Up gives Pixar its third best open ever after The Incredibles and Finding Nemo.  Opening at Cannes gives it what is probably Pixar’s highest marketing costs in history, around $150 million on top of the $175 million it took to make the thing.

6/5

Wide

LAND OF THE LOST

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Will Ferrell is transported to a previously obscure part of my childhood.

WILL IT SUCK?
After the underrated Lemony Snicket’s, I’m willing to give director Brad Siberling the benefit of the doubt.  Having a writer from Entourage on board doesn’t hurt, but I’m not as confident in his SNL alum co-writer.

Nice to see Pushing Daisies’ Anna Friel get some work, tho.

Oh, and in a useless piece of trivia, in Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, Will Ferrell played a character named Marshall Willenholly, a play on the Land of the Lost‘s theme song lyrics, “Marshall, Will and Holly…”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
2nd frame of Up is a little bit of an issue, and Ferrell doesn’t pack ‘em in like he used to.  $101mil.

THE HANGOVER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guys wake up from a seriously effed-up bachelor party and try to figure out how they got a tiger and a baby in their room, among other things.

WILL IT SUCK?
Much as I love Todd Philips work (School for Scoundrels notwithstanding) his direction is no match for the suckage that is the writing team that gave us Rebound, Four Christmases and the recently lamented Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.  Which is too bad, since I kind of like the casting: Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms, Heather Graham, Jeffrey Tambor, Ken Jeong, Justin Bartha and Rob Riggle.

That having been said, early buzz is actually pretty good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think the lesser-known cast is a bigger issue than any outside competition.  On the other hand, better than expected buzz and stronger than expected marketing might create some adult counter-programming to Lost. $56mil.

MY LIFE IN RUINS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
How That Chick From “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” Got Her Groove Back

WILL IT SUCK?
Helmed by How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days director Donald Petrie which is not encouraging but written by longtime Simpsons scribe Mike Reiss which is.  Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No direct competition, but Wedding is not an easily repeatable success.  $40mil.

Limited

AWAY WE GO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Road movie with Maya Rudolph and John Krasinski as a couple about to have a baby looking for a place to raise it.

WILL IT SUCK?
Very curious to see what “I usually make gorgeous pictures” Sam Mendes does with a decidedly lo-fi, scrappy indie look.  Also curious to see if Krasinski can play something other than Jim.  Also curious to see what Dave Eggers’ (co-writing with wife Vendela Vida) screenwriting chops are like (especially given that he penned the upcoming Spike Jonze Where the Wild Things Are adaptation).  So you could say I was curious.

Early buzz has this as uneven at best.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
High profile indies Food, Inc. and Moon come out next week, but this should still do okay.  $8mil.

Next Week: Hey, you know what movie doesn’t need to be remade?  Yeah, that one you just remade.

For Walt’s custom post, a reward for winning the TV Episode Naming Convention Contest, I’m going to recommend a film in various genres for people unfamiliar with those genres.  We’ll begin with Walt’s suggestion, which I think is a good one, for Sci-Fi…

Sci-Fi

STAR TREK II: THE WRATH OF KHAN

It’s always a good sign when you can describe a genre film in terms that don’t include the genre.  For example, it’s perfectly accurate to say that Wrath of Khan is a movie about aging and coming to terms with mortality.  It’s also fair to say that it’s a retelling of Moby Dick with Kirk as the whale (have to give @epistemographer credit for that one).

Whatever the interpretation, it’s a great movie that uses the genre to service the story instead of the other way around.  If you’ve never seen a sci-fi movie before, this will give you a positive portrayal of the possibilities.

Action

RAIDERS OF THE LOST ARK

It’s a close call between this and Die Hard, but I almost feel like Die Hard needs to be the second action movie in the syllabus since it begins to play with the conventions of the genre by introducing limitations (e.g. you can’t leave the building).  Raiders is pure action and yet manages to hit all the high notes of solid fimmaking with a sharp script by Lawrence Kasdan, gorgeous cinematography by Douglas Slocombe, note-perfect performances by Harrison Ford (still one of his best) and the rest of the cast and rambunctious-yet-disciplined direction by some guy named Spielberg.  There’s very little you can’t teach about filmmaking using this movie.

