Inception still rules the roost.

6/30

Wide

DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Paul Rudd has to bring an idiot (Steve Carell) to dinner to impress his boss and outdo his co-workers who are bringing their own idiots.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Jay Roach knows comedy (and, even more so, drama).  Writers did The Ex, which is less promising.  Remake of the French comedy The Dinner Game.  Great cast: including Carell and Rudd you’ve got Zach Galifianakis, Jemaine Clement, Bruce Greenwood, Ron Livingston, Larry Wilmore, Kristen Schaal, and Nick Kroll.  Early buzz is great.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Other Guys is going to be a problem the following week.  This week is free and clear.  $99mil.

CATS & DOGS: THE REVENGE OF KITTY GALORE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like X2: X-Men United, except with more crying and “Why did they make a sequel?” bursts of anger.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writers of Brother Bear, Chicken Little, and Open Season so, meh.  Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Step Up 3D is a credible threat next week, for 3D screens and some of the audience.  Charlie St. Cloud won’t help much, either.  $46mil.

CHARLIE ST. CLOUD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy (Zac Efron) is torn between a new love and the ghost/memory of his dead little brother, with whom he plays catch every day.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Burr Steers ain’t foolin’.  He helmed an auspicious debut with Igby Goes Down before directing Efron to better-than-expected reviews in 17 Again.  Screenplay comes from frequent Baz Luhrmann collaborator Craig Pearce and the less consistent Lewis Colick (everything from Domestic Disturbance to October Sky – at least the latter is more on topic, genre-wise).

Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As Efron strays from his wheelhouse, so falls his box office.  $32mil.

Limited

GET LOW

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Unpopular man (Robert Duvall) holds his own funeral with the help of Bill Murray and Lucas Black.

WILL IT SUCK?
Saw this at SXSW and it was quite good.  Murray especially (and predictably) is delectable in his low-key role as the town mortician.  Also starring Sissy Spacek.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is not a very showy film (to its credit), so it’s going to be hard to get attention.  $4mil.

THE EXTRA MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy (Paul Dano) moves in with an eccentric older guy (Kevin Kline) who occasionally works as an escort for widows.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer/directors of American Splendor (R.I.P. Harvey) and, admittedly, The Nanny Diaries, but this is getting Splendor buzz.  Also starring John C. Reilly and Katie Holmes (yeah, she’s still acting).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The buzz for Kline’s performance might give this an edge over Get Low. $5mil.

THE DRY LAND

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy comes home from Iraq and is perfectly fine.  No, wait, the other thing.  Completely fucked up.  That’s the one.

WILL IT SUCK?
Glad to see America Ferrara hasn’t forgotten her indie roots.  Also starring Wilmer Valderrama, Ethan Suplee, and Melissa Leo.  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Lesser star power and the curse of Iraq movies will hurt.  $1mil.

HUGH HEFNER: PLAYBOY, ACTIVIST AND REBEL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about a guy who did stuff like publish the last essay written by MLK in between getting untold quantities of poon.

WILL IT SUCK?
Directed by a woman, in case you were wondering.  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Just too many voices in the indiesphere at this point.  $1mil.

Next Week: Will Ferrell.  No, not Anchorman 2.  Stop asking.

Inception, Leo’s biggest open ever, will end up doing a little better than I expected (thank you America for having a brain and being willing to use it), but Sorcerer’s Apprentice?  Wow.  Just wow, dude.

Oh, and yes, Inception was the awesomest awesome to ever awesome.  But you really don’t need me to tell you that.

7/23

Wide

SALT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Agent (Angelina Jolie) is accused of being a Russian spy.  Name-clearing ass-kicking ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
I like Jolie and director Philip Noyce better in dramas, but neither exactly sucks at this sort of fare.  I keep wanting to believe writer Kurt Wimmer has another Equilibrium in him, but I somehow doubt this is it.  Always nice to see Liev Schreiber and Chiwetel Ejiofor.  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t know that this film has done enough in marketing to distinguish itself.  Inception might get two weeks at number one.  $101mil.

