More than ever, I’m finding that my predictions line up with the guild nominations for the respective categories.  Is this year’s crop that predictable?  Or am I just going to be very, very wrong?

Also, I decided this year to take a crack at Best Cinematography, just because the line up looks interesting.  Of course, I just ended up going with the ASC nods…

Best Cinematography

Avatar – Mauro Fiore

Kind of weird when you think how much of this was digital, but that’s still cinematography, right?

The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd

Worth it for that one extreme close-up of the post-bomb sand alone.

Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson

People don’t usually associate Tarantino with cinematography, but those long held shots only work if the composition is flawless.

Nine – Dion Beebe

About the highest profile nod I expect this to get, but I could be wrong.

The White Ribbon – Christian Berger

A frontrunner?

Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

This is not the reason Anna Kendrick will have trouble winning.

Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air

Filling in the ingenue slot, but her role is so much more than that.

Diane Kruger – Inglourious Basterds

This could just as easily be Penelope Cruz, but I doubt Nine will get that much love.

Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

The actual reason Anna Kendrick will have trouble winning.

Samantha Morton – The Messenger

Kind of a long shot, but the Academy loves her, and Woody Harrelson’s more likely Supporting nod for means the film is on their radar.

Sorely Overlooked: Mariah Carey in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, Rosamund Pike in An Education

Best Supporting Actor

Peter Capaldi – In the Loop

Wishful thinking on my part, but stranger things have happened.

Matt Damon – Invictus

Arguably a lead performance, but it’s not like his chances would be any better in that category.

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Would be his second nod.  A lot of people forget about Larry Flynt.

Christopher Plummer – The Last Station

Would be his first after 52 years in the business.

Cristoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Calling him “the one to beat” would give you the false impression he was beatable.

Sorely Overlooked: David Rasche in In the Loop

Best Adapted Screenplay

An Education – Nick Hornby

Stupid WGA rules won’t lock Nick Hornby out of this nod.

Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach

First animated nod in this category in a while, right?  Or ever?  Anyone?

In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche

Again, wishful thinking, but at least a few critics circles remembered it for this category.

Julie & Julia – Nora Ephron

The most obviously based-on-a-book title on the Academy’s radar (besides Precious, which for some reason isn’t getting any screenplay heat).  Plus, has the cache of being based on two.

Up in the Air – Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner

One of the many things that people love about this movie.

Sorely Overlooked: Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire – Geoffrey Fletcher

Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber

The little-indie-comedy-that-surprised-us-all nod of the pack.

Avatar – James Cameron

This spot belongs to Up, but as Avatar is the prohibitive favorite for Best Picture, the Academy has to at least pretend it had one of the year’s best screenplays.

The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal

May be this flick’s best shot at a win.

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino

Stupid WGA rules won’t lock Tarantino out of this category, which he’s already won once before.  (Okay, this rule might not be that stupid since he’s not actually a member and it’s their prerogative to award those who actually belong to their organization.  Still, the award might have a more definitive status if it expanded its scope, plus, it’s not a bad recruiting tool to be given an award from an organization that likes what you do.  But I digress.)

A Serious Man – Ethan & Joel Coen

Probably deserves a lot more than this, but it is a good screenplay.

Sorely Overlooked: Adventureland – Greg Mottola

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

And she will probably win.  Seriously.

Helen Mirren – The Last Station

“Dear Dame Mirren (I’m assuming you’re a Dame, since you’re British and all), I did not see or hear of nor am I sure what the name of your movie is, but I heard you were good in it, so I am going to nominate you for Best Actress since it just feels like the right thing to do.  Yours truly, The Academy.”

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Until recently, the prohibitive favorite (or at least a spoiler for Streep).  Then Bullock happened.

Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Strangely, overshadowed by Mo’Nique even though her performance is a classic Best Actress performance.

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

If this happens, she will have been nominated five times in the past 10 years!

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

And he will win.  With a standing ovation.

George Clooney – Up in the Air

He would have won, but then Bridges happened.

Colin Firth – A Single Man

Was never going to win, but it’s nice to know the Academy was paying attention.

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Would be number five.

Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker

If it happens, which is as likely as not, would be a hell of a get for a guy most people hadn’t heard of (and still haven’t).

Sorely Overlooked: Sam Rockwell in Moon, Sharlto Copley in District 9

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

I sooooo want her to win.  Mostly so’s I can see the look on her ex’s face.

James Cameron – Avatar

I sooooo don’t want to see the look on his face if he wins.  Nor do I want to hear him speak Na’vi again.

Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Would be the first time an African American has been nominated for Best Director ever.  Yup.  We got one elected President first.

Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

His second nod for only his third film.  Damn.

Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Not a member of the DGA, either, but he still got nominated for their award.  Just saying.

Sorely Overlooked: Pete Docter & Bob Peterson for Up

Best Picture

Avatar

Sigh.

(500) Days of Summer

Think of this as the Little Miss Sunshine slot.

An Education

There’s ten nominees.  Just having a high profile acting nod is suddenly enough to make the cut (not that this doesn’t deserve it).

The Hurt Locker

I remember when I thought even having ten nominees wouldn’t be enough to get this on the Academy’s radar.  Glad to be (fingers crossed) wrong.

Inglourious Basterds

This would give it almost every nod Pulp Fiction got back in the day.

Invictus

Clint Eastwood make any movies this year?  Yeah?  Okay, throw it in.

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

That many high profile performances and our first black director?  No way this doesn’t make it in.  Unless it’s The Color Purple.

Star Trek

Yay!  We’re the Academy!  We’re populist!

Up

With ten nominees, we’re probably looking at a reserved Pixar spot for the foreseeable future.

Up in the Air

I want to think of this as a frontrunner, but I know I shouldn’t.

Sorely Overooked: Sherlock Holmes. There, I said it.