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If you’re looking for potential upsets, focus on the women…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

WILL WIN: Amy Ryan
SHOULD WIN: Amy Ryan

This is probably the tightest race of the night. On the surface, it looks like Amy Ryan should be a no-brainer. 18 critics circle wins, including a BFCA. But wait, who got the Golden Globe? Cate Blanchett, along with 6 other wins. And she’s playing a dude! That’s Oscar gold! But wait a minute? Who won BAFTA? Tilda Swinton, as a part of her 5 wins.

All this would be enough withouy Ruby Dee throwing off the curve completely by winning SAG, indicating the will of the largest voting block of the Academy, who has only disagreed with SAG 3 of the last 10 times in this category. Not to mention she represents the “career award” this year (and, by proxy, her late husband’s career).

Even the oddsmakers are in a tizzy, with many giving Ryan 2/1 odds against Blanchett’s 5/4. And Dee’s odds are all over the place. Ultimately, I believe “Cryin’ Ryan’s” momentum will overpower her contenders. But just barely. Blanchett already has her supporting gold from The Aviator, Swinton is not what people remember about Clayton and Dee will probably end up being the 4th time in 11 years the Academy has gone another way (but I consider her the greatest spoiler, not Blanchett).

Of course, it would be awesome if Saoirse Ryan upset them all.

As far as “should,” Ryan gives a pivotal performance in Gone Baby Gone. If she doesn’t work, the film doesn’t work. And the film works spectacularly.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

WILL WIN: Javier Bardem
SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem

By contrast to Best Supporting Actress, the Best Supporting Actor category has been decided for quite some time now. We can pretend that Casey Affleck has a shot with his 5 critics circle wins and second-best 10/1 odds. But that would be a lie. So would Hal Holbrook’s dark horse career win premise, even if he is the oldest actor ever nominated in this category. Didn’t help Gloria Whats-her-face. Not gonna help him. Javier’s 28 wins (including the Globes, BAFTA, BFCA and SAG) and 1/12 odds pretty much sew it up.

Part of the reason this really is a no-brainer is that it’s an iconic performance. What’s more, it demonstrates the value of restraint. Bardem has said that the effectiveness of his character comes primarily from the other characters’ reactions to his character. He just has to sit back and be creepy.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

WILL WIN: Julie Christie
SHOULD WIN: Marion Cotillard

Pretty much a three-way race between Christie, Cotillard and Page. Christie already has an award for 1965’s Darling, but it’s not clear if anyone actually remembers that to hold it against her. Juno is the only film here to cross the $100 million mark and Page has been rocking the publicity tour. Cotillard beat Page for the comedy/musical Globe (with Christie taking the statue for drama).

Here, the SAG award might be the best indicator. Unlike Dee, who won out of nowhere, Christie’s Actor came at the tail end of a string of critical plaudits (16 in all) and oddsmakers favor her for the most part at 1/2 against against Cotillard’s 2/1 or Page’s 7/1.

I’d say the same three capture my attention for “should” (with the caveat that I haven’t seen the other two). All three give fantastic performances, and not to mention they do this in a year full of memorable leading ladies. I’d include Angelina Jolie, Tang Wei and Carice van Houten in this list. Ultimately, though, and maybe because it’s the showiest performance (total transformation and all) I’m compelled to give it to Cotillard.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis

We could pretend that Clooney’s got a shot with his 5 wins and 10/1 odds (pretty much the same as Depp’s) and I’d love to hear his speech, but let’s be honest with ourselves. Daniel Day-Lewis drank the entire awards season milkshake. He drank it up. 25 wins total, including a BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe and SAG statue along the way.

I wouldn’t call his performance as iconic as Bardem’s, but it’s pretty damn close. And, obviously, it’s quotable and easily imitated, two key aspects of any memorable performance. But, as with any great Day-Lewis performance, which is most of them, he really finds his character’s pain and lets us in on that. The empathy that generates, especially when you consider some of his nastier roles, is remarkable.

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

WILL WIN: Joel & Ethan Coen
SHOULD WIN: Paul Thomas Anderson

Is it gonna make for awkward family dinners that Jason Reitman has a nod his second film out but his dad, who directed Ghostbusters and Stripes, has never been nominated?
To look at their 22 wins so far, including a BFCA, BAFTA and DGA award, the Coen Brothers are on their way to long overdue recognition as directors. (The Academy figured out the Brothers knew how to write screenplays back when they gave them a statue for Fargo in ‘97.)

PTA is the other old man of indie film in this fight, although by Coen Brothers standards, he’s still a youngin’. For my money, though, he directed the better film. And though No Country shows growth and mastery by the pair, Blood demonstrates unprecedented range. Anderson seems to have incorporated equal parts Spielberg and Altman into his visual language while achieving even rawer performances in spite of working outside the safety zone of his usual stable of actors.

BEST PICTURE

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

WILL WIN: No Country for Old Men
SHOULD WIN: There Will Be Blood

Most signs point to Country. 24 wins, including BFCA and the Producers Guild. Oddsmakers like it, too, with most of them giving it 1/3. That having been said, let’s not forget that Atonement won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. Let’s not forget the momentum and box office of Juno. Let’s not forget Blood’s 5 wins.

Actually, you know what? Yes. Let’s forget them. No Country will win. It’s been a favorite since awards season began and nothing has really changed.

For the second year in a row, the only film from my top ten to make it into the final five is my number four pick. There Will Be Blood astounds with the potency of its political/religious allegory (it’s the year’s best non-doc about Iraq), the evolution of PTA’s direction and the power of the characters’ journeys. I don’t think I’ve been more impressed with an established director’s work all year.