Last year I gave what I felt was a fairly clear explanation of the math I’ll be using to quantify just how much you should care about each category in terms of its Oscar doppleganger. In the interest of not re-inventing the wheel, here it is again, slightly updated:

I’ve chosen to add a little math to the mix by coming up with an “Oscar Predictive Value” for each category (well, most of ‘em). This basically tells you how often in the past 50 years winners from a given category go on to win the corresponding Oscar. (So, if the Foreign Film category has an OPV of 29%, that means that 29% of the time, films that win in this category go on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film.)

Now, the OPV may seem low for some of the categories, but keep in mind that in 1951 the HFP decided to split up lead actor, actress, and best picture into comedy and drama in a concerted effort to make the math difficult. So now, for example, you have far more Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture than you do Oscar contenders for the same prize. To put the numbers in perspective, remember that all things being equal, any nominated film has a 20% chance of winning an Oscar. The OPV can sometimes tell you how much better the chances get if they win a Globe.

All clear? Then away we go…

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

“A LOVE THAT WILL NEVER GROW OLD” — BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Music by: Gustavo Santaolalla
Lyrics by: Bernie Taupin

“CHRISTMAS IN LOVE” — CHRISTMAS IN LOVE
Music by: Tony Renis
Lyrics by: Marva Jan Marrow

“THERE’S NOTHING LIKE A SHOW ON BROADWAY” — THE PRODUCERS
Music & Lyrics by: Mel Brooks

“TRAVELIN’ THRU” — TRANSAMERICA
Music & Lyrics by: Dolly Parton

“WUNDERKIND” — THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
Music & Lyrics by: Alanis Morissette

Will Win: “Travelin’ Thru”
Should Win: “Wunderkind”

First of all, has anyone even heard of the film Christmas in Love, much less the song “Christmas in Love?” I didn’t think so. Anyhoo, this tends to be a sacred cow win. Your Mick Jaggers, Bob Dylans, and Stings usually take this one home. That leaves Dolly Parton and Alanis Morisette, both on their second song nod, and Dolly’s got seniority.

I haven’t heard any of these songs. Theoretically I’ve heard “Wunderkind,” since I saw Chronicles, but if I did, I don’t remember it. Still, I give it to Alanis on principle.

Really, though, we all know what should win.

OPV: 62%. This is a very predictive category, though you wouldn’t know it last year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

ALEXANDRE DESPLAT
SYRIANA

HARRY GREGSON-WILLIAMS
THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE

JAMES NEWTON HOWARD
KING KONG

GUSTAVO SANTAOLALLA
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

JOHN WILLIAMS
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

Will Win: John Williams
Should Win: Gustavo Santaolalla

This is a very tough category to pick, because the winner usually seems pretty random. Howard Shore won for the second time in a row last year, and that almost never happens. Anyway, they seem to intersperse heavy hitters like Williams pretty regularly, so the safest bet is with him. He’s been nominated a whopping 21 times and won a seventh of those, the last time in 1983 for E.T. so he’s, um, due?

I don’t really remember the music from any of these films, so I’m picking Gustavo cos’ he has the coolest name.

OPV: Can’t be calculated for reasons too boring to comprehend.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

WOODY ALLEN
MATCH POINT

GEORGE CLOONEY & GRANT HESLOV
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK

PAUL HAGGIS & BOBBY MORESCO
CRASH

TONY KUSHNER & ERIC ROTH
MUNICH

LARRY McMURTRY & DIANA OSSANA
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Munich

Paul Haggis didn’t even get nominated by the HFP for his Oscar-nodded Million Dollar Baby screenplay. But revenge will be sweet when he grabs this his first time out. Though they love Woody (to the tune of 5 screenplay nods) he’s only won once which tells me they like nominating him more than awarding him.

Good Night is probably the closest competition nominated, but with 7 critics circle awards (including a BFCA) to Good Night’s 3, the prevailing wind is blowing in Haggis’ favor. Brokeback might steal it on momentum alone, but so far that momentum has only garnered 4 cc’s. Crash’s real screenplay nemesis, The Squid and the Whale, wasn’t even nominated.

Don’t get me wrong. Crash is a great screenplay. It’s a challenge to tie that many stories together and give them any sense of theme without hitting the audience over the head (though that’s exactly what many critics complained about). And in a sense, Munich has a similar challenge in that it has to tell a story with a point of view that is a commentary on a modern socio-political ill. But Munich’s challenge is greater in my mind because (a) the subject matter is more sensitive (going by the grim metric of body count) and (b) you have to keep a smaller number of characters more interesting for a longer period of time.

Good Night, and Good Luck accomplishes similar goals efficiently, and maybe the only reason I don’t give it the should is because I know Grant and George didn’t have to write those awesome monologues themselves.

