I think expectations for Christmas Carol might have been a bit high. When they’re calling a $31 million haul underwhelming, they forget that (a) mo-cap is still a little creepy and (b) Beowulf and Polar Express had similar opens (Express was actually about $10 million worse). Flick will probably hit $90 million, and I was only expecting $113 million so the lesson here maybe is that you can cover Jim Carrey with layers of cute fuzzy green makeup and expect a blockbuster, but pockmarked CG, not so much.
Goats doing better than expected, but I still think a limited release would have served them better. Fourth Kind somehow beating The Box, which had a bigger cast and (somewhat) known director. Think the Paranormal Activity zeitgeist helped out there.
The big story, though, is the $100,000 per-screen for Precious, which has Roger Ebert tweeting about it being the next Slumdog.
10/13
Wide
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Roland Emmerich destroys the world. Again.
WILL IT SUCK?
Emmerich has that rare talent of being able to make movies that are entertaining-but-meh (The Day After Tomorrow, Independence Day, The Patriot). Co-writing here with Harald Kloser, his writing partner for 10,000 B.C., it seems like this one will, like 10,000 B.C., be neither entertaining-nor-meh, but just suck. And, no, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Oliver Platt will not be able to save it.
Early buzz is, shockingly, good. Although, not so shockingly, it’s of the “so-bad-it’s-good” variety.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
New Moon is gonna hurt. Other than that, clear skies ahead. $154mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Good for some technical nods, I’m sure.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In the 60′s, when the British government bans rock and roll, a rogue bunch, led by Philip Seymour Hoffman, broadcast from the high seas. Based on a true story.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Big fan of writer/director Richard Curtis (Love Actually). Great cast, including Bill Nighy, Kenneth Branagh, Rhys Ifans, Nick Frost, Jack Davenport, and January Jones. Looks like a lot of fun.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably gonna get lost in the whole 2012/New Moon foofaraw. $31mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With a more unanimous critical reception (or at least the promise of a bigger box office) I might be more inclined to say yes.
Limited
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woody Harrelson and Ben Foster portray two army men whose job it is to tell families about their fallen loved ones.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. The directorial debut of Oren Moverman, who also co-wrote this script, not to mention the screenplays for Jesus’ Son and I’m Not There. Co-stars one of my favorites, Samantha Morton.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s not so much that Iraq War movies rarely do well so much as intimate indie dramas rarely do well. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Oscilliscope can afford the costly Oscar campaign, Harrelson, Foster, and Morton could all be looking at nods.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Roald Dahl, meet Wes Anderson.
WILL IT SUCK?
Although I feel that Wes Anderson has been producing diminishing returns since Royal Tenenbaums, I’m always interested in what he’s up to. And here’s he’s joined by Life Aquatic co-writer (and Squid and the Whale auteur) Noah Baumbach. Oh, and it’s got stop-motion animals.
Voice talent includes George Clooney, Meryl Streep, Bill Murray, Adrien Brody, Owen Wilson, Jason Schwartzman, Willem Dafoe, Wes himself, Brian Cox, Anjelica Huston, and Michael Gambon.
Early buzz is crap-your-pants good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Limited run leads up to a wide opening over Thanksgiving weekend. Smart. $68mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It’s going to be a crowded Best Animated category.
Next Week: The sequel everyone’s been waiting for finally arrives: Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans.
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