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Of all the movies to take down Avatar, I did not expect it to be Dear John.

2/12

Wide

THE WOLFMAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An American Werewolf in Victorian England

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Joe Johnston has done some decent work: October Sky, The Rocketeer (yes, The Rocketeer), even Jurassic Park III didn’t totally suck.  But with a project like this, you want to hear a Gueillermo del Toro is attached.  Andrew Kevin Walker (Se7en) seems more up to speed, although he hasn’t written much since 8MM (I think he’s served his time for that one).  The fact that the co-writer penned Thirteen Days and Road to Perdition doesn’t hurt.  Can’t complain about the cast, which includes Benicio Del Toro, Anthony Hopkins, Emily Blunt, and Hugo Weaving.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
While this might seem like the 800lb, um, wolf in the room, it’s got to deal with a little bit of demo suck by Percy Jackson this week, and a little more by Shutter Island the next, not to mention date drag from Valentine’s Day.  $90mil.

VALENTINE’S DAY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
If it’s February, it must be an ensemble romcom.

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Gary Marshall, but that could just as easily give you The Other Sister as Pretty Woman.  Screenwriter did a lot of Army Wives (which is apparently beloved on IMDb) and The Prince and Me, and shares a story credit with co-screenwriters from He’s Just Not That Into You.  As for the massive cast, you’ve got Julia Roberts, Jessica Alba, Kathy Bates, Jessica Biel, Bradley Cooper, Patrick Dempsey, Hector Elizondo, Jamie Foxx, Jennifer Garner, Topher Grace, Anne Hathaway, Ashton Kutcher, Queen Latifah, George Lopez, Shirley MacLaine, and just in case they missed the tween demo, Taylor Swift (and yes, she’s on the soundtrack, too).

One good review out so far, but even they don’t like the script.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second frame of Dear John is an issue, but this has star appeal to burn.  $70mil.

PERCY JACKSON & THE OLYMPIANS: THE LIGHTNING THIEF

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Modern day Clash of the Titans.

WILL IT SUCK?
Chris Columbus did a fine job launching the Harry Potter series so there’s no reason he can’t launch the first of these Rick Riordan novel adaptations.  Less encouraging is the screenwriter’s credits on See Spot Run, Scooby Doo, and Cheaper by the Dozen.  Interesting cast: Pierce Brosnan (with a big bushy beard!), Uma Thurman, Steve Coogan, Joey Pants, and more.

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As popular a move as it is, launching a franchise based on a popular fantasy series is actually unlikely to work, especially if the series isn’t extremely well-known to start with.  $53mil.

Limited

MY NAME IS KHAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Trials and tribulations of a Muslim man (Shahrukh Khan) with Asperger’s syndrome living in San Francisco in the wake of 9/11.  Based on a true story.

WILL IT SUCK?
Don’t know enough about Bollywood to tell you the odds on a combo of Khan, co-star Kajol, and director Karan Johar producing a critical success.  All I can tell you is that they are beloved in Bollywood.  Especially Khan.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Khan’s first real attempt at a cross-cultural hit (and one of the first for Bollywood), and all I can tell you about that is that there’s not much competition.  $5mil.

Next Week: Eastwood and Affleck have had their shot; now it’s Scorsese’s turn to take on Lehane.

Here are the nominees.  Here’s what I predicted.  I shot 78% this year.

Cinematography – (4/5) – Did not see Harry Potter coming, or Nine going.

Best Supporting Actress – (3/5) – One of the biggest surprises, in my opinion, is Maggie Gyllenhaal.  Not because she doesn’t deserve it so much as no one has said anything about her performance all awards season.

Best Supporting Actor – (4/5) – I should’ve just gone straight up and down with SAG on this one.  A perfect match.

Best Adapted Screenplay – (3/5) – Three nice surprises here.  One, In the Loop, which I couldn’t be happier about.  Two, District 9, which got a lot more respect from the Academy than I expected.  Three, Precious, which I expected to get overlooked here for no good reason, but got the nod for every good reason.

Best Original Screenplay – (3/5) – Surprised (500) Days of Summer got no love here (or anywhere).  Impressed that Avatar got no love here, but I really shouldn’t be; Titanic didn’t get any writing nods, either.

