No real surprises in the box office as even a solid Adam Sandler open can’t beat the second frame of what will likely be the highest grossing Toy Story of them all.

7/1

Wide

THE TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE

(6/30)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vampires.  Werewolves.  Mopey teens.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very much of the “best-in-the-series-for-what-that’s-worth” variety.  Directed by the guy who did 30 Days of Night and Hard Candy, which kind of makes sense until you realize the producers don’t want Twilight to be either a hardcore vampire flick or a hardcore teen flick.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second installment did $100mil more than the first.  Advance sales are the best for any movie of 2010 so far.  $347mil.

THE LAST AIRBENDER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kid with special powers is destined to do some shit.

WILL IT SUCK?
Remember when “from director M. Night Shyamalan” meant something good?  I’m just happy Dev Patel is finding work post-Slumdog.  Aasif Mandvi, Cliff Curtis, and Randall Duk Kim are up in here, too.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will get Toy Story 3′s table scraps.  $38mil.

Limited

LOVE RANCH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Best Little Whorehouse in Reno

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Taylor Hackford (Ray, An Officer and a Gentleman), starring his wife, Helen Mirren, and Joe Pesci, and written by the guy who penned The Believer and American Gangster.  So why is the early buzz so awful?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Kids Are All Right will give this a run for it’s money next week, but this week there’s not much more indie-friendly star power in sight.  $5mil.

GREAT DIRECTORS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Documentary interviewing ten great directors.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, do you think it would be harder to make this film if it were called something else?  “Hi, I’m making a documentary called Adequate Directors and I think you’d be perfect for it!”  Choices here are compelling: Bernardo Bertolucci, David Lynch, Stephen Frears, Agnes Varda, Ken Loach, Liliana Cavani, Todd Haynes, Catherine Breillat, Richard Linklater and John Sayles.  Glad to see some women represented but what about some Lee’s (Ang and Spike) to add some color?  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Film nerds like me will eat this up, but there’s only so many of us.  $1mil.

Next Week:  You know what we need?  Another Alien and/or Predator movie.  That will solve everything.

Best. Pixar. Open. Ever. And not for nothing, but Karate Kid (which is now up to 70% on Rotten Tomatoes) is looking to push $175 million before all is said and done.

6/25

Wide

GROWN UPS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Five comedians, er, high school buddies (Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, David Spade, Rob Schneider) get together with their families after their high school basketball coach passes away.

WILL IT SUCK?
We keep hoping director Denis Dugan will make another Happy Gilmore, but he keeps making I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry and You Don’t Mess With the Zohan and Saving Silverman and The Shaggy Dog and National Security and Beverly Hills Ninja and Problem Child.  Sandler’s co-writer here has Without a Paddle, Joe Dirt, and Dirty Work to his credit.

Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sandler’s box office power when he sticks to his wheelhouse is undeniable.  Especially when you team him with another comedian.  $149mil.

KNIGHT AND DAY

(6/23)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Secret agent (Tom Cruise) sweeps ordinary woman (Cameron Diaz) off her feet and into a world of adventure.

WILL IT SUCK?
For what looks like a crappy comeback vehicle for Cruise, you’ve got a pretty serious director on board (James Mangold, he of 3:10 to Yuma, Copland, and Walk the Line).  Also, three of my favorite actors (Paul Dano, Peter Sarsgaard, Viola Davis) are also up in here.  Much as the Cruise hate is easy to sling, I actually have high hopes for this one.  Early buzz is kind of meh, but not bad.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m not sure what, if anything, can resurrect Cruise’s career, but this ain’t it.  $74mil.

Limited

RESTREPO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Documentary about one year in the life of a platoon in Afghanistan

WILL IT SUCK?
Won the Grand Jury Prize for Docs at Sundance so, probably not.  From writer-turned-co-director Sebastian Junger (he also has a book out on the same subject).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Unless your last name is Moore, your war doc will have a hard time of it.  $1mil.

WILD GRASS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dude stalks this chick with mad crazy hair.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Hiroshima mon amour.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Exactly how many of you have seen Hiroshima mon amour?  $500,000.

Next Week: You think True Blood has werewolves this season just to show Twilight how it’s done?

So I knew Karate Kid would beat The A-Team, but I didn’t realize by how much.

6/18

Wide

TOY STORY 3

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woody and the toys go to day care.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  I’ll try to act surprised.  (Oh, and just because they could, they had Little Miss Sunshine‘s Michael Arndt co-write the screenplay.)

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pixar is gonna show all these would-be blockbusters how this shit is done.  $319mil.

