Pretty on target with my Surrogates prediction, and it’s not too far a leap from that to guess that Cloudy would hold on to the top spot.  Way off on Fame, though, which makes me happy because maybe this will make Hollywood think twice about unnecessary rema-…I’m sorry, I almost got through that with a straight face.

10/2

Wide

CAPITALISM: A LOVE STORY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Michael Moore takes on the financial meltdown.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is par for the course for Moore, although on IMDb this is one of his lowest-rated films.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Coming out on a crowded weekend, although I have a feeling that Invention of Lying will actually be this film’s biggest competition.  By the way, turns out this came out in limited release last week and did the best per screen of any film this year, so, sky’s the limit.  $40mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
An easy bid for a Best Doc nod.

ZOMBIELAND

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jesse Eisenberg of the Dead

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Also starring Woody Harrelson, Mila Kunis and Abigail Breslin.  Don’t know much about the creators, but the trailer’s a hoot.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
More Shaun of the Dead than Scream.  $18mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best Zombie Kill.  Give it time.  The Academy will get there.

WHIP IT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ellen Page gets into roller derby.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  The directorial debut of Drew Barrymore.  With Alia Shawkat, Kristen Wiig, Zoe Bell, Marcia Gay Harden, and Daniel Stern.  And roller derby handles like Malice in Wonderland and Eva Destruction.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Similarly demo’d Fame crashed and burned, but this has more names.  $44mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even movies about mainstream sports rarely get a nod.

THE INVENTION OF LYING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In an alternate universe, everyone tells the truth, until one guy (Ricky Gervais) invents the lie.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick.  Gervais co-writes and co-directs, and look at his co-stars: Jason Bateman, Rob Lowe, Tina Fey, Jonah Hill, Christopher Guest, Jeffrey Tambor, Louis C.K., John Hodgman, and Stephen Merchant.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s a ridonculously crowded weekend.  And next week the more box-office-friendly Vince Vaughan gives audiences a more well-known option.  $26mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If there were ten screenplay nominees, maybe.

Limited

A SERIOUS MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The trials and tribulations of a put-upon man in 1967 Minnesota.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as the Coen Bros’. finest since No Country.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This doesn’t have the cast of No Country.  This doesn’t have the cast of Blood Simple.  You might recognize Richard Kind.  Still, the Coen Bros. name alone should put butts in seats.  $9mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A screenplay nod is not out of the question.

MORE THAN A GAME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
LeBron Begins

WILL IT SUCK?
Credit director Kristopher Belman with wicked sharp foresight.  He started filming LeBron James and friends when they were in high school.  Now all of that footage pays off in what’s being hailed as one of the better sports docs in recent memory.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sports docs rarely make money.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ditto above for Oscar nods.

AFTERSCHOOL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Some disturbing shit revolving around the violent, drug-related death of two girls at a preppy high school.

WILL IT SUCK?
Been wowing the crowds at several fests since Cannes ‘08.  Early buzz is good, though it is supposed to be a difficult slog.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hard to build up momentum for something like this.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Will probably fly under the radar.

Next Week – Chris Rock: Documentarian.

Did you know? You can get this preview e-mailed to you:

Sign Up for Hotcha Zimzam Movie Preview Newsletter

Email Marketing by VerticalResponse

The highest-grossing film of all time starting with the letter “A” is…

Aladdin

Aladdin made $217,350,219 domestic.  The second place film made a mere $23,245 less.

Alvin and the Chipmunks

I, too, am disturbed by this revelation, and am only comforted by the fact that in adjusted dollars Aladdin blows it out of the water.

(My friend Amber, by the way, is the one person to answer this correctly.  She chimed in on Facebook)

Third place depends upon who persnickety you are about titles.  Technically speaking, the title of the third Austin Powers film is Austin Powers in Goldmember, and it made $213,117,789.  If, however, you like to think of that movie as Goldmember (and Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me, which comes in fourth, as The Spy Who Shagged Me), then Armageddon, which many of you guessed, comes in third with $201,578,182.

Yup, Alvin and the Chipmunks made more money than Armageddon.

By the way, those of you who guessed American Pie forgot (as I did) that American Pie 2 actually made more money than its predecessor, and would have been the better guess ($145,096,820, for those of you keeping score).

The one on the bottom is much, much wealthier.

Of course Jesse Eisenberg will play Mark Zuckerberg.  Although my new rule about every Eisenberg film having to fit the pattern of “NounLand” (Adventureland, Zombieland) means the title will have to change to Facebookland which ,frankly, is a better title than The Social Network.  Seriously?  Is a movie about Google going to be called The Search Engine?  Of course, with a script from Sorkin and direction by Fincher, you could call it Lint and I’d come running.

What is the highest-grossing film of all time starting with the letter “A”?

Overestimated the appeal of Jennifer’s Body – the movie, not Jennifer Aniston. Waaaay overestimated her appeal.

9/25

Wide

SURROGATES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In a world (can you believe I’ve never started a synopsis with that before!? It’s so exciting!) where people live their lives through android avatars, one man (Bruce Willis, natch) must figure out how someone is killing real people by killing their robot counterparts.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Jonathan Mostow has done some good thrillers (U571, Breakdown) and the writers have done a good thriller (The Game) and some not so much (The Net, Catwoman). They all worked on Terminator: Rise of the Machines which was okay, so…probably a good premise not exploited to its full potential is what we have in store.

Oh, and if I were Bruce Willis choosing my surrogate I would not choose that hair.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much in the way of action right now, so this could stand a chance. $50mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but how many Academy members do you think would send their 20-year-old surrogates in their place to the ceremony if they could?

FAME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Step Up 2 the Remake

WILL IT SUCK?
The original Fame was directed by Alan Parker (Mississippi Burning, Pink Floyd: The Wall, The Commitments). This one was directed by a guy who did some Pussycat Dolls eps. And with that, we know why this film is being remade.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People watch that Pussycat Dolls shit. $59mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The original Fame was nominated for six Oscars and won two (Best Music & Song). Somehow I don’t think that’s going to happen here.