Best Actress – (5/5) – No surprises.

Best Actor – (5/5) – Yay for Renner!

Best Director – (5/5) – I was wrong.  Lee Daniels is not the first African American to be nominated for Best Director.  John Singleton did it in 1992 for Boyz N the Hood.  Daniels is the first to do it for a film that got a Best Picture nod.

Best Picture – (7/10) – How did I not see The Blind Side coming?  No pun intended.

Aside from the acting categories, I think we should be looking at a pretty exciting night.

As usual, I have no idea who’s in the Super Bowl or when it’s being held.  Scratch that.  That’s all I know about the Super Bowl.  And, as usual, armed with only that information, and a vague sense of what would happen if each team’s namesake were to do battle, I will predict the winner of this year’s Super Bowl with approximately 50% chance of error.

Behold.

KICKING

As I pointed out when the Bears took on the Colts in 2007, colts, while failing miserably at having arms and thus, passing, are fantastic kickers.  And who won that game?  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.  Bears. Can’t. Kick.  Saints, on the other hand, are perfectly adequate kickers.  But they’re no colts.

ADVANTAGE: COLTS

PATRONAGE

See this guy?  He’s the Patron Saint of brewers.  He got you drunk that one time.

Just about everything has a patron saint, from Lost Causes to Rope Braiders (Seriously.  It’s Paul, by the way.  Paul the Apostle is also the Patron Saint of Rope Braiders and Rope Makers.  You cannot make this shit up.)  There are even different patron saints for horses, sick horses, and work horses.

There is no Patron Colt of fuck all.

ADVANTAGE: SAINTS

BARRIERS TO ENTRY

The canonization process can take decades if not centuries to occur.  You can’t even start until five years after the candidate dies.  There’s a panel and investigations and oh (unless you martyr yourself), at some point you have to perform two miracles.  Did I mention you have to perform them after you die?

To become a colt your parents have to fuck.

ADVANTAGE: SAINTS

THE RUNNING GAME

Colts can generally run faster than saints, however, there is a patron saint of saddlemakers, so you can see how that could even the playing field.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

MALT LIQUOR ENDORSEMENTS

According to unbelievably creepy claims by Billy Dee Williams, Colt 45 “works every time.”  No such claim has been made about St. Ives.

ADVANTAGE: COLTS

GOOGLEABILITY

There are over 17 million results for “colts” in Google.  There are over 64 million for “saints.”

ADVANTAGE: THIS COULD NOT POSSIBLY HELP EITHER TEAM

TWITTERABILITY

Stop making up words.

PIETY

The answer might seem obvious, but horses don’t have to deal with Original Sin to begin with.  Just saying.

ADVANTAGE: EVEN

Last year, when the Cardinals and Steelers appeared to be evenly matched, I predicted that Catholic guilt would shame the Steelers into a loss.  Clearly that logic, although flawless, had a flaw, so this year I’m predicting that the lesser-known “horse guilt” will give the Colts another win.

The only record Avatar has yet to beat is the domestic box office gross of Titanic.  It’s a little over $6 million shy.

2/5

Wide

DEAR JOHN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
After meeting the girl of his dreams (Amanda Seyfried), soldier (Channing Tatum) re-enlists in the wake of 9/11.

WILL IT SUCK?
Lasse Hallstrom is usually solid in the director’s chair, even if he isn’t usually my cup of tea.  From a Nicholas Sparks novel, but before you get your Notebook panties in a bunch, it’s adapted by We Are Marshall scribe Jamie Linden.  Oh, and Richard Jenkins is up in here, too.

Early buzz not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Valentine’s Day might be an issue the following week, but there’s very little crossover between this and the John-Travolta-kicking-ass demo.  $40mil.

FROM PARIS WITH LOVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Taken director does the buddy cop thing (John Travolta and Johnathan Rhys Meyers).

