Kind of a yawn of a box office weekend.  Looks like Wall Street, while on the lower end of Shia’s box office history, will do nothing to hurt his $100 million gross average.  This is why he gets work, people.

10/1

Wide

THE SOCIAL NETWORK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy founds a website.  Makes “friends.”

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick.  It should be.  Directed by David Fincher.  Written by Aaron Sorkin.  And keep an eye out for Rooney Mara and Andrew Garfield who will be The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and Spider-Man, respectively.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It will be liked.  $80mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The first serious Oscar contender of the season.  Potential nods for Best Picture, Actor, Screenplay, and another shot for Fincher as Director.

LET ME IN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remake of Let the Right One In, in which a boy befriends a very young vampire.  Well, young-looking I guess.  I mean, God knows how old she actually is.

WILL IT SUCK?
Ha-ha-ha!  That never gets old.  See, cos’ it’s vampires?  Priceless.

Anyway, if you’da asked me after I saw Let the Right One In what would happen after the inevitable American remake, I’d have said “a big sucking sound.”  However, early buzz indicates that Cloverfield director Matt Reeves (who also writes this time) has pulled it off in a big way.  Correction.  Critics think that.  Audiences appear to be a little more on the “meh” side.  Or maybe that’s just a bunch of remake hating on IMDb.

Oh, and Hit Girl (Chloe Moretz) plays the vampire.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The people who know why you should be paying attention to this movie in the first place are the same ones who probably think it will suck, so that’s problematic.  Plus, a more conventional horror film from a more conventional horror name — Wes Craven — comes out next week. $26mil.

WILL ANYONE REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If a horror film stood a chance at the Oscars more than once a decade, maybe.

CASE 39

(Delayed from January)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Child services case worker (Renee Zellwegger) takes in a troubled little girl whose parents tried to kill her.  Grudge-y shit ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Leigh Paatsch of the Victoria Herald Sun describes the film as “awfulsome,” if that gives you any clue.  This is a widely held opinion.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
“There’s a reason this three-year-old film is being dumped on January 1st.”  That’s what I wrote when it was supposed to come out in January of this year.  $8mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
We’re a long way from Chicago.

Limited

FREAKONOMICS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A hodgepodge of docu filmmakers contribute freakonomic segments.

WILL IT SUCK?
Full disclosure: I’m predisposed to hate this film because the Freakonomics writers wrote a dangerously specious article about child safety seats that represents everything my wife, who knows how to do proper research, abhors about poor science reporting.  That having been said, the slate of directors is pretty good: Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady (Jesus Camp), Alex Gibney (Taxi to the Dark Side), Seth Gordon (King of Kong), Eugene Jarecki (Why We Fight), and Morgan Spurlock (Super Size Me).  Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if you combined the box office of most of these directors, it still wouldn’t be that much.  $6mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’m sure there’s some obscure Academy rule about multiple directors that will screw that up.

HATCHET II: STILL HATCHETIN’!!!

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sole survivor from the original returns to seek revenge on the slasher who killed her friends.  Oh, and I don’t think that’s the real title.

WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Adam Green’s been busy.  Earlier this year he had Frozen, and now this, the first unrated horror film released in theaters in a long time. Early buzz is mixed but they all agree — it’s got the gore.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Honestly, the first Hatchet didn’t make that much money in theaters.  The sequel is all DVD-driven.  $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.

CHAIN LETTER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
See, if you don’t forward the chain letter, the bad guy kills you — wait for it — with chains!  I know!!!

WILL IT SUCK?
Let me explain it to you again.  He kills you with chains.  Because you broke the chain. Early buzz is actually pretty good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You know what the problem is here?  Not enough horror movies out.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Let me explain the premise one more time…

BARRY MUNDAY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Douchebag (Patrick Wilson) gets faced with the double whammy of losing his testes and a paternity suit.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s got Judy Greer, so already I’m interested (actually pretty big fan of Wilson, too).  Pretty good cast overall, with Malcom McDowell, Missi Pyle, Colin Hanks, Shea Whigham (who is just killing it on Boardwalk Empire, no?), Chloe Sevigny, Jean Smart, Emily Procter, Cybill Shepherd, Christopher McDonald, and less famous but no less talented Tenacious D member Kyle Gass.  Early buzz is relatively good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Next week it’ll get blown out of the water by things like Stone, but this week it should have mostly to itself. $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’ve been hearing good things about Wilson’s perf, but not enough to get on Academy radar.