Thriller

NOTORIOUS

If it’s a gateway thriller, how could it not be Hitchcock?  In that sense, I’m not picking Notorious to be representative of most thrillers (these days, a thriller is basically a horror movie with less gore and 10 percent more plot) but rather to highlight best practices.  What a thriller aspires to is to create tension out of the very core of its characters and how they relate.  Claude Rains longing for Ingrid Bergman that blinds him to the fact that she’s a spy and her devotion to Cary Grant which pushes her to take risks that could get her killed, an outcome that Grant has to weigh against the importance of her mission vs. his feelings for her and… Suffice it to say if these characters weren’t interesting, there would be no sense of danger.  There would be no thrill when she drops that bottle of wine just as Rains goes looking for her.  There would be no thrill during that climactic walk down the stairs.  There would be no thriller.

Romcom

WHEN HARRY MET SALLY

You could just as easily throw in The Philadelphia Story or His Girl Friday here, but I can’t have Cary Grant in every damn movie.  The reason I pick this movie as a gateway drug for romcoms is that it appeals to men as well as women, and women generally don’t need as much incentive to watch this particular genre.

The key to this film, from a male perspective, is Billy Crystal.  His performance as…um, gimme a sec…yes, Harry (had a 50/50 shot there, think I nailed it) mirrors the attitude of most men who cringe whenever the trailer for the latest Kate Hudson film appears.  He is not the Matthew McConaughey that most women are expected to drool over, and that’s the point.  His path to love and maturity through friendship (and, hence, empathy) with a woman is easier to relate to than the path of “boy who gets laid regularly meets girl who is special and so he must change his lecherous ways to become the man that she will tolerate enough to marry.”  This is mostly because that first part about getting laid regularly is true for about .02 percent of the male population.

Drama

THE LION IN WINTER

Drama is a pretty broad fucking category, but for someone who’s never seen one, the definition probably goes something like this: “A movie where nothing happens.”  Well, if that’s your definition, have I got the movie for you.  Plot-wise, absolutely nothing happens in The Lion in Winter.  Spoiler alert, but the stakes are the same at the end as they were at the beginning.  A grand total of zilch gets accomplished.  And yet, it’s one of the most riveting movies ever made.

Credit James Goldman with writing what may be the most whip-smart dialogue ever committed to the screen (adapted from his own play).  Credit Peter O’Toole and Katherine Hepburn with delivering said dialogue at the top of their game (Hepburn got an Oscar for her trouble, as did Goldman for that matter).  Credit a you-know-some-of-them-now supporting cast, including Anthony Hopkins and Timothy Dalton, with holding their own.  And credit director Anthony Harvey with staying out of the way.

Documentary

SPELLBOUND

Honestly, the documentary genre is just as broad, if not broader, than drama.  But I think if you’re going to introduce somebody, in this day and age, to the medium, you’re going to want to use an example that mimics what they’re probably used to: Reality television.

As with most reality television, Spellbound is centered on a competition, in this case the Scripps National Spelling Bee.  As with most reality television, we spend a lot of time behind the scenes getting to know the contestants.  Unlike most reality television, Spellbound isn’t interested in humiliating any of its subjects.  Its goal is empathy, not ridicule.

And that’s the principal difference between documentaries and a lot of reality television.  Documentaries don’t (for the most part) judge.  An important exception are muckraking docs, which follow a more journalistic bent, and come up with pretty harsh opinions (about government and big business, for the most part) but even most of them try to be even-handed about it (the best ones, anyway).

Spellbound also breaks the myth of the documentary as boredom incarnate.  You will be on the edge of your seat.  Moreso than most horror films, actually.

Horror

SCREAM

Scream has the advantage of acting as a primer on the horror genre while also acting as a pretty good example of the genre.  It’s scary enough to chill a newbie without completely turning them off, but isn’t so tame as to offend a hardcore fan.  (That opening sequence is pretty damn creepy in any context.)

It’s also, and here’s the point most people unfamiliar with the genre miss about horror, a lot of fun.  That it wears this fun on a post-modern sleeve simply makes it more accessible.

Children’s

THE MUPPET MOVIE

Speaking of post-modern, The Muppet Movie is the quintessential adults-can-enjoy-it-too children’s movie.  It goes so po-mo as to include a scene in which characters actually read from the script, but never forgets that it’s a movie for kids, with enough action, humor, silliness and truly great songs to keep anyone entertained.  I’m looking forward to watching it with Kiran one day and hearing him say, “Seriously, Dad, I’m trying to play that crazy new video game that you’re too old to understand that they beam directly into our brains these days cos’ it’s the future.”