WILL IT SUCK?
This isn’t actually the first time Pierre Morel has done the buddy cop thing.  District B13 is essentially a buddy cop film that happens to have a lot of parkour.  This is not that.  It’s written by the guy who wrote the little-seen (and little thought of) Charlie Sheen vehicle Shadow Conspiracy.  At least the story comes from Luc Besson, which is usually a good thing.  Travolta should be fun to watch, though I have no idea how well Rhys Meyers will pull off the dorky hunk thing instead of the, you know, hunky hunk thing.

Early buzz is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ironically, the District B13 sequel comes out this week, too, but only in limited release.  The real challenge comes from the second frame of Edge of Darkness and, moreso, the first frame of Wolfman next week.  $63mil.

Limited

FROZEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Three skiers get stuck on a chairlift.  Hurty things ensue.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  From the writer/director of indie horror darling Hatchet (and yes, there will be a Hatchet 2).  Cute casting: The lead is Iceman from X-Men (Shawn Ashmore).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sundance buzz should help, but indie horror is a hard sell.  $1mil.

DISTRICT 13: ULTIMATUM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
More parkour bad-assery from David Belle and Cyril Raffaelli.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, if you haven’t seen the original District B13, get on that.  Early buzz is good, but praises the stunts more than anything else.  Luc Besson does the screenplay.  Director’s a relative newcomer since the last guy to direct one of these is now directing John Travolta.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even the art house action junkies are gonna want to see From Paris With Love.  $2mil.

Next Week: Bad moon rising.

Did you know? You can get this preview e-mailed to you:

The other bests of 2009 movies: Best Last Line, Best Action Sequence, etc.

More than ever, I’m finding that my predictions line up with the guild nominations for the respective categories.  Is this year’s crop that predictable?  Or am I just going to be very, very wrong?

Also, I decided this year to take a crack at Best Cinematography, just because the line up looks interesting.  Of course, I just ended up going with the ASC nods…

Best Cinematography

Avatar – Mauro Fiore

Kind of weird when you think how much of this was digital, but that’s still cinematography, right?

The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd

Worth it for that one extreme close-up of the post-bomb sand alone.

Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson

People don’t usually associate Tarantino with cinematography, but those long held shots only work if the composition is flawless.

Nine – Dion Beebe

About the highest profile nod I expect this to get, but I could be wrong.

The White Ribbon – Christian Berger

A frontrunner?

Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

This is not the reason Anna Kendrick will have trouble winning.

Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air

Filling in the ingenue slot, but her role is so much more than that.

Diane Kruger – Inglourious Basterds

This could just as easily be Penelope Cruz, but I doubt Nine will get that much love.

Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

The actual reason Anna Kendrick will have trouble winning.

Samantha Morton – The Messenger

Kind of a long shot, but the Academy loves her, and Woody Harrelson’s more likely Supporting nod for means the film is on their radar.

Sorely Overlooked: Mariah Carey in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, Rosamund Pike in An Education

Best Supporting Actor

Peter Capaldi – In the Loop

Wishful thinking on my part, but stranger things have happened.

Matt Damon – Invictus

Arguably a lead performance, but it’s not like his chances would be any better in that category.

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Would be his second nod.  A lot of people forget about Larry Flynt.

Christopher Plummer – The Last Station

Would be his first after 52 years in the business.

Cristoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Calling him “the one to beat” would give you the false impression he was beatable.

Sorely Overlooked: David Rasche in In the Loop

Best Adapted Screenplay

An Education – Nick Hornby

Stupid WGA rules won’t lock Nick Hornby out of this nod.

Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach

First animated nod in this category in a while, right?  Or ever?  Anyone?

In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche

Again, wishful thinking, but at least a few critics circles remembered it for this category.

Julie & Julia – Nora Ephron

The most obviously based-on-a-book title on the Academy’s radar (besides Precious, which for some reason isn’t getting any screenplay heat).  Plus, has the cache of being based on two.

Up in the Air – Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner

One of the many things that people love about this movie.

Sorely Overlooked: Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire – Geoffrey Fletcher

Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber

The little-indie-comedy-that-surprised-us-all nod of the pack.

Avatar – James Cameron

This spot belongs to Up, but as Avatar is the prohibitive favorite for Best Picture, the Academy has to at least pretend it had one of the year’s best screenplays.