PANDORUM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two spaceship crewmembers wake up in deep space with no idea what’s going on. And that’s when the CHUDs come after them. (I don’t know if it’s CHUDs actually, but some bad shit goes down).

WILL IT SUCK?
The involvement of Paul W.S. Anderson at any level makes me suspicious (here he produces), but I love me some Ben Foster and the latest trailer actually looks pretty intriguing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The horror contingent is pretty well covered this month, and Zombieland is just around the corner. $28mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but mark my words, Ben Foster will get a nod someday (he was rumored to be a contender for 3:10 to Yuma).

Limited

COCO BEFORE CHANEL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Coco Begins

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Director Anne Fontaine (The Girl From Monaco) directs and co-writes with her sister. Audrey Tatou stars as Coco Chanel.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
About as good a shot as any foreign film could hope for, with a recognizable star and subject. $11mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Tatou could get the nod she already deserved for Amelie.

THE BOYS ARE BACK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Recently widowed man (Clive Owen) copes with single fatherhood.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Scott Hicks, who lost some credibility with No Reservations, but will never really lose credibility after Shine. From a guy who wrote Prime Suspect 2 for British TV, so he has to be good.

Early buzz is very good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With a feel-good trailer like this, I could actually see this being marketed wide. $7mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
People are talking about Clive, but I don’t know if they’re talking that much.

Next Week: The world’s funniest human directs a movie.

This month, the studios seem to be packing each weekend with as much throwaway fare as possible to clear the shelves for next month’s tentpoles. But there are still some potential gems.

4/6

Wide

ARE WE DONE YET?

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Mr. Cube Builds His Dream House

WILL IT SUCK?
What is John C. McGinley doing up in here? I know it’s probably the last season of Scrubs, but seriously. From the writer of Saving Silverman and the director of Next Friday, Rebound and Daddy Day Care.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ice Cube in a family-friendly comedy is kind of like Matthew McConaughey in a romanitc comedy, unstoppable for reasons beyond compreshension. $73mil.

GRINDHOUSE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Robert Rodriguez and Quentin Tarantino bring back the eponymous genre with two films for the price of one.

WILL IT SUCK?
Ignoring for a moment the fact that the last time these two directors got together the result was From Dusk Til Dawn, I’m actually pretty psyched. Both, on their own, are capable of tremendous filmmaking, and the little bit I saw that Rodriguez presented at SXSW left me wanting more. The cast is awesome: Rose McGowan, Freddy Rodriguez, Josh Brolin, Michael Biehn, Naveen Andrews, Nicky Katt, Tom Savini, Kurt Russell, Zoe Bell (Uma’s stunt double from Kill Bill and the focus of the excellent doc Double Dare) and Danny Trejo.

This is the kind of movie where Nic Cage has a cameo as a guy named Fu Manchu in a fake trailer called Werewolf Women of the SS directed by Rob Zombie and starring Sybil Danning. What’s not to love?

Early buzz is very good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
300 proved that a hard R doesn’t necessarily mean low box office. $85mil.

THE REAPING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hilary Swank investigates modern-day Biblical plagues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Given the numerous release delays, the fact that it’s Dark Castle, the Revolution Studios of horror, and that this comes from the writer of the House of Wax remake, I’m going to say that’s a good bet.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Are they trying to bury this by opening against Grindhouse? $12mil.

FIREHOUSE DOG

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Big time Hollywood dog joins small town firehouse.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Todd Holland’s feature film resume is a tad slim (remember The Wizard with Fred Savage?), but in between he’s directed a lot of good TV (everything from Malcom in the Middle to Wonderfalls). The writers have done everything from Face/Off to The Mask (I guess those are thematically similar) and one of them did the story for Curious George but I’m still convinced this is going to suck.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will play The Reaping to Are We Done Yet’s Grindhouse. $24mil.

Limited

THE HOAX

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of a guy who wrote a fake biography of Howard Hughes.

WILL IT SUCK?
Lasse Hallstrom has fallen on critical hard times of late, but early buzz for his latest is great. Certainly has a solid cast, with Richard Gere, Alfred Molina, Hope Davis, Julie Delpy, Stanley Tucci and Zjelko Ivanek among others. The delayed release makes me a little nervous, but one theory holds that the faliure of Hollywoodland and a crowded Oscar season led Miramax to push this from last fall.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I just don’t see that much enthusiasm out there at this point. Strangely, star-studded period indies often have a hard time in the art house. $4mil.

BLACK BOOK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A Dutch Jewish woman does whatever it takes to survive WWII.

WILL IT SUCK?
It looks like Paul Verhoeven has made his first film in decades that doesn’t camp itself out of existence. Not only that, but early reviews have that this goes beyond “not embarassing” to “holy crap that was good” levels of quality.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Verhoeven isn’t feeding soldiers to bugs or showing off Sharon Stone’s junk, it’s hard for him to draw an audience. $1mil.

THE TV SET

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
David Duchovny tries to protect his creation from TV execs.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz from critics has it that this is (a) too Inside Sports for the casual viewer and (b) has nothing new to say about the Evils of the Television Power Structure. Early buzz from audiences has this as a better film than writer/director Jake Kasdan’s previous efforts The Zero Effect and Orange County. All I know is it’s got Judy Greer in a supporting role and ain’t nothing wrong with that.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m thinking people will stay home and watch 30 Rock for their TV satire fix. $1mil.

4/13

Wide

PERFECT STRANGER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A movie just about Balki. Actually Halle Berry goes undercover to try to ferret out Bruce Willis as a killer using the interwebs.

WILL IT SUCK?
Fueled by one of the worst trailers in recent memory, I’m going to guess this will fall into the Who’s That Girl class of James Foley flicks and not the Glengarry Glen Ross class. Oh, and it’s Revolution studios in one of their dying gasps of suckage.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As tired as people claim to be of Willis and Berry, they still go to see their movies. $37mil.

