How Hurt Locker fares in a bunch of these categories might tell us a lot about how it will fare in the final category.  Or not.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar

Seriously?  Is there some suspicion that District 9 is gonna walk away with this one?  The one thing that everyone can agree on with this flick is the visual effects.  The boundary that has been pushed, the moment in film history that has been marked is all about visual effects.  Honestly, it’s kind of mean to even nominate the other two.

I’ll drink the koolaid on this one.  It really is an amazing film  to look at, and the digital reality that Cameron has created, both on the faces of the actors and their surroundings is convincing (although Gollum is still the most impressive CG character creation/performance to date, imho).

ANIMATED FEATURE

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Up

We can pretend that Fantastic Mr. Fox is a spoiler, but critter, please.

One of the best films of the decade.  There, I said it.  Actually, there I said it.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Not an easy pick.  You’ve got BAFTA, one of the few other major awards ceremonies giving out a cinematography award, giving theirs to Hurt Locker (along with a bunch of critics circles).  You’ve got ASC (cinematographer’s union) going with The White Ribbon.  And then you’ve got these random people thinking Avatar‘s a slam dunk, and to their credit, this does more or less follow the “if it’s a technical award, it will go to Avatar” rule.

First off, I don’t think most of the Academy has seen The White Ribbon.  Secondly, I get the sense that when people think of Avatar, they don’t think of cinematography, at least not in the traditional sense.  I think they think of a bunch of guys sitting at computers.  Not a guy with a camera.  When they think of Hurt Locker, there’s a guy with a camera.  Getting amazing shots.

That one image at the beginning of the film with the grains of sand.  You know the one?  If not, I’m not going to spoil it.  But right there it won Best Cinematography in my heart.

FILM EDITING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Again, a tough call.  As often as not, the Best Picture favorite nabs this one.  That’s easily Avatar here, though some might say Hurt Locker (more on that later).  Hurt Locker, on the other hand, did nab the ACE Eddie award and the BAFTA for Best Editing.  Ultimately, though, I feel like Hurt Locker is only going to be able to pull so many wins away from Avatar, and this won’t be one of them.

The tonal shifts in Precious are not easy, but the editing makes them seem that way.  The fantasy sequences in particular are well-merged.  Just as important, knowing when not to cut, as in Mo’Nique’s climactic monologue.

SCREENPLAY – ADAPTED

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Up in the Air

Will Win: Up in the Air
Should Win: Up in the Air

All of the stars have lined up for this one.  Globes, BFCA, BAFTA, WGA, and virtually every critics circle pointed at Up in the Air and said “yes.”  Will probably be the only award it wins, but still.

My favorite movie of last year, and the screenplay is no small part of that.  Oh, by the way, go see In the Loop.  The only reason I didn’t pick it for “should” is that a lot of the (amazing) dialogue is improvised.

SCREENPLAY – ORIGINAL

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

Will Win: Inglourious Basterds
Should Win: Up

Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds are practically neck and neck on this one.  Locker got the love from WGA and BAFTA while Basterds got BFCA and a ton of critics circles (basically everyone who didn’t vote for (500) Days of Summer, which inexplicably didn’t make the Oscar cut).  Here is one of the places I think the unfortunate e-mail will come back to bite Hurt Locker in the ass, with the Academy giving the more familiar Tarantino his second win.

Hurt Locker specializes in character and action and Inglourious Basterds specializes in dialogue and theme, but Up doesn’t specialize.  It masters every narrative skill set and makes it look effortless.  That amazing dialogue-free opening sequence?  Somebody wrote that.  The hilarious dialogue?  Same.  The highly original action sequences?  All on the page.

In our final installment: Real war vs. fake war.

While I will now predict an Oscar for Star Trek, it’s not the kind they’ll put on the box…

MAKEUP

Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

Will Win: Star Trek
Should Win: Star Trek

Although it doesn’t always go this way, the more obvious work is the surer winner.  Here, Eric Bana is transformed and that green chick is, like, totally green.

Seriously, I didn’t recognize him.  Or Winona Ryder.  I have nothing to add except to say that you should totally go see Il Divo.

