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After three weeks at number one, Pirates got pushed out by Vice. It’s knocking on the top ten of all time’s door at number eleven. I overshot the Miami gross, but not horribly. Still ends up being Mann’s highest opening. I way overshot Ant Bully, but my theory about diminishing returns on animated fare holds true, just truer than I expected. I was pretty dead on with John Tucker, which is kind of sad because that means it landed in third place.

Little Miss Sunshine’s per-screen this weekend? Just south of $51,000. Like I said, Searchlight will make their money back.

8/4

Wide

TALLADEGA NIGHTS: THE BALLAD OF RICKY BOBBY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Anchorman, but with NASCAR.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and that’s not surprising given the fact that the same team behind Anchorman reunites here. Ferrell and director Adam McKay once again share writing duties, and the supporting cast includes such Frat Pack stand-bys as Gary Cole and David Koechner and adds to them Michael Clarke Duncan, John C. Reilly, Amy Adams, Sacha Baron Cohen, Andy Richter and, of course, Elvis Costello and Mos Def.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With audiences maxed out on CG by the time Barnyard comes out this week, there’s really no other competition, and I think people miss Ferrell in form. $99mil.

THE NIGHT LISTENER
Anybody listening in there? I know it’s still daylight out, but, you know, I thought I’d, you know, check.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Indie thriller with Robin Williams investigating the claims of an unusual story involving a young boy and his mother (Toni Collette).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, though critics seem to be preferring it to audiences, in an unusual twist. It seems strange, given the fact that Armistead Maupin is co-adapting his own novel here, and having it directed by The Business of Strangers helmer Patrick Stettner, but that’s how it turned out. Bobby Cannavale is up in here, tho, and that can’t hurt.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s a nice bit of counter-programming - this feels like a fall movie. However, I don’t know if that will be enough to defeat mediocre buzz, especially in wide release. $10mil.

THE DESCENT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A group of spelunkers are terrorized by, well, let’s just say bad things, man, bad things.

WILL IT SUCK?
Could end up being the best horror film of the year. Certainly the best I’ve seen in a while. My full review will be up on filmcritic.com on Friday. Don’t watch the trailer!

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it weren’t for Pulse the following week…this would still have trouble. Although the buzz is hella-good, there’s just not that much market penetration. But if anyone can take a no-name horror flick and turn it into gold, Lionsgate can. The rumored Saw III trailer tie-on should help. $25mil.

BARNYARD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Oh, look. It’s another CG-animated flick about rebellious animals.

WILL IT SUCK?
The other half of Santa vs. the Snowman and Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius (the first half did Ant Bully the previous week - and we saw how that turned out), Steve Oedekirk, is behind this one, writing and directing. As much as I secretly enjoyed his last feature-length writing/directing gig, the terrible, terrible Kung Pow: Enter the Fist, I still don’t consider that a lock.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even though Zoom comes out the following week, the real problem comes from being the third in a series of CG-animated flicks released on consecutive weekends. I underestimated how much people would loathe The Ant Bully, so I’m going to try to downplay this one. $27mil.

Limited

QUINCEAÑERA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Quinceañera is a ceremony celebrating a young Hispanic girl’s 15th birthday. Except when her father finds out she’s pregnant. Then all hell breaks loose.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but not as good as you’d expect for a film that won both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award at Sundance.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This week? Fine. Next week it’s gotta deal with Half Nelson and House of Sand. $2mil.

Next Week: Is it too soon for a movie about 9/11? I mean, another one?