DISTURBIA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Burbs but, you know, scary.

WILL IT SUCK?
DJ Caruso can direct well when he’s given good material (The Salton Sea) and here he probably has better material to work with than his last film (Two for the Money). With a screenplay co-written by better-than-average thriller Red Eye scribe Carl Ellsworth, we could be in the ballpark. Early reviews are mixed, but lean toward good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Teen skew could approach When a Stranger Calls dollars. $38mil.

PATHFINDER

(Delayed from January)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Animated tale of the bravest little SUV ever! Actually, Norseman raised by Native Americans kicks Norse ass.

WILL IT SUCK?
On its third delay. Marcus Nispel (Texas Chainsaw remake) directs. The writer of Alexander did the screenplay. Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Strangely, all those delays have given it time to pick up interest. $41mil.

AQUA TEEN HUNGER FORCE COLON MOVIE FILM FOR THEATERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The colon is a punctuation mark.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’ve only seen a few ATHFs in my life, and they’ve all been funny. Same team here, so no reason to think this will be much different. Early buzz is very good. Great trailer, btw.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cult followings don’t usually generate huge b.o. $29mil.

REDLINE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Like Cannonball Run, but with a shorter attention span.

WILL IT SUCK?
Those of you who guessed that this was directed by a stunt coordinator may advance to the next round.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will have to split the tweens with Disturbia. $22mil.

SLOW BURN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
D.A. Ray Liotta gets drawn into a noir involving his A.D.A. (Jolene Blalock).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as a lame Usual Suspects rip-off. And to think this came from the scribe behind Murder at 1600 and The Art of War.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it could decide whether or not it’s a limited or wide release, that might help. No, not really. $16mil.

Limited

YEAR OF THE DOG

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Must Love Dead Dogs

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Can you believe writer/director Mike White used to pen Dawson’s Creek? If that doesn’t sound odd to you, go watch Chuck & Buck. Here he directs Molly Shannon, Peter Sarsgaard, Regina King and John C. Reilly.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Mike White’s brand of comedy isn’t always everyone’s cup of tea, but the buzz has it he’s softened his edge a little here, which might make for a broader appeal. $8mil.

LONELY HEARTS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
John Travolta and James Gandolfini track down Jared Leto and Salma Hayek in a retelling of the Lonely Hearts Killers true crime story.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but if you ask me, opening up a club where B-list celebrities hunt down C-list celebrities would make a great reality television show.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Don’t think the latest Travolta comeback via Wild Hogs will help this one. $2mil.

4/20

Wide

VACANCY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Luke Wilson and Kate Beckinsale can check out any time they like, but they can never leave. Actually, they can’t check out, either.

WILL IT SUCK?
Though I can’t tell you jack about the writer, the director did the moody Kontroll and could be very interesting as a horror director. Trailer actually looks pretty good, which I can’t say for 90 percent of the the horror previews out there.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second frame of Disturbia might be a little bit of a challenge and Next could draw a little of this flick’s demo the following week, but this could still have a respectable open. $53mil.

FRACTURE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Prosecutor Ryan Gosling takes on accused killer Anthony Hopkins, who decides to defend himself.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’ll be fun to watch Hopkins and Gosling try to out-act each other, but the writing is anyone’s guess. It’s nice to see Primal Fear director Gregory Hoblit back in the courtroom, though.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will skew slightly older than Vacancy, but it will still be interesting to see if up-and-coming B-lister Gosling can take on established B-lister Wilson, who has yet to truly carry a film. My money’s on Wilson. $35mil.

IN THE LAND OF WOMEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The O.C. in reverse. Seriously, you’re waiting for that one guy in the trailer who kicks Adam Brody’s ass to yell “Welcome to the Michigan suburbs, bitch!”

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Adam Brody has done his fair share of smaller roles on the big screen (Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Thank You for Smoking). Now it’s time to see if he can carry a film. A smallish indie romcom not too far removed from successful territory like Garden State seems as good a place to start as any. Also gives the latest Kasdan ingenue (they’re like Wayanses) Jon to get his writer/director on.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Great counterprogramming. No true romcoms for miles. $44mil.

Limited

HOT FUZZ

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Shaun of the Dead crew take on buddy cop films.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. I do mean the same crew as Shaun of the Dead. Same writers, same director, a lot of the same cast (Simon Pegg, Bill Nighy,Nick Frost, Martin Freeman). Add to that Paddy Considine, Timothy Dalton, Jim Broadbent and uncredited cameos by Cate Blanchett, Steve Coogan and Peter Jackson.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This pretty much going to be the indie flick of April. $14mil.

THE VALET

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
French situation comedy where a guy must get another guy to pretend to be going out with this girl so that nobody knows that it’s really the first guy who’s going out with her cos’ he’s married, see?

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but you gotta love writer/director Francis Veber’s track record (The Closet, The Dinner Game). And lead Daniel Auteuil is La Merde (The Closet, Cache).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
For a guy you’ve probably never heard of, Veber’s American B.O. track record isn’t half bad. $7mil.

THE TRIPPER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy dressed as Ronald Reagan goes around killing hippies. That old chestnut.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’m sorry, but if Michael Chabon had written the screenplay it wouldn’t make any difference because you would have made up your mind whether or not you want to see this before you got to the “will it suck” part. As it happens, this comes from the mind of David Arquette who writes and directs under his Coquette production banner (get it? Cox and Arquette?) with Paul Reubens and Jason Mewes filling out the cast. Early buzz is actually pretty good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
They picked the right release date, but I don’t know if the stoner crowd can be counted on for organized support. See Baked, Half. $2mil.

4/27

Wide

THE INVISIBLE

(Delayed from January)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Teen Ghost

WILL IT SUCK?
David S. Goyer, hot off co-writing Batman Begins, has decided to direct…this, which he didn’t write. That honor actually goes to the writing team who put together the original, a Danish film itself based on a Danish book. And we know how well adaptations of foreign horror usually go. Justin “I Can’t Believe That’s Not the Kid Who Played Connor on Angel” Chatwin stars.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The tweens who don’t go to Next will go to this, then they’ll all go to Spider-Man next week. $24mil.

