Flickchart.

It’s a simple idea, and that’s why it works. You just rank movies.  Two at a time.  Also, it lets you know how your preferences are shaping up in the form of a list. And, of course, I know the more movies I rank, the more “accurate” the list becomes.

This was chemically engineered to hook movie geeks.

After ranking 749 rankings, my current top ten stands at:

1. Raiders of the Lost Ark
2. The Shawshank Redemption
3. Fight Club
4. Memento
5. Die Hard
6. Finding Nemo
7. Dr. Strangelove
8. Grindhouse
9. The Usual Suspects
10. The Sting

Not perfect.  But you should have seen it when Die Another Day was number one.

One of my greatest challenges so far, deciding which was worse: Alien vs. Predator or Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.  (I know I gave the latter a good review once, but after seeing it a second time I realized why it sucked, but that’s another post for another time.)

You find that some movies simply cannot be compared.  When Harry Met Sally vs. Terminator 2?  Both are classics of their respective genres.  And you find yourself using differrent criteria with different films.  Psycho beats out most films because I admire its near-perfect construction, but do I actually enjoy watching it more than Goonies?  Not so much.

So, I make these predictions.  Sometimes I’m right.  Sometimes I’m wrong.  But I’ve rarely sat down and actually checked.  So let’s go back to the weekend of August 3, 2007 and see if my predictions for box office rang true.  All gross figures are for domestic theatrical, rounded to the nearest million.

Underdog

My Prediction:$50 million

Actual Gross: $44 million

Managed to balance a crowded family-friendly time frame with the fact that people love talking animals.

El Cantante

My Prediction: $26 million

Actual Gross: $8 million

Do you remember this film?  J-Lo and Marc Anthony in a film together for the first time ever?  Nothing?  Yeah, people weren’t paying attention then either.  Even less than I imagined they would.

The Bourne Ultimatum

My Prediction: $167 million

Actual Gross: $227 million

I expected Rush Hour 3, which came out the following week, to present a bit of a challenge, but I didn’t think I was lowballing much.  The Bourne Supremacy had made $176 million, so that’s probably why I went with a conservative figure.  This is one of those cases where I’m glad to be wrong.  Movie rocked.

Hot Rod

My Prediction: $20 million

Actual Gross: $14 million

And keep in mind, Andy Samberg was even hotter then.

Bratz

My Prediction: $33 million

Actual Gross: $10 million

This is one of those cases where my cynicism about good things happening to bad films overreacted.  Yes, Bratz dolls had a following, but it wasn’t that big.

Becoming Jane

My Prediction: $2 million

Actual Gross: $19 million

I will never underestimate Anne Hathaway again.  Although you gotta be happy that a movie about Jane Austen did almost double the business of Bratz.

The Ten

My Prediction: $2 million

Actual Gross: $1 million

A little over $750,000 actually.  Just not that many State fans out there, I guess.

No real surprise that G-Force and Ugly Truth more than doubled Orphan’s gross.  Kind of a surprise that neither did half as well on Rotten Tomatoes (not that Orphan did well, exactly).

7/31

Wide

FUNNY PEOPLE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dying comedian (Adam Sandler) takes newbie (Seth Rogen) under his wing.

WILL IT SUCK?
As a writer/director, Judd Apatow is 2 for 2 (The 40-Year-Old Virgin, Knocked Up).  Interesting to see how he works in the cinematography of Janusz “I usually work for Spielberg” Kaminski and the comedy stylings of Sarah Silverman.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Sandler fan base stays away more when they detect a serious vibe in his work.  Still, you’re combining Apatow and (at least part of) Sandler’s demos.  $111mil.

ALIENS IN THE ATTIC

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Teenagers vs. Aliens

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s from the director of Like Mike and The Honeymooners.  What could go wrong?  Granted one of the Curse of the Wererabbit writers is up in here, but the trailer sucks balls.  On paper, “remote control kung-fu grandma” seems interesting.  In practice it looks like a Kung Fu Hustle rip.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
G-Force the week before and G.I. Joe the week after are an issue.  But that grandma could put butts in seats.  $56mil.

THE COLLECTOR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Thief vs. slasher

WILL IT SUCK?
Intriguing premise, but coming from the co-writers behind the last few Saws and all of the Feast franchise, I probably can’t stomach it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Last-minute launch kind of unnerving.  $8mil.

Limited

ADAM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An Asperger’s Syndrome love story.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good.  Won the Alfred P. Sloane award at Sundance, which goes to a film that focuses on science or scientists.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Rough waters.  $1mil.

THE COVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc exposing some fucked up shit going on with dolphins in Japan.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick good.  Best doc awards at Sundance, Hot Docs, Seattle and more.  And even horror maven Scott Weinberg found it especially disturbing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Strong buzz should help.  Still, docs have fallen on hard times lately.  $2mil.