OPV: 70%. This is the most predictive category, mostly because the winner actually has ten chances to win an Oscar (what with the adapted/original split).

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

WOODY ALLEN
MATCH POINT

GEORGE CLOONEY
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK

PETER JACKSON
KING KONG

ANG LEE
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

FERNANDO MEIRELLES
THE CONSTANT GARDENER

STEVEN SPIELBERG
MUNICH

Will Win: Ang Lee
Should Win: Fernando Meirelles

What a tough category. Unfortunately for the other guys, the critics circles don’t see it that way. 12 of them gave it to Lee, including the BFCA. The next closest is Cronenberg at 3, and he wasn’t even nominated here. But it was such a good year for directors that he should have been.

As I’ve said before, Munich is Spielberg’s Godfather, and how do you deny a director the prize for that? But when I think of pure direction, Meirelles stands out, even in this field. His bold use of color, angle, exposure, and shutter speed to create a world so dry and sharp it looks like it will make the screen crumble and/or shatter is mesmerizing. And his intimate, improvisational way with actors meshes with that style to create an Altman on X.

OPV: 54%. More than half the time the winners here go all the way. This year will be no exception.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

GEORGE CLOONEY
SYRIANA

MATT DILLON
CRASH

WILL FERRELL
THE PRODUCERS

PAUL GIAMATTI
CINDERELLA MAN

BOB HOSKINS
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS

Will Win: Matt Dillon
Should Win: George Clooney

The smart money is on Paul Giamatti. He’s got the lion’s share of cc awards, including a BFCA. However, if you go with the theory that his awards are predicated upon guilt over his snub by the Academy last year for Sideways, that theory falls apart here. He won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy for Sideways. The HFP has nothing to feel guilty about. That makes me think about the next person down on the list, cc-wise, Matt Dillon.

As far as who should win, I’m torn between Dillon and Clooney. Both are great at portraying menace and creating nuanced characters. Clooney has the literal added weight of schlubbiness and normalcy, which is very hard for stars to pull off. Dillon has that vulnerability, too, so maybe I’m just bitter that Terrence Howard didn’t get a nod as well.

OPV: 48%. Almost half the time the winner here goes on to take the gold. However, I think Giamatti’s chances are better with the Academy than the HFP, at least this year.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

SCARLETT JOHANSSON
MATCH POINT

SHIRLEY MacLAINE
IN HER SHOES

FRANCES McDORMAND
NORTH COUNTRY

RACHEL WEISZ
THE CONSTANT GARDENER

MICHELLE WILLIAMS
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

Will Win: Michelle Williams
Should Win: Rachel Weisz

Inexplicably, the two frontrunners in this category for every other award handed out this year, Catherine Keener and Amy Adams, are missing here. That leaves us with Michelle Williams and Rachel Weisz, who’ve racked up a few supporting wins, but Michelle has the advantage of being in the more buzzed-about flick, and a BFCA win (a tie with Adams, no less) to boot.

None of these performances (with the exception of McDormand’s, whose performance I have yet to see) really stand out for me. Weisz’s characterization holds up well under the scrutiny of Meirelles’ intrusive lens, and that’s as good an accomplishment as any in this field.

OPV: 36%. Not very predictive, and with choices like these, you can understand why.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

JOYEUX NOEL (MERRY CHRISTMAS) (FRANCE)

KUNG FU HUSTLE (CHINA)

PARADISE NOW (PALESTINE)

THE PROMISE (MASTER OF THE CRIMSON ARMOR) (CHINA)

TSOTSI (SOUTH AFRICA)

Will Win: Kung Fu Hustle
Should Win: Kung Fu Hustle

It’s not just the BFCA that loves this film. 6 other cc’s have joined in. Paradise Now could act as a spoiler, but I think this will pull through.

I haven’t actually seen any of the other films on this list, but I’ll be hard pressed to find another foreign film I’ve seen this year that tops Hustle. Except maybe Oldboy.

OPV: Can’t be calculated because {insert complicated, boring explanation here}.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE -MUSICAL OR COMEDY

PIERCE BROSNAN
THE MATADOR

JEFF DANIELS
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE

JOHNNY DEPP
CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY

NATHAN LANE
THE PRODUCERS

CILLIAN MURPHY
BREAKFAST ON PLUTO

JOAQUIN PHOENIX
WALK THE LINE

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Joaquin is the odds on favorite (1/2) in a category where no other actor has gotten a single win from any critics circle this season. All the cc’s have gone to “dramatic” performances. I like to think that Depp might be a spoiler, simply because he’s 0 for 4 so far in this category (5 if you count drama), but he’s 8/1, and I can’t really argue with that.

Joaquin’s performance here is outstanding. Much as Foxx inhabited Ray, he inhabits Cash and shows even more facets. Give it to him for the audition scene alone.

