As much as I overestimated Shrek‘s appeal, I overestimated MacGruber waaaaaay more.  $4 million?  Ouch.

5/28

Wide

PRINCE OF PERSIA: THE SANDS OF TIME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jake Gyllenhaal protects a time-altering dagger from bad guys.

WILL IT SUCK?
Here’s the good news: They got director Mike Newell (Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Donnie Brasco) on the case.  Here’s where I lose wood: The writers penned The Uninvited and Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights.  This might be an early bellweather for Sorcerer’s Apprentice because a lot of the same writers show up there, too. At least the original writer of the video game has a “screen story” credit, but the curse of all video game movies sucking is unlikely to end here.  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Coming off the second frame of Shrek doesn’t help but nothing really facing it the following week.  The bigger problem is that video game movies almost never make tentpole money.  $86 mil. (which would make it the second most successful video game movie of all time, behind Lara Croft: Tomb Raider)

SEX AND THE CITY 2

(5/27)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The city, in this case, is Abu Dhabi.

WILL IT SUCK?
Same team as last time, so no reason to expect anything terribly different.  Joining the cast this time are Miley Cyrus, Penelope Cruz, and Liza Minelli, and look out for the return of John Corbett.

Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Killers is going to be a little bit of a challenge next week, but not much.  $190mil.

Limited

MICMACS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy gets revenge against the men who put a bullet in his brain.  Quirky, endearing revenge.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s been five long years since Jean-Pierre Jeunet’s last writer/directorial effort, the amazing A Very Long Engagement, his follow up to the classic Amelie, so, yeah, I’ve been waiting for this one.  Early buzz is solid.  At SXSW, I heard it described lovingly as Jeunet does Ocean’s Eleven.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Jeunet’s films never make as much as they deserve.  $7mil.

GEORGE A. ROMERO’S SURVIVAL OF THE DEAD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In Romero’s sixth installment in the undead saga, two families war over what should be done with all these damn zombies.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed.  The worst yet from Romero according to IMDb users.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Unlikely to fare much better than Diary of the Dead.  In fact, I won’t be surprised if it makes far more in its month of VOD release in advance of theatrical.  $1mil.

Next Week: A supporting character from Forgetting Sarah Marshall gets his own movie.

Not only is there a new episode of Hotcha Zimzam out (below), but Kevin Smokler and I have ressurrected the Talking Pictures podcast.  Check out the reboot, covering Summer Movies, here.

And now, Hotcha Zimzam…

Second frame of Iron Man 2 beats first frame of Robin Hood.  In other news, sky still blue, water still wet.

5/21

Wide

SHREK FOREVER AFTER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It’s a Wonderful Shrek

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is split, with audiences more in love than critics.  This is not surprising, as it comes from the director of Surviving Christmas and Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo (and, to be fair, Sky High) and co-writers that span Date Night, Lost, and Shrek the Third.  Keep an ear out for Jon Hamm and Jane Lynch.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
While Shrek the Third saw diminished returns, this one’s in 3D.  $382mil.

MACGRUBER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Clearly an SNL skit that works best in 30 second installments should be a feature-length film.  Any child knows this.

WILL IT SUCK?
Here’s the shocker.  Early buzz is actually really good.  Cast looks fun: Will Forte, Val Kilmer, Ryan Phillipe, Kristen Wiig, and Powers Boothe.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think it’s been long enough since we’ve had an SNL movie that this won’t necessarily suffer from that curse.  Plus it’s a nice R-rated alternative to Shrek.  $56mil.

Limited

HOLY ROLLERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jewish Orthodox drug dealers.  True story.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed.  Nice to see Jesse Eisenberg working with Justin Bartha, tho.  Q-Tip doesn’t hurt, either.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Fairly slim pickings in Inidieville.  But not huge stars.  $8mil.

Next Week: The return of Jean-Pierre Jeunet.

Iron Man 2 did not challenge Dark Knight‘s opening, as some tracking had predicted, but it came in second for best May opening after Spidey 3, which is no bad shakes, and beat its predecessor by over $30 million so, no tears.  The movie itself is not as consistent as Iron Man, but is still very, very good.  Then again, Robert Downey Jr. could do taxes for two hours and make it entertaining.

