Avatar still number one at the box office, defeating Sherlock Holmes by $10 million but, for my money, Holmes is the more fun time to be had.

1/1

Wide

CASE 39

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Child services case worker (Renee Zellwegger) takes in a troubled little girl whose parents tried to kill her.  Grudge-y shit ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Leigh Paatsch of the Victoria Herald Sun describes the film as “awfulsome,” if that gives you any clue.  This is a widely held opinion.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There’s a reason this three-year-old film is being dumped on January 1st.  $8mil.

Limited

THE LOSS OF A TEARDROP DIAMOND

(12/30)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Based on a lost Tennessee Williams screenplay about…wait for it…a strong-willed Southern belle.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good.  Trailer looks kind of Lifetime/Hallmark-y.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gonna get lost. $1mil.

THE WHITE RIBBON

(12/30)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Strange goings on in a small German village just prior to WWI.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is fantastic.  Highest rated film on IMDb by writer/director Michael Haneke, who already has plenty of highly rated films to his credit.  Won three awards at Cannes, including the Palme d’Or.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Might have done better to release closer to the announcement of Best Foreign Picture nominees.  $3mil.

Next Week: I, for one, welcome our new vampire overlords.

Does it sting that Avatar made only half of what New Moon did in its opening weekend and got topped by I Am Legend for biggest December open?  Probably not.  It made $232 million worldwide which should grow to a healthy half billion at least before we’re done, and besides, it did snow just a touch.

12/25

Wide

IT’S COMPLICATED

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Divorcee (Meryl Streep) meets someone new (Steve Martin) but starts sleeping with her ex-husband (Alec Baldwin) again.

WILL IT SUCK?
I usually give writer/director Nancy Meyers (What Women Want, Something’s Gotta Give) the benefit of the doubt.  And the cast doesn’t exactly suck.  John Krasinski is up in here, too.

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
While there’s no direct competition, it’s going to be hard to get noticed.  $64mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe.  Depending upon the critical reception, any of the stars could be looking at a nod.

SHERLOCK HOLMES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kicky-punchy-bawdy take on the classic detective.

WILL IT SUCK?
Guy Ritchie directs, and while Rocknrolla was good, I’m still wary after Revolver (not to mention Swept Away).  On the other hand, he only directs, so it’ll look great.  Writers are a mixed bag and, on their best day, have stuff like Mr. and Mrs. Smith to their credit which, while not exactly brilliant, was at least entertaining, which is kind of what I expect here.  Plus, it’s Robert Downey Jr., so I’d be hard pressed not to watch.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has been marketed almost as well as Avatar.  Mabye better.  $111mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Downey’s Golden Globe nod is unlikely to show up later.

ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE SQUEAKUEL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Chipmunks go back to school and meet their female counterparts, the Chipettes.

WILL IT SUCK?
They brought on a couple of writers from Monsters vs. Aliens and Kung Fu Panda, so it might be a little better.  And while I’m happy to see Zachary Levi (Chuck) get some work, sigh.

Early buzz is awful, but is creating some hilarious quotes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
However much money you think the first one made, it made more.  $162mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There will probably be five nominees this year, not twenty.

Limited

POLICE, ADJECTIVE

(12/23)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Police officer is reluctant to bust a kid he’s been tailing for offering weed to a couple of other kids.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  From 12:08 East of Bucharest writer/director Corneliu Porumboiu.  Like that film, this is supposed to be fairly Jarmusch-y.  Took home the FIPRESCI and Jury Un Certain Regard prizes at Cannes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has a little more buzz going for it than 12:08 did.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Romania’s official submission for Best Foreign.  I can see it making the final five.

THE IMAGINARIUM OF DR. PARNASSUS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy makes deal with the Devil, then tries to keep his daughter from paying the price.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  The last work of Heath Ledger, supplemented by Colin Farrell, Johnny Depp, and Jude Law who each took over his role after he died.  Visually, writer/director Terry Gilliam appears to be in full-on Dali mode here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
One of the most anticipated indie titles of the year.  $18mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Hard to say.  Academy probably feels it’s already given Heath his due, so unless he shows them something completely different here… On the other hand, Christopher Plummer has the lead as Parnassus, and could be up for a career Oscar.