LEAVING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Wife gets her groove back by fucking the help.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, complementing Kristin Scott Thomas and Sergi Lopez’s performances as the adulterous couple.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
About as well as Thomas’ last French lead.  $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not hearing the same kind of buzz I’ve Loved You So Long got, and even that didn’t earn Thomas a nod.

Next Week: Ed Norton’s back in jail.

The Town (which rocks, btw) makes more in its opening weekend than Gone Baby Gone made in its entire run.  By the way, it’s late September and Inception is still in the top ten.

9/24

Wide

WALL STREET: MONEY NEVER SLEEPS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Greed is still good.

WILL IT SUCK?
I was as suspicious as the next guy when I first heard about this.  And the last time Shia LaBeouf played protege to a movie icon, things didn’t turn out so well.  But, to be honest, Oliver Stone is one of my favorite directors, so his involvement lends this a lot of credibility which, apparently, is paying off in good early buzz (as good as the original on IMDb).  Oh, and having Carey Mulligan and Josh Brolin up in here doesn’t hurt.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I get the feeling The Town‘s got legs, and next week the modern Gordon Gekko takes the stage.  $53mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That’s not the kind of buzz this is getting.

YOU AGAIN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Kristen Bell) finds out her brother is marrying her high school arch enemy.  If you watch the trailer you’ll see that there’s another twist on top of that.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of The Game Plan and Race to Witch Mountain so, where’s The Rock?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The cast (Sigourney Weaver, Jamie Lee Curtis, Betty White, Kristin Chenoweth) and cross-generational plot elements could actually broaden the audience a bit.  $31mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Kristen Bell led one of the best TV shows of the 2000′s, but she’s going to need to take some more interesting roles before she gets to this party.

LEGEND OF THE GUARDIANS: THE OWLS OF GA’HOOLE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Owls fight to save their kingdom from some evil something.

WILL IT SUCK?
Wait.  This was directed by Zack Snyder?  That Zack Snyder?  Okay, I guess I’ll have to pay attention, but the trailer still annoys the crap out of me.  Oh, and the co-screenwriter did A Mighty Heart and a couple of Band of Brothers eps.  Early buzz is okay.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real kids competition, but I’m having trouble seeing this catching on.  $35mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they go to, say, five animated slots this year I could see this having a shot.

Limited

BURIED

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ryan Reynolds wakes up buried inside a coffin with a cell phone and air running out.  I get dropped calls in a six story building but he gets a signal.

WILL IT SUCK?
You think making a movie set in one room is tough?  Try one set in a box.  But early buzz has director Rodrigo Cortes pulling it off.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
By the time this goes wide it will have a lot more horror competition.  $17mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’m not hearing that kind of buzz, but this could be the picture that puts Reynolds on that path.

WAITING FOR “SUPERMAN”

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc on public schools in America.  I’m sure they only have good things to say.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of An Inconvenient Truth.  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’ve been seeing press for this all over the place for months now.  We’re not talking Truth numbers here, but we hardly ever are.  $13mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Doc short list for sure.

ENTER THE VOID

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Film seen from the point of view of a ghost who was a drug dealer when he was alive but was killed during a police raid and is now watching over his sister.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  From Irreversible writer/director Gaspar Noe, so be prepared for a bit of the ultraviolence.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Noe does not spell box office. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
France has already chosen their submission for Best Foreign Film,and this ain’t it.

YOU WILL MEET A TALL DARK STRANGER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Relationship comedy from Woody Allen.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, with audiences more in love than critics.  Good cast tho: Anthony Hopkins, Antonio Banderas, Naomi Watts, Josh Brolin.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Allen movies all kind of hover around the same mark.  $7mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
He can still knock ‘em in there (Vicky Cristina Barcelona), but not this time.

LIKE DANDELION DUST

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy gets out of jail only to find out that the son he never knew he had has been adopted by another couple.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Mira Sorvino, Barry Pepper, and Cole Hauser star.  Director did My Date With Drew (!?).  Co-writer co-penned Ali and Nixon.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This weekend is getting crowded.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I can see this flying under the radar.

HOWL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
James Franco is Allen Ginsberg.