The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal

May be this flick’s best shot at a win.

Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino

Stupid WGA rules won’t lock Tarantino out of this category, which he’s already won once before.  (Okay, this rule might not be that stupid since he’s not actually a member and it’s their prerogative to award those who actually belong to their organization.  Still, the award might have a more definitive status if it expanded its scope, plus, it’s not a bad recruiting tool to be given an award from an organization that likes what you do.  But I digress.)

A Serious Man – Ethan & Joel Coen

Probably deserves a lot more than this, but it is a good screenplay.

Sorely Overlooked: Adventureland – Greg Mottola

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

And she will probably win.  Seriously.

Helen Mirren – The Last Station

“Dear Dame Mirren (I’m assuming you’re a Dame, since you’re British and all), I did not see or hear of nor am I sure what the name of your movie is, but I heard you were good in it, so I am going to nominate you for Best Actress since it just feels like the right thing to do.  Yours truly, The Academy.”

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Until recently, the prohibitive favorite (or at least a spoiler for Streep).  Then Bullock happened.

Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Strangely, overshadowed by Mo’Nique even though her performance is a classic Best Actress performance.

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

If this happens, she will have been nominated five times in the past 10 years!

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

And he will win.  With a standing ovation.

George Clooney – Up in the Air

He would have won, but then Bridges happened.

Colin Firth – A Single Man

Was never going to win, but it’s nice to know the Academy was paying attention.

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Would be number five.

Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker

If it happens, which is as likely as not, would be a hell of a get for a guy most people hadn’t heard of (and still haven’t).

Sorely Overlooked: Sam Rockwell in Moon, Sharlto Copley in District 9

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

I sooooo want her to win.  Mostly so’s I can see the look on her ex’s face.

James Cameron – Avatar

I sooooo don’t want to see the look on his face if he wins.  Nor do I want to hear him speak Na’vi again.

Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Would be the first time an African American has been nominated for Best Director ever.  Yup.  We got one elected President first.

Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

His second nod for only his third film.  Damn.

Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Not a member of the DGA, either, but he still got nominated for their award.  Just saying.

Sorely Overlooked: Pete Docter & Bob Peterson for Up

Best Picture

Avatar

Sigh.

(500) Days of Summer

Think of this as the Little Miss Sunshine slot.

An Education

There’s ten nominees.  Just having a high profile acting nod is suddenly enough to make the cut (not that this doesn’t deserve it).

The Hurt Locker

I remember when I thought even having ten nominees wouldn’t be enough to get this on the Academy’s radar.  Glad to be (fingers crossed) wrong.

Inglourious Basterds

This would give it almost every nod Pulp Fiction got back in the day.

Invictus

Clint Eastwood make any movies this year?  Yeah?  Okay, throw it in.

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

That many high profile performances and our first black director?  No way this doesn’t make it in.  Unless it’s The Color Purple.

Star Trek

Yay!  We’re the Academy!  We’re populist!

Up

With ten nominees, we’re probably looking at a reserved Pixar spot for the foreseeable future.

Up in the Air

I want to think of this as a frontrunner, but I know I shouldn’t.

Sorely Overooked: Sherlock Holmes. There, I said it.

We should really start calling this part of the preview Who Did Avatar Beat Now? Flick is now the second highest grossing US (Dark Knight, we hardly knew ye), non-US, and worldwide.  At this rate, in a few weeks, it could be number one on all three. Update: It’s beat Titanic for non-US.

1/29

Wide

WHEN IN ROME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman (Kristen Bell) takes some coins from a fountain in Rome unleashing a spell that causes a bunch of dudes to fall for her (like Kristen Bell needs to steal shit to get macked on).

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Daredevil and Ghost Rider and the writers of Old Dogs.  Excuse me while I go into a corner and weep softly.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No romcoms for miles but (with much love for Veronica Mars) can Bell open a movie?  $31mil.

EDGE OF DARKNESS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Mel Gibson’s back, and he’s got that crazy look in his eyes!

WILL IT SUCK?
From director Martin Campbell, who’s got all sorts of street cred after Casino Royale.  (He also directed the Three Men and Adena episode of Homicide which is just the Best. Episode. Ever.)  Written by the guy who wrote The Departed (and Kingdom of Heaven and Body of Lies but, dude, The Departed!).

