In which we learn that there’s very little space between my “shoulds” and my “wills”.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – Doubt
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Will Win: Penelope Cruz
Should Win: Viola Davis
Why, exactly, Penelope Cruz is favored here isn’t entirely clear. Most handicappers like her, but if you look at the record, Marisa Tomei has actually won more critics circle awards and with Kate Winslet winning every major supporting award leading up to the Oscars, minus BAFTA, it’s hard to say where the prevailing wind is actually blowing. Now, Penelope Cruz did win a supporting actress BAFTA, and Tomei already has her own little statue, so maybe that’s the logic. Whatever it is, I have, in fact, drunk the Koolaid.
To be honest, I haven’t seen Vicky Cristina Barcelona, so I could have this all wrong. But to look at Davis’ ten devastating minutes in Doubt, I’m more than happy to say that she deserves a win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Will Win: You’re kidding, right?
Should Win: No, really.
The most earned-yet-depressing lock since Peter Finch.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Will Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Meryl Streep
This is a lot closer than you think. The fact that Winslet got nods in several categories for several roles obscures what her wins “mean” in terms of Oscar odds. Ditto Streep, who split her BFCA win with Anne Hathaway, and won against Winslet’s Revolutionary Road peformance for SAG. So, while Winslet’s been giving more speeches than Streep lately, her win is nowhere near a lock. And I wouldn’t count out Hathaway, either. A Streep/Winslet split falls in her favor. Ultimately, though, I’m willing to bet that Winslet’s Lucci-esque standing vs. Streep’s already-honored standing will give Winslet the edge.
Here I have to shamefully admit that I haven’t seen The Reader. Shamefully not because The Reader is getting a bunch of accolades. It’s really not. The Dark Knight, ironically, has a better Rotten Tomatoes score (94% vs. The Reader‘s 60%). But shamefully because Winslet’s performance is supposed to be one of her best, and I consider her a great actress. But, going only by what I’ve seen, Streep gives one of her best performances here, and earns a win.
BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Will Win: Sean Penn
Should Win: Sean Penn
And you thought the Best Actress race was close. Let’s break it down. Penn has 13 wins, including BFCA and SAG. Rourke has 12 including a Golden Globe and BAFTA win. I think because of Proposition 8, the award becomes more politicized than it would have been. Voting for Penn becomes a statement. That having been said, Penn already has a statue, and Rourke is living a redemption narrative, and Hollywood eats. that. shit. up. So I’d damn near call it a tie. But that’s no fun so I’m just going to say Penn.
I’d be happy to see Langella, Rourke or Penn walk away with this one. But Penn’s performance moved me the most.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant – Milk
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: David Fincher
BFCA, Golden Globes, BAFTA (not to mention a half-dozen other critics circles) and the super-predictive DGA have spoken.
This is tough for me. I love, love, love me some Boyle. I’ve seen every one of his films except for The Beach, and almost all in the theater. Were he to win I would not shed a tear except in joy. That having been said, I have no less loyalty to Fincher, and even if I did, he did an outstanding job with Button. He not only kept to his usual standard (operatic, textured cinema) but expanded his palette as a director, evoking a sense of wonder, and in a film about death at that. Button is an achievement on many levels, but primarily it is an achievement of directing.
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
BFCA, Golden Globe, BAFTA, PGA. 8 more critics circles. There’s little doubt.
You can see here why I’m such a Button booster. But really, I’d love to see both Button and Slumdog win (you can see in that same place why I’m such a Slumdog booster). To me they represent the best of old and new Hollywood. Button is filmmaking in the classic sense. The reason we get into the movie-making business in the first place. To tell a beautiful story in a grand way. But Slumdog is how we get into filmmaking, by telling a beautiful story in an original, guerrilla way in an overlooked setting (and I have little doubt future generations will call this classic filmmaking). Both films evoke a sense of magic, but they achieve it with very different methods and very different agendas. But both achieve it marvelously.
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