WILL IT SUCK?
Better reaction from audiences than critics.  Nice supporting cast: Jon Hamm, Mary-Louise Parker, Jeff Daniels, David Strathairn, Alessandro Nivola, Treat Williams, Bob Balaban.  From the co-writer/directors of The Celluloid Closet, one of whom directed The Times of Harvey Milk.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, a crowded weekend, and Oscilloscope doesn’t have the marketing budget of some of its competitors. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Franco’s more likely to get a nod for 127 Hours. Also, the fact that it goes VOD day and date with theatrical might invalidate it.

Next Week: Citizen Zuckerberg

So, remember how I said Resident Evil: Afterlife was getting good buzz?  That lasted for about four seconds.  It’s currently at 14% on Rotten Tomatoes.  Nevertheless, it opened to franchise-best numbers this weekend and, yes, that probably has something to do with 3D, and if you’re wondering why 3D will probably outstay its welcome, that’s why.

9/17

Wide

EASY A

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Things take a turn for the Hawthorne when a student lies about having sex.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Fired Up does not inspire confidence in clever satire.  That he was a supervising producer on Andy Richter Controls the Universe takes us closer in the right direction.  Great cast, with Emma Stone, Amanda Bynes, Thomas Haden Church, Patricia Clarkson, Lisa Kudrow, Malcom McDowell, and Stanley Tucci.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As diverse as this weekend’s releases are, almost anything stands a chance.  $31mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but keep your eye on Stone.  She’s been making some (mostly) smart choices.

THE TOWN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bizarre love triangle between a cop (Jon Hamm), a thief (Ben Affleck), and a witness (Rebecca Hall).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Like, really good.  This should not be surprising given what Affleck brought to the table with his directing debut, Gone, Baby, Gone, one of my favorite films of 2007.  The rest of the cast doesn’t exactly suck, either — Jeremy Renner, Pete Postlethwaite, Titus Welliver, and Chris Cooper.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Wall Street will provide a challenge to the same demo next week, but this should have a decent open.  $40mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy paid attention last time, and now that he’s for real, Affleck himself could be looking at some love, given how much Oscar loves actors-turned-directors.  Hamm, Hall, and Renner are all on the table.  Even Affleck the actor is getting some good buzz.

DEVIL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
You know how much it sucks to get stuck in an elevator?  Well, it sucks slightly worse if you’re stuck in there with the Prince of Darkness.

WILL IT SUCK?
Quarantine director John Erick Dowdle helms this with his little brother, Drew.  But the name you’ve probably heard associated with this is M. Night Shyamalan, who produces and has a story credit.  You should be happy about this because the screenplay credit goes to a guy named Brian Nelson, who also wrote 30 Days of Night and Hard Candy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Wait, The Last Airbender made how much?  $45mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
We’re a long way from The Sixth Sense here.

ALPHA AND OMEGA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An alpha female and omega male wolf (get it?) are lost and must find their way back to Canada for free prescription meds.  At least that’s why I’d go.

WILL IT SUCK?
One of the directors did some Boondocks and Duckman, but the trailer makes this look more like the work of the other director, who did Brother Bear 2.  Writers did Happily N’Ever After 2 and Open Season.  Honestly the only interesting thing here is that the late Dennis Hopper did one of the voices.

Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Next week’s owl flick has been more heavily marketed and just flat out looks better.  $20mil.

Limited

NEVER LET ME GO

(9/15)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Boarding school students (Keira Knightley, Carey Mulligan, Andrew Garfield) have a nasty surprise waiting for them, and it’s not just the crappy job market.

WILL IT SUCK?
If you don’t want to know what that surprise is, avoid reviews, the trailer, and the (extremely acclaimed) Kazuo Ishiguro novel on which this is based.  From director Mark Romanek (One Hour Photo).  The writer has done some decent work for Danny Boyle (Sunshine, 28 Days Later) and has been tapped for Halo.  Cast looks outstanding (if you’re not aware of soon-to-be-Spider-Man Garfield’s chops, check out his devastating turn in Boy A).  Early buzz is great.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
One of the more anticipated films of the season.  $15mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Look for Adapted Screenplay and maybe a directing nod for Romanek.  All the leads are possibilities.

JACK GOES BOATING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Romantic drama with Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Ryan.

WILL IT SUCK?
The directorial debut of Hoffman, who directed this off-broadway when it was a play (playwright did the screenplay, too).  Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Can co-exist happily with Never Let Me Go. $7mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I don’t think Hoffman will score a directing nod right out of the gate, but both he and Ryan are always good bets for acting nods, not to mention John Ortiz and Daphne Rubin-Vega, who play a sort of counterpoint couple to the leads.

CATFISH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy meets a girl online and things get, um, interesting.