RAMONA AND BEEZUS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Beverly Cleary series about the misadventures of a girl and her older sister comes to life.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Aquamarine.  Hrmmm.  (That’s a Marge-like disapproving “hrmmm”.)  Early buzz is of the “meh” variety.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s sad when the upcoming release of Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore has to be considered competition, but it does.  $21mil.

Limited

LIFE DURING WARTIME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sequel to Happiness but, since it’s a Todd Solondz film, no one is played by the same actors as in the original.

WILL IT SUCK?
I haven’t walked away dissatisfied by a Solondz film yet.  Disturbed?  Usually, but never dissatisfied.  Won Best Screenplay at Venice and Allison Janney won Best Actress at Mar del Plata.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably about as good as any post-Happiness Solondz.  $750,000.

COUNTDOWN TO ZERO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about the assload of nuclear weapons on the planet and how we don’t even know where they all are.  And how they’re relatively easy to steal.  And a few other reasons it would be better if there weren’t any.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed.  From the director of the heard-it-was-awesome Blindsight.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You can say “from the makers of An Inconvenient Truth” all you like, but that doesn’t give it that gross.  $2mil.

Next Week: Steve Carrell’s third starring role of the year.

No real surprises at the box office, although, for the record, Toy Story 3 is now the highest grossing Pixar flick of all time (domestic).  Oh, and this might also be a record:  The Girl Who Played With Fire came out while The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo was still in theaters.  Can anyone else think of an example where two parts of a franchise were in their first theatrical run (in a given nation – these two already played in Sweden) simultaneously?

7/16

Wide

THE SORCERER’S APPRENTICE

(7/14)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sorcerer gets an apprentice.  It’s not rocket science.

WILL IT SUCK?
Oh, my, yes.  Early buzz is pretty awful.  Not Last Airbender awful, but still.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If bad buzz couldn’t kill Airbender… $120mil.

INCEPTION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Unbelievably bad-ass Dreamscape.

WILL IT SUCK?
Oh, my, no.  Early buzz is outstanding (like, ridiculously so).  And Chris Nolan is one of the most consistent directors out there.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Maybe I underestimate the moviegoing public, but I just don’t see them lining up for a surrealistic mindfuck that doesn’t have any kung fu.  On the other hand, Leo helped turn a less FX-heavy mindfuck into Scorcese’s biggest movie of all time.  $140mil.

STANDING OVATION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Junior High School Musical

WILL IT SUCK?
In case you were wondering, the same guy directed Ice Pirates, Mac & Me, and Mannequin: On the Move.  He also directed this.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has the edge of being a family film but lacks any name recognition.  $10mil.

Limited

THE CONCERT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Formerly ousted conductor tries to get back on stage by passing off a rag tag bunch of misfits as the Bolshoi Orchestra in Paris.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Stars Melanie Laurent (Not Diane Kruger in Inglourious Basterds). Not surprisingly, won Cesars for Best Music and Sound.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will probably fall below the radar.  $750,000.

Next Week: Save me, Beezus!

So, Dr. Wife led me to this brutally honest article about parenting and how/why it doesn’t make you happy and I thought of one particular aspect that doesn’t get covered in it that has to do with an amazing lecture by Jane McGonigal I heard at SXSW (natch) a few years ago.

One of the key points is the idea that positive psychologists have boiled down happiness to four aspects:

1. Satisfying work to do

2. The experience of being good at something

3. Time spent with people we like

4. The chance to be part of something bigger

Now think for a moment about point number two.  I know that one of the key frustrations I have as a parent is that, by definition, you can never be an expert.  You know Malcom Gladwell’s 10,000 hour rule?  Well, you can’t get that as a parent because by the time 10,000 hours have gone by the very act of parenting has changed radically.  (The closest you could get would be someone involved in professional child care, but even they have problems raising their kids.)

