Michael Cera vs. Vampires
The reason Titanic made far more than the 3 x opening weekend formula box office is because it didn’t behave like most films. It didn’t drop off precipitously after its opening weekend. In fact, a lot of weekends, it made more than the previous weekend. Its $600 million take came from lots and lots of $10 – $30 million weekends.
While Avatar isn’t following that pattern, it is showing amazing legs. A little less than 2% drop its first weekend and less than 10% this past weekend. Which is why it’s already at $352 million domestic. So while it probably won’t have lots of $10 – $30 million weekends, it’s already had a few $60 – $80 million weekends. Is The Dark Knight spot in trouble?
1/8
Wide
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In the future, everyone (almost) will be a vampire. Only problem is, the blood supply is running out.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is really good. From the guys who brought you Ozzie zombie flick Undead a few years back.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Stands as good a chance as any vampire flick without the word Twilight in it. $46mil.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Teen (Michael Cera) works with his alter ego to win a girl.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is positive. From the director of Chuck & Buck and The Good Girl (this is his highest rated film on IMDb). Cera heads up a solid cast that includes Justin Long, Zach Galifianakis, Steve Buscemi, Ray Liotta, Fred Willard, Jean Smart, and M. Emmet Walsh.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
January’s not a bad time to find out if Cera can open a film. $21mil.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Amy Adams) on a road trip to Dublin to propose to her boyfriend starts to fall for the guy (Matthew Goode) giving her a ride.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Shopgirl, so he knows how to give good romcom, but from the writers of Made of Honor, so…
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
For a lack of competition, this might do well, but not, like, Along Came Polly well. $34mil.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Recently released convict (Tim Allen) adjusts to life on the outside, but not like Straight Time or Morgan Freeman. You know, wacky-like.
WILL IT SUCK?
The directorial debut of Tim Allen. Writers are also sitcom alums, having written for shows like According to Jim and 8 Simple Rules. Impressive cast: Sigourney Weaver, Julie Bowen, Kelsey Grammer, Ray Liotta, J.K. Simmons, and Jeanne Tripplehorn. Still, trailer looks like a bunch of sitcom pitches thrown together.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
From a company not known for wide releases on an already crowded weekend. $9mil.
Limited
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
You know those videos of babes in bikinis firing automatic weapons? Yeah, it’s like that.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, I gotta say their choice of director makes sense. Rick Jacobson has helmed numerous eps of Baywatch, Baywatch Nights, La Femme Nikita, Xena, Cleopatra 2525, and She Spies. This, however, is his first writing credit, which he shares with fellow newbie (and former Xena producer) Eric Gruendemann. Appearances from Lucy Lawless and Kevin Sorbo tell me the vein in which this is meant, and the fact that Zoe Bell makes an appearance is just cool (but makes perfect sense since she used to stunt double Lawless on Xena).
All that having been said, early buzz is not so hot.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
While a few Oscar hopefuls might be going wider this weekend, I don’t think that will affect the Bitch Slap demo. $4mil.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cynic (Matthew Broderick) falls for his sick roomate’s visiting sister.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very good. From writer/director Joshua Goldin, who co-wrote Darkman and the little-seen (apparently with good reason) 90’s Broderick vehicle Out on a Limb (which reunited Broderick with Ferris Bueller co-star Jeffrey Jones and co-starred a then unkown John C. Reilly – but I digress). Also features Philip Baker Hall.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’d play it up as a happy-go-lucky version of The Visitor. $500,000.
Next Week: Jackie Chan goes where Vin Diesel and The Rock have gone before.
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March 3rd, 2010 at 3:22 am
Great post, thanks a lot!