So, when I predicted $207 million for Alice’s final take, I thought I was being generous.  $200 million plus is, after all, an extraordinary haul for a non-blockbuster season release.  Turns out, I’ll probably end up $100 million shy of it’s final tally given that highest grossing non-sequel weekend and all.

Oh, and I suck at predicting Oscars.

3/12

Wide

GREEN ZONE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Iraq Identity

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s Paul Greengrass.  Come on.  When has he ever sucked?  And he’s reteaming with Matt Damon (and adding Jason Isaacs, Greg Kinnear, Amy Ryan and Brendan Gleeson).  Brian Helgeland (Mystic River, LA Confidential) writes. Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will have the honor of coming in second to week two of Alice.  $91mil.

REMEMBER ME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Robert Pattinson in a romantic drama in which he is not undead.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of a lot of Sopranos and Sex in the City and one feature (Hollywoodland, which was pretty good).  If Pattinson doesn’t do it for you, Emilie de Ravin, Pierce Brosnan, Chris Cooper, Martha Plimpton, and Lena Olin are also up in here. Early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With She’s Out of My League and Our Family Wedding drawing on an only slightly different demo this week and The Bounty Hunter drawing the romcom crowd the next, this could have trouble, even with R-Patz front and center.  $26mil.

SHE’S OUT OF MY LEAGUE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
If you don’t get it from the title, I don’t know what to tell ya.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writers of Sex Drive.  That is all.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sadly, I have a feeling this might be a bit of a breakout hit.  $40mil.

OUR FAMILY WEDDING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An African American family and a Latino family try to sort out their differences (well, the fathers mainly) as their son and daughter respectively get married.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer/director of The Wood and Brown Sugar, who also wrote the fantastic Talk to Me and co-wrote this…with the writer of King’s Ransom, and the trailer looks more like the latter.  Cast is a mixed bag.  Love Forest Whitaker and America Ferrara.  Carlos Mencia, not so much.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Weekend is too crowded, especially for romcoms.  $22mil.

Limited

MOTHER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Mother tries to clear her mentally challenged son’s name in a murder investigation.

WILL IT SUCK?
Maestro of the tonal mash-up Bong Joon-Ho (The Host) releases his best-received film since Memories of Murder.  Early buzz is amazing.  Hye-ja Kim, who plays the mother in question, is supposed to be incredible.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even The Host didn’t do all that well over here.  $1mil.

Next week: Just be thankful they didn’t actually reboot Midnight Run.