Finally saw How to Train Your Dragon, which hit number one in week five thanks to soft competition and good legs, and it was awesome.  Better 3D than Avatar, too.

4/30

Wide

A NIGHTMARE ON ELM STREET

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Michael Bay just doesn’t like anyone, does he?

WILL IT SUCK?
Given Bay’s company’s track record with horror remakes, absolutely.  Trailer seems humorless, where a lot of the appeal of the original was Krueger’s wry wit.  And while I understand the appeal of hiring a video director to helm a film with a ton of dream sequences, does that mean he understands story?  Of the two screenwriters, the one with a clear track record has as much Final Analysis, Wolf, The Saint, and Doom on his resume as Cape Fear and True Believer.

That having been said, am I the only one who loves the idea of Jackie Earl Haley slipping on that glove?  He automatically improves anything he touches (witness Human Target – like the show, love him).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s very suspicious that this is the final salvo before Iron Man 2 leads the brigade of summer movies to obliterate everything else off the map.  With almost no other horror this month, seems an earlier release would have been wiser.  $65mil.

FURRY VENGEANCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Forest creatures fight Brendan Fraser as he tries to wipe out their homes to build a mall.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of College Road Trip and The Sweetest Thing (and Cruel Intentions, to be fair – and Cruel Intention 2, to continue to be fair).  And from the guys who wrote Mr. Woodcock.

It’s worth it to watch The Quiet American every now and then to remind yourself how good Brendan Fraser is.

Oh, and Ken Jeong, Rob Riggle, and Samantha Bee have gone all family friendly here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Think any kids are going to want to see Iron Man 2 next week?  $15mil.

Limited

PLEASE GIVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Man (Oliver Platt) struggles with his wife’s (Catherine Keener) philanthropic tendencies.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  From writer/director Nicole Holofcener, so get ready to get your well-written female characters on.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Babies is going to take some of the female demo next week, but I doubt it will get as much press.  $10mil.

I LOVE YOU, PHILLIP MORRIS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Boy (Jim Carrey) meets boy (Ewan MacGregor).  In prison.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  The directorial debut of Glenn Ficarra and John Requa, who wrote both Bad Santa and Cats and Dogs (still trying to wrap my head around that).  This, which they also wrote, looks to be more Bad Santa.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Easily the biggest indie release of the month, probably one of the biggest of the year.  $20mil.

THE GOOD HEART

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bar owner (Brian Cox) grooms homeless teen (Paul Dano) to take over for him when he dies.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s Paul Dano and Brian Cox, what more do you need to know?  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is a pretty crowded time to be releasing your character-driven bar movie.  $1mil.

HARRY BROWN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Michael Caine goes all Gran Torino on some British punks.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  The comparison point tends to be more Get Carter than Torino since this is a British flick, but critics are impressed.  Also, Emily Mortimer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Could you have picked a more crowded weekend?  $5mil.

Next Week: The summer begins (and probably ends) with Iron Man 2.

I tried to warn y’all that Kick-Ass wasn’t going to be a breakout hit.  Good movie, tho.  I’d forgotten how strong a director Matthew Vaughn is.  Check out Layer Cake if you haven’t already.

4/23

Wide

THE LOSERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An ousted black ops team tries to get revenge on those that done ‘em wrong.

WILL IT SUCK?
I wouldn’t be that interested in this but for Peter Berg (Friday Night Lights) co-writing the screenplay with James Vanderbilt (Zodiac).  Co-stars Zoe Saldana who will be competing with herself in the second frame of Death at a Funeral and the DVD/Blu-ray release of Avatar.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second frame of Kick-Ass won’t help, and Elm Street will steal most of the thunder the following week.  $34mil.

THE BACK-UP PLAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Couple meets cute on the day the woman (Jennifer Lopez) gets artificially inseminated.  Pregnancy romcom hilarity ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director has done some Rome and Six Feet Under.  Writer has done some Bernie Mac Show and Will & Grace.  Not a huge Jennifer Lopez fan (except for Out of Sight, that was the bomb), but I’m a couple of degrees of separation from the production company so I’m just going to assume it’s awesome.  Early buzz is meh.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Lopez does well when she sticks to her romcom wheelhouse.  $48mil.

OCEANS

(4/22)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
This year’s Disney celebration of Earth Day.

WILL IT SUCK?
Directors did Winged Migration.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Last year’s Earth, also released on Earth Day by the then newly formed Disneynature label, made some serious bank for a nature doc.  Don’t know if this will be quite as successful, but it won’t disappear.  $23mil.

Limited

BEST WORST MOVIE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ever see a movie that was so bad you had to watch it over and over and tell everyone so they’d watch it with you?  This is a documentary about that film.  It is called Troll 2.

WILL IT SUCK?
Ironically, the movie about a film with a 0% rating on Rotten Tomatoes currently has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (as of this writing).  Seriously, though, I’ve been hearing great buzz about this flick going back to last year’s SXSW.  And it doesn’t hurt that my homeboy Scott Weinberg is in the trailer (he’s the “by every conceivable measure” guy).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Far as I can tell the release pattern is more like isolated screenings rather than a straight-up limited release.  Will probably pack houses on a given night, but don’t know how much revenue that will generate in the long run.  $500,000.

