With many more critics circles chiming in, here’s how things are shaping up:

Early Locks

Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow will be the first woman to win this award.

Best Supporting Actor – Christoph Waltz will be the first…let’s say Austrian…to win this award.  (OK, I was totally guessing when I wrote that, but it turns out that, yes, the man is from Vienna.)

Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique has this pretty much sewn up, but any other year this is Anna Kendrick’s statue.

Original Screenplay – Chalk up another one for Tarantino.

Adapted Screenplay – Up in the Air’s best shot at an Oscar.

Best Doc – Still pissed that Anvil didn’t make the cut, but even if it had, The Cove would still be the film to beat.

Best Animated – Up, but Fantastic Mr. Fox will make Pixar work for it.

Tight Races

Best Picture – Hurt Locker vs. Up in the Air, with a slight edge for Locker.

Best Actor – A hot three-way with George Clooney, Colin Firth, and Jeff Bridges

Best Actress – And starring Carey Mulligan as The Actress Who Gets to Go Up Against Meryl Streep This Year

Best Foreign – Well, if anybody had bothered to submit Sin Nombre and Summer Hours, it’d be all about them.  As that never happened, I have no idea.

Best Cinematography – The grit of Hurt Locker vs. the black and white beauty of The White Ribbon.