Three Colons, No Waiting
I Am Legend writes itself into the history books with the largest December open ever - $76.5 million. Alvin and the Chipmunks has the biggest opening ever for a movie with “Chipmunks” in the title - $45 million. And the horse I backed, Golden Compass, crashes and burns in week two.
12/21
Wide
NATIONAL TREASURE: BOOK OF SECRETS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
More treasure hunting with Nicolas Cage and Friends.
WILL IT SUCK?
I’ve gotta admit, I rather liked the original, and they’ve basically brought everyone back in front of and behind the camera (while adding Helen Mirren and Ed Harris), so I’m psyched. Don’t look at me.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not the easiest weekend, but this is the frontrunner. $140mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Bruckheimer’s magic is to add Academy Award-winning actors to action films, not win them.
WALK HARD: THE DEWEY COX STORY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Musical Biopic Movie
WILL IT SUCK?
Normally I would dismiss this out of hand as an especially narrow attempt at an Airplane-style parody, but Judd Apatow is all over this. He wrote it, and Undeclared and Freaks and Geeks alum Jake Kasdan (yeah, I didn’t know he worked on those, either) directed and co-wrote. And, as usual, we have the Apatow Players making for a kick-ass cast.
Early buzz is sick.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has the advantage of being the lone wacky comedy of the season. $71mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Apatow love will probably go to Knocked Up, if anything.
SWEENEY TODD: THE DEMON BARBER OF FLEET STREET
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Barbershop, but with fewer black people and more dead people.
WILL IT SUCK?
Great cast: Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, Alan Rickman, Anthony Head and Sacha Baron Cohen. They didn’t skimp on the screenplay, either (John Logan of The Aviator, The Last Samurai, Gladiator and RKO 281). But the main thing is Tim Burton. Harry Knowles is already calling it his best since Ed Wood.
Early buzz is fantastic.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it weren’t opening against National Treasure, better. $54mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Burton has been dissed so many times before, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that this will be his Departed.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Gerard Butler (300) leaves messages for the woman (Hilary Swank) he widowed. Unfortunately, they are not “Madness!?! This! Is! The AFTERLIFE!” or “Tonight, we dine in hell! I’ll pick up the tab, sweetie.”
WILL IT SUCK?
Swank must love her some Richard LaGravenese. She starred in his Freedom Writers earlier this year. He co-wrote and helmed this one, as well. As I remember, Writers got a better-than-expected reception, so that may bode well. Also, it has James Marsters (you know, Spike), so it has to be good.
Early buzz is mixed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No direct competition, but National Treasure will tug on that demo. Also, Swank is an unproven quantity in the romcom space. $37mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A few winners up in here, but no.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember those guys in Afghanistan we’re fighting right now? Funny story. We armed them. Here’s how.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but not “Holy Shit, Give It The Oscar Now” good. Admittedly, expectations are kind of high given the combo of Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts (not to mention Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams) being helmed by Mike Nichols and speaking Sorkin (he’s in West Wing territory here, not Studio 60 - or, to put it another way, he’s not “STANDING IN THE MIDDLE OF A FIELD IN AFGHANISTAN!!!”).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Moved to get out of the way of a glut of Christmas Day releases, and ran into a glut of pre-Christmas weekend releases. $66mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Probably not quite as many nods as you’d expect from a Nichols/Sorkin/Hanks/Roberts ticket, though the Golden Globe nods won’t hurt.
Limited
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Unlike all you Mountain Dew-swilling posers out there, real extreme skiers parachute off of mountains.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz on this sports doc is mixed. Critics no, audiences yes. From a guy who’s done a couple of Peter Jennings reports on aliens and Kennedy. If he does a doc on aliens and Kennedy extreme skiing, I’m there.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A strangely quiet weekend in indieville, but the market will already be so glutted with the second and third frames of major indie releases that it won’t matter. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not so many extreme sports fans in the Academy.
Next Week: Christmas comes on a Tuesday, technically a part of the above weekend, but I’m not posting, like, fifty movies in this week’s preview, so I’ll post the rest on Monday.
December 18th, 2007 at 12:14 am
I could have sworn some of these (in particular “Charlie Wilson” and “Sweeney”) didn’t open wide until Xmas Day…
December 18th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Even though they kept saying “Christmas,” Sweeney was always set for Dec. 21 to take advantage of the full 4-day weekend. “Charlie” was supposed to come out 12/25, but they decided to move it for maybe the same reason.
It’s probably a toss-up as to whether you’re better off opening on a less-crowded Christmas Tuesday or an extremely crowded pre-Christmas Friday.