Co-starring Danny Huston and Ray Winstone, which is much more interesting to me than Gibson’s return to the front of the camera.  By the way, when I heard the last line of the trailer, I was all, “You just couldn’t resist, could you?”

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Morel Taken follow-up From Paris With Love opens the following week with Travolta and all the media buys it needs to give the fallen-from-grace Gibson a run for his money.  $57mil.

Next Week: An American Badass in Paris

My Top Ten Lists are usually full of Hard Films with Difficult Themes that deal with Complex Issues.  To be honest, though, I like Big Loud Fun Movies, too.  But those films are rarely done with the same care and attention reserved for their sad sack cousins.  Maybe it’s the economy, but this year Hollywood really brought its escapist A game.

10. Avatar

“Everything is backwards now, like out there is the true world and in here is the dream.”

Yes, I know it’s the Second Coming of Filmmaking and we’re all supposed to worship at its 3D altar (and Lord knows it was better than Titanic), but I’m very particular about what I do and don’t love about this film:

Love the fact that Cameron really does create a world that doesn’t just look cool (It’s the Godiva of eye candy) but has aspects that would be just as compelling in a novel.  The movie, in fact, often feels like the covers of those old school sci-fi novels come to life. Love that Cameron still knows how to direct the hell out of an action sequence. Love Stephen Lang (also for Men Who Stare at Goats and his five lines in Public Enemies). Love that the screenplay is actually structurally sound, but this is also where we get to what I don’t love.

Don’t love “unobtanium,” even though I now get the reference. Don’t love the pockets of crap dialogue that Cameron could have polished (the scripts for Aliens and Terminator are much, much tighter). Don’t love (and don’t hate) most of the acting and story, which comes off as functional rather than gripping.

There’s a lot of potential here.  The concepts he introduces could be taken in a lot of really interesting directions.  And maybe that’s the curse of an origin story and he’ll address some of that in the sequel.  But for now, it’ll have to settle for being my tenth favorite movie of ‘09.  Oh, the shame.

9. Sherlock Holmes

“Summary: ears ringing, jaw fractured, three ribs cracked, four broken, diaphragm hemorrhaging. Physical recovery six weeks. Full psychological recovery six months. Ability to spit at back of head neutralized.”

Apparently I’m in the minority on this, but I found Sherlock Holmes to be massively more entertaining than Avatar.  Maybe it’s the characters.  It’s unfair, perhaps to pit Sam Worthington against Robert Downey Jr, but there it is.  Watching him and the underrated Jude Law (trust me, the film does not work without him) navigate 19th century London has more appeal for me than (admittedly pretty) blue people flying around Pandora.  And while Guy Ritchie’s exuberant direction may have pissed off some, I feel he incorporates the style of Snatch and Lock, Stock nicely into Holmes’ milieu. Aiding that aesthetic is a charming score by Hans Zimmer that uses what sounds like lo-fi period Irish folk music to enhance what would otherwise be Dramatic Action Orchestral Score #5409.  And while I can’t attest to how well the film hews to the characterizations of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s original works (it’s been a while), the principle of deductive reasoning driving Holmes’ methodology is at work in virtually every scene, even the fistfights.

8. Food, Inc.

“A culture that just uses a pig as a pile of protoplasmic inanimate structure, to be manipulated by whatever creative design the human can foist on that critter, will probably view individuals within its community, and other cultures in the community of nations, with the same type of disdain and disrespect and controlling type mentalities.”

This is the iceberg underneath the surface that Morgan Spurlock sits on for 30 days in Super Size Me.  An expose of how we get the food we eat ends up being more about what’s wrong with applying corporate efficiency to natural processes than the evils of an unhealthy diet.  This Inconvenient Truth for food manufacturing (and that’s really what it is now – manufacture, not farming) brings the disturbing facts about how switching to using corn for everything can lead to E. coli outbreaks and how subsidizing poor eating habits can lead to 1 in 3 children born after 2000 developing early onset diabetes (1 in 2 if they’re minorities).  And like An Inconvenient Truth it offers solutions and not just alarmism – even when those solutions involve the cooperation, not the defeat, of big companies.  It’s very telling that Walmart comes out looking slightly less creepy than its food conglomerate suppliers for (a) being willing to talk on camera and (b) cutting deals with organic food growers instead of trying to wipe them out.

