A near $60mil open for Monsters vs. Aliens is nice, but it’s not enough to make me drink the 3-D koolaid. David Poland has some cold water for that shiznit.

4/3

Wide

FAST & FURIOUS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Reboot.

WILL IT SUCK?
Do you want to watch cars go boom? I think this will deliver. Other than that, weep for the potential that director Justin Lin showed in Better Luck Tomorrow and then didn’t deliver on, including the last Fast/Furious flick which, by the way, has the same writer as this one.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Between Adventureland this week and Hannah Montana and Observe and Report next week, you are actually shredding a little bit of the demo, but bringing back all four original leads should make for a decent opening. $108mil.

ADVENTURELAND

(Moved from March)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Superbad Amusement Park

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the director of Superbad. He writes this time, too. Last time he did both, it was The Daytrippers, which people seemed to like. Cast is good, with Jesse “Indie-er Michael Cera” Eisenberg, Bill Hader and Ryan Reynolds.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I dare say it will fare better against Furious than against the flick in its former opening slot, Monsters vs. Aliens. Still, Furious has a similar demo. $41mil.

Limited

SUGAR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Funny you should mention that. It’s about a pitcher imported from the Dominican Republic to play in the Minors.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the writer/directors of the fantastic Half Nelson, so that ’s all I needed to hear. Also, nominated for some love at Sundance and the Indie Spirit Awards.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Doesn’t have the star power of Half Nelson. $750,000.

GIGANTIC

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Indie romcom with Paul Dano and Zooey Deschanel

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good. Nice to see Dano get a lead.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Zooey’s other indie romcom is getting more buzz. $1mil.

PARIS 36

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Let’s put on a show to save our theater! In Paris! In 1936! Guess who the bad guys will be!

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the writer/director of The Chorus, a Best Foreign/Best Song nominee back in ‘05.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Doesn’t have the Oscar push of The Chorus. $2mil.

ALIEN TRESPASS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
50’s-style alien invasion flick.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but appears to be a genial enough retro-spoof. Erick McCormack as the lead sounds like inspired casting, not to mention Dan Lauria (the dad on Wonder Years) as a police chief. Director R.W. Goodwin also seems well-suited, having directed some kick-ass X-Files back in the day.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Extremely crowded weekend, and ironic tribute is tough to market. $500,000.

BART GOT A ROOM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Nerdy guy tries to find a date for the prom.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Check out the trailer to see William H. Macy with the best. hair. ever. Also starring Cheryl Hines, Jon Polito and Alia “Where Have You Been Since Arrested Development?” Shawkat.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Did I mention it’s a crowded weekend? $2mil.

THE ESCAPIST

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
British Prison Break

WILL IT SUCK?
You had me at Brian Cox and Damian Lewis, but it’s also getting mad buzz and nabbed a Best Actor award for Cox at the Scottish BAFTAs

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Maybe if it weren’t up against every other movie in the world this week. $1mil.

Next Week: Seth Rogen goes all Travis Bickle on our asses.

Score another one for Summit. Apparently I was the only one who didn’t think Knowing would make it, but it topped the weekend, beating out I Love You, Man by almost $7 million to win the weekend, and ensuring that the sub-par performance of Next would not slow the march of mediocre Nic Cage genre vehicles.

3/27

Wide

MONSTERS VS. ALIENS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The monsters are the good guys in this scenario.

WILL IT SUCK?
Five screenwriters from everything from Kung Fu Panda to The Rocker. Directors have co-credits on Shark Tale and Shrek 2 between them. Cast is less of a mixed bag: Seth Rogen, Paul Rudd, Hugh Laurie, Keifer Sutherland, Rainn Wilson, Will Arnett and Stephen Colbert.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nobody’s gonna fuck with Monsters vs. Aliens. $155mil.

THE HAUNTING IN CONNECTICUT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Betcha it’s a Yaley ghost.

WILL IT SUCK?
The writers have done everything from Carnosaur to Kalifornia with a little bit of Revenge of the Nerds thrown in for good measure. I can’t wait for the scene where the ghosts do an impromptu pop instrumental with an electric violin. Virginia Madsen gets back into the horror game for the first time since Candyman and Elias Koteas and that guy who played Beaver on Veronica Mars are along for the ride. Trailer looks exceedingly generic. Early buzz supports that meh vibe.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Feels like a body dump. $17mil.

12 ROUNDS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The rounds are challenges a cop (John Cena) has to face to win back his kidnapped girlfriend.

WILL IT SUCK?
Will probably be as good as any other Renny Harlin or WWE-produced film. Early buzz is just slightly better than all that.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably about as well as any other Renny Harlin or WWE-produced film. $19mil.

Limited

THE EDUCATION OF CHARLIE BANKS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bad boy from a kid’s past shows up again when the kid goes to college. Trouble ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
So you remember how Fred Durst directed The Longshots last year? No? Well, he did. Anyway, he directed this first. Early buzz is good. Won a Best “Made in NY” Award at Tribeca. Jesse Eisenberg stars.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much competition. $2mil.

Next Week: Vin Diesel and Paul Walker were easy gets, but the word “The” wanted too much money.

At my 7th (!) SXSW.  Thought I’d give y’all a look back at a panel I was on last year with Kevin, Carla and CC:

Courtesy of the SXSW YouTube channel.

Did not think a black man in drag could take down three young pop stars, but dem’s the numbers.

3/6

Wide

WATCHMEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Think The Incredibles, but like, really, really, really, really dark. Really.

WILL IT SUCK?
With 300, Zack Snyder took the technology pioneered in Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow and The Phantom Menace and manipulated it to recreate the look and feel of a comic. While he’s using more actual sets this time out, it seems clear (especially from the trailers) that he gets the importance of the aesthetic and how to achieve it. As far as the actual depth of the comic, which is what separates it from the pack, on a story level at least it appears he’s stayed true to the darkness. David Hayter, who co-penned the better X-films, had a hand in the adaptation. The casting is also promising, employing talented lesser-knowns like Matthew Goode and Jackie Earle Haley. The 20 minutes shown at Butt-Numb-a-thon apparently killed.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Anticipation is huge, but highest among a fairly select group of fans. I mean, had you heard of Watchmen before this movie was announced? I only know about it because I once made a concerted effort to learn more about graphic novels and this was one of the first (and most often) recommended. I wonder if this is a few people anticipating loudly instead of the masses being truly psyched. Still if 300, an even more obscure comic, could get by on kick-ass visuals, there’s no reason this can’t. $236mil.

Limited

12

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
12 Angry Russians

WILL IT SUCK?
Personally, I don’t know what you’re going to do with the near-perfect original, but early buzz is good. Nominated last year for an Oscar. Writer/director already took one home for Burnt by the Sun.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Oscar nominees from the previous year that didn’t win tend to have limited arthouse appeal. $2mil.

Next Week: Action movie Dwayne Johnson meets family movie Dwayne Johnson.