More than ever, I’m finding that my predictions line up with the guild nominations for the respective categories. Is this year’s crop that predictable? Or am I just going to be very, very wrong?
Also, I decided this year to take a crack at Best Cinematography, just because the line up looks interesting. Of course, I just ended up going with the ASC nods…
Best Cinematography

Avatar – Mauro Fiore
Kind of weird when you think how much of this was digital, but that’s still cinematography, right?
The Hurt Locker – Barry Ackroyd
Worth it for that one extreme close-up of the post-bomb sand alone.
Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson
People don’t usually associate Tarantino with cinematography, but those long held shots only work if the composition is flawless.
Nine – Dion Beebe
About the highest profile nod I expect this to get, but I could be wrong.
The White Ribbon – Christian Berger
A frontrunner?
Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
This is not the reason Anna Kendrick will have trouble winning.
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Filling in the ingenue slot, but her role is so much more than that.
Diane Kruger – Inglourious Basterds
This could just as easily be Penelope Cruz, but I doubt Nine will get that much love.
Mo’Nique – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
The actual reason Anna Kendrick will have trouble winning.
Samantha Morton – The Messenger
Kind of a long shot, but the Academy loves her, and Woody Harrelson’s more likely Supporting nod for means the film is on their radar.
Sorely Overlooked: Mariah Carey in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire, Rosamund Pike in An Education
Best Supporting Actor

Peter Capaldi – In the Loop
Wishful thinking on my part, but stranger things have happened.
Matt Damon – Invictus
Arguably a lead performance, but it’s not like his chances would be any better in that category.
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Would be his second nod. A lot of people forget about Larry Flynt.
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Would be his first after 52 years in the business.
Cristoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
Calling him “the one to beat” would give you the false impression he was beatable.
Sorely Overlooked: David Rasche in In the Loop
Best Adapted Screenplay

An Education – Nick Hornby
Stupid WGA rules won’t lock Nick Hornby out of this nod.
Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach
First animated nod in this category in a while, right? Or ever? Anyone?
In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, & Tony Roche
Again, wishful thinking, but at least a few critics circles remembered it for this category.
Julie & Julia – Nora Ephron
The most obviously based-on-a-book title on the Academy’s radar (besides Precious, which for some reason isn’t getting any screenplay heat). Plus, has the cache of being based on two.
Up in the Air – Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
One of the many things that people love about this movie.
Sorely Overlooked: Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire – Geoffrey Fletcher
Best Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
The little-indie-comedy-that-surprised-us-all nod of the pack.
Avatar – James Cameron
This spot belongs to Up, but as Avatar is the prohibitive favorite for Best Picture, the Academy has to at least pretend it had one of the year’s best screenplays.
The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal
May be this flick’s best shot at a win.
Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
Stupid WGA rules won’t lock Tarantino out of this category, which he’s already won once before. (Okay, this rule might not be that stupid since he’s not actually a member and it’s their prerogative to award those who actually belong to their organization. Still, the award might have a more definitive status if it expanded its scope, plus, it’s not a bad recruiting tool to be given an award from an organization that likes what you do. But I digress.)
A Serious Man – Ethan & Joel Coen
Probably deserves a lot more than this, but it is a good screenplay.
Sorely Overlooked: Adventureland – Greg Mottola
Best Actress

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
And she will probably win. Seriously.
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
“Dear Dame Mirren (I’m assuming you’re a Dame, since you’re British and all), I did not see or hear of nor am I sure what the name of your movie is, but I heard you were good in it, so I am going to nominate you for Best Actress since it just feels like the right thing to do. Yours truly, The Academy.”
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Until recently, the prohibitive favorite (or at least a spoiler for Streep). Then Bullock happened.
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Strangely, overshadowed by Mo’Nique even though her performance is a classic Best Actress performance.
Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
If this happens, she will have been nominated five times in the past 10 years!
Best Actor

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
And he will win. With a standing ovation.
George Clooney – Up in the Air
He would have won, but then Bridges happened.
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Was never going to win, but it’s nice to know the Academy was paying attention.
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Would be number five.
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
If it happens, which is as likely as not, would be a hell of a get for a guy most people hadn’t heard of (and still haven’t).
Sorely Overlooked: Sam Rockwell in Moon, Sharlto Copley in District 9
Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
I sooooo want her to win. Mostly so’s I can see the look on her ex’s face.
James Cameron – Avatar
I sooooo don’t want to see the look on his face if he