Given that neither film had much prospect of reaching $60 million someday, I think both Takers and The Last Exorcism are winners, even though, in the end, Takers turned out to be slightly more the winner.

9/3

Wide

MACHETE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bad guys fuck with the wrong Mexican.

WILL IT SUCK?
Is it too fanboyish of me to call this one of the most anticipated films of the year?  Ever since the faux trailer for this film appeared as one of the breaks in Grindhouse, moviegoers have wondered “what if?”  Well, apparently so was Robert Rodriguez, who co-directs with his Planet Terror/Shorts co-editor Ethan Maniquis and co-writes with his cousin Alvaro Rodriguez.  Early buzz is crazy good and the cast goes from the fun (Robert DeNiro, Jessica Alba, Michelle Rodriguez, Jeff Fahey, Cheech Marin) to the “I wonder what he’ll do with…” (Steven Seagal, Lindsay Lohan, “introducing” Don Johnson) to the hip (Tom Savini, Nimrod Antal).  But the most important casting is Danny Trejo, finally getting his time as a lead.  And when’s the last time you saw a trailer that looked like this much fun (well, besides the first Machete trailer from Grindhouse)?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much to fear from Going the Distance, but, sadly, Resident Evil Part Eleven could be just as successful the following week.  $42mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but Trejo standing in the background with a machete will keep those speeches damn short.

THE AMERICAN

(9/1)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bad guys fuck with the wrong American.

WILL IT SUCK?
George Clooney is always fun to watch, and acclaimed video director/photographer Anton Corbijn (Control) is supposed to have made it all internal and deep and shit.  Critics seem to be torn on whether or not that’s a good thing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Clooney box office is surprisingly hard to predict, but my guess is this will end up on the lower end of his brooding, indie fare.  $33mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not the film to put Clooney back in play.  Hear good things about Thekla Reuten, tho.

GOING THE DISTANCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The distance in question refers to a long distance relationship between Justin Long and Drew Barrymore.

WILL IT SUCK?
While it’s interesting that talented documentarian Nanette Burstein (The Kid Stays in the Picture, American Teen) is going the romcom route, the early buzz is quite meh.  Nice to see Jim Gaffigan get some feature work, tho.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No romcoms in sight. $26mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but Barrymore needs to direct more.  Whip It shows great promise.

Limted

MESRINE: PUBLIC ENEMY #1

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sequel to that movie I told you about last week about the legendary French gangster neither of us had ever heard of.

WILL IT SUCK?
Like its predecessor, great reviews, plus this one adds Mathieu Amalric to the mix.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
First one had a solid open, and the Girl With series proved you can have two parts of a franchise in play at the same time without hurting b.o.  $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It would be interesting to see if France did submit this, if they’d go with part one or two.

A WOMAN, A GUN AND A NOODLE SHOP

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Zhang Yimou remakes Blood Simple in period China.

WILL IT SUCK?
Yimou’s track record is impressive (To Live, Hero, Raise the Red Lantern).  Unfortunately, this is one of his least well regarded films.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Coen Bros. angle will help.  Lukewarm reviews and lack of stars won’t.  $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nope.  But how Yimou’s gone this long without a nod is beyond me.

THE WINNING SEASON

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sam Rockwell coaches girl’s varsity basketball.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed.  From the writer/director of Grace Is Gone.  Co-stars Rob Corddry and the amazing Shareeka Epps (go see Half Nelson right now).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even Grace Is Gone didn’t make that much.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nope.  But Rockwell’s due.  Did you see Moon?

WHITE WEDDING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Road trip/wedding comedy where the groom has to travel across South Africa to get to his nuptials.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty meh.  But, you know, clever title.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will get drowned in the fifty or so other movies coming out this week. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Kind of doubt it.

LAST TRAIN HOME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Documentary about the journey 130 million Chinese workers make every year to go home to be with their families.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will probably be overlooked.  $250,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I could see this making the doc short list.

Next Week: They’re just going to keep making Resident Evil films, aren’t they?

When five films go head-to-head at the end of the summer, the only winner is Sly.

8/27

Wide

TAKERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cops and robbers.  Mostly robbers.

WILL IT SUCK?
Aside from the coincidence of T.I. playing a guy who just got out of jail, there’s really nothing interesting going on here.  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The release date tells me Screen Gems never had high hopes for this one.  $16mil.

THE LAST EXORCISM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Documentary film crew records a priest’s last (and first real) exorcism.

WILL IT SUCK?
Daniel Stamm directed the woefully underseen A Necessary Death (you can see me heap praise here).  Given the premise of that film, the documentary aspect of this one should suit him well. Early buzz is great.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A hit horror film without stars is lightning in a bottle, especially in the summer.  $20mil.

Limited

CENTURION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Behind Enemy Lines – 117 A.D.

WILL IT SUCK?
Neil Marshall lost a lot of the good will of Dog Soldiers and The Descent with Doomsday, but mixed early buzz says this is a step back towards not sucking.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Masrhall has built himself up a decent following over the years.  $6mil.

