I have grossly overestimated the appeal of both magic and Iwo Jima. Prestige won the weekend with $14.8mil, less than half what I predicted, and Flags of Our Fathers will not be the next Saving Private Ryan, and will, in fact, make less than a third of what I had in mind. The real surprise, though, is The Departed, hanging on to the number two spot in its third frame. Go Scorsese.
Prestige, by the way, is a great, if darker than expected, film.
10/27
Wide
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jigsaw gives it all up to compete in a pie-making contest. Just kidding, he tortures a bunch of fuckers, like usual.
WILL IT SUCK?
Interesting pedigree here. James Wan, director and co-writer of the original Saw is back as a co-writer with Darren Lynn Bousman, director of the sequel, back at the helm. The consistent thread here is co-writer Leigh Wannell, who worked on all three. All of this means that this one will probably be no better or worse than the other two.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Borat maybe poses a threat the following week, but, let’s be honest, there’s a reason they greenlit a sequel during Saw II‘s opening weekend. $105mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but Tobin Bell is one helluva character actor.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like a South African In the Name of the Father, if Daniel Day Lewis had decided to join the IRA after getting out of prison.
WILL IT SUCK?
After a kick-ass 2002 (Rabbit Proof Fence and The Quiet American), Philip Noyce disappeared off the radar. Now he’s back with Tim Robbins and Derek Luke in a story that smacks of more of his now trademark political tension. Early buzz is mixed, possibly the result of mixing those factors with the writer of Captain Corelli’s Mandolin.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m not sure how many people will be turned off by the trailer, which is vaguely terrorist-recruit-y, and the title, which makes it sound like a sports film, but the bigger concern is that not very many people know about this to begin with. $19mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Overdue nods for Luke and Noyce are a possibility, if reviews improve. Seriously, how did Luke get overlooked for Friday Night Lights?
Limited
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A group of people affect each other in pretty radical ways without ever meeting.
WILL IT SUCK?
Nope. Read my early reactions here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The indie race starts to heat up here. You’ve got the second frame of Running, the first frame of President and, the following week, the best-buzzed Almodovar film in years. But this film has something none of those other indies has. Brad Fucking Pitt. Still, it’ll be tight. $22mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best Director, Best Screenplay (maybe Best Picture), a possible nod for Brad and I’d keep my eye on Adriana Barraza, who plays a nanny who goes through an unpleasant ordeal (unlike everyone else in the film who has, you know, a blast).
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Fake doc about the assassination of George W. Bush. Yeah, I’m sure that won’t be controversial at all.
WILL IT SUCK?
Giddy as the prospect might make some, the early buzz isn’t so great.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without a critical concensus, it’s going to be hard justifying this as anything but catharsis, which will be good for a few bucks, but won’t make for a long run. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Since this was originally a British TV-movie, I’m not sure it’s eligible, but even if it were, it’s probably a little too hot for the Academy.
Next Week: Kazakhstan closes its eyes and pretends it’s somewhere else.
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