7. Star Trek

“I like this ship! You know, it’s exciting!”

This is how you do escapism.  Director J.J. Abrams and screenwriters Roberto Orci and Alex Kurtzman (improbable writers of one of the worst films of ‘09, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – oh, the difference a director can make) faced a Herculean task.  Gain the trust of rabidly loyal fans while appealing to a larger audience who could care less.  The masterstroke, aside from brilliant casting, was making the plot itself revolve around a reboot.  Then all  they had to do was infuse every scene, every bit of dialogue with respect, not just for the series (sometimes a lack of respect was required) but for the audience.  And aside from one niggling story problem (which on repeated viewings bothers me less and less) they pull it off.  Like Khan before it, I could take someone who had never seen Star Trek and say, “Hey, wanna watch a great action movie?”

6. (500) Days of Summer

“Just because she’s likes the same bizzaro crap you do doesn’t mean she’s your soul mate.”

(500) Days of Summer may not be the first romcom to play fast and loose with chronology but it’s probably the best, thanks to whip-smart dialogue by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber delivered flawlessly by Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Zooey Deschanel and brisk direction by Marc Webb (now to helm the Spider-Man reboot.  Hmmm.). Rather than use the film’s time shifts as a gimmick to keep us interested in a hackneyed plot, Weber lets them be a lens through which to understand the nooks and crannies of a complex, real, and ultimately doomed relationship between two flawed human beings.  We see what time, perspective, and life does to the paths two people take when they become a part of each others lives.  And we laugh.  A lot.

5. Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

“There’s always something wrong with these tests. These tests paint a picture of me with no brain. These tests paint a picture of me and my mother, my whole family as less than dumb. Just ugly black grease, need to be wiped away, find a job for.”

Okay, they’re not all gonna be happy-go-lucky.  But by getting inside the lives of these characters and not just using them as archetypes, director Lee Daniels and writer Geoffrey Fletcher make this domestic horror story connect with the audience, and not just shock them, all the while touching cleverly and bitingly on issues of race, sexuality, gender, and class.  Doesn’t hurt that this is one of those films where every performance is dead on, from the lead, astounding newcomer Gabourey Sidibe, to Lenny Kravitz and his two or three scenes – not to mention a near-unrecognizable Mariah Carey who, in one fell swoop, makes up for Glitter.  Of course, the performance that elevates the film from compelling drama to unforgettable experience belongs to Mo’Nique who, in the film’s final moments, fleshes out the true horror at the heart of the tale.

4. The Hurt Locker

“There’s enough bang in there to blow us all to Jesus. If I’m gonna die, I want to die comfortable.”

This is not a war film.  This is not an action film.  This is a character study.  But it does an excellent job of disguising itself (and performing all the duties of) the first two.  You will not find a more tense film, but at the end of the day, this is a movie about why some people actually seek out that tension.  A laser-sharp refinement of the high-risk, male-dominated worlds director Kathryn Bigelow explored in Point Break and K-19: The Widowmaker, Hurt Locker reveals her as a singular talent, no small thanks to an outstanding script by Mark Boal, bringing visceral texture to the psychological and physical nightmare of urban warfare.  More here.

3. Up

“Now, we’re gonna walk to the falls quickly and quietly with no rap music or flashdancing.”

Just when I thought that Pixar couldn’t get any better, they got better.  Up is, in fact, my second favorite Pixar movie of all time (you’ll have to wait for my Top 20 of the 00’s post to see my number one).  Nathan Fillion uses the film as a Turing test:

“Robot test #12. Go see Pixar’s UP. If your date doesn’t cry, robot”

I guess I’m not a replicant cos’ I got verklempt more than once during this sweet tale that should have been all cotton candy but was actually prime rib.  The first five minutes is some of the most efficient visual storytelling since the opening pan of Rear Window.  Not to mention that one of the first shots in Pixar’s first 3D feature is of a boy sitting in a movie theater putting on big-ass goggles.  They never stop being smart.  But they also never stop having a soul.  Oh, and did I mention it’s the funniest Pixar flick since Toy Story 2?  Basically, all the things a movie can do, Up does.  Admirably.

