When all is said and done, The Blind Side might make more money than The Princess and the Frog. Didn’t see that coming.
12/18
Wide
DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS?
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Estranged couple (Hugh Grant, Sarah Jessica Parker) witness a murder and are forced to relocate to Wyoming, cos’ they’re from New York and the FBI thought it would be funnier that way.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer/director of Two Weeks Notice and Music and Lyrics. I’ve actually heard some good things about Music and Lyrics. But he also wrote The Out of Towners remake, Forces of Nature and Miss Congeniality. Now, I’ve heard good things about Miss Congeniality, but he also wrote Miss Congeniality 2. It’s not looking good is what I’m saying.
Nice to see Elisabeth Moss get some exposure, tho.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On the one hand, this is smart counterprogramming to Avatar. On the other hand, fucking Avatar. $51mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I’m convinced Grant has an Oscar-worthy performance in him somewhere.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dances With Aliens
WILL IT SUCK?
There are two James Camerons. There’s the one that made Terminator and Aliens. Vicious little bites of groundbreaking sci-fi that make your heart race. Then there’s the one that made The Abyss and Titanic. Big, expensive, and weepy. You can generally track these by whether or not the military are good guys or bad guys. I’m thinking this is going to be more like The Abyss than anything else he’s done. You’ll be impressed visually, and some scenes will make your heart race, but you’ll be left with a distinctly cheesy taste in your mouth.
Early buzz is extremely good but, tellingly, praises look over story.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will it be a high grosser? Absolutely. I’ll be shocked if it makes anything less than $200 million, and expect it to vie for one of the top spots on the year-end top ten. Will it make a profit? A Fox chairman is saying that $500 million is a ridiculous budget estimate, but even if that ain’t the production budget, after prints and advertising you bet your ass it’s a half-bil spent so far. Will it make a dime over $500 million? Worldwide, probably, especially after home video. Will it make as much pure profit as, say, Paranormal Activity? After you factor in back-end deals and the like, it’ll be close. $300mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
We’ll know more once it finally screens for critics, but right now it’s on the medium list for Picture, Director. Certainly a tech nod favorite.
Limited
(12/16)
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Wes Anderson’s not the only one who can do hip indie stop-motion animation.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Won the Audience Award at Fantastic Fest 2009 and was the first stop-motion feature selected to Cannes. Looks funny.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Indie animated fare usually has a rough go of it. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
An Animated nod isn’t out of the question.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Film adaptation of the Tony Award-winning musical adaptation of Fellini’s 81⁄2, in which an Italian film director (Daniel Day Lewis) goes through a midlife crisis in an apocalyptic hellscape populated by nine robots who, wait, that last part might be off.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director Rob Marshall knows how to do a dark musical with a mostly female cast. He also has the visual flair to at least emulate Fellini’s dreamlike aesthetic (which is the interesting challenge of a film adaptation here – how do you avoid simply remaking 81⁄2 with musical numbers?). From screenwriters Michael Tolkin (The Player, Deep Cover, Changing Lanes) and the late Anthony Minghella (Cold Mountain, The English Patient, The Talented Mr. Ripley), so I’d say the odds are good.
Oh, did I mention the rest of the cast? Joining Day Lewis, we have Marion Cotillard, Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, Sophia Loren, Fergie, Kate Hudson (one of those names was not like the others) and a bunch of people who, like Loren, are actually Italian.
Early buzz is not so good, unless you count the slew of nods from the Critics’ Choice Awards, which seems to contradict the (as of this writing) 36% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
While the waters could get choppy leading up to and during a wide Christmas release, a cast like that makes good box office seem plausible. $75mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Likely. Marshall will shoot for another nod. With ten slots, Best Picture seems reasonable. It’s hard for Day Lews to not get nominated. The only problem is how to parse the wealth of female talent among a limited number of Actress and Supporting Actress slots, but expect at least a couple to get in.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
That would be Queen Victoria (Emily Blunt).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the guy who wrote Gosford Park. Paul Bettany, Miranda Richardson, Jim Broadbent, Thomas Kretschmann, Mark Strong, and Julian Glover co-star.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Going to be overshadowed by higher-profile indies. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Blunt is supposed to be outstanding, but I haven’t heard any Oscar buzz surrounding her yet. Consider her a dark horse.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Country Singer
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Jeff Bridges stars with Maggie Gyllenhaal, Robert Duvall, and Colin Farrell in supporting roles.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little late getting its buzz on, but Fox Searchlight is good at this. $13mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Will be for this year’s Oscar race what The Wrestler was for last year’s, with Jeff Bridges as Mickey Rourke.
Next Week: I bet Young Sherlock Holmes sounded like a bad idea, too.
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