COSTUME DESIGN

Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

Will Win: The Young Victoria
Should Win: The Young Victoria

First off, how bad would it be if Coco Before Chanel *didn’t* get nominated for Best Costume Design?  Anyhoo, period pieces, especially the frilly ones, tend to have the edge here.

Having no costume preferences whatsoever this year, I’m just going to go with the flow.

ART DIRECTION

Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar

Kind of a technical award, right?  Avatar.

Avatar won this award for me before they even left the base.  Amazing.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Sherlock Holmes

BFCA, BAFTA, and the Globes, at least, agree on Up.

Granted, the Avatar score was strong (I even liked the way it called back the Aliens soundtrack from time to time), but I really liked how Hans Zimmer incorporated Irish folk elements into an otherwise straightforward action score on Holmes.

ORIGINAL SONG

The Princess and the Frog: “Almost There”
The Princess and the Frog: “Down in New Orleans”
Paris 36: “Loin de Paname”
Nine: “Take It All”
Crazy Heart: “The Weary Kind”

Will Win: “The Weary Kind”
Should Win: “The Weary Kind”

Golden Globes and BFCA agree, and I’m expecting a little of the Jeff Bridges love to rub off here as well.

I haven’t actually heard any of the other songs, but I like this one!  Whole soundtrack’s actually pretty good.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Ajami – Israel
The Milk of Sorrow – Peru
A Prophet – France
The Secret in Their Eyes – Argentina
The White Ribbon – Germany

Will Win: The White Ribbon
Should Win: Um…

If Sin Nombre or Summer Hours were in the running, it might be a tighter race, but the acclaim lavished on The White Ribbon so far is considerable, although you might want to consider A Prophet a spoiler.

Enough about me, what do you think should win for Foreign Language Film?  (Yeah, I haven’t seen any of these.)

In our next installment: If only there were a clear front-runner for Best Visual Effects.  I just don’t know.

As usual, I have no freakin’ clue about a lot of these traditionally difficult categories, but I’ve enlisted the help of the crowd (or, at least, this crowd) to get a few, admittedly arbitrary, clues.

SHORT FILM  (ANIMATED)

French Roast
Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death

Will Win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Should Win: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Three of the four times Nick Park has been nominated for this award, he’s won.

And with good reason.  Even though this probably ranks about third in my enjoyment of Wallace and Gromit shorts, it’s still very funny.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

Will Win: Kavi
Should Win: The New Tenants

Here’s where I have to rely on the crowd.  Given their affinity for this, I have to guess that the Slumdog Millionaire vibe is expected to play a role in the voting.

Again, relying on a third party, but this guy at least thought The New Tenants was the best of the bunch and, hey, it’s got Vincent D’Onofrio and Kevin Corrigan, so why not?

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

China’s Unnatural Disaster:The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governer Booth Gardener
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin

Will Win: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Should Win: Rabbit a la Berlin

It’s apparently a close race between China and GM, but my guess is the American-ness and timeliness of the topic will win out.

I have no idea about should, but a doc about rabbits living in between East and West Berlin while the Wall was still up sounds pretty fascinating.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellserg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

Will Win: The Cove
Should Win: Food, Inc.

If Anvil! The Story of Anvil had made the short list, this might be more of a fight, but minus that, no other doc has received the acclaim lavished upon The Cove.  Besides, how can you say no to dolphins?

Both The Cove and Food, Inc. are must-sees, but the issues brought to light in Food, Inc. are more systemic and alarming to me, personally, than the (truly horrifying) plight of dolphins (and people, for that matter) in The Cove.  In fact, you could make an argument that the slaughter depicted in The Cove is a symptom of the larger philosophy examined in Food, Inc., which puts humans and animals alike at great risk.

SOUND EDITING

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker

Here’s the clearest answer I’ve ever heard about the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  Enjoy.

If it’s a technical award, it’s going to go to Avatar.  Just get used to that.

The Hurt Locker recorded a lot of ambient sound and it’s used to gut-crunching effect in the film.  When you make a film about bombs, sound matters.

SOUND MIXING

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker

If it’s a technical award…

Seriously, I feel like I could hear the sweat in that film.

In our next installment: Admit it.  You hadn’t even heard of The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus until now.