So the main frustration I feel as a parent is that I never feel like I’m good at it.  If my wife has a question on a particular aspect of raising Kiran, I have no idea what the answer is.  I can only make an educated guess (and that’s on a good day) but I never feel like I’m giving an authoritative answer the same way I feel when I’m giving someone advice about the web or talking about movies or even just giving someone directions to Dunkin’ Donuts.

And this is exacerbated by the fact that usually when there’s a decision to be made, a question to answer, it’s urgent.  Why is the baby crying?  We’ve tried x, y, and z.  What is the answer?  To have to give a shot in the dark answer at a time when you feel it is your duty as a parent to Know with a capital K what to do is disempowering and a little heartbreaking because the people you feel like you’re failing are very, very important to you.  (I should clarify that my wife and I make these decisions together, which is awesome, but still, feeling like you have jack to contribute to that conversation is disheartening.)

This is not to say that raising a child is a wholly miserable experience (and the article makes that distinction as well).  In fact, I experience three out of the four aspects of happiness defined in that lecture pretty regularly.  But 2?  Almost never.

For a movie that everybody hated, The Last Airbender had a helluva opening weekend, especially with Twilight sucking up plenty of oxygen.

7/9

Wide

DESPICABLE ME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bad guy gets a family.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Looks like animated fare may be the one sure bet this summer (or this year).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sorcerer’s Apprentice may be a bit of an issue the following week, but Toy Story 3 has had enough time to cool off.  $167mil.

PREDATORS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Predators hunt criminals on some random planet.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Nimrod Antal’s American work (Vacancy, Armored) hasn’t quite lived up to his Hungarian debut, Kontroll, but it hasn’t sucked, either.  Cast is decent: Adrien Brody, Topher Grace, Laurence Fishburne, Danny “How Has He Not Been In One of These Already?” Trejo.

Early buzz is of the not-as-good-as-the-original-but-Lord-is-it-better-than-the-others variety.

By the way, according to IMDB, there’s a character in here named “Black Super Predator”.  If they had named the movie that, I would’ve been there in a second.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The box office history for this franchise is kind of all over the place, but I predict this will fall on the upper end.  $70mil.

Limited

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guess Which Sperm Donor Is Coming to Dinner?

WILL IT SUCK?
You can’t argue with the cast.  Annette Bening and Julianne Moore play the lesbian parents of two kids, one of whom is the son of sperm donor Mark Ruffalo.  Won a Teddy (no, I’m not sure what that is) at the Berlin Film Festival and seemed to make a splash at Sundance.  From writer/director Lisa Cholodenko (Laurel Canyon, High Art).  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Recognizable cast, engaging trailer, good buzz.  Indie gold.  $14mil.

THE GIRL WHO PLAYED WITH FIRE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember that girl with the dragon tattoo?  Well, now she’s playing with fire.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, though not quite as good as for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.  Maybe that’s because they went with a different writer/director for the last two adaptations in the series.  By the way, though I’m not one to do anything but lament American remakes of foreign films, the Tattoo remake is looking pretty hot with Carey Mulligan and Daneil Craig in the leads and Fincher directing a Steve Zaillian script.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Millennium Trilogy, as it is called, is catching fire here as well.  $10mil.

[REC] 2

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sequel to that movie that was turned into Quarantine.

WILL IT SUCK?
Same filmmakers, so if you liked [REC], you’ll probably like this, too.  (And [REC] Genesis and [REC] Apocalypse, which are in the works.)  Early buzz is good if not quite as good as for the original.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With no Quarantine 2 in the works, wondering if fans will turn to this instead.  $1mil.

WINNEBAGO MAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Documentary about that guy.  You know, the one on the Interwebs with that winnebago commercial?  Yeah, I haven’t heard of him, either.

WILL IT SUCK?
Great trailer.  Early buzz is excellent.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Outmatched.  $250,000.

Next Week: Be psyched.  Be very psyched.

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