Next Week: And I thought the Nightmare on Elm Street remake looked bad.  Somebody over at New Line owes Brendan Fraser a fruit basket.

Date Night opening more or less where I expected, but check out Alice in Wonderland on its way to the top 20 highest grossing films of all time (at #22 now).

4/16

Wide

DEATH AT A FUNERAL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remake of the 2007 British comedy of the same name with many more black people and exactly as many dwarves.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’m not sure if I’d feel differently if I hadn’t already seen and enjoyed the original.  And even though Neil LaButte is at the helm, I haven’t been interested in his work since The Shape of Things (and haven’t been floored since Your Friends and Neighbors).

On the other hand, exact same writer.  On yet another hand, completely different comedic style, given the cast: Chris Rock, Martin Lawrence, and Tracy Morgan – so that could be an interesting experiment (or a total disaster).

Rest of the cast ain’t half bad: Danny Glover, Zoe Saldana, Keith David, James Marsden, Luke Wilson, Regina Hall, and Ron Glass (those of you who are Firefly fans will appreciate that casting given that Alan Tudyk was in the original).  And, the aforementioned repeat casting, Peter Dinklage playing the exact same role which, in context, might be even funnier.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Rock has never been a reliable box office draw, Lawrence only occasionally fares better (usually in drag), and it’s too early to tell about Morgan.  $39mil.

KICK-ASS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Mystery Kids.  Really vulgar, bloody ones.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick good.  Matthew Vaughan is a solid director, and co-writes with his Stardust partner Jane Goldman adapting the Mark Millar comic.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t think it’s going to be a huge breakout hit, but it will take home some coin.  $72mil.

Limited

THE JONESES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
You know how there are people whose job it is to go into a bar a smoke a certain cigarette in front of you in order to sell that cigarette’s brand?  Imagine if an entire family did that.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good.  Starring David Duchovny, Demi Moore, Gary Cole, and Glenne Headly.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Marketing critique could have special punch for indie-loving crowd.  $8mil.

THE PERFECT GAME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Based on a true story, a little league team from Mexico tries to make it into the 1957 Little League World Series

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, which is a good thing given that the director’s claim to fame here is Harry and the Hendersons.  Also, Clifton Collins Jr.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A strong push in Latino communities should make for a nice turnout.  Don’t know if that push will happen.  $2mil.

THE SECRET IN THEIR EYES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Retired criminal court employee writes a novel about a 30-year-old unsolved murder/rape case in which he was involved.

WILL IT SUCK?
Just won the Oscar for Best Foreign Film so, probably not.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Oscar win will pretty much be all it has to go on which, judging by previous winners that weren’t already well-known, ain’t much.  $2mil.

Next Week: You know, after The A-Team, you’d think people would learn not to betray Special Forces units.

Even trend-crippling 3D couldn’t stop Titans from dominating the box office.

4/9

Wide

DATE NIGHT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Steve Carrell and Tina Fey’s romcom date night goes all action comedy when they get mistaken for somebody else.

WILL IT SUCK?
Love the leads.  Love the supporting cast (including Mark Wahlberg, Taraji P. Henson, Common, William Fichtner, Kristen Wiig, James Franco, Mila Kunis, and Nick Kroll).  But no confidence in director Shawn Levy (Night at the Museum 1 & 2, Cheaper by the Dozen, The Pink Panther, Just Married) to bring the funny and even though the writer only has an “additional screenplay material” credit on Shrek the Third, that’s still enough to make me nervous.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Look how well Tina Fey did with Amy Poehler.  Now replace Amy Poehler with Steve Carrell.  $90mil.

LETTERS TO GOD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Mailman gets inspired by cancer-stricken kid’s letters to God.

WILL IT SUCK?
As the trailer proudly touts, from one of the producers of Facing the Giants and Fireproof, if that gives you some of the flavor.  Most of the cast and crew are relative newbies, tho.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s certainly not going to have to compete with Kick-Ass.  $14mil.

Limited

THE SQUARE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Just like The Box, but in 2D.  Actually, Aussie noir about a guy cheating on his wife with a criminal’s spouse.  But that part about being in 2D is true.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Got a ton of nods at the AFI (that’s Australian Film Institute) awards.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not exactly the most high profile kid on the block, but comparisons to early Coen Bros. should at least get them some early Coen Bros. money.  $3mil.

WHO DO YOU LOVE?

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The true story of Chess Records (launched Bo Diddley & Muddy Waters, among others).

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, it’s Whom Do You Love?, but nobody listen to the grammar nerd!  Early buzz is kind of meh, but the thought of Chi McBride as Willie Dixon and Alessandro Nivola as Leonard Chess is pretty intriguing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Those who have heard of Chess Records are not necessarily the same as those who frequent the art house.  $1mil.

Next Week: “I love South Park and all, but what if I want to see live action kids cussing?”  Have I got the film for you.