Oscar Nod Press Conference Predictions: Live From the Benihana on Route 4

Well, they’ve got a poster, so…they’ve got that going for them.
More of a mystery than who will be nominated is who will cross the picket lines to announce the nominations:
(a) Larry King and the “Dude, you’re getting a Dell!” dude.
(b) The Coreys
(c) Tay Zonday and the “Thriller” Cebu prison dance squad
(d) “Leave Britney alone!” guy and a ham sandwich.
The nominations will be announced from the Denny’s in Weehawken, N.J. Here’s what I think they will be…
Best Supporting Actress

That’s a man, baby! Oh, no, wait. It’s not.
Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There
Play a dude, get a nod. It’s that simple.
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Probably the only love this film will get.
Catherine Keener - Into the Wild
Basically a nod for being involved with this film.
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
The one to beat, but Blanchett will not go gentle.
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
And she didn’t get a nod for Orlando?
Sorely overlooked: Cheryl Hines in Waitress.
Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Extremely Long Title
Way to beat your bro to a nod.
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
The one to…oh, he’s got it already.
Paul Dano - There Will Be Blood
Wishful thinking on my part, but I’m hoping that once enough of the Academy gets to see his performance, they’ll make up for the lack of kudos it got all awards season.
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Career nod.
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Deserves it, too.
Sorely overlooked: Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s War.
Best Adapted Screenplay

Atonement - Christopher Hampton
The best shot this flick has at a nod.
Charlie Wilson’s War - Aaron Sorkin
About freakin’ time. Though Ronald Harwood’s Diving Bell adaptation could knock this out of contention.
Into the Wild - Sean Penn
I think a lot of the love for this film will be as much about respect for Penn as anything else.
No Country for Old Men - Joel and Ethan Coen
The one to beat.
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
Adapt Upton Sinclair, get a nod. Just kidding.
Sorely overlooked: James Vanderbilt’s Zodiac script, though I consider it a mild spoiler.
Best Original Screenplay

Juno - Diablo Cody
Come on. Her name is Diablo Cody. She used to strip! (Little known fact, so did the Coen Bros. And they were goooood.)
Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
This year’s “little-seen indie” nod, though there are actually quite a few of those.
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Think it deserves it for the “Are we good?” line alone.
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
Kind of a long shot, but I’ve got a hunch.
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins
Assuming I’m right, it’ll be nice to see majority female screenwriters in this category for the first time since, um, ever?
Sorely overlooked: Severance. I know. But honestly one of the most clever scripts of the year. Knocked Up and Superbad could be spoilers here, btw.
Best Actress

Amy Adams - Enchanted
Riding Critics Choice and Golden Globes nods. Keira could spoil for Atonement.
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Sort of the favorite.
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
My favorite in a very strong field.
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Strangely overlooked so far.
Ellen Page - Juno
The other favorite.
Sorely overlooked: Wei Tang in Lust, Caution and Carice van Houten in Black Book.
Best Actor

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
If Daniel Day weren’t up in here, he’d be looking at his second statue.
Emil Hirsch - Into the Wild
Penn-mentum.
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
There will be a second Oscar.
Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl
Only his second nod, but it feels like he’s deserved a win for much longer.
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
Sort of retroactive for A History of Violence, if you ask me.
Sorely overlooked: Chris Cooper in Breach, Denzel and Russell in American Gangster, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Shockingly, would be his first Best Director nod.
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ditto.
Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
The ones to beat.
Sean Penn - Into the Wild
The Academy’s way of saying, “Wait, this is your fourth feature? Really? Good for you!”
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Film might actually get many more nods, but at least this one for sure.
Sorely overlooked: Todd Haynes for I’m Not There, a feat of direction above all else.
Best Picture

Into the Wild
You didn’t think it was gonna come all this way and not get with this award, did you?
Juno
The Little Miss Sunshine of yadda, yadda, yadda…
Michael Clayton
I’m as surprised as you are. Not because it’s a bad film. I just didn’t think anyone was paying attention.
No Country for Old Men
The one to beat, thought Atonement didn’t seem to have a problem with that.
There Will Be Blood
Country’s only real competition.
Atonement and Diving Bell could spoil any but the last two.
Sorely overlooked: Once, American Gangster, Charlie Wilson’s War
So, the nominees will be attached to those little things pizza places stick on your doorknobs on Tuesday morning, before the winners are announced in a mass e-mail in late February. Enjoy!

January 21st, 2008 at 2:26 am
As if the “Taxi to the Dark Side” poster controversy wasn’t strange enough, the Rotten Tomatoes article you link to swapped out the movie’s poster with the one for “Taxi”, the Jimmy Fallon and Queen Latifah comedy. (check the right-hand column)
They’re pretty much the same movie, right?
January 21st, 2008 at 3:25 pm
They’re definitely not the same…the Fallon/Latifah “Taxi” is much grimmer.