MESRINE: THE KILLER INSTINCT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vincent Cassel plays legendary French gangster Jacques Mesrine (I have no idea who that is).

WILL IT SUCK?
You had me at Vincent Cassel.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It will have to compete with its sequel the following week.  But neither looks like they’ll get good exposure.  $1mil.

Next Week: The Tauntaun sleeping bag started out as a joke, too.

Did you know? You can get this preview e-mailed to you:

When in Martha’s Vineyard, please visit:

The corner where Brody buys the supplies to make “Beach Closed” signs

The ferry where the mayor convinces him everything is all right.

The beach where that Kitner boy gets it.

The bridge where the shark goes into the lagoon and eats some guy’s leg (well, actually everything but his leg).

No real box office surprises this weekend.  At this point, I’m just waiting for Toy Story 3 to make another $2 million and knock Transformers 2 out of the top ten highest grossing films of all time.

8/20

Wide

NANNY MCPHEE RETURNS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The eponymous supernanny (Emma Thompson) helps out Maggie Gyllenhaal (proving she’s not the only one in her marriage who can put on a British accent) with her rotten, rotten children and their spoiled cousins.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, if you haven’t seen the original, it’s actually pretty good.  Thompson, who wrote the original, writes again and early buzz says it’s even better.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is really about the international gross.  $37mil.

PIRANHA 3D

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Not just piranha.  Super, big-ass, prehistoric piranha!

WILL IT SUCK?
This is from the guys who wrote the Sorority Row remake which, given the level of camp this is likely to reach (they’ve recast Richard Dreyfuss as Hooper from Jaws and Chris Lloyd has never looked sillier), that might not be a bad thing.  If it weren’t for the high levels of gore director Alexandre Aja (High Tension, The Hills Have Eyes, Mirrors) has added to the mix, I might actually enjoy the crapulence.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Last Excorcism might be a problem next week, but I doubt it.  $32mil.

VAMPIRES SUCK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vampire Movie

WILL IT SUCK?
Please.  Just.  Make.  It.  Stop.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I hate to say it, but these movies hit more often than miss.  $29mil.

LOTTERY TICKET

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy (Bow Wow) gets a winning lottery ticket but has to hold on to it for 3 days before he can cash it in.  The neighbors find out, and hilarity ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
The only thing interesting about this is that Ice Cube is now essentially playing the dad role John Witherspoon played when Cube was in Friday.  Sunrise.  Sunset.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Friday, it ain’t.  $11mil.

THE SWITCH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Jennifer Aniston) uses artificial insemination to get pregnant, not knowing that, through a mishap, her platonic friend (Jason Bateman) is the donor.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the directors of Blades of Glory but from the writer of 21.  Nice to see Patrick Wilson up in here, tho.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
2nd frame of Eat Pray Love may be an issue.  Will probably fall on the lower end of the Aniston romcom spectrum.  $41mil.

Limited

MAO’S LAST DANCER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy becomes a dancing sensation in China, then America, but then China wants him back.  Based on a true story.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Bruce Beresford (Driving Miss Daisy, Tender Mercies, Breaker Morant).  Early buzz is great.  Apparently, would have won the audience award at Toronto last year if it hadn’t been for some film called Precious.  With Bruce Greenwood, Kyle MacLachlan, and Joan Chen.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has a fairly open playing field, although Tillman Story will provide a little grief.  $3mil.

THE TILLMAN STORY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about football-player-turned-soldier Pat Tillman’s death in Afghanistan and how his family investigates the ensuing cover-up.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Amir Bar-Lev (My Kid Could Paint That) and writer Mark Monroe (The Cove).  Early buzz is outstanding.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
War docs have it tough, though the subject matter in this case may give it a little more press than usual.  $2mil.

Next Week: The director of a film I championed two years ago finally makes it to the big time.

The Other Guys topples Inception to no one’s surprise while Toy Story 3 quietly becomes the 11th highest grossing movie of all time.

8/13

Wide

EAT PRAY LOVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Julia Roberts) goes on a journey of self-discovery after getting a divorce.

WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Ryan Murphy’s last adaptation was the less-than-stellar Running With Scissors.  Nice supporting cast, tho: Richard Jenkins, Javier Bardem, Billy Crudup, Viola Davis, and James Franco.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much competition.  This is close to Roberts’ very lucrative wheelhouse.  $95mil.

SCOTT PILGRIM VS. THE WORLD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Boy (Michael Cera) meet girl (Mary Elizabeth Winstead).  Boy, of course, must defeat girl’s seven evil ex-boyfriends.

WILL IT SUCK?
Besides getting a thumbs up from J.J. Abrams at comic-con and Boxcutters‘ Josh Kinal declaring it “a film so good even those who’re dead inside enjoy it,” you’ve got Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz writer/director Edgar Wright on the job.  Also starring Kieran Culkin, Anna Kendrick, Brandon Routh, Jason Schwartzman, and Bill Hader.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is a fairly niche audience, so it’s kind of hard to tell.  $39mil.