2. Inglourious Basterds

“You probably heard we ain’t in the prisoner-takin’ business; we in the killin’ Nazi business. And cousin, business is a-boomin’.”

On the surface, Inglourious Basterds is nothing more than one of those exploitation films Quentin Tarantino lauds in Not Quite Hollywood.  But underneath that is the first film he’s really made about movies (even though his critics claim he’s been making movies about other movies since day one).  It’s not just that a movie theater plays a central role in the plot and that one character’s knowledge of German cinema is key to his involvement; these are simply narrative elements that set up Tarantino’s exploration of the role films (and in a larger sense narratives)  play in our perception and reflect on us as an audience.  It’s too spoilery to say why, but the climax is more disturbing  than fulfilling for this very reason.

But even if you ignore all that, you have some of the best characters Tarantino has ever written and best performances he’s ever elicited (let’s just give you your Oscar now, Mr. Waltz) and perhaps the single best scene he’s ever filmed: The first twenty minutes, which could easily stand on its own as a riveting one act play.

1. Up in the Air

“Make no mistake, moving is living. Some animals were meant to carry each other to live symbiotically over a lifetime. Star crossed lovers, monogamous swans. We are not swans. We are sharks.”

Some films are great because they are timeless (and certainly Up in the Air touches on timeless theme of isolation), but some are great because they so perfectly capture their time.  It isn’t just that Up in the Air is about a guy who fires people during the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression, it’s that his job exists because we live in a world where human connection has been outsourced and industrialized.  The faux hospitality Clooney’s Ryan Bingham mocks at the beginning of the film is only a small example of corporate attempts to mimic the qualities of being human.  A big deal is made in the film of “loyalty” but that loyalty is manifest in Bingham’s life by his quest for a gajillion frequent flier miles from an airline who will reward him for that loyalty with…wait for it…a meeting with an actual human being.

That peculiarly 00’s angst of technologically facilitated familiarity (an air hostess knowing your name because it comes up on her computer) breeding more isolation, not less, is powerfully captured in this remarkably dark yet unceasingly entertaining character study.  Like Hurt Locker, it’s only pretending to belong to a more popular genre.  It’s essentially Michael Clayton-as-romcom.

Like Precious, it’s one of those films where every performance, no matter how small (see J.K. Simmons’ two minutes) is dead on.  And Clooney does some of his finest work.  Uttering hardly a word, he absolutely makes a scene where his assistant (the amazing Anna Kendrick – watch Rocket Science to see what her character was like in high school) bares her soul to his lover (Vera Farmiga) while he looks on – it’s all in his reactions, and it’s perfect.

And Jason Reitman.  Holy crap!  Homeboy is three for three and only getting better.  He showed us he could handle satire in Thank You For Smoking and human drama in Juno and here he basically combines the two into some mash-up greater than the sum of those parts.  A truly great film.

Avatar closing in on The Dark Knight.  $492 million and the third highest-grossing film of all time.  In other, more obscure, but less predictable news, Carmen is now the highest grossing opera-on-the-big-screen (you know those ads you see before the movie starts for opera performances broadcast in theaters?) from the Met movie series with $3 million from 700 screens in one day.

Oh, and this week, Paul Bettany plays an angel and Darwin.

1/22

Wide

LEGION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Patrons of a diner fight off angels hell-bent (see what I did there?) on killing the next Messiah.

WILL IT SUCK?
Not much is known about behind the camera, but the cast sure is fun: Paul Bettany, Dennis Quaid, Doug Jones, Kevin Durand, and Lucas Black.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think people might be all apocalyps’d out by now.  $29mil.

THE TOOTH FAIRY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dwayne Johnson has to become a Tooth Fairy because he did something wrong and because it’s funny.