Next Week: Nobody releases movies New Year’s week.  Well, unless they win the Palme D’Or or something.

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With many more critics circles chiming in, here’s how things are shaping up:

Early Locks

Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow will be the first woman to win this award.

Best Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz will be the first…let’s say Austrian…to win this award.  (OK, I was totally guessing when I wrote that, but it turns out that, yes, the man is from Vienna.)

Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique has this pretty much sewn up, but any other year this is Anna Kendrick’s statue.

Original Screenplay – Chalk up another one for Tarantino.

Adapted Screenplay – Up in the Air’s best shot at an Oscar.

Best Doc – Still pissed that Anvil didn’t make the cut, but even if it had, The Cove would still be the film to beat.

Best Animated – Up, but Fantastic Mr. Fox will make Pixar work for it.

Tight Races

Best Picture – Hurt Locker vs. Up in the Air, with a slight edge for Locker.

Best Actor – A hot three-way with George Clooney, Colin Firth, and Jeff Bridges

Best Actress – And starring Carey Mulligan as The Actress Who Gets to Go Up Against Meryl Streep This Year

Best Foreign – Well, if anybody had bothered to submit Sin Nombre and Summer Hours, it’d be all about them.  As that never happened, I have no idea.

Best Cinematography – The grit of Hurt Locker vs. the black and white beauty of The White Ribbon.

In which I rant about how Google, TiVo, and James Cameron are conspiring to make Minority Report a reality:

When all is said and done, The Blind Side might make more money than The Princess and the Frog.  Didn’t see that coming.

12/18

Wide

DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS?

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Estranged couple (Hugh Grant, Sarah Jessica Parker) witness a murder and are forced to relocate to Wyoming, cos’ they’re from New York and the FBI thought it would be funnier that way.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer/director of Two Weeks Notice and Music and Lyrics.  I’ve actually heard some good things about Music and Lyrics.  But he also wrote The Out of Towners remake, Forces of Nature and Miss Congeniality.  Now, I’ve heard good things about Miss Congeniality, but he also wrote Miss Congeniality 2.  It’s not looking good is what I’m saying.

Nice to see Elisabeth Moss get some exposure, tho.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On the one hand, this is smart counterprogramming to Avatar.  On the other hand, fucking Avatar.  $51mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I’m convinced Grant has an Oscar-worthy performance in him somewhere.

AVATAR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dances With Aliens

WILL IT SUCK?
There are two James Camerons.  There’s the one that made Terminator and Aliens.  Vicious little bites of groundbreaking sci-fi that make your heart race.  Then there’s the one that made The Abyss and Titanic.  Big, expensive, and weepy.  You can generally track these by whether or not the military are good guys or bad guys.  I’m thinking this is going to be more like The Abyss than anything else he’s done.  You’ll be impressed visually, and some scenes will make your heart race, but you’ll be left with a distinctly cheesy taste in your mouth.

Early buzz is extremely good but, tellingly, praises look over story.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will it be a high grosser?  Absolutely.  I’ll be shocked if it makes anything less than $200 million, and expect it to vie for one of the top spots on the year-end top ten.  Will it make a profit?  A Fox chairman is saying that $500 million is a ridiculous budget estimate, but even if that ain’t the production budget, after prints and advertising you bet your ass it’s a half-bil spent so far.  Will it make a dime over $500 million?  Worldwide, probably, especially after home video.  Will it make as much pure profit as, say, Paranormal Activity?  After you factor in back-end deals and the like, it’ll be close.  $300mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
We’ll know more once it finally screens for critics, but right now it’s on the medium list for Picture, Director.  Certainly a tech nod favorite.

Limited

A TOWN CALLED PANIC

(12/16)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Wes Anderson’s not the only one who can do hip indie stop-motion animation.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Won the Audience Award at Fantastic Fest 2009 and was the first stop-motion feature selected to Cannes.  Looks funny.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Indie animated fare usually has a rough go of it.  $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
An Animated nod isn’t out of the question.