THE EXPENDABLES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Let’s get together a bunch of action icons (Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren, Jet Li, Jason Statham, Steve Austin) together and, um, that’s pretty much it.

WILL IT SUCK?
Written and directed by Sly, which on a good day means Rocky Balboa, but on a bad day means Rocky’s II – IV, Rambo (2008), and Staying Alive. Early buzz indicates that it’s a bad day.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think nostalgia will get the better of people.  $71mil.

Limited

ANIMAL KINGDOM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kid goes to live with his criminal extended family.  Godfather-type shit ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Won the Grand Jury Prize (World Cinema – Dramatic) at Cannes.  Early buzz is sick.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
At least by reputation, probably the best indie bet of the week.  $5mil.

TALES FROM EARTHSEA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Some Hiyayo Miyazaki-style shit with dragons from his son, Goro.

WILL IT SUCK?
Adapted from the Ursula Le Guin novel, if that does anything for you.  Early buzz is not quite up to the elder Miyazaki’s standard.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given his old man’s rep, I would not underestimate Goro’s box office potential.  $4mil.

LA SOGA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dominican Republic Confidential

WILL IT SUCK?
Well Junot Diaz loves it, so what’s your problem?  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Like many foreign thrillers before it, not so well.  $1mil.

PEEPLI LIVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cameras arrive when a poor Indian farmer announces he will kill himself to make his family money.

WILL IT SUCK?
Audiences are more in love than critics, but early buzz is generally good.  Based on a true story.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hard for foreign comedies, too.  $500,000.

Next Week: I rather liked Nanny McPhee, but I don’t remember asking for a sequel.  Um, thanks?

Inception holding strong and Kids Are All Right looking like it’ll be this summer’s (500) Days of Summer.  And then there’s the overreaction to Cats and Dogs‘ craptactular numbers as a death knell for 3D, as if Despicable Me hadn’t just hoovered cash less than a month ago (not to mention Pixar’s highest grossing film of all time being only their 2nd foray into the 3rd dimension).  Let’s wait for, say, five 3D films in a row to flop before we start making empty promises, mmm’kay?

8/6

Wide

THE OTHER GUYS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bumbling cops (Will Ferrell, Mark Whalberg) live in the shadow of supercops (Samuel L. Jackson, Dwayne Johnson) until they stumble upon a big case.

WILL IT SUCK?
More often than not, Adam McKay proves to be good writing/directing mojo for Ferrell (Step Brothers vs. Anchorman and Talladega Nights).  Not happy that a Land of the Lost writer is also up in here, tho.  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Dinner for Schmucks can’t provide a decent challenge, I doubt Scott Pilgrim will next week, either.  $101mil.

STEP UP 3D

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
More dancing.  Oh, and to look at the trailer, some of those kids are from Tron.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz can probably be summed up by this quote: “It’s not good, but it’s a lot of fun.”

By the way, if you’re looking for a movie with amazing dance sequences and a lack of suck, check out Planet B-Boy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is a fairly solid franchise.  $47mil.

MIDDLE MEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Internet Porn Begins

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, which is encouraging since writer/director George Gallo’s track record isn’t consistent (Local Color on one end and Trapped in Paradise on the other).  Stars Luke Wilson, Giovanni Ribisi, James Caan, Kelsey Grammer, Kevin Pollak, and Robert Forster.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not sure why they’re releasing this wide.  This seems like early fall indie art house fodder.  $18mil.

Limited

TWELVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Rich white kids deal drugs on the Upper East Side.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good, but Roger Ebert likes it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Chace Crawford could draw some teens, if teens generally went to art house films.  $4mil.

FLIPPED

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
When Little Harry Met Little Sally

WILL IT SUCK?
From the formerly awesome Rob Reiner, who is writing again for the first time since Spinal Tap, but his writing partner did North, Bait, and a Kangaroo Jack sequel.  Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without stars, it’s very hard for a kid’s film to get traction, especially an indie kid’s film.  $7mil.

THE DISAPPEARANCE OF ALICE CREED

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Gemma Arterton) gets kidnapped.  Woman fights back.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  And who doesn’t wanna see Eddie Marsan kidnap somebody?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This weekend is getting way too crowded.  $2mil.

THE OXFORD MURDERS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
John Hurt and Elijah Wood play a professor and a grad student trying to solve a code-laced killing spree at Oxford University.

WILL IT SUCK?
From Ferpect Crime writer/director Alex de la Iglesia.  This one’s not getting nearly the reception of his Spanish-language work.  To wit, “…makes The Da Vinci Code look like a masterpiece.”

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On a weekend this crowded, without good reviews, even Frodo won’t help.  $1mil.

CAIRO TIME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Patricia Clarkson and Alexander Siddig hang out in Cairo.  Clarkson’s married to someone else, but, dude, it’s Alexander Siddig!

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good.  I’d expect more outstanding raves from a Siddig/Clarkson combo, however.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, not a good weekend to be a movie.  $2mil.

Next Week: The movie that J.J. Abrams called “awesome” at Comic-Con.  Hint: Not Eat Pray Love.