts Milk front and center.

Slumdog Millionaire

Two weeks ago I would not tell you that it would win. Now I will.

Matching the PGA nods here, and largely because for the first time in a while, the PGA and DGA nods line up exactly.

Sorely overlooked: I know you thought I would say The Visitor, but instead I’m going to say Doubt, which moved me more.

Oscar nods will be announced on Thursday, January 22 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

For the record, I shot 67% for the categories I bothered to make predictions for in the Golden Globes. About average for me. Kate Winslet, thankfully, threw me for a loop.

And somehow I’m not supposed to be surprised that Gran Torino won the weekend, but I am.

1/16

Wide

MY BLOODY VALENTINE 3-D

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Slasher remake in 3-D.

WILL IT SUCK?
Not only did director Patrick Lussier helm Dracula 2000, he also knocked out it’s two straight-to-DVD sequels, and White Noise 2 and The Prophecy 3, so those are kind of horror remakes, right? Speaking of horror sequels, one of the writers penned Jason X and is handling the Messengers sequel (oh, yes, there will be a Messengers sequel).

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t think the 3-D gimmick is going to put asses in seats, but maybe Jensen Ackles will. $37mil.

NOTORIOUS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Notorous B.I.G. bio-pic.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director George Tillman Jr. (Soul Food, Men of Honor). This does not concern me. One of the co-writers wrote Biker Boyz. He also wrote Get on the Bus. But he wrote Biker Boyz. This concerns me. (The other writer is credited with the 2nd Annual Vibe Awards.)

Good cast though, with Anthony Mackie as 2Pac, Derek Luke as Puffy and Angela Basset as Ma Bigge.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think this could be a sleeper hit. $46mil.

HOTEL FOR DOGS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kids start their own little SPCA.

WILL IT SUCK?
Writers have worked on The Drew Carey Show and the surprisingly good Sky High, so there’s hope. My favorite little factoid about this film, though, is that it’s based on a novel by the same woman who wrote the novel I Know What You Did Last Summer.

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has to deal with Inkheart next week and a little bit of Mall Cop this week, but this has dogs. $66mil.

PAUL BLART: MALL COP

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Die Chubby

WILL IT SUCK?
Let me list you the offenses of director Steve Carr: Next Friday, Dr. Dolittle 2, Daddy Day Care, Rebound, Are We Done Yet?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Busy weekend. This will be a strong test of Kevin James’ ability to open a film without a major star to play off of. $26mil.

Limited

CHANDI CHOWK TO CHINA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hey, you got your kung fu in my Bollywood musical! You got your Bollywood musical in my kung fu!

WILL IT SUCK?
I’m not going to pretend to know fuck-all about Bollywood, but I know a thing or two about kung fu cinema, and the fact that they’ve got Gordon Liu up in here tells me they’re keeping that side real. Trailer looks spectacular, except for that banana peel gag.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real competition. Might be able to tap into the Stephen Chow crowd. And straight-up Bollywood musicals have been doing better and better in the states. $4mil.

Next Week: Werewolf/Vampire

Usually have more time to make this more elaborate, but not this year…

List of Nominees

Best Screenplay

Slumdog Millionaire. Get used to hearing that.

Best Director

Danny Boyle. And it’s about time. Although I think Fincher actually did the better job this year.

Best Foreign

Your guess is as good as mine. I’ll say Waltz With Bashir just ’cause (not to mention the BFCA win). Surprised Let the Right One In didn’t make the cut given the love it got from every other critics circle.

Best Animated

Wall-E. And you can put me down for an Oscar, too.

Best Supporting Actor

Heath. Pour some out.

Best Supporting Actress

Tough call. I’ll give it to Cruz. But Marisa could be a spoiler.

Best Actress: Musical/Comedy

Sally Hawkins. And she’ll give Winslet and Hathaway a run for their Oscar, too.

Best Actor: Musical/Comedy

Bardem with a Farrell spoiler. Sadly, this is probably the most attention In Bruges will get all year.

Best Picture: Musical/Comedy

I’d say it’s between Happy-Go-Lucky and Vicky Cristina. Slight edge to Happy because their favored performer is up for Best Actress instead of Best Supporting Actress.

Best Actor: Drama

It’s between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Smart money’s on Penn, but I have a feeling that Rourke will get the Globe and Penn will get the Oscar.

Best Actress: Drama

I feel bad. Winslet’s been here five times before (numbers six AND seven tonight – and five winless Oscar nods to boot). Still, the edge goes to Hathaway.

Best Picture: Drama

Slumdog. Good night, folks.