Foreign

AMÉLIE

Just as no one American film can give you the flavor of all American film, no one film from another country can give you the flavor of their films, much less all other films from all other countries, so I’m going to shift the objective a bit for this one.  Here, all I’m trying to accomplish is to give the viewer a positive experience with a foreign film so they’ll want to come back for more, and hardly a more positive experience can be had, in any language, from any country, than Amélie.  The sheer creative force writer/director Jean-Pierre Jeunet invests in every shot of this film is enough to convince you that all foreign film is worth a look.  It’s not, actually, but you’ll discover that gem later.

Click to Buy:

Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Notorious

When Harry Met Sally

The Lion in Winter

Spellbound

Scream

The Muppet Movie

Amelie

So Terminator opens to what anyone but me thinks is a low number, while Night kicks so much ass that it charts as Ben Stiller’s biggest open ever, for those of you keeping track of comparative Ben Stiller box office.

In an instructive lesson about box office estimation, however, I did learn that the original Night went on to make eight times its first weekend, a gross violation of the 3x opening rule that I usually use to estimate how close I’ve come to a correct estimation when the opening weekend grosses are announced.  In other words, “nobody knows anything,” least of all me.

But you should totally believe the rest of this preview anyway.

5/29

Wide

UP

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy attaches a bunch of balloons to his house and goes on an adventure with an accidental sidekick.

WILL IT SUCK?
Not likely.  Even if you consider Monsters, Inc. to be one of the weaker Pixar efforts, it’s still a great film, and that film’s director co-directs here with up-and-comer Bob Peterson, who co-wrote Ratatouille and Finding Nemo before penning this.  Put another way: Relax.  It’s Pixar.

Early buzz is sick good.  100% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.  Tears at the Cannes screening.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Relax.  It’s Pixar.  $237mil.

DRAG ME TO HELL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Never turn an evil old woman down for a mortgage extension.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz indicates that Evil Dead II Sam Raimi is back and kicking Spider-Man 3 Raimi’s ass.  Also at 100% on RT as of this writing.  Has that ever happened for two movies on the same opening weekend?  Much less two wide releases?  In the summer?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Horror can be tricky in the summer.  $45mil.

Limited

DEPARTURES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy loses job as cellist, becomes mortician.

WILL IT SUCK?
It better not.  Flick cost me my Best Foreign Oscar pick when it upset Waltz With Bashir.  Early buzz is good.  Nabbed a score of other awards, too, including a sweep of the Awards of the Japanese Academy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Winning Best Foreign doesn’t always guarantee box office.  Especially if you weren’t well-known going into the race.  $1mil.

Next Week: That little bit of trivia about Will Ferrell’s role in Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back finally comes in handy.

I’m a big fan of Twitter Trends, but less so now that they’re on the sidebar.  Having them on the sidebar means that more people know about them and that they have greater exposure which adds up to means and motive to spam the hell out of them.  So we get some classic tweets like:

mem : [Kris Allen American Idol Adam Lambert #SaveEarl Memorial day Wolfram Alpha Gitmo]requested to get [insert url you're pimping here] as

That having been said, it is fun to see which movies are trending and (this is more of a Twitter Search function) see how different movies are faring in the Twitterverse.

Not shockingly, the only movie trending right now is Terminator: Salvation, and most of those tweets are of the “I’m going to go see it now” variety.  There are a few (mostly medium-to-good) reviews in, including @hek718 quoting my favorite words written about the movie so far:

“Terminator Salvation has no time for jokes. It’s an action movie wrapped in an action movie, with a side of bombing. – Mary Pols, Time.com”

Not as many tweets about Night at the Museum 2, but that’s probably because Salvation got a head start with a Thursday release.

A search for Angels & Demons turns up this gem from @bennydelete:

“At the theatre about to watch Angels and Demons. The theatre is filled with old people.”

I’ve been relatively disappointed with trending movie memes (like today’s #budgetbond) but I saw promise in a misinterpretation of an old trending topic called #unlikelysequels which came out #unlikelysquirrels, to which I contributed promptly:

“Squirrel as mastermind of Ponzi scheme. #unlikelysquirrels”

Unfortunately, this hashtag has yet to catch on.  It’s up to you.