LORNA’S SILENCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Twisted tale involving marriage for citizenship and murder.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  From the Dardennes Bros. (L’Enfant).  Won the screenplay award at Cannes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Name five people you know who know who the Dardennes are.  $750,000.

NOT QUITE HOLLYWOOD: THE WILD, UNTOLD STORY OF OZPLOITATION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc on Aussie grindhouse flicks of the 70’s and 80’s.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is fantastic, if you’re into that sort of thing.  Listening to Quentin Tarantino enthuse about this stuff would be entertaining enough, but apparently there’s more.  There’s an unbelievably NSFW trailer on the movie’s official site that will let you know pretty quickly if it’s for you.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given that Grindhouse itself didn’t do that well, I don’t have high hopes here.  $500,000.

THIRST

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vampire priest.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, if a little tempered, though it did tie for the Jury Prize at this year’s Cannes.  This is from Chan Wook Park, who made me his bitch with Oldboy, so I’m predisposed to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Based on an Emile Zola novel.  Didn’t see that coming.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even Oldboy follow-up Lady Vengeance, which was released when there was a lot more heat on Park, didn’t do very well.  $500,000.

Next week: Big shock: The first performance to get serious Oscar buzz this year is from Meryl Streep.

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Went to a car show in Media the other week…

Very cool.  But in the back of one of the cars I saw something that freaked me out.

At first I thought, “Huh. Someone made a big-ass Chucky doll.”  But later I thought, “Oh, my God!  Someone left Carrot Top in the back seat by himself!”

People are so thoughtless.

Instead of being scattered all across my blog, you can now find the complete list (or at least all the posts) of 50 Greatest Character Actors here.  Can you believe this thing is four years old?  Enjoy!

I’m not jumping on the Best. Potter. Ever. bandwagon (still torn between 3 and 4), but Half-Blood Prince is some damn fine storytelling, and I have renewed confidence in Yates’ helming the last two.

Oh, and Hangover is now the highest grossing R-rated comedy of all time.  My prediction of a $56 million gross was probably a little short.

7/24

Wide

G-FORCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It’s kind of like Quantum of Solace if James Bond were a bunch of computer-generated guinea pigs.

WILL IT SUCK?
When Ted Elliot and Terry Rossio (Pirates trilogy) get together with Cormac and Marianne Wibberly (Sequelae to Bad Boys and Charlie’s Angels), your get National Treasure: Book of Secrets which, frankly, was kind of fun.  Still not interested.  (I have to wonder, though, will this be the closest I ever get to my dream of Bill Nighy playing a Bond villain?)

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On the heels of Beverly Hills Chihuahua and Bolt, Hotel for Dogs fell flat on its face, so it’s hard to say that cute furries are a lock.  Further problematized by Aliens in the Attic coming out the following week.  Still, I’m going to bet high.  $102mil.

THE UGLY TRUTH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
How to Get a Guy in Ten Days

WILL IT SUCK?
Do 21, Monster-in-Law and Win a Date With Tad Hamilton cancel out Legally Blonde, cos that’s what we’re dealing with directorially here?  The writing team behind Blonde, not to mention 10 Things I Hate About You and Ella Enchanted are also up in here, so there’s hope.

Early buzz is meh.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think just about everybody who’s going to has seen The Proposal, so there’s a window.  $77mil.

ORPHAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Oh, here’s your problem right here.  Someone set this adopted kid to “evil.”

WILL IT SUCK?
You know, I like Peter Sarsgaard as much as the next guy, but damn.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No competition, but the Creepy Kid subgenre kind of has a ceiling.  $33mil.

Limited

THE ANSWER MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
As Good As Jeff Daniels Gets

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good.  Nominated for a Grand Jury Prize at Sundance.  Shot in Philly – just around the corner from my old place for one scene.  That last part probably doesn’t matter.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Likely expansion of (500) Days of Summer should provide some healthy competition.  $3mil.

IN THE LOOP

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Imagine if The Office took place at 10 Downing St.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding.  Based on the acclaimed British comedy series The Thick of It.  Funny-ass trailer and clip.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The lack of a name cast (minus James Gandolfini in a supporting role) will hurt.  $1mil.

SHRINK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kevin Spacey plays a shrink-to-the-stars who has plenty of issues of his own.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Director has done some good TV (Chuck, Battlestar Galactica, Friday Night Lights).  Kevin Spacey is Kevin Spacey.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Definitely has the biggest star in the pack, but does anyone know about it? $2mil.

Next Week: Remote control kung fu grandma.

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Here are the charts for life after theatrical, and a few notes on those who might be getting a second chance at paying the bills.

DVD

(source: Billboard.com – includes television)

1. 12 Rounds
2. Princess Protection Program
3. Gran Torino
4. Entourage: The Complete Fifth Season
5. Confessions of a Shopaholic
6. Jonas Brothers: The Concert Experience
7. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail
8. Stargate: Atlantis: Season 5
9. Inkheart
10. Transformers
    

WWE Films getting another shot with 12 Rounds at number one after pulling down only $12 million theatrical.