JONAH HEX

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Another comic you’ve never heard of takes a crack at the gold cup.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Jimmy Hayward, who did a decent job with Horton Hears a Who, and from the screenwriters behind Gamer and the Crank movies, so, yeah, that happened.  Decent cast, tho: Josh Brolin, John Malkovich, Will Arnett, Tom Wopat, Michael Shannon, and Wes Bentley.

Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even comic book fans are going to go see Toy Story 3.  $48mil.

Limited

I AM LOVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Tilda Swinton goes to Italy.  Has affair.  Speaks Italian.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is overwhelmingly good.  Won a couple of international film fest awards.  Writer/director’s last film (Melissa P.) supposed to be a bit of a sensation, too.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cyrus is going to get more press.  $1mil.

CYRUS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Man (John C. Reilly) dates woman (Marisa Tomei) with grown son (Jonah Hill).  Awkward ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  The first established star effort from mumblecore founders Jay and Mark Duplass.  Also stars Catherine Keener.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not going to be a huge hit, but will still easily be the brothers biggest hit yet.  $2mil.

8: THE MORMON PROPOSITION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc on the controversy surround the Mormon Church’s involvement in Prop 8.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed but getting better closer to launch.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hot button topic will guarantee press. $2mil.

THE KILLER INSIDE ME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Casey Affleck goes all sociopath on your ass.

WILL IT SUCK?
Michael Winterbottom is one of the strongest, unheralded directors out there, and to my knowledge he’s never directed a noir before, so that’s exciting in and of itself.  Plus, Casey Affleck proved himself a force to be reckoned with after the one-two punch of Gone Baby Gone and Assassination of Jesse James.  Jessica Alba, Ned Beatty, Bill Pullman, and Elias Koteas are all up in here, too.  Plus Kate Hudson in what looks to be her first interesting role since, well, Almost Famous.

All that having been said, early buzz is mixed.  Apparently it’s a little too sociopathic.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Winterbottom, while awesome, never makes money unless Angelina Jolie is in his movie.  $1mil.

LET IT RAIN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Successful woman appears in documentary while visiting her family.  French comedy ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Writer/director Agnes Jaoui is known for light, charming comedy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I haven’t heard of Jaoui, either. $500,000.

Next Week: Of whom do we have lower expectations, Tom Cruise or Adam Sandler?

It’s kind of sad when none of four new releases can top Shrek‘s diminishing returns.  This is weekend three, people!

By the way, Get Him to the Greek ain’t half bad, but could use a third act polish.  Music’s actually really, really good (or I’m just a sucker Britpop, even when the band’s fictional).

6/11

Wide

THE A-TEAM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
This time they’re Iraq War veterans accused of a crime they didn’t commit.

WILL IT SUCK?
Yes, Joe Carnahan is directing, but the analog isn’t Narc, it’s Smokin’ Aces, which is not nearly as good an action film as Narc is a crime drama.  Also, Skip Woods, of Wolverine, Hitman, and Swordfish fame is one of the co-screenwriters.  Casting-wise, I think it’s kind of neat that Sharlto Copley is playing Murdock, but that’s about it.

Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Next week Toy Story 3 destroys everything in sight, so it’s kind of a Pyrrhic victory to win this weekend, but this will probably split fairly evenly with Karate Kid, which might rake in a little more w/ kids.  $117mil.

THE KARATE KID

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kid (Will Smith’s kid) moves to China for some reason with his way over-cast mom (Taraji P. Henson) and learns a martial art not in the title from Jackie Chan.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of The Pink Panther 2 and Agent Cody Banks.  By the way, is there any reason to call this The Karate Kid, other than to vaguely capitalize on the memories of Gen X’ers like myself who, smart-asses that we are, will likely reject the idea out of hand because it’s called The Karate Kid?  Why not just call it The Kung Fu Kid, get the implicit “inspired by” cred and capitalize on the real assets, which are Smith, Chan and an action/coming-0f-age/family-friendly plot?

Early buzz is surprisingly split.  I was expecting an avalanche of hate.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The 2 1/2 hour run time will cut down on screenings (seriously, that’s a consideration) but this will have more families turn out, which will up the box office.  $135mil.

Limited

JOAN RIVERS: A PIECE OF WORK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about Joan Rivers.

WILL IT SUCK?
From writer/directors Ricki Stern and Anne Sundberg, whose The Devil Came on Horseback and The Trials of Darryl Hunt are two of the most heartbreaking docs I’ve ever seen.  This is supposed to heartbreaking, too, though in a slightly different way, I suspect.  Won the Documentary Film Editing Award at Sundance.  Early buzz is fantastic.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Celebrity bio-docs are an uphill battle, especially with bigger Sundance splash Winter’s Bone opening opposite. $1mil.