We have two winners of the TV Episode Naming Convention Trivia Contest.  Their answers came in piecemeal, but when all was said and done they pretty much came in at about the same time and answered ALL correctly, so Walter James Earls and MD November will both get custom posts by yours truly on a topic of their choosing.

Here are the answers:

1. All episode titles have exactly one word.

Smallville

2. All episode titles are 1 hour blocks of time (e.g. 7. a.m. – 8 a.m.)

24

3. The number of words in the episode title correspond directly to the season in which that episode appears.  (e.g. season two episode titles have exactly two words each, season three titles have three words and so on)

La Femme Nikita

4. Each episode title begins with the word “The” (no other commonality, so the answer to #8 doesn’t apply here).

The O.C. (Not Seinfeld as I originally intended.  Both Walt, MD and Upyernoz figured out my error here.  The 4th ep of Seinfeld is called “Male Unbonding”)

5. All titles have the word “Versus” in them.

Chuck

6. All titles have the word “Vs.” in them (season one only!)

The Tick (animated)

7. All titles are also song titles (there are at least six answers to this one, you only need to give one).

(answers given)

Degrassi: The Next Generation
Supernatural
Grey’s Anatomy
Life on Mars (U.S.)
Alf

(other options)

Desperate Housewives
May to December
Goodnight Sweetheart

(I suspect there are more…)

8. All titles begin with “The One…” except for the finale, simply called “The Last One”

Friends

9. Almost all titles begin with “My,” and when they don’t, the word “Story” is the last word in the title.

Scrubs

10. The word “Night” appears in every title.

Wild, Wild West

11. The word “Love” appears in every title.

Love, American Style

12. All titles begin with the letter “L”

The L Word

13. All titles begin with a lowercase “i”

iCarly

14. All titles begin with “Everybody Hates…”

Everybody Hates Chris

15. All titles include the word “Raid”

Rat Patrol

Bonus Question: There are three shows whose season one finales all share the same seven word title. Name the shows and the title.

The shows are:

Sports Night
The West Wing
Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip

The episode title is:

“What Kind of Day Has It Been”

As you may know, those are all Aaron Sorkin shows.  Why he did that, I don’t know.  (If you do, please write in.)

A few months into 2009 it seems a good time to see how the films of 2008 have fared thus far on one of my favorite barometers, the IMDB Top 250:

#6. The Dark Knight

No longer #1.  Happy, haters?

#41. WALL•E

And, yes, early buzz on Up is that it’s even better.

#58. Slumdog Millionaire

I actually would have placed this higher, at least relative to WALL•E and The Dark Knight.

#77. Gran Torino

Still haven’t seen it, in part because the critical reception was pretty tepid.  Apparently the fans were a bit more rabid.

#90. The Wrestler

This was a really well done film.  But let’s not get crazy.

#168. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Probably as many people out there who think I overrate this film as think I underrate The Wrestler.

#191. Let the Right One In

I wasn’t as in love with this as everybody else, but definitely worth seeing.

#203. In Bruges

Underseen gem.  Hopefully this laurel will get it more eyeballs.

#216. Changeling

I know the critics were not happy with this one.  Gotta be some serious Eastwood love going on among IMDB users.

And, in case you were wondering, some of ’08 made it into the Bottom 100 as well:

#20. Disaster Movie

#40. A Fox’s Tale (random Hungarian cartoon)

#50. The Hottie and the Nottie

Anybody wanna take a wild stab as to the first title of ’09 to make it onto the Top 250?  Don’t try too hard:

#71. Star Trek

The only surprise here is that fanboys haven’t launched it into the top 25.

$48 million for Angels & Demons. $6 million less and Star Trek wins two weekends in a row. Anybody wanna take a guess as to Da Vinci‘s opening weekend?  $77 million.

5/22

Wide

TERMINATOR: SALVATION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
John Connor (Christian Bale) fights terminators in the future, and people who step in front of his light.

WILL IT SUCK?
McG is not quite the handicap you might think.  Admittedly, I actually liked the Charlie’s Angels pictures (in a shameful, “don’t look at me!” kind of way).  And Fastlane had some tight storytelling to go along with the slick visuals.  But what interests me more is the ultragrimy look he’s going for here, which is not his usual m.o.

He seems to have gained the confidence of ComiCon-goers, and what’s more, tantrum or no, Bale brings it with every performance.