NINE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Film adaptation of the Tony Award-winning musical adaptation of Fellini’s 81⁄2, in which an Italian film director (Daniel Day Lewis) goes through a midlife crisis in an apocalyptic hellscape populated by nine robots who, wait, that last part might be off.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Rob Marshall knows how to do a dark musical with a mostly female cast.  He also has the visual flair to at least emulate Fellini’s dreamlike aesthetic (which is the interesting challenge of a film adaptation here – how do you avoid simply remaking 81⁄2 with musical numbers?).  From screenwriters Michael Tolkin (The Player, Deep Cover, Changing Lanes) and the late Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain, The English Patient, The Talented Mr. Ripley), so I’d say the odds are good.

Oh, did I mention the rest of the cast?  Joining Day Lewis, we have Marion Cotillard, Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Sophia Loren, Fergie, Kate Hudson (one of those names was not like the others) and a bunch of people who, like Loren, are actually Italian.

Early buzz is not so good, unless you count the slew of nods from the Critics’ Choice Awards, which seems to contradict the (as of this writing) 36% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
While the waters could get choppy leading up to and during a wide Christmas release, a cast like that makes good box office seem plausible.  $75mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Likely.  Marshall will shoot for another nod.  With ten slots, Best Picture seems reasonable.  It’s hard for Day Lews to not get nominated.  The only problem is how to parse the wealth of female talent among a limited number of Actress and Supporting Actress slots, but expect at least a couple to get in.

THE YOUNG VICTORIA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
That would be Queen Victoria (Emily Blunt).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  From the guy who wrote Gosford Park.  Paul Bettany, Miranda Richardson, Jim Broadbent, Thomas Kretschmann, Mark Strong, and Julian Glover co-star.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Going to be overshadowed by higher-profile indies.  $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Blunt is supposed to be outstanding, but I haven’t heard any Oscar buzz surrounding her yet.  Consider her a dark horse.

CRAZY HEART

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Country Singer

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Jeff Bridges stars with Maggie Gyllenhaal, Robert Duvall, and Colin Farrell in supporting roles.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little late getting its buzz on, but Fox Searchlight is good at  this.  $13mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Will be for this year’s Oscar race what The Wrestler was for last year’s, with Jeff Bridges as Mickey Rourke.

Next Week: I bet Young Sherlock Holmes sounded like a bad idea, too.

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My son explains the finer points of delivering large volumes of Shakespeare to the neighborhood.

Two box office surprises this weekend.  After three weeks of release, Blind Side makes it to number 1, and Brothers beats Armored.  Are people actually into drama?

And, yes, Princess and the Frog goes wide this weekend, but I done wrote about that when it went limited.

12/11

Wide

INVICTUS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of how Nelson Mandela (Morgan Freeman) tried to unite his country after becoming president by convincing a rugby player (Matt Damon) to lead his team to try to win the World Cup for South Africa.

WILL IT SUCK?
Clint Eastwood directs (and won an NBR award for his trouble), so you’re in good hands.  From the writer of Don’t Say a Word, so I’m a little nervous (especially because he also wrote Sherlock Holmes).  Can’t complain about the cast, tho (Freeman co-won Best Actor from NBR – w/ George Clooney).  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With Princess and the Frog opening wide this week after its earlier limited run, don’t know that there’s room for a movie that on any other day would be a limited release.  On  the other hand, it’s hard to bet against Eastwood when he’s got stars.  $75mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Would have to actively suck to not make the shortlist for Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor (depending on how Freeman and Damon divvy it up) and Adapted Screenplay.

Limited

THE LOVELY BONES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A murdered young girl watches life unfold without her.

WILL IT SUCK?
My faith in Peter Jackson is pretty unwavering.  Co-writing again with Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens, adapting the best-selling novel by Alice Sebold.  I’ll be honest, the move from Ryan Gosling to Mark Wahlberg was a bit of a letdown, although it’s not like after The Departed I don’t think the man can act.  Rest of the cast is strong, Rachel Weisz, Stanley Tucci, Susan Sarandon, Saoirse Ronan, and Michael Imperioli.  And original music by Brian Eno (!?)

