Sometimes I’m wrong a lot.  February is an especially tricky month to predict.  Some films are released just to get them off the docket. Others are released precisely because February is such a dump and competition is low.  This weekend had a little of both.

Vantage Point

My Prediction: $44 million

Actual Gross: $72 million

Never bet against a friend.  Or, in this case, a friend of a friend who wrote the screenplay.  I just didn’t expect the ensemble cast and Rashomon approach to the action/thriller genre to resonate as well as it did.

Charlie Bartlett

My Prediction: $16 million

Actual Gross: $4 million

I didn’t expect this to do well given (a) multiple release delays, which always plays hell with marketing and (b) that it was indie fare released wide, but damn.  Does Robert Downey Jr. count for nothing?

Be Kind Rewind

My Prediction: $32 million

Actual Gross: $11 million

Again, I wasn’t expecting the film to make it rain, but dude, it had Jack Black!

Witless Protection

My Prediction: $9 million

Actual Gross: $4 million

Glad to be wrong, even when I lowballed it.  Each Larry  the Cable Guy movie made half what its predecessor made.  This was the final nail in the coffin.

The Signal

My Prediction: $2 million

Actual Gross: $250,000

Man this deserved to do better.  But indie horror is tough.  Even with great festival buzz.

The Counterfeiters

My Prediction: $2 million

Actual Gross: $5 million

I knew it had been nominated for Best Foreign Film.  I didn’t know it would win.  (This is a great movie, btw.)

The Duchess of Langeais

My Prediction: $750,000

Actual Gross: $280,000

From a noted French director that no one’s ever heard of in the States.  To be honest, it didn’t do that much better overseas.

Michael Jackson’s This Is It outgrossing what I thought were generous expectations with a $32 million opening weekend (five-day, granted) that will likely exceed my $66 million prediction now that Sony will keep it in theaters beyond the original 2-week-only planned release.  Also pretty likely that, in a week or two, Paranormal Activity will be the cheapest movie ever to pass the $100 million mark.

11/6

Wide

DISNEY’S A CHRISTMAS CAROL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The old tale done Beowulf-style by Robert Zemeckis.

WILL IT SUCK?
I have a good deal of faith in Zemeckis and, unlike a lot of folk, I enjoyed Beowulf.  Looking forward to Jim Carrey playing Scrooge and all of the ghosts (minus Marley), but even more intrigued by Gary Oldman playing Bob Cratchit, Marley, and Tiny Tim.

My favorite bit of news about this production revolves around the fact that there’s going to be a game attached.  I can’t wait for the next Dickens game, Pickwick Papers for the Wii.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
2012 is kind of an issue the following week, but this is at least a little more kid-friendly than Beowulf.  $113mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Mocap technology-powered films are eligible for Best Animated, so this is a contender.

THE FOURTH KIND

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
You know how in Close Encounters there are three kinds?  This is about the fourth. Based on a true story.

WILL IT SUCK?
Never heard of him before, but the director has the coolest name: Olatunde Osunsanmi.  That’s all I got.

Early buzz ain’t so hot.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You’ve got The Box this week, and 2012 sucking up all the oxygen the next.  $21mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.

THE BOX

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cash-strapped couple (Cameron Diaz, James Marsden) receives a box containing a button.  If they press the button, they get a million bucks…and someone they don’t know dies.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’ve seen the Twilight Zone ep based on the same short story (Richard Matheson’s “Button, Button”) and it’s awesome, but not enough content for a feature.  Writer/director Richard Kelly (Donnie Darko, Southland Tales) sez he’s fleshed it out, and I’m curious to see what he means, since the original felt pretty complete to me.

I’m also suspicious because Kelly has, by most accounts, failed to deliver on the promise of Darko (haven’t seen Southland Tales myself, but the reception wasn’t good).  So while I want this to be good, I really don’t hold out much hope.

I’ll take it all back if there’s a scene with Brad Pitt whining “What’s in the box!?!”

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Those of us who loved Darko, not a box office smash, did not turn his follow up into a smash, either.  $29mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they didn’t remember Darko (which was a crime)…

THE MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of a reporter (Ewan McGregor) who encounters a member (George Clooney) of something called the First Earth Battalion being trained by the military to kill things (like goats) with their minds.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Kevin Spacey, Jeff Bridges, Robert Patrick, and Stephen Root nicely round out the cast.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ballsy to open this wide.  And ill-advised.  $27mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’ve heard O Brother Where Art Thou? things about Clooney in this.  I can also see an Adapted Screenplay nod in there somewhere.

Limited

PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL “PUSH” BY SAPPHIRE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Girl ‘N’ the Hood

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is siiiick.  Took home the Grand Jury and Audience Award at Sundance and followed that up with the coveted Audience Award at Toronto.  Mo’Nique also took home some love from Sundance in a Special Jury Prize for her role as the main character’s abusive mother.  Director Lee Daniels can bring the harshness (see Shadowboxer, or his producing credits – Monster’s Ball and The Woodsman), so expect things to be kept “real.”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
What’s sort of amazing about this film is the strange bedfellows it’s managed to create.  Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry are not known for their associations with gritty indie depictions of the worst-of-the-worst abuses the ghetto can dole out, but they’ve joined forces to promote the hell out of this flick, which would otherwise fade into obscurity (like most gritty depictions of urban life).  As a result, expect an unusually bright future.  $34mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There’s already talk of Mo’Nique being the one to beat for Best Supporting Actress, and she’ll probably bring the lead, newcomer Gabourey “Gabby” Sidibe along for the ride.  Daniels could be looking at a directorial nod, but that’s less of a lock, as some critics are finding his direction to be the one thing to complain about.

Next Week: Ever get the feeling that Roland Emmerich just doesn’t like the planet?