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Usually, I put much more effort into this, like last year. This year, I was at CES when I would normally be writing this. Regardless, I had to at least take a shot.

Cecil B. DeMille Award

I’m calling Warren Beatty for this one. I don’t know why. I’ve just got a good feeling.

Foreign Film

Will Win: Pan’s Labrynth
Should Win: Pan’s Labrynth

Letters could be a spoiler here, but there’s just more love out there for Pan’s. It is, in fact, an amazing film, even if every time I think about it I get extremely depressed.

Best Animated Film

Will Win: Cars
Should Win: Happy Feet

A dead heat between Cars and Happy, but Cars has a few more wins out there right now. I actually prefer Happy Feet, though Cars is not to be dismissed.

Original Song

Will Win: “Listen”
Should Win: “Listen”

The most popular eligible song from a popular musical is always tough to beat. Also, creating a song that even comes close to balancing out “And I Am Telling You…” from the first half is no mean feat.

Original Score

I find it extremely difficult to care about this category since I haven’t heard a score that stuck with me in about ten years, so I’m just going to say The Da Vinci Code because it would be really amusing to see one of the most critically reviled films of the year get some love.

Screenplay

Will Win: The Queen
Should Win: The Queen

This is basically a dead heat between The Departed, which is favored in most circles for Adapted and The Queen, which carries that honor in Original, but the HFP doesn’t make that distinction. I think The Queen has maybe 1 percent more love so I’m going with that. For “should,” it’s maybe 2 percent tighter than The Departed, which has a little flab.

Director

Will Win: Scorsese
Should Win: Scorsese

I’m not just saying this because “he’s due.” In fact, the HFP is one of the few groups who’ve actually given the man some love in the past (one win out of six nods, which for Scorsese is like a ticker tape parade). But this year he really is raking in the plaudits, with the most critics circle wins of any director. Not to mention that The Departed is masterfully crafted. Not that Babel or any of the other films nominated aren’t, but anything to push The Man toward at least one Oscar in his lifetime.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Jennifer Hudson
Should Win: Adriana Barraza

This is kind of a no-brainer, but don’t underestimate the spoiling power of Cate Blanchett. Jennifer Hudson got me all verklempt, but Adriana Barraza gave me outright soul-ache, which I think is slightly harder to pull off.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Will Win: Eddie Murphy
Should Win: Mark Wahlberg

This is a very tough call. First off, the HFP list bears little or no resemblance to the critics circles and almost none at all to the SAG nods, except…wait for it…Eddie Murphy. It’s also a showy role from a popular comedian showing a dramatic side, something for which the HFP have awarded Jim Carrey and Bill Murray in the past. It’s also a tough call in that Murphy gives a truly great performance, but I find Wahlberg’s to be more memorable, and even more of a feat because he holds his own against Martin Sheen, Alec Baldwin, Jack Nicholson, Leo DiCaprio and Matt Damon while creating it.

Actress in a Leading Role - Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Meryl Streep

Since none of these women are named Helen Mirren, this is kind of a tough category to call, however, one of these women is named Merly Streep, and happens to be in the most successful film listed. Of the three performances I’ve seen off this list, Streep’s is, not surprisingly, the strongest.

Actress in a Leading Role - Drama

Will Win: Helen Mirren
Should Win: Helen Mirren

I’ve run across one critics circle that hasn’t given Mirren Best Actress (Austin, who gave it to the overlooked Ellen Page in Hard Candy). I’ve heard good things about Winslet in Little Children, but since I haven’t seen it, I have to go with Mirren who creates one of those complete I-could-run-into-this-person-in-real-life characters, which is espeically impressive since it’s, you know, the Queen.

Actor in a Leading Role - Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
Should Win: Sacha Baron Cohen

I think Cohen’s got a legitmate shot here. This is one of the few comic performances to get notice in traditionally dramatic circles (though I still think an Academy nod is a long shot). As far as merit goes, three words: you try that.

Actor in a Leading Role - Drama

Will Win: Forest Whitaker
Should Win: Forest Whitaker

After Ray and Capote, it seems like becoming a true-life character is the surest way to awards fame. Now, Whitaker’s film wasn’t called Amin, but close enough. He’s got almost as many cc wins as Mirren, and what’s more, it really is a performance on par with Ray and Capote.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

Will Win: Dreamgirls
Should Win: Boratgirls

A tighter category than you might think. Borat kind of came out of nowhere to wow critics, and Little Miss Sunshine has been riding a wave that goes back to this summer. Still, Dreamgirls goes all the way back to Cannes, where the first 20 minutes floored many of the HFP voters and then delivered on that promise upon arrival. Though Dreamgirls seems like the obvious choice, it hasn’t fared well in critics circles, lending credence to the idea that Borat or Sunshine could spoil. At this point, I still can’t decide whether I love Dreamgirls or Borat the most, so whichever wins, I’ll be a happy camper.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Will Win: The Departed
Should Win: United 93

The Departed has the most momentum, but look out for The Queen to spoil. Babel has the most nods, but only in HFP-land. It’s hard to see them go completely against every other organization out there - although The Producer’s Guild took notice, which puts Babel into Oscar play.

All that having been said, it’s time for me to get on my soapbox about United. It’s got more cc wins than any other film (and director Greengrass has garnered his fair share, too), but it’s not even nominated in this category, and the Guilds (with the exception of the WGA!?) have ignored it as well. It’s on it’s way to becoming the Peter Saarsgard in Shattered Glass of this awards season.

If I have to stick with what’s actually nominated, uh, I guess The Departed. The Queen is technically a better film, but The Departed is more fun.