All of this falls apart when you consider the screenwriters, who penned the better-than-expected Terminator 3, but also penned such fare as Catwoman and The Net.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Night at the Museum sequel is an issue.  And it’s the kid-friendlier of the two.  It would almost be better if Salvation ended up with an R to better distinguish itself.  $165mil.

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: BATTLE OF THE SMITHSONIAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Title is pretty self-explanatory.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’m still waiting for Night at the Mutter Museum.  That would be fucked up.

Same writing/directing team at work here as the first, which was fun-but-forgettable.  They’ve really bulked up the cast, adding Amy Adams, Jonah Hill, Bill Hader (whom I’m looking forward to as General Custer), Hank Azaria, Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest, Ed Helms, Craig Robinson and Clint Howard.

I’ll probably catch it when it comes to cable is what I’m saying.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Maybe not the best weekend to open, what with Up right around the corner, but I think the proof is in the original’s box office pudding.  $225mil.

DANCE FLICK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Another in the long line of Genre Movies, ‘xcept this one’s from the guys who started that trend in the first place.

WILL IT SUCK?
The Wayans Bros. versions of the _____ Movie movies are marginally better than the latter ones, but that’s essentially acknowledging that White Chicks is barely more watchable than Disaster Movie.  That having been said, I will admit to giggling more at this trailer than most Wayans fare.  Maybe it’s the introduction of the second generation of Wayans comedy (they’ve been around that long), Damien Wayans at the helm, nephew of Keenan, Marlon et al.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pretty much in its own niche, so fairly insulated from the blockbusters.  $44mil.

Limited

EASY VIRTUE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Adaptation of the Noel Coward play in which guy brings his American bride home to meet his British family.  Period piece culture clash ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  You’ve got Colin Firth spewing witty Noel Coward bon mots, so why not?  From the director of The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert and co-starring Jessica Biel and Kristen Scott Thomas, who got a Best Supporting Actress nod from the British Independent Film Awards for this one.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has art-house-friendly written all over it.  $10mil.

THE GIRLFRIEND EXPERIENCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The title refers to a especially thorough form of prostitution.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mad good for this, Steven Soderbergh’s latest foray into lo-fi digital reality.  Adult film star Sasha Grey’s lead perf is getting raves.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Soderbergh’s forays into lo-fi digital reality tend not to do so well.  $1mil.

Next Week: The redemption of Sam Raimi.

I’ve finally bothered to categorize the 50 Greatest Action Sequences posts so you can see them all here.  Still a lot of scrolling and pagination, but at least they’re all in one continuum now.

It seems like the last Dave Day was only…oh, this is the first one.

btw, I’m going to announce the answers and winner of the TV Episode Naming Convention Triva Contest next Wednesday (5/20).

Once an obscure piece of industry minutae, the name of an episode of television is now an easy-access item, so much so that some television shows choose to put their own signature on how they name their episodes, knowing these names now have an audience. (For example, all episodes of Monk have the words “Mr. Monk” in the title.)

See if you can name that TV show based on the episode naming convention.

Good luck!  Winner gets a custom post from yours truly (like this one I did for the winner of the Denzel Washington trivia contest):

(Note: Naming conventions may not apply to the pilot, which is often just called “Pilot”)

1. All episode titles have exactly one word.

2. All episode titles are 1 hour blocks of time (e.g. 7. a.m. – 8 a.m.)

3. The number of words in the episode title correspond directly to the season in which that episode appears.  (e.g. season two episode titles have exactly two words each, season three titles have three words and so on)

4. Each episode title begins with the word “The” (no other commonality, so the answer to #8 doesn’t apply here).

5. All titles have the word “Versus” in them.

6. All titles have the word “Vs.” in them (season one only!)

7. All titles are also song titles (there are at least six answers to this one, you only need to give one).

8. All titles begin with “The One…” except for the finale, simply called “The Last One”

9. Almost all titles begin with “My,” and when they don’t, the word “Story” is the last word in the title.

10. The word “Night” appears in every title.

11. The word “Love” appears in every title.

12. All titles begin with the letter “L”

13. All titles begin with a lowercase “i”

14. All titles begin with “Everybody Hates…”

15. All titles include the word “Raid”

Bonus Question: There are three shows whose season one finales all share the same seven word title. Name the shows and the title.

You can put your answers in the comments if you’re not afraid of everyone else seeing them, or you can e-mail me the answers or DM me in Twitter.