NEXT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Nic Cage can see the future. Well, a couple of seconds of it, anyway.

WILL IT SUCK?
Let’s face facts, Lee Tamahori has directed some crap (and this is coming from a guy who liked Die Another Day). The writers are responsible for such atrocities as The Punisher and Navy Seals, and basing your story on a Philip K. Dick novel is no guarantee (see Paycheck). On the other hand, the writers have also brought us Hollywoodland, Big Trouble in Little China and the better-than-it-usually-gets-credit-for Total Recall, so there’s an outside chance it won’t suck, but don’t count on it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I get the sense that Revolution is just running out the clock, tossing out the films it’s contractually obligated to release before it shutters for good. If you compare the ad campaign for this to the one for Ghost Rider, it’s clear they’re not pulling out all the stops. $34mil.

THE CONDEMNED

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Like Battle Royale, but with convicted killers instead of high school kids.

WILL IT SUCK?
The WWE movie machine just keeps on churning. I personally can’t wait to watch Stone Cold Steve Austin take on Vinnie Jones. And from the writers of Clockstoppers!

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Might do better than you think. $30mil.

KICKIN’ IT OLD SKOOL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Breakdancing prodigy, um, breaks and wakes up twenty years later to be socially awkward for our amusement.

WILL IT SUCK?
Here’s your first hint, it’s called Kickin’ It Old Skool. Also, the last time Jaime Kennedy made this movie it was called Malibu’s Most Wanted. I will cop to giggling a couple of times during the trailer, however. Oh, and Smallville saving grace Michael Rosenbaum has got to get a new agent (Cursed, Sorority Boys).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Well, at least this was probably less expensive than Son of the Mask. $18mil.

Limited

WIND CHILL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Thirteen Really Cold Ghosts

WILL IT SUCK?
This has a slightly better pedigree than it probably needs. Shadow of the Vampire writer Steven Katz is up in here with Criminal director (and longtime Soderbergh protege) Gregory Jacobs. And Emily “Devil Wears Prada” Blunt takes the lead. Still looks kind of boring.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Why would you release this would-be When a Stranger Calls in indie-land? It’s not exactly Wolf Creek. $5mil.

JINDABYNE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Scandal in an Australian town involving a fishing trip and a dead body.

WILL IT SUCK?
Lots of international kudos, but critics here are going 50/50. I have to admit, I found helmer Ray Lawrence’s last film, Lantana, to be well-acted but kind of dull. With Gabriel Byrne and Laura Linney on board here, I expect the first part to hold true, at least.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Needs more buzz, but Byrne and Linney make for good art house catnip. $4mil.

SNOW CAKE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Alan Rickman, after indirectly causing the death of a woman, goes to visit her autistic mom (Sigourney Weaver) and rediscovers himself because, really, it’s all about him.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, unless you’re Slant’s Ed Gonzalez. Autism is rarely handled well on film, but at least you’ve got Rickman up in here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not even on the radar. $500,000.

DIGGERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Coming of age tale about clam diggers on Long Island.

WILL IT SUCK?
No one really seems psyched about it, but early buzz is good. Written by State alum Ken Marino with Paul Rudd in the ensemble.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gonna get lost in the wash. $500,000.

Next Month: Probably the highest-grossing thirty-one days in Hollywood history.

Get ready for some overstuffed weekends.

8/7

Wide

JULIE & JULIA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Paralleling the lives of Julia Child (Meryl Streep) as she becomes a chef and modern-day Julie Powell (Amy Adams), who set out to cook all of her recipes in one year.

WILL IT SUCK?
Nora Ephron in both writing and directing mode has been inconsistent.  You’ve got decent efforts like Sleepless in Seattle and You’ve Got Mail, but you’ve also got to reckon with Michael, Mixed Nuts, This Is My Life and Bewitched.  On the other hand, you do have the aforementioned powerhouse casting as well as Stanley Tucci (reteaming with Devil Wears Prada co-star Streep), Mary Lynn Rajskub and Jane Lynch.  Plus, I really like the idea of basing a movie on two novels (Childs’ memoir My Life in France and Powell’s Julie & Julia).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Time Traveller’s Wife the following weekend might be a bit of an issue, but this is perfect counterprogramming for G.I. Joe.  And Streep is summer chick flick gold.  $125mil.

G.I. JOE: THE RISE OF COBRA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Well, it worked for Transformers.

WILL IT SUCK?
Granted, Stephen Sommers is lost outside of his Mummy wheelhouse (Van Helsing, anyone?), but the writers have at least contributed to such fare as Pirates of the Caribbean and Four Brothers (which rates higher on the IMDb than I expected).  Also, I’m pretty intrigued by the casting.  Joe Gordon-Levitt as Cobra Commander, Christopher Eccleston as Destro, Jonathan Pryce as the Prez (!?), Ray Park as Snake Eyes, Arnold Vosloo as Zartan and Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje as Heavy Duty.  I’m sure they’ll be wasted nicely.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The last action hurrah of the summer, so it’ll have all August to let the box office trickle in, but it will be more trickle than flood.  $91mil.

SHORTS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Magic wish-granting rock lands in small community.  Kid-friendly CG-driven hilarity ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
From writer/director Robert Rodriguez, whose kids fare has produced diminishing returns since Spy Kids.  Still, I’d trust him with a story more than the folks behind G-Force or Aliens in the Attic.  Good cast: William H. Macy, Jon Cryer, Kat Dennings, Leslie Mann and James Spader.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Whose bright idea was it to open a kid’s film against G.I. Joe?  $40mil.

A PERFECT GETAWAY

(Delayed from March)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Couple on vacation vs. killer hikers.

