Called the B.O. for just about every wide release this past weekend (multiply their take by three to get a rough estimate of their final take, which is what I predicted). Overshot W. by a bit, but that’s about all. Hopefully this makes up for my terrible, terrible Chihuahua misstep.
10/23
Wide
HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR YEAR
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Prequel to Community College Musical.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director Kenny Ortega helmed Newsies back in ’92 which, in my mind, makes him the perfect choice to have directed the first two High School Musicals. He directed this one, too, with the same writer so expect more of the same. That having been said, the trailer actually looks pretty good.
And yes, a High School Musical 4 has been announced.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the first time a TV movie title has had a big screen sequel so, by definition, the audience is built-in (and large, or why make the leap). Let’s say only the people who watched the premiere of HSM 2 buy tix. That’s $172mil (assuming an average ticket price of $10).
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy, of late, likes their musicals dark.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Jigsaw mantle gets passed on.
WILL IT SUCK?
This series has been around so long that people are being promoted from production designer to director. Written by the guys who wrote the last Saw movie and, if you haven’t noticed, those things have been getting diminishing critical returns, even from fans.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Why is this not being released on Halloween which is, you know, on a Friday? Do they think the demo will be trick-or-treating? No, instead let’s open against one of the few surefire blockbusters of the fall. Especially since profits have been falling steadily since Saw II. $48mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Punctuality? These things really do come out every October like clockwork.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ed Norton ends up investigating his brother Colin Farrell’s precinct as part of a murder investigation.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is kind of confirming what I suspected, that this is a by-the-numbers police corruption flick. Doesn’t seem like co-screenwriter Joe Carnahan’s contribution has added anything juicier or Miracle director Gavin O’Connor (who also co-wrote the screenplay) has added anything more original.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given the lackluster performance of Righteous Kill, which had much bigger stars, I’m not optimistic. $17mil. (By the way, exactly how many trailers can you have where titles appear above an extreme close-up of a badge?)
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I look forward to the day when Norton does something Oscar-worthy again, but this probably ain’t it.
Limited
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Angelina Jolie gets locked up in a mental institution for claiming that the boy the police brought to her in a missing persons case was not actually her son.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. You’d expect more since not only have you got Clint (Eastwood, not Howard, though that would be cool, too) at the helm, but you’ve got John Malkovich in a leading role, with support from Colm Feore, Amy Ryan and that dude from Burn Notice (Jeffrey Donovan, not Bruce Campbell, though that would be hellacool). Strangely enough, the screenplay comes from Babylon 5 creator J. Michael Straczynski.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Clint plus stars equals indie gold. Hell, they could have probably released this shit wide. $30mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
While critical response has been more lukewarm than you usually get for Oscar fare, I can see the Academy’s love for Eastwood (depending upon the strength of field) turning into multiple nods.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
U2 records a really weird album with Brian Eno. Oh, you mean the movie. Patrick Wilson starts getting all these creepy abilities after surviving a plane crash.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the guy who wrote that 10.5 earthquake TV movie…you know what? I’m just going to stop right there.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You’ve got a paranormal thriller with Anne Hathaway, Patrick Wilson, Andre Brauer and David Morse and you’re going to release it limited near the end of October? Yeah, that’s a body dump. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nope.
SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Charlie Kaufman writes and, for the first time, directs this straightforward story in which nothing unusual happens. Nah, just kidding. It’s pretty fucked up.
WILL IT SUCK?
If you “get” the title, this movie is probably for you. Early buzz is good, but terms like “surreal post-modern metanarrative” are thrown around freely in reviews, so consider yourself warned. If you need more reason to get psyched, look at this cast: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Samantha Morton, Michelle Williams, Catherine Keener, Emily Watson, Dianne Wiest, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hope Davis and that dude who played the bad guy in Manhunter.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Unless Kaufman has a Jim Carrey or a Nic Cage in the lead, it’s hard for his scripts to make bank. $17mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A screenplay (or maybe even directing) nod isn’t out of the question, and with all the makeup changes maybe Hoffman could get a nod, and there’s no lack of Supporting Actress roles, but overall the reception hasn’t been on the level of say, the love for Eternal Sunshine, so I wouldn’t put any money down.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vampire flick for those who think the bloodsuckers in Twilight are too old.
WILL IT SUCK?
Ha ha! That never gets old! Been leaving an army of devoted fans in its film festival wake, racking up awards including a big win at Tribeca. In reviews, the term “classic” comes up a lot. It’s a Swedish import so, of course, there’s going to be an American remake (by Cloverfield helmer Matt Reeves) so probably best to check this one out first.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
These festival horror darlings almost never do well theatrically. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ditto, minus the “almost.”
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A collection of animated horror shorts by leading graphic artists (none of whom I’ve ever heard of, but that’s not saying much).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Cool concept. Even the less scary parts are supposed to have amazing animation.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the mainstream audience (or even a lot of the indie audience) hasn’t heard of Blutch, Charles Burns, Marie Caillou, Lorenzo Mattoti, Pierre Di Sciullo or Richard McGuire, either. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It would be pretty cool to see a horror film sneak in by getting an animated nod. I think it’s unlikely, though.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
French film in which two sisters are reunited after 15 years.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Kristin Scott Thomas is supposed to be awesome. I didn’t even know she spoke French.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There are some high profile indies this week, but this is not one of them. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The way they’re talking about Thomas, you’d think so, but the language thing is going to be a dealbreaker.
Next Week: Zack and Miri make Kevin Smith’s best-received film in years.
Nice, finally found the article, looked for this all over the site
I keep listening to the news speak about getting free online grant applications so I have been looking around for the best site to get one.