Yeah. That’s pretty awful. And that’s why I said it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – Nine
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal – Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Will Win: Mo’Nique
Should Win: Mo’Nique
There is no question in any award-giving body’s mind as to who will win this, so let’s concentrate on how to properly spell her name. It’s Mo’Nique, with a capital “N,” as in the opposite of Less’Nique.
I have never actually seen a person win an Academy award in the last five minutes of a film before Mo’Nique did it in Precious. It’s a great film already, but her moment makes it unforgettable.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon – Invictus
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Cristoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Christoph Waltz
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Again, no question. So let’s be clear that it’s Christoph withou the “er” because someone bet him he couldn’t spell his name without an “e,” and it’s “Waltz” just like his brother, Blue Danube.
Just watch the first 20 minutes, then tell me he doesn’t deserve this.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
There was a time when this was a going to be a fight between Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep. Then Sandra Bullock started winning things. Marginal things like BFCA (tying with Streep), then marginal-but-high-profile things like the Golden Globe (where she didn’t really have to go up against Streep), then relatively important things like the SAG award (where she flat out beat Streep). So while Streep may still have a shot, the smart money’s on Bullock.
I miss the days when Mulligan had a chance. Her performance in An Education is relevatory, and as good as everyone is in that film (where are the nods for Peter Sarsgaard, Alfred Molina, Olivia Williams, and Rosamund Pike, who takes on the most thankless role of all?) it’s the kind of movie that only works if the lead is amazing, and she is.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: Jeff Bridges
This, too, used to be a very different race. Time was when George Clooney, Colin Firth, and Jeff Bridges all had a fair shot at the crown, with Clooney in the lead. But several awards shows and a SAG standing ovation later the clear front-runner is Bridges, as much for a body of work as an outstanding performance.
And it is an outstanding performance. Bridges creates a complete character. No less so than The Dude, which should have been his first Oscar.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow
I don’t think the Academy will blame Bigelow here for the sins of her producer. In fact, voters looking to reward Locker are more likely to do it here than anywhere else. It’s a way to acknowledge the film in a major way without giving it the farm. Plus, she’s already accumulated a ton of awards culminating in a something like 90 percent predictive DGA win.
Hurt Locker and Avatar are, more than the other three nominees, “director’s films.” I say that because I see Up in the Air and Basterds as writer/director films, which is to say the success of the film is as much about the writing as the direction, and Precious as a performance/director film, in that the performances are featured as much as the directorial style.
So looking at films that rely primarily on directorial vision for impact, Locker creates a more compelling experience for me than Avatar. And while you can see elements of that vision in Bigelow’s previous work (look at the visual rendering of the adrenaline junkie mentality in the camerawork of Point Break) it has never been more coherent.
Put another way, she directed the shit out of that film.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Up in the Air
Let me be clear. The whole Avatar/Hurt Locker race is closer than you think. And don’t think that any amount of ill advised e-mails is going to change that. David Poland has some choice words about that line of thinking that are worth digesting. If Hurt Locker loses a win this big, it’s because it was never going to win it.
The case for Hurt Locker is compelling. A PGA win when the smart money was on Avatar. A DGA win when the smart money was on Cameron. The (admittedly thin) lead in a pool of experts and a pool of amateurs. The seriousness of a real war versus the fantasy of a fake one. And the Academy likes Serious.
But here’s the thing. They also like money.
Poland points out in that article I just mentioned that it’s very hard to make a small amount of money and still win Best Picture.
“In the last 30 years, the lowest domestic theatrical gross for a Best Picture winner was about 3x the domestic gross of The Hurt Locker… $44 million for The Last Emperor.”
By the same token, granted you qualify as “Oscar material,” financial success really doesn’t hurt. Until recently (given that Avatar is now on top), the top two highest grossing films of all time internationally, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, were both Best Picture winners.
The technology angle also plays a role. This is about the future. There is no better-looking (if completely misunderstood) argument for the viability of 3D than Avatar. And don’t underestimate the fact that two of the ten nominees are 3D. A win for Avatar is a win for 3D is a win for the future of filmmaking.
Granted, this argument assumes that the Academy consists of marketers, which it doesn’t. Many of them are actors, some of whom are threatened by our new digital overlords. And they could be the best friends an actor-centered film like The Hurt Locker ever had.
The Academy voters are also not, necessarily, a bunch of people trying to resurrect the relevance of the event in the minds of the public by celebrating the movies the public embraces. Those would be the people actually putting on the Oscars and trying to sell it to sponsors. And, um, adding five Best Picture nominees. But I think those thoughts could plausibly influence a vote or two.
For all this back and forth, though, I keep coming back to the money. Put simply, I find it too hard to believe that the Academy will ignore the highest grossing film of all time in the middle of a recession.
This could very realistically go the other way, and I’d be happy to see it, but my gut tells me Locker gets Director, Avatar gets The Prize.
All of that having been said, I liked Up in the Air better than both of ‘em. Inglourious Basterds and Up, too.
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