WILL IT SUCK?
As a writer/director, David Twohy (Pitch Black, Below) is usually worth paying attention to (Chronicles of Riddick notwithstanding). And it’s always fun to watch Timothy Olyphant play a bad guy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As a writer/director, Twohy’s films tend not to make much money (Chronicles of Riddick notwithstanding).  And the move from fairly competition-free March to competition-thick August is not helpful. $14mil.

Limited

COLD SOULS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Paul Giamatti plays an actor named Paul Giamatti who has his soul removed by a company (you know, for convenience) but then when he wants it back, he finds out the company has misplaced it.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has relative newbie writer/director Sophie Barthes as the inheritor to Charlie Kaufman.  With David Strathairn and Lauren Ambrose.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Almost certain to be overshadowed by Paper Heart. $4mil.

PAPER HEART

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
When you’re making a documentary about how you don’t believe in love there’s only one rule…don’t fall in love!

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mad good for this documentary/mockumentary mashup that profiles real-life couples while offering a fictionalized take on the real-life relationship between its star Charlyne Yi (stoned chick in Knocked Up) and Michael Cera.  Won the screenwriting award at Sundance.  Cameos by friends-of-the-actors Seth Rogen and Demitri Martin.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The box office is there for (relatively new) distributor Overture to lose. $15mil.

8/14

Wide

DISTRICT 9

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Alien Nation without the assimilation.

WILL IT SUCK?
All the buzz about this movie is actually about another movie that doesn’t exist.  When Peter Jackson was tapped to supervise Halo, he tapped this film’s director, Neill Blomkamp, to direct.  Given that Halo fell apart (some say over Universal and Fox being squeamish about handing the project over to an unkown – but given what happened to Tin-Tin, Jackson could have directed it with Spielberg and it still would’ve been dumped) this fim – especially with the human/alien throwdown – is being seen as a what could have been.

All that having been said, I know nothing about Blomkamp, but people seem to love his shorts, including the one this film is based on.

Screening at Comic-Con killed, apparently.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
2nd frame of G.I. Joe, 1st frame of Time Traveller’s Wife and The Goods with Inglourious Basterds following the next week?  Sony better man the fuck up with the marketing and make the most of word of mouth.  $46mil.

PONYO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hayao Miyazaki’s latest, so I don’t see how trying to describe the plot will help.

WILL IT SUCK?
If it’s anything like his previous work, it will be gorgeous and make about as much sense as a Mr. Sparkle commercial.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a lot of competition, but Miyazaki’s work is never wide-release huge in the States.  $5mil.

BANDSLAM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Endearingly dorky teens try to win a battle of the bands.

WILL IT SUCK?
Did you like Camp?  Do you remember Camp?  Same writer/director, theme.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Could make some bank off of Vanessa Hudgens being one of those endearingly dorky teens.  $44mil.

THE TIME TRAVELER’S WIFE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy travels through time.  Gets married.

WILL IT SUCK?
Definitely a strong cast: Eric Bana and Rachel McAdams as time traveler and wife, respectively, plus Ron Livingston and Stephen Tobolowsky in supporting roles.  And I can see how they chose their screenwriter; Bruce Joel Rubin’s breakthrough was Ghost.  Director did the meh Flightplan, but I think the greater challenge this film faces is that the book is not an easy adaptation.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Crowded marketplace, but not a lot of romance. $48mil.

THE GOODS: LIVE HARD, SELL HARD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Comedy about a used car liquidator (Jeremy Piven).

WILL IT SUCK?
Director did some Chappelle’s Show.  Not much known about the writers.  Cast from every comedy you’ve seen over the last year.  Funny red-band trailer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Too. Many. Movies. $17mil.

Limited

IT MIGHT GET LOUD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Edge, Jack White and Jimmy Page talk about the electric guitar.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’m sorry, I can’t hear you over how awesome the premise sounds.  And any trailer that starts with Jack White MacGyvering an electric guitar from scratch is all right by me.  From the director of An Inconvenient Truth, as if I needed more prodding.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Music docs very rarely do well.  $3mil.

SPREAD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Playboy (Ashton Kutcher) finds The One.

WILL IT SUCK?
The only really interesting aspect to this is that Ashton Kutcher is in an indie – one directed by Young Adam and Hallam Foe director David Mackenzie, no less.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Don’t know how much crossover there is between the arthouse crowd and the Kutcher crowd.  $2mil.

GRACE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Single mom raises undead baby with, um, special dietary needs.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is really good.  “Restores your faith in the horror genre” kind of good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably not everyone’s bottle of blood.  $500,000.

8/21

Wide

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Tarantino does WWII.

WILL IT SUCK?
Mixed early buzz seems to say that if you like Tarantino dialogue, you’re in luck.  Plot, not so much.

Oh, and Christoph Waltz won for Best Actor for this film at Cannes.  And, no, I have no idea who that is.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The one clear signal through all the noise this month.  $71mil.

POST GRAD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Reality Still Bites

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Vicky Jenson (the other Shrek director) and starring Alexis Bledel and, more to my tastes as a Friday Night Lights fan, Zach Gilford who, once again, looks like he’ll be playing the nice-guy-who-gets-screwed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
At least it’s not opening against fifty other films.  $35mil.

Limited

THE MARC PEASE EXPERIENCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy (Jason Schwartzman) can’t get over how he used to be hot shit, musically speaking, in high school, even though it’s eight years gone.

WILL IT SUCK?
From co-writer/director Todd Louiso, whom you might remember as John Cusack’s not-Jack Black friend in High Fidelity.  He also directed Love Liza which I remember liking but it’s been a while (I see too many movies). With Ben Stiller as Schwartzman’s ex-mentor.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little competition from World’s Greatest Dad.  $1mil.

MY ONE AND ONLY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The true story of George Hamilton’s mother (Renee Zellwegger) who left her husband (Kevin Bacon) and took young George on a road trip to find a new beau.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Which is nice considering that the writer has given us such fare as Hot to Trot and 3 Men and a Little Lady and director Richard Loncraine’s best-known work in the States is, sadly, the awful, awful Firewall.  (He also directed the masterful HBO movie The Gathering Storm as well as the Third Reich, Ian McKellan-starring take on Richard III.)