WINTER’S BONE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In the Ozarks, a young woman (Jennifer Lawrence) has to track down her criminal father before the bail bond costs her her home.

WILL IT SUCK?
Won two awards at Sundance, including the Grand Jury Award, plus another couple of wins at Berlin.  Lawrence is supposed to be outstanding.  Also starring the inimitable John Hawkes.  Early buzz is phenomenal.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some heavy hitters coming up next week, but this should hold its own.  $3mil.

COCO CHANEL & IGOR STRAVINSKY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Coco After Chanel

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is split.  The Age’s Jake Wilson calls it “a feature-length perfume commercial.”  But hey, Mads Mikkelsen as Stravinsky!

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will be Infamous to Coco Before Chanel‘s Capote.  $750,000.

GANGSTER’S PARADISE: JERUSALEMA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
South African crime epic.

WILL IT SUCK?
Cleaned up at several African film festivals.  Early buzz is outstanding.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will get buried under the weight of higher profile indies. $500,000

Next Week: Can Pixar pull off a trilogy?

While I didn’t realize I was predicting the lowest-grossing Memorial Day weekend in 17 years at the time, the low returns for Prince of Persia and Sex and the City 2 fit the bill.  I guess what I didn’t consider was Shrek 4 only coming in around $20 million higher.

6/4

Wide

KILLERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
So I Married a Contract Killer

WILL IT SUCK?
I’ll give director Robert Luketic credit for Legally Blonde, but he also made The Ugly Truth, Win a Date With Tad Hamilton, and Monster-in-Law, which is enough to counteract a co-writing credit from  Ted Griffin (Ocean’s Eleven, Matchstick Men).  And then there’s Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Kutcher and Heigl are middling draws on a crowded weekend.  $49mil.

GET HIM TO THE GREEK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jonah Hill tries to wrangle that crazy British rock star from Forgetting Sarah Marshall.

WILL IT SUCK?
If you’re gonna spin off a character from Forgetting Sarah Marshall, I guess it makes sense to keep the same director.  He writes, too, this time, which is a good thing if you liked Yes Man and Fun With Dick and Jane.  Aziz Ansari and Nick Kroll are up in here, too.  Early buzz is good, with special praise reserved for P.Diddy.  Seriously.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
About as good a chance as any in an overcrowded weekend.  $64mil.

MARMADUKE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Garfield with a dog.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Failure to Launch and Showtime (and Shanghai Noon, but unless Jackie Chan is going to fight the dog, I don’t think that will help – although that would make an awesome movie).  From writers behind License to Wed.  And there’s a Huffington Post article called “The Marmaduke Trailer May Be the Worst Thing Ever.”  The Onion A.V. Club has, in fact, devoted its entire Summer Movie Preview to how each film will compare to Marmaduke.  And then you see that Lee Pace, Judy Greer, and William H. Macy are all mixed up in this somehow and you get sad.

Early buzz is pretty awful.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People like talking animals.  $86mil.

SPLICE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Species, but this one is homegrown.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is from the guy who wrote and directed Cube (he co-writes here, too).  Cast may seem like overkill for what looks like a simple horror tale (Adrien Brody and Sarah Polley) and early buzz (which is very good) says that helps.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s a crowded weekend, but not crowded with horror.  $35mil.

Limited

ONDINE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy (Colin Farrell) catches a mermaid (or, more likely, a woman) in his fishing nets.  Romance/drama/thriller ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Written and directed by Neil Jordan which, as often as not, is a good thing and, as a bonus, lensed by Hero‘s Chris Doyle.  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Winter’s Bone is gonna be the bigger indie news next week.  $8mil.

FINDING BLISS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Zak and Miri Make a Porno in reverse; Leelee Sobieski makes a non-porno in the off hours of an adult entertainment studio.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer/director of Amy’s Orgasm.  Getting mixed reviews, although Ed Gonzalez includes this choice quote in his take: “Like the most blithering chick flicks, Finding Bliss obnoxiously and misleadingly wants to have its cake and get eaten too.”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Needs better word of mouth to find an audience.  $1mil.

LIVING IN EMERGENCY: STORIES OF DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Title is pretty self-explanatory.

WILL IT SUCK?
Was on the short list for the most recent Best Doc Oscar but didn’t get a nod.  By most accounts, totally deserved one.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if it had gotten a nod, hard to make bank if you don’t win.  $750,000.

Next Week: Close your eyes.  The double-whammy of A-Team and Karate Kid will be over soon enough.