WILL IT SUCK?
When you’re making a movie about a guy forced to take on the role of a mythical children’s figure, I guess it makes sense to tap the guy who helmed Santa Clause 2 and 3.  You’ve got a slew of writers, including Lowell Ganz and Babaloo Mandel, who’ve been very hit or miss of late after cranking out stuff like Night Shift, Splash, and City Slickers with relative consistency back in the day.  Plus you’ve got some TV writers who’ve done some decent Simpsons but have only Surviving Christmas to their feature film credit.  Cast includes Stephen Merchant, so that’s a plus.

One reviewer compares it to “oral surgery without laughing gas,” while other reviewers are kinder but not, you know, happy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The last time they tried to humanize The Rock, The Game Plan made $90 million.  $68mil.

EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Harrison Ford’s Oil

WILL IT SUCK?
More confidence in the writer (Chocolat, Flushed Away, Water Horse) than the director (What Happens in Vegas). Also starring Brendan “Underrated” Fraser and Kerri Russel.

One reviewer compares it to a Hallmark TV movie and, well, that’s the only one in so far.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Feels more like a fall release. $18mil.

Limited

TO SAVE A LIFE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Popular kid reaches out to unpopular kid after popular kid’s unpopular childhood friend commits suicide.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good.  Little is known about the cast or crew, or whether or not the Fray song will make an appearance.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Certainly a lot more high profile indies floating around, but interested to see if this can find its audience in limited release.  $5mil.

CREATION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Charles Darwin writes a book that causes no controversy whatsoever.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good-but-not-great, which is impressive given that this is headier work than you’d expect from the director of The Core.  Paul Bettany is supposed to be outstanding as Darwin, and Jennifer Connelly, Toby Jones, and Jeremy Northam probably dont’ suck either.

Wonder if it’s a coincidence that the screenwriter also did Master and Commander, in which Bettany plays a doctor fascinated by Darwin’s work.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Might have benefitted more from an Awards season release, where the controversy it’s sure to raise would have gotten more traction.  $6mil.

Next Week: Sugartits McGee is back!

As usual, the Globes have snuck up on me.  As, um, not usual, I’m more psyched for the host than for the actual awards.  Here are the nominees, in case you’re as last minute about this as I am.

Best Song

Who cares?  Except that U2 is nominated and I somehow haven’t heard that song yet.  What is wrong with me?

Best Original Score

I’d like to see James Horner get it for Avatar.  I actually like it, what with its various Aliens shout-outs.  There is no rhyme or reason as to whom this award goes to, so let’s just say it will be Horner.

Best Screenplay

Up in the Air.  Inglourious Basterds counts as a slight spoiler, especially without the presence of (500) Days of Summer.  What’s up with that, anyway?

Best Director

See here’s where the 11th hour push for Avatar might turn the tide, but my money’s still on Bigelow besting her ex.  She would be only the second woman to win this award.  Who was the first?

Best Foreign Language Film

Um…The White Ribbon?

Best Animated Feature Film

Wow.  What a year for animated film!  So much to choose fro- yeah it’s gonna be Up.  Fox is a spoiler, though.

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz will debut version 1.0 of his SAG and Oscar acceptance speech.

Best Supporting Actress

I’d say Anna Kendrick might be a spoiler, but it’s not even gonna be close.  Mo’Nique all the way.

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

Call me nuts, but I’m gonna go with Downey in Holmes.  Don’t ask me why.

Best Actress  – Comedy/Musical

Streep beats Streep for Julie & Julia.

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical

Julie & Julia.  Honestly, for a lack of a clear frontrunner.  I’d say Nine, but I refuse to believe that a movie with this many bad reviews is going to take home the prize.

Best Actor – Drama

While the smart money’s on George Clooney, I’ve got a feeling about Jeff Bridges.  I thnk he’s gonna play Mickey Rourke to Clooney’s Sean Penn and take the Globe while Clooney takes the Oscar.

Best Actress – Drama

Carey Mulligan.  It gets harder when she goes up against Streep in March.

Best Picture – Drama

Finally, an awards show with the restraint to nominate only five films.  Dead heat between Hurt Locker and Up in the Air.  Oddsmakers favor the latter, and so will I.