5/14

Wide

ROBIN HOOD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe go all Gladiator on this shit.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is Ridley Scott we’re talking here, son.  He rarely sucks.  He does disappoint occasionally.  Tell ya what.  It’ll look great.  Brian Helgeland as often as not is on targtet w/ his screenplays (Mystic River, LA Confidential).  Although I have my doubts that there’s anything new to say about Robin Hood.  And at least one early preview attendee was unimpressed.  The rest of the early buzz is positive.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sandwiched between Iron Man 2 and Shrek Forever After is not a good place for even Russell Crowe to be.  $82mil.

LETTERS TO JULIET

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Amanda Seyfried tries to help Vanessa Redgrave find her long lost love.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Gary Winick hasn’t exactly gotten back to his Tadpole roots yet, and this probably won’t help.  Still, he’s working with a solid cast (Gael Garcia Bernal and Franco Nero are also up in here), and one of the writers did a bunch of Eerie, Pennsylvania eps and the other was one of the 50 or so writers on Flushed Away, so that’s something, right?

Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Good blockbuster counterprogramming, but Just Wright had the same idea.  $60mil.

JUST WRIGHT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Physcial therapist (Queen Latifah) falls for the basketball player (Common) she’s treating.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Sanaa Hamri, whose Something New and Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 are supposed to be halfway decent.  From writer Michael Elliot, whose Brown Sugar is probably better than his Like Mike, but you can see his basketball pedigree.

Early buzz is mixed-to-meh.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
While targeting a slightly different demo than Juliet, still a lot of crossover.  $38mil.

Next Week: Now why did SNL stop making movies again?

So I guess Nightmare wasn’t the body dump I was expecting it to be.  We’ll see if business holds in the wake of the movie to end all movies (or at least Dark Knight‘s opening weekend), but it’s on track now, at least, to beat my prediction by a full third.

5/7

Wide

IRON MAN 2

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
He hates Iron Man, duh-de-duh-de-duh-duh, Mick-ey Rourke!

WILL IT SUCK?
Jon Favreau is back and is a known and welcome quantity as a director.  Justin Theroux only has one other screenplay under his belt, but it’s Tropic Thunder so I’m satisfied.  Whole cast (minus Terence Howard) is back plus Mickey Rourke, Sam Rockwell, Don Cheadle, and John Slattery.

Early buzz is mildly disappointed, but still happy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Summer may blow its load early.  Be surprised if anything actually beats this.  $444mil.

BABIES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about four babies growing up in Namibia, Mongolia, Japan, and the US, respectively.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to get a read on this one since not much is known about the filmmakers.  That having been said, if you like babies, you’ll get your fill.  Cute trailer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t know about releasing it wide, but this is certainly good counterprogramming for Iron Man.  $1mil.

Limited

MOTHER AND CHILD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ensemble drama about several mothers/would-be mothers (Annette Bening, Naomi Watts, Kerry Washington).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Writer/director Rodrigo Garcia’s (Nine Lives, Things You Can Tell Just By Looking At Her) best work, sez IMDb users.  Also starring Samuel L. Jackson, David Morse, Tatyana Ali, S. Epatha Merkerson, Jimmy Smits, Cherry Jones, and Shareeka Epps.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Really?  You’re going to release a movie called Mother and Child the same day as a movie called Babies.  Actually, probably won’t matter.  $1mil.

CASINO JACK AND THE UNITED STATES OF MONEY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Alex Gibney (Taxi to the Dark Side, Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room) takes on Jack Abramoff.  And Congress.

WILL IT SUCK?
This stars Paul Rudd as the voice of Michael Scanlon and Stanley Tucci as the voice of Jack Abramoff.  I’m not sure what that means, but I want to find out.  Early buzz is good, and Gibney knows his stuff.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gibney’s good, but he’s not box office.  $2mil.

Next Week: Betcha Russell Crowe can do a better English accent than Kevin Costner.