Early buzz is mixed with passionate proponents and detractors.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gonna go wide the following week a few days before Avatar comes out.  Yeah, we won’t be hearing from this movie again.  $51mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even with mixed reviews it’s got a shot.  Look at all the majors to be in play: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, maybe even FX.

A SINGLE MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A day in the 1960’s Los Angeles life of an English professor (Colin Firth) who’s just lost his male lover.

WILL IT SUCK?
The writing/directing debut of designer Tom Ford, who took home the Queer Lion (awarded to best GLBT-themed film) at Venice. Colin Firth also took home an award from that fest, Best Actor, which he also won at Santa Barbara.

Good casting doesn’t end there. We’ve got Julianne Moore, Ginnifer Goodwin, Nicholas Hoult (all grown up from About a Boy), Matthew Goode, Lee Pace, and the uncredited voice of Jon Hamm.

Early buzz is outstanding.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is where the art house competition gets thick. $7mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Biggest buzz is for Firth, but look for Moore to make a run for Best Supporting Actress. Maybe some love Ford’s way if the stars align.

Next Week: I don’t know if you’ve heard about it because they’ve been pretty coy, but apparently, and don’t quote me on this, James Cameron made another movie.

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National Board of Review and Gotham have announced their winners, and Indie Spirit their nods.  David Poland does a pretty good job summing up how useless these early returns are on his blog, but I thought I’d throw in my two cents anyway, especially since this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable Awards seasons in some time, and trend-latching becomes especially desperate in that kind of an atmosphere.  For me, though, the fun is in seeing which of these wins resonate with me as harbingers, and which ring hollow for no other reason than they just do (since there’s really nothing to compare them to yet).

I’m going to focus primarily on the National Board of Review, whose specious reasoning is underlined by the fact that Avatar hadn’t even screened for critics when they announced (kind of like having a primary before all the candidates have thrown their hat in).  They gave Up in the Air top honors which, for me, only solidifies its place in The Ten for Best Picture.

Speaking of which, in the context of Awards season, I begin to think that the whole point of going to ten is to create a de facto Academy Certified Top Ten of X Year the way the AFI and a handful of other organizations (like the National Board of Review) do.  Of course, why the Academy would want to emulate any of those organizations is beyond me, so maybe it’s just a coincidence.

Eastwood gets Best Director for Invictus, but whether or not Eastwood fatigue will set in for Academy nominators remains to be seen.  His film shares a Best Actor win (Morgan Freeman) with George Clooney, which means they’re both among the twenty or so names that could be in the final five at this point.

Carey Mulligan’s win for An Education helps convince me that she will probably be one of the final five for Best Actress.

Nice to see Anna Kendrick and Woody Harrelson get supporting wins, but that means nothing for their Oscar nod chances.

Haven’t even heard of the Best Foreign Picture winner but, for a guy that spends most of his year paying attention to theatrical releases, that happens a lot.  Same with docs, though I’ve heard of (and am itching to see) Best Doc winner The Cove.

I’m going to detour a bit with the Animated win for Up to mention that the Annie nods are also out, and Coraline, Up, and Princess and the Frog are in a tight race to dominate, with 10, 9, and 8 nods, respectively, which suggests that this isn’t just Up’s world and there really will be a race in the Best Animated Feature category this year.

The screenplay wins (Up In the Air for Original and A Serious Man for Adapted) actually do seem very predictive for nods.

Hurt Locker’s Gotham win still doesn’t solidify in my mind its chances to make it into the final ten, although, for some reason, I feel like Kathryn Bigelow, who won for Best Director, somehow has a better chance at a directorial nod now.

As far as the Indie Spirit nods go, all I can say is it’s nice to see Adventureland get some screenplay love, as that’s probably all the love it will get this awards season.  Also, it’d be interesting to see Amreeka’s nods start the ball rolling on an acting nod a la The Visitor or Frozen River last year.  I also feel like Samantha Morton has the best chance of coming out of The Messenger with a nod, if only because she’s been to the party twice before.

That’s all the completely baseless speculation that’s fit to post for now.

Finally posted Attack of the Bobbleheads, a short I shot back in ‘03 about, well, the title is pretty self-explanatory…

Enjoy!