Disney Channel original movie Princess Protection Program coming in at #2 with the exact opposite demo.

I kind of forgot about Madea Goes to Jail and just assumed it didn’t do that well because I didn’t hear much about it.  Actually, it made $90 million theatrical.  By far his best showing EVER. Compare that to the Jonas Brothers concert movie, which scored only $7 million more than 12 Rounds.

That’s right, Tyler Perry kicked the Jonas Brothers’ collective ass.

Inkheart ($17 million) getting a new lease on life at #9.

And Transformers, for some reason back on people’s minds, rounds out the top ten.

iTunes

(source iTunes)

1. Van Wilder: Freshman Year
2. Confessions of a Shopaholic
3. The Haunting in Connecticut
4. Princess Protection Program
5. Push
6. Knowing
7. Twilight
8. Fired Up!
9. The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
10. Gran Torino

People love them some Van Wilder.

Haunting in Connecticut getting a second life after a $55 million run (kind of surprised it made that much).

Knowing at #6 after making about $80 million theatrical, so it shouldn’t be too much of a shocker that it’s doing well.  I think the shocker is that it did $80 million theatrical, since people seemed to forget about it right after it came out.

Push, on the other hand, has a lot more to improve on  after making $31 million.

Fired Up! (remember that?) getting a second shot after $17 million domestic.  Teen comedy survives well on home vid.  Maybe that’s why they keep making them.

Hitchiker’s squeaking in at #9, probably due to the $4.99 price tag.

Illegal Downloads

(source: Torrentfreak.com)

1. Duplicity
2. Watchmen
3. Land of the Lost
4. Knowing
5. Adventureland
6. Miss March
7. Angels and Demons
8. 17 Again
9. Transformers 2
10. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

Duplicity getting more love here than in theaters.  Bodes well for video after a disappointing $40 million theatrical bow.

Land of the Lost also doing better here than in theaters.  It has made only $8 million more than Duplicity thus far but cost $40 million more (not counting marketing costs, which I’m going to guess were a touch higher than Duplicity’s as well).

Adventureland smack in the middle.  I keep forgetting to tell people that it’s one of the best movies I’ve seen all year.

Miss March coming in at #6 belying a miserable $4.5 million theatrical gross.  Again, the teen comedies have an afterlife.

Transformers 2 at #9 after spending its first two weeks at #4.  Kind of surprised it was never #1.

Brothers

No amount of love for Jim Sheridan or U2’s “Bad” can change the fact that this looks too much like a Lifetime TV movie.

Zombieland

The piano is where this goes from being a good trailer to a great trailer.

No Impact Man

Fascinating. Wonder how many different ways they’ll play with the irony of the title.

Flame + Citron

Every time I think I’m through with the WWII genre, somebody releases a Black Book or a Counterfeiters.  Not saying this is going to be as good, but, hey, Mads Mikkelsen!

The Informant!

Getting a very Burn After Reading vibe off this one, which I’m sure is the point.  There’s gotta be a great compare/contrast film theory paper to be written about Soderbergh and the Cohens someday.

Bruno, which is just as funny, that’s-just-wrong and brilliant as Borat tops the weekend to no one’s surprise. But what does surprise is The Proposal being on track to surpass Speed as Sandra Bullock’s highest grossing movie ever.

Oh, and as Hurt Locker continues to expand, I continue to say go see it already.

7/17

Wide

HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE (7/15)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Voldemort Begins

WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. You’ve got David Yates back, and while he’s not my fave HP director, the return of Steve Kloves to screenplay duty should more than make up for that. Other than that, you’ve got Jim Broadbent added to an already magnificent cast and one of the most consistent franchises in movie history.

Early buzz is of the Best. Potter. Ever. variety. Maybe I’ll have to reconsider Yates.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nicely distanced from anything that could provide a challenge (namely, Transformers). $307mil.

Limited

(500) DAYS OF SUMMER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A year and a half in the life of the cutest indie couple ever (Joseph Gordon-Levitt & Zooey Deschanel).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is hellagood. Kind of makes you forget the screenwriters co-wrote Pink Panther 2. Plus, love me some Joe Gordon-Levitt.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Buzz has been building since Sundance, and upbeat (or at least sold as relatively upbeat) indie comedies are pretty box-office-flammable. $18mil.

Next week: Does this mean I don’t have to ever see the trailer for Orphan again? Cos’ that would be excellent if you could make that happen.

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My relationship with my dad is complicated.  Suffice it to say I first met him when I was 25 years old.  The circumstances surrounding why that happened that way are complex and leave no heroes and no villains.

In the end, though, to see him there for Kiran and to be there myself for Kiran means so much more in that context; and so this photo is…important.