WILL IT SUCK?
Docs aren’t usually thought of as having spoilers, but as the superb trailer makes clear, you don’t want to know too much before you see this (in fact, maybe don’t watch the trailer).  Early buzz is great.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even with all the mystery, I don’t see this having more than niche appeal, especially in these thick waters.  $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I wonder if the Academy will see it as too gimmicky for the docs short list.

Next Week: Sequels, for lack of a better word, are good.

Did you know? You can get this preview e-mailed to you:

American beat Machete by a nose, but they both beat Going the Distance, and that’s all that matters.

Machete, by the way, lives up to the promise of its original trailer.  And am I the only one crying out for a Machete/Mariachi crossover flick?

9/10

Wide

RESIDENT EVIL: AFTERLIFE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Blah, blah, blah, zombies.  Blah, blah, blah 3D.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great, and it’s worth noting that Paul W.S. Anderson returns to writing/directing duty for the first time since the franchise launched.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given that it has no competition and the franchise has scary consistent b.o., just fine.  $51mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There are actually plenty of critically acclaimed zombie flicks (Night of the Living Dead, Dawn of the Dead [either version], 28 Days Later, Zombieland) but not that kind of critically acclaimed.

Limited

I’M STILL HERE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about Joaquin Phoenix’s sudden rap career.

WILL IT SUCK?
Better question: Is it real or some Andy Kaufman-esque hoax?  Better question than that: Does it matter?  Better question than that, is director Casey Affleck actually this much of a douchebag?  Answers: I don’t know. Probably not. God, I hope not.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a way, has more star power than most of the competition, but I wonder if it’s already outlived its own hype.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Unless the reviews are way better than I expect them to be, not so much.

THE VIRGINITY HIT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
American Pie done as a Jackass-ish faux doc.

WILL IT SUCK?
It is perhaps appropriate that the writer/directors behind this also wrote The Last Exorcism.  Also that one of the directors was the co-director you never heard of on Frat House, which put Todd Philips (Old School, The Hangover) on the radar.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Surprisingly low profile for a flick produced by Adam McKay and Will Ferrell.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER THIS AT OSCAR TIME?
The awkward, disturbing comedy category hasn’t been invented yet.

HEARTBREAKER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Professional break-up artist has one week to stop a wedding.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great.  Romain Duris (The Beat That My Heart Skipped) is supposed to be excellent in the lead.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
French romcoms do not generally do well in the States.  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nor do romcoms usually make the cut of films countries submit for a Best Foreign Oscar.

THE ROMANTICS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The dark, mind-bending tale of the band who did “What I Like About You?”  No, actually, friends gather for a wedding and some old shit comes up.

WILL IT SUCK?
Probably the most interesting thing about this film is the cast, which includes Katie Holmes, Anna Paquin, Josh Duhamel (getting a chance to build some indie cred), Candice Bergen, Elijah Wood, and Adam Brody.  That, and the fact that Galt Niederhoffer writes and directs her own novel.  Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Decent star power, but Paramount Famous (really?) needs to get the word out.  $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With better reviews, it could at least step on the field.

BRAN NUE DAE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Rabbit Proof Fence if it were a musical and not nearly as depressing.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Geoffrey Rush sure looks fun.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A very crowded weekend.  But there is an odd history of breakout musical Aussie hits (Strictly Ballroom; The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert).  $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I don’t think this will quite hit Priscilla levels of adoration.

LEGENDARY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
John Cena teaches some nerdy kid to wrestle.

WILL IT SUCK?
The casting of Patricia Clarkson and Danny Glover tells me this is going more for an indie vibe than your typical WWE-starring fare.  That and the indie distributor and  indie limited release.  Director did a ton of TV, including a buttload of Psych‘s. Early buzz is mixed and seems to have more problems with the script than Cena’s performance.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
How much do Cena’s fans want to see him in a drama?  How many Clarkson fans want to see her act with John Cena?  $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Without better reviews this is not Clarkson’s return to the show.

LOVELY, STILL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Martin Landau and Ellen Burstyn fall in love.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Co-starring Elizabeth Banks and Adam Scott.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If marketed right, could draw in the considerably large elderly contingent that goes to the art house.  At least in downtown Philly.  Lot of retirees in the audience when I go.  Just sayin’.  $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Numero dos for Burstyn and Landau?

Next Week: Ben Affleck sets out to prove that Gone Baby Gone was no fluke.