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Going into wider release later in search of Oscar gold.  $2mil.

WORLD’S GREATEST DAD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Trials and tribulations of a middle-aged teacher (Robin Williams) with a hard-to-handle son and no game.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  From writer/director Bobcat Goldthwait, whose Stay caused a stir (but not much plaudits) a couple years back.  Apparently he’s honed his craft for dark comedy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably won’t do as well as Williams’ other, big-budget take on fatherhood, but still.  $5mil.

8/28

Wide

HALLOWEEN II

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Is it a remake of Halloween II, or a sequel to the Halloween remake?  I’m sorry, did I just blow your mind?  No?  Yeah, I didn’t think so.

WILL IT SUCK?
At this point, you pretty much know what to expect from a Rob Zombie film.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not good to open against The Final Destination.  $44mil.

TAKING WOODSTOCK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woodstock Begins

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed with audiences more in love than critics.  Ang Lee directs and James Schamus adapts man-behind-the-scenes Elliot Tiber’s novel about his pivotal role in finding a place for the event.  Lee and Schamus pretty much guarantee my interest, but the cast, including Demetri Martin in the lead as Tiber, along with Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Emile Hirsch, Liev Schreiber, Imelda Staunton and Paul Dano seals the deal.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Might benefit more from a platform release.  $15mil.

THE FINAL DESTINATION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
When Coincidences Attack…In 3D! (Again!)

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writing/directing team who brought you Final Destination 2.  Yeah, it’s hard to get excited about that.  What if I told you that that director went on to do Snakes on a Plane?  Nothing?  Yeah, me neither.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Since they already used the 3D gimmick in Final Destination 3, I don’t know that that’s going to give them any extra juice here.  Oh, and not good to open against Halloween II.  $41mil.

Limited

BIG FAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Obsessed Giants fan gets beat up by his favorite player.  Dark character study ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good for the directorial debut of the guy who wrote The Wrestler (he wrote this, too).  Patton Oswalt is supposed to be amazing in the lead.  Kevin Corrigan, Michael Rappaport and Marcia Jean Kurtz co-star.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real competition.  $5mil.

THE SEPTEMBER ISSUE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc version of Devil Wears Prada

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Won the cinematography award (for docs) at Sundance.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There’s an audience for fashion docs, but not a huge one.  $3mil.

Next Month: Gervais directs.

If May is for sequels and reboots, then June is for comedy.

6/5

Wide

LAND OF THE LOST

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Will Ferrell is transported to a previously obscure part of my childhood.

WILL IT SUCK?
After the underrated Lemony Snicket’s, I’m willing to give director Brad Siberling the benefit of the doubt. Having a writer from Entourage on board doesn’t hurt, but I’m not as confident in his SNL alum co-writer.

Nice to see Pushing Daisies’ Anna Friel get some work, tho.

Oh, and in a useless piece of trivia, in Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back, Will Ferrell played a character named Marshall Willenholly, a play on the Land of the Lost’s theme song lyrics, “Marshall, Will and Holly…”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
2nd frame of Up is a little bit of an issue, and Ferrell doesn’t pack ‘em in like he used to. $101mil.

THE HANGOVER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guys wake up from a seriously effed-up bachelor party and try to figure out how they got a tiger and a baby in their room, among other things.

WILL IT SUCK?
Much as I love Todd Philips work (School for Scoundrels notwithstanding) his direction is no match for the suckage that is the writing team that gave us Rebound, Four Christmases and the recently lamented Ghosts of Girlfriends Past. Which is too bad, since I kind of like the casting: Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms, Heather Graham, Jeffrey Tambor, Ken Jeong, Justin Bartha and Rob Riggle.

That having been said, early buzz is actually pretty good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think the lesser-known cast is a bigger issue than any outside competition. $36mil.

MY LIFE IN RUINS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
How That Chick From “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” Got Her Groove Back

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Helmed by How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days director Donald Petrie which is not encouraging but written by longtime Simpsons scribe Mike Reiss which is.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No direct competition, but Wedding is not an easily repeatable success. $60mil.

Limited

AWAY WE GO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Road movie with Maya Rudolph and John Krasinski as a couple about to have a baby looking for a place to raise it.

WILL IT SUCK?
Very curious to see what “I usually make gorgeous pictures” Sam Mendes does with a decidedly lo-fi, scrappy indie look. Also curious to see if Krasinski can play something other than Jim. Also curious to see what Dave Eggers’ (co-writing with wife Vendela Vida) screenwriting chops are like (especially given that he penned the upcoming Spike Jonze Where the Wild Things Are adaptation). So you could say I was curious.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
High profile indies Food, Inc. and Moon come out next week, but this should still do okay. $8mil.

6/12

Wide

THE TAKING OF PELHAM 1 2 3

WHAT’S THE POINT, ER, PITCH?
Hollywood tries to piss me off by taking a perfectly good film and fucking it up for no good reason.

WILL IT SUCK?
If you’ve never seen the original, maybe not. Otherwise, even Brian Helgeland’s screenwriting chops (L.A. Confidential, Mystic River) can’t improve on awesomeness. Tony Scott will give everything a nice sheen, but no depth. Denzel Washington and John Travolta can make this a servicable thriller, but nothing as unforgettable as the idiosyncratic Walter Matthau and calculating Robert Shaw.

Ironically, I’m guessing they’ll drop the whole “Mr. Blue,” “Mr. Green” bit since today’s audience will credit that to Reservoir Dogs which, in fact, took it from the original Pelham.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not enough people have seen the original to be outraged. $89mil.

IMAGINE THAT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Eddie Murphy’s daughter helps him solve business problems.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Over the Hedge, which didn’t suck, and the writers behind Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure…and Bill & Ted’s Bogus Journey.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
June is comedy-rich, but family-oriented Murphy is pretty hard to beat. $66mil.

