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In which I actually say a Michael Bay film should win an Oscar…

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers

Now, 300 didn’t come out in 2007, right? Because I’m sure if it had, it would be in this category seeing as it was one of the most visually sumptuous and groundbreaking FX achievements of that or any other year. It would be silly, really, to nominate anything else before it, especially if the effects in this hypothetical movie that replaced 300 were subpar in some way, like, I don’t know, having polar bears that occasionally look really fake or something. Never happen.

I guess I can’t complain too much. The Visual Effects Society ignored 300, too, but at least they acknowledged Harry Potter. They also loved them some Transformers, and seeing as this is the one aspect pretty much every Academy voter can say they liked about the third-highest-grossing film of the year, I’d say it’s got a good shot.

Of the nominated flicks, I’d say Transformers has the most consistently convincing FX, and that opening sequence alone is worth the price of admission. Say what you will about his range, Michael Bay knows how to blow shit up.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf’s Up

Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille

First, let me bitch one last time about The Simpsons Movie not making it past Surf’s Up. There. I’m over it.

There’s no real contest here. Critics agree. Audiences agree. Yadda, yadda, yadda. Chalk another one up for Pixar.

I enjoyed Ratatouille thoroughly and consider it Top Shelf Pixar, but I haven’t actually seen Persepolis, and I have the feeling it’s the kind of movie that could make a serious dent. So put an asterisk next to my “should.” Go ahead. I’ll wait.

THE ROGER DEAKINS AWARD, UM, I MEAN CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Assassination of Jesse James That I’m Still Waiting for in My Netflix Queue
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

This is a close, close category. I only call it the Roger Deakins award because between his work in Assassination (5 critics circle wins) and No Country (4 wins, including a BAFTA) he’s actually accumulated the most plaudits so far. There Will Be Blood has nabbed 5 wins for Robert Elswit, including his some Guild love. And Diving Bell is no slouch with 3 wins.

And, hey, Atonement has a really bitchin’ tracking shot.

So what will it come down to? My best guess is that your average Academy voter will look at the ballot and say, “Well, I’m already voting for No Country for so much else, why not throw a little love to that other desolate depiction of Texas everyone says I should see?” And then they will do coke.

Now, in spite of my airtight logic, the smart Vegas money is still (barely) on No Country.

This is also a close “should” call because all the work I’ve seen in these films is gorgeous (and I’m guessing Assassination will live up to the visual hype when it arrives). I use the word “gorgeous” a lot when talking about cinematography I like, but I rarely use the term “innovative” or “daring.” But that’s what I feel Janusz Kaminski achieved with his work on Diving Bell.

To say, okay, we’re going to lock you in to the eyes (and eventually, eye) of this one character for the first, like, ten minutes straight, and then for most of the rest of the film is a bold choice on the director’s part, but it takes one hell of a cinematographer to actually pull it off and make it interesting as opposed to really, really annoying.

The eye-sewing shot alone clinches it. You’ll know it when you see it.

FILM EDITING

The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum

First, let me say that it’s very, very, very hard for a film that’s not going to win Best Picture to win Best Editing. It happens (Matrix, Black Hawk Down). But the smart money is always on what you think will win the final prize. And yet, this year I’ve got a hunch.

The Bourne Ultimatum was this summer’s gold standard for action. Kind of like Spider-Man 2 winning a spot in the AFI top ten in its day, Ultimatum was the escapist flick that got respect. And to see it in an editing category just makes sense. Most of what people remember from that film’s action are cuts. Not necessarily coherent, but compelling. Add to that an Eddie win (beating out Best Picture presumptives No Country and Blood) and I think you’re in the zone.

Again, it should be noted, oddsmakers like No Country here, but Ultimatum is close behind.

As far as “should,” the style of action on display in Ultimatum requires precision editing that looks random but isn’t. No mean feat.

SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED

Atonement
Away From Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men

The critics, writers’ guild and oddsmakers agree. This is an easy get for Country.

Here I’m going to contradict myself. The problem I had with No Country certainly stems from the screenplay as much as the direction (same source, in any case). The admittedly brave choices the script makes at the end are at the heart of what made the film problematic for me. But the majority of the screenplay I found to be enormously entertaining and well-crafted.

And on top of that, I’m still not sure I disagree with those frustrating choices. And though I may have liked Blood better as a film, it wasn’t (primarily) because of the screenplay.

And this would have been a whole lot easier if they had just nominated freakin’ Charlie Wilson.

SCREENPLAY - ORIGINAL

Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Will Win: Juno
Should Win: Juno

Again, pretty much everyone is in agreement here. The Guild went for it. So did BAFTA and BFCA, not to mention 16 other critics circles. Oddsmakers like it, too. And Diablo’s marketed herself better than any other writer on this list.

I don’t feel strongly about any of these screenplays. The dialogue in Juno’s great, but it’s no better or worse than the dialogue in Reitman’s previous effort. Ratatouille has a strong screenplay, and on the right day I might vote for it instead. Ditto Clayton. But today I like Juno.

Honestly, if you were to throw The Host, Severance or Death Proof in here, it’d be no contest. (I don’t know why horror jumps to mind, but those are some damn good screenplays.)

In our next, and final installment: Daniel Day Lewis drinks George Clooney’s milkshake. He drinks it up.