Blog

My favorite quote about the “well, duh” big open for Saw IV, from Media By Numbers President Paul Dergarabedian:

“There’s just something inherently gruesome and compelling about these movies. I don’t know what that says about society in general, but it certainly works at the box office.”

11/2

Wide

AMERICAN GANGSTER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Denzel vs. Crowe

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is excellent to the tune of #120 in the IMDB Top 250, pre-release. You’d expect no less from Steve Zaillian writing, Ridley Scott directing and the leads I’ve already mentioned. And those of you who thought you saw Common in the trailer, you did.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Opening in fairly thick competition, but this will be hard to beat. $65mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Who won’t get a nod from this movie?

MARTIAN CHILD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kiddie K-Pax

WILL IT SUCK?
Variety describes it as “sententiously moralizing.” I’m not 100% sure what that means, but it doesn’t sound good. They like the leads, though: John Cusack and newcomer Bobby Coleman as the Martian tyke. From the director of Max, which was, well, okay.

Incidentally, in the book Cusack’s character is a gay, single father. In this version, he’s a hetero widower. Hmm…

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Feel good dramedy is gonna come more from Dan in Real Life’s second frame than this. $22mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Cusack has a better shot with his other hetero widower role.

BEE MOVIE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Antz with wings. And Jerry Seinfeld.

WILL IT SUCK?
All the hallmarks are there for a good Seinfeld ep, from the setting to the writers. Co-director did Prince of Egypt, which was, well, okay. Haven’t seen anything from it yet that actually looks funny, though. I get the feeling I’d rather watch Seinfeld do stand-up for 90 minutes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Basically has the demo to itself, with just the slightest leeching from Fred Claus the following week. $120mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Depending upon how reviews pan out, it’s easy game for Best Animated.

Limited

DARFUR NOW

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about six activists (including Don Cheadle) who try to make a difference in the Sudan.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. It’ll be interesting to see if people can get past their prejudices against celebrities touting causes to get into the film (Clooney’s up in here, too).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Leo can’t sell global warming, I don’t know if Cheadle can market Darfur. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Might be in contention with Devil Came on Horseback for doc.

JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about Clash icon Joe Strummer.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. From perennial musicphile Julien Temple.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nobody knows about this. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Music docs rarely make the short list.

Next week: It’s Tom Cruise! And he’s not crazy! Ish.