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Is it possible for every film in the race to be a come-from-behind success? Babel wasn’t really on the radar but suddenly had a jillion Golden Globe nods and showed up in almost every Guild’s short list. Little Miss Sunshine wowed crowds at Sundance but that’s almost a guarantee of not getting anything other than an Independent Spirit Award. And now the Producer’s Guild (not the best Best Picture prognosticators mind you) has given it the gold.

So, this year, I’ve found it very hard to predict what will or won’t tickle the Academy’s fancy. In fact, three of my categories match the respective guild nod for nod (though that usually only happens once per year). And with that confidence-inspiring build-up, here we go…

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barazza - Babel

The first of two likely Babel nods in this category, which means neither will win.

Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal

Second only to Hudson in critics circle wins.

Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine

Too cute to lose. (The nod, I mean. Jennifer Hudson will wipe the floor with her come Oscar night.)

Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls

The one to beat.

Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Could be replaced by Catherine O’Hara, but I doubt it.

Sorely overlooked: Shareeka Epps in Half Nelson. Nothing against Breslin, but hers is the standout child performance of the year.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine

Likely to win the Oscar he deserved for Glengarry Glen Ross.

Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed

I think the temptation to nominate him in two categories will be too great.

Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children

The I-didn’t-see-it-but-I-hear-it’s-good nod of the year.

Jack Nicholson - The Departed

It’s Jack. He could get a nod for an infomercial.

Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls

It’ll be a knock-down drag-out between him and Arkin for the win.

Sorely Overlooked: Let’s see. Sergi Lopez in Pan’s Labyrinth, Steve Carell in Little Miss Sunshine, Michael Sheen in The Queen. Oh, and the whole cast of Letters From Iwo Jima.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Children of Men - David Arata, Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Fergus, Hawk Ostby & Timothy J. Sexton

The late bloomer.

The Departed - William Monahan

Adapted from a kick-ass Hong Kong action flick. A rare instance where I prefer the American version.

The Devil Wears Prada - Aline Brosh McKenna

The only novel here you’ve actually heard of.

Little Children - Todd Field & Tom Perrotta

Everyone else (GG, BFCA, WGA) is doing it.

Thank You for Smoking - Jason Reitman

My personal favorite.

Sorely overlooked: Iris Yamashita, Letters From Iwo Jima

Best Original Screenplay

Babel - Guillermo Arriaga

Surprisingly, it would be his first.

Little Miss Sunshine - Michael Arndt

The one to beat.

Pan’s Labyrinth - Guillermo del Toro

Could just as easily be Stranger Than Fiction, but I like the idea of two guys named Guillermo getting the nod.

The Queen - Peter Morgan

Could steal Arndt’s Sunshine.

United 93 - Paul Greengrass

Probably the only nod this will get.

Sorely overlooked: Nick Cave, The Proposition.

Best Actress

Penelope Cruz - Volver

Believe it or not, her first.

Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal

Fulfilled her requirement of being in a movie in order to get a nod.

Beyonce Knowles - Dreamgirls

Ooooh, shiny!

Helen Mirren - The Queen

This goes beyond “the one to beat.”

Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada

The American Judi Dench.

Sorely overlooked: Shauna Macdonald in The Descent. If Sigourney can get a nod for Aliens…

Best Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen - Borat: Cultural Learnings Of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation Of Kazakhstan

Wishful thinking.

Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond

Why this is “Best Actor” and The Departed is “Best Supporting Actor” is anyone’s guess.

Peter O’Toole - Venus

He told you not to give him a lifetime achievement yet.

Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

His second.

Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

The one to beat.

Sorely overlooked: Ray Winstone in The Proposition. I mean holy crap.

Best Director

Bill Condon - Dreamgirls

The unsung hero of Dreamgirls.

Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris - Little Miss Sunshine

Helmers of this year’s Crash.

Stephen Frears - The Queen

Hasn’t been nominated since 1991. And no, he got no nod for Dangerous Liaisons.

Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel

Helmer of this year’s other Crash.

Martin Scorsese - The Departed

For once I can say this and mean it: “Martin Scorsese is the one to beat.”

Sorely overlooked: There are so many. But let’s put Alfonso Cuarón out there as a “fer instance.”

Best Picture

Babel

The Golden Globe win happened after nominations were closed, but the seven GG nods, seven BFCA nods and five assorted Guild nods didn’t.

The Departed

First one to make it to the short list.

Dreamgirls

This year’s Chicago? Not really, but still a contender.

Little Miss Sunshine

The nod was a lock before the PGA win, but the PGA win actually makes it a player.

The Queen

Another early favorite (for the short list, not the win).

Sorely overlooked: Letters From Iwo Jima and United 93 looked like early favorites, too, and both deserve to be here. But if I had to pick one to throw in, it would be Children of Men.

See you Tuesday morning at 5:30 a.m. And if you don’t make coffee, I’ll be pissed.