TETRO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Family drama about estranged brothers in Buenos Aires.

WILL IT SUCK?
Don’t call it an autobiography. Although certain aspects were inspired by true life, writer/director Francis Ford Coppola insists this is not his life story. Oh, did I not mention this was written and directed by Godfather-Man? Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You can only play the comeback card so many times. $1mil.

Limited

MOON

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sam Rockwell loses his shit on the lunar surface.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Rockwell is joined by Kevin Spacey getting his HAL on as the voice of the ship’s computer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Buzz is really good coming off of Tribeca, Sundance and SXSW. Should help raise awareness. $6mil.

FOOD, INC.

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In case you were thinking of ever eating anything you didn’t grow yourself ever again…

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. No surprise authors Eric Schlosser (Fast Food Nation) and Michael Pollan (The Omnivore’s Dilemma) are up in here, too.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Muckraking docs that don’t have the name “Michael Moore” in them usually have trouble. $1mil.

SEX POSITIVE

(Moved from March)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Documentary profiling Richard Berkowitz, one of the first men to advocate safe sex in the gay community during the early years of the AIDS crisis.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. The IMDb rating ain’t so hot but it won the Grand Jury Award at L.A. Outfest.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Going up against a higher-profile doc. $500,000.

6/19

Wide

YEAR ONE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
History of the World: Part Two

WILL IT SUCK?
As a writer/director, Harold Ramis has turned in some classic work (Groundhog Day, Caddyshack), but not all the time (Club Paradise), but he’s co-writing with some Office alums here, so here’s hoping. Nice cast: Jack Black, Michael Cera, Oliver Platt, David Cross, Christopher Mintz-Plasse (McLovin’), Vinnie Jones, Hank Azaria, Olivia Wilde and Xander Berkeley. Oh, and since it’s one in four comedies, Judd Apatow is producing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nicely distanced from Land of the Lost and probably only a little competition from The Proposal. $56mil.

THE PROPOSAL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ryan Reynolds has to marry his boss (Sandra Bullock) so she won’t get deported to Canada and their terrible, terrible health care system.

WILL IT SUCK?
From Step Up and 27 Dresses director Anne Fletcher. Now, I heard 27 Dresses wasn’t all that bad, but this is still probably not going to do it for me.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Betty White feeling up Sandra Bullock never fails to get a laugh whenever I’ve seen audiences react to the trailer. It’s the new rapping granny. $70mil.

WHATEVER WORKS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Curb Your Enthusiasm: The Movie

WILL IT SUCK?
The latest from Woody Allen. Seems a natural fit to match him and Larry David. Reactions have been very mixed, from the IMDb, where it’s rated as his best. flick. ever. to RottenTomatoes where critics are yawning at yet another older-misanthrope-gets-it-on-with-shockingly-young-ingenue (Evan Rachel Wood, in this case) story. Nice cast, tho: Ed Begley Jr., Patricia Clarkson, Michael McKeon.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not sure why this is going out wide, but I’m sure it’ll kick Tranformers 2’s ass next week. $12mil.

Limited

DEAD SNOW

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Nazi zombies. Angry, frozen, Nazi zombies.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good. Made a big splatter at Sundance. You gotta love any trailer that (a) quotes Temple of Doom and (b) has the tag line “Ein! Zwei! Die!”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Horror/comedy very rarely works in indieville. For every Shaun of the Dead there’s a Fido, Severance and Black Sheep. $1mil.

$9.99

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The short stories of Etgar Keret put together into an ensemble drama…oh, and rendered by stop-motion puppets.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Kudos at the Mexico City film fest and an Annie nod. Keret, who co-adapted the screenplay with the director, Tatia Rosenthal, also wrote the woefully underseen Wristcutters: A Love Story.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not high profile enough for the competition. $500,000.

6/26

Wide

TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Deceptacons go after Shia LaBeouf. Again.

WILL IT SUCK?
The Transformers are a pretty known quantity at this point, so expect more of the same. Literally. 40 robots instead of the 10 or so they scrounged together for the first one. Same talent behind the camera, adding screenwriter Ehren Kruger who hasn’t impressed since The Ring and probably won’t change that here, especially under Michael Bay’s direction.

(It really is impressive the difference a director makes. One of the biggest critical successes of the summer, Star Trek, was penned by the same writers as this – minus Kruger – and the original Transformers, but Bay is no J.J. Abrams.)

But there is no question you’ll get plenty of giant robot smashy-smashy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably going to be the biggest movie of the summer. $304mil.

MY SISTER’S KEEPER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Little girl (Abigail Breslin) is understandably put out to discover that she was bred as a an organ farm for her ailing older sister.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Nick Cassavetes’ reteams with the writer of his The Notebook which, in spite of the critical drubbing it took upon release, is very well regarded on the IMDb. Still not enough to get me interested, although I am curious to see what Jason Patric does with his role as the dad.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Plot-wise, this doesn’t seem equipped to catch fire the same way The Notebook did. $17mil.

Limited

CHÉRI

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It’s Stephen Frears. I don’t really care. I’m in.

WILL IT SUCK?
Well, if you must know it’s based on some Collette novels about a layabout (Rupert Friend) whose mother (Kathy Bates) interferes with his relationship with a retired courtesan (Michelle Pfieffer). And after all that talk about Frears (who reunites with another Dangerous Liaisons alum here, screenwriter Christopher Hampton), the early buzz has this as one of his weaker efforts.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without strong buzz, lacks breakout potential. $8mil.

THE STONING OF SORAYA M.

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman tells journalist a horrifying story about what happened to a woman in a small Iranian village.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mostly good. Starring Shohreh Aghdashloo and a defy-you-to-recognize-him-in-the-trailer Jim Caviezel.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With the right coverage, I could see this getting some attention. $5mil.