OPV: 12%. This is the least predictive category, and when you think of how much the Academy loves it some drama, you can understand why.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

JUDI DENCH
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS

KEIRA KNIGHTLEY

PRIDE & PREJUDICE

LAURA LINNEY
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE

SARAH JESSICA PARKER
THE FAMILY STONE

REESE WITHERSPOON
WALK THE LINE

Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon

2/5 odds favor Reese with Knightley next in line. Reese has won 9 cc’s so far, including the BFCA. I can see the HFP dubbing Reese, now on her third nom, the next Renee Zellwegger, who’s won twice already in this category. If you squint really hard, they kind of look the same.

As you can probably guess, I kind of like Walk the Line, and I think the performances (along with Mangold’s vision) make the film. Like Joaquin, she does her own singing and completely inhabits the role, but it’s the darkness she’s able to find in Carter that makes her attraction to Cash’s darkness (and subsequent ability to see beyond it) believable.

OPV: 20%. Again, Academy not loving the musicals or comedies.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS

PRIDE & PREJUDICE

THE PRODUCERS

THE SQUID AND THE WHALE

WALK THE LINE

Will Win: Walk the Line
Should Win: Walk the Line

Our tour of all things Cash ends here. Walk the Line is the odds-on favorite at 1/2, and why not? It’s more popular and far more successful than its closest competition, The Squid and the Whale, which essentially has identical nods (actor, actress, film – Mangold, Baumbach, and the screenwriters are ignored for some reason).

And, of course, I love it. But it’s not as easy as all that. I love The Squid and the Whale, too. It just barely missed my top ten list. But Walk the Line actually made my top ten list. On the other hand, had Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang been nominated here as at the BFCA’s, I’d forget Walk the Line like a political colleague under indictment.

OPV: Wanna guess? 18%.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

RUSSELL CROWE
CINDERELLA MAN

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN
CAPOTE

TERRENCE HOWARD
HUSTLE & FLOW

HEATH LEDGER
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

DAVID STRATHAIRN
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Sometimes a winner is so obvious, it’s as plain as the sunglasses on Jamie Foxx’s face. This sitcom is called Everybody Loves Hoffman. Except…the five cc’s who gave it to Ledger. There are two reasons to consider him a spoiler. One, the momentum for Brokeback is considerable. Two, who would have guessed that the HFP would go for Leonardo DiCaprio last year, or Peter Fonda for Ulee’s Gold in ‘97? They are not always predictable here. I’d still go with Hoffman (1/2 odds) if I were you, though.

Ledger gives a career-best performance in Brokeback. It’s unforgettable. But so is Hoffman, and he pretty much has to carry the whole film (with admirable help from Keener and Clifton Collins, Jr., sadly missing from this year’s awards season). By the way, it’s nice to see Terrence Howard get some props, even if he is the longest shot with 40/1 odds.

OPV: 62%. You more than triple your chances at winning an Oscar by winning this award.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

MARIA BELLO
A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

FELICITY HUFFMAN
TRANSAMERICA

GWYNETH PALTROW
PROOF

CHARLIZE THERON
NORTH COUNTRY

ZIYI ZHANG
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

Will Win: Felicity Huffman
Should Win: Maria Bello

If the nominations go the way I expect, Felicity Huffman is basically who would win the Best Actress Oscar if Reese Witherspoon weren’t nominated, and in this category we have that scenario. Her 5 cc wins drown out everyone else, not to mention the fact that physical transformation plays just as well here as at The Big Show (Hilary Swank in Boys Don’t Cry, Charlize Theron in Monster).

I’ll be honest. I’ve only seen Maria Bello’s performance out of all these, but it’s strong enough for me to recommend it with the others sight unseen. That and there’s no way I’m going to go see Memoirs of a Geisha.

OPV: 48%. You could do worse than to win this award. But in Huffman’s case, I don’t think it’ll help.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

THE CONSTANT GARDENER

GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK

A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

MATCH POINT

Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: The Constant Gardener

Brokeback has by far the most GG nods, the most cc wins, and the momentum of a runaway herd of stampeding gay cattle. Odds are 1/2. I wouldn’t count Good Night, and Good Luck (5/2) completely out, however. It’s about the press, and if there’s one thing the press loves, it’s the press. However, if you watch carefully, it’s extremely critical of today’s press and not all that flattering to the entertainment press in particular, so that might sink it.

Though I loved Brokeback Mountain, I liked The Constant Gardener even more. (I loved Munich more than that, but that’s not an option here.) Brokeback does tragic romance and does it well. Gardener does that and political intrigue and it has Bill Nighy, so how can you compete with that?

OPV: 54%. This is something you wanna win.

By the way, did I mention that I’m horrible at predicting the Globes? Last year I batted .385. I probably should have said something earlier. So sorry.