THE HURT LOCKER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bomb defusers in Iraq.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hell no. Read.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Summit has a pretty clever release strategy here. It’ll have about a month of limited release before going wide. If the buzz pans out, that could work. Unfortunately, I think the trend against Iraq films hitting at the box office isn’t making an exception for one that’s actually good. $11mil.

LIFE IS HOT IN CRACKTOWN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Different people’s lives intersect in, well, Cracktown.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Probably not as cheesy as the trailer would suggest. Interesting cast, including a 180-from-Superman Brandon Routh as a resident crackhead.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Overcrowded weekend. $500,000.

SURVEILLANCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Witnesses and investigators converge on a killing spree in Nowheresville, USA.

WILL IT SUCK?
More like meh. See my review (scroll down).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, overcrowded weekend. $1mil.

Next Month: Sacha Baron Cohen graduates to tentpole.

Madea tops the box office. At this point, she’s more reliable than Adam Sandler.

9/18

Wide

CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy invents machine that makes food fall from the sky. CG animated version of the children’s classic.

WILL IT SUCK?
What little footage has trickled out is getting good buzz. From the minds behind Clone High (heard it was good) and a few How I Met Your Mother’s (know that’s good) and Extreme Movie which, to be fair, had about 352 writers.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Is it just me or is it brilliant to release this in September with virtually no other kid’s competition? $125mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think the Best Animated category is still pretty wide open.

JENNIFER’S BODY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Demon-possessed cheerleader (Megan Fox) starts devouring boys while mentoring the (in my opinion, way hotter) class ugmo (Amanda Seyfried).

WILL IT SUCK?
Even more interesting to me than Juno scribe Diablo Cody writing the screenplay is Karyn Kusama (Girlfight, and let’s forget about Aeon Flux) directing, because how many times do you have a horror film written and directed by women?

Early buzz is just not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Teen audience compromised by Fame the following week, but this has Megan Fox. $40mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even a Diablo Cody horror script will run up against the Academy anti-horror bias.

LOVE HAPPENS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Self-help guru (Aaron Eckhart) falls for self-help attendee (Jennifer Aniston).

WILL IT SUCK?
I got concerned when I saw that the writers penned Dragonfly. And when will Judy Greer graduate from best friend status?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I won’t say Aniston is unstoppable, but it’s not a good idea to bet against her. $89mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Well, maybe you can bet against her here.

THE INFORMANT!

WHAT’S THE PITCH!
The Insider but, you know, funny.

WILL IT SUCK!
Based on the Kurt Eichenwald novel about the true crime Archer Midland Daniels price fixing scandal. His Enron book is next up for adaptation. Steven Soderbergh directs, and I’ll pretty much watch anything he makes, even if it sucks. This is looking more like Ocean’s 11, though, than The Good German. The screenwriter co-wrote The Bourne Ultimatum, and the cast – Matt Damon, Tony Hale, Patton Oswalt, Clancy Brown, Eddie Jemison and Paul F. Tompkins – is promising.

By the way, does anyone else think the poster is a 40 Year Old Virgin rip?

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO!
Corporate greed movies tend to have a glass ceiling, even with Matt Damon. $50mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME!
The Insider but, you know, without any nominations.

Limited

BRIGHT STAR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Story of the true-life romance between John Keats and Fanny Brawne, the inspiration for his eponymous poem.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is the best writer/director Jane Campion has had since The Piano. Better, if you believe IMDb, where this is her top-rated film.

And kudos on one of the most original film Web sites I’ve seen in years.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Another strong woman on the indie horizon in Coco Before Chanel, and that one’s played by Audrey Tatou. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Campion’s been to the show and has the Best Original Screenplay Oscar to prove it. Abbie Cornish, who plays Brawne, could be in for some Academy love, especially if the film does better than I predict.

THE BURNING PLAIN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Interracial, forbidden love ensemble piece.

WILL IT SUCK?
Written and direced by Guillermo Arriaga, who wrote all those kick-ass Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu flicks (not to mention The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada). Early buzz is split. Some like it better than the work he did for Inarritu. Some really don’t.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Best bet would be to play up the Inarritu angle, even though the two famously split post-Babel. $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With better reviews, the presence of two Oscar winners (Charlize Theron and Kim Basinger) in lead roles might make more of a difference. As it is, seems more of a long shot.

PARIS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ensemble piece in which a dying man observes the lives of those living around him in, uh, some city in France.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Nominated for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Editing at the Cesar Awards (French Oscars).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You know what French movie is going to make some scratch this month? Coco Before Chanel. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not to beat a dead horse, but Coco has just as much chance to be France’s foreign language submission.

Next Week: If you had an android avatar, would you give it this hair?

I got a good response the last time I decided to self-check my prognostication skillz, so I’ve decided to do it again. This time we look at a year ago this week, when Tyler Perry was releasing a film starring an Academy-nominated actress and…well, I’m sure some things were different about last year.

The main lesson we’ll learn is that teaming two popular actors (Pitt/Clooney, De Niro/Pacino) or a whole mess of actresses (Ryan/Bening/Messing/Pinkett Smith/Mendes) can’t overcome an overcrowded weekend.

The Women

My Prediction: $35 million

Actual Gross: $27 million

As I predicted, Women failed to cash in on the popularity of Sex and the City earlier that year, a vibe it tried to emulate in the marketing. Turns out I was a little optimistic.

Burn After Reading

My Prediction: $75 million

Actual Gross: $60 million

I overestimated the appeal of Pitt and Clooney by 25% of the actual gross, but it was still the Coen Bros.’ biggest open ever, and second-highest grosser after No Country for Old Men.

Tyler Perry’s the Family That Preys

My Prediction: $56 million

Actual Gross: $37 million

See what happens when there’s no Madea?

Righteous Kill

My Prediction: $57 million

Actual Gross: $40 million

I finally saw this on cable and you know what? It’s not that good. It’s not that bad, either. It’s just kind of there. But what really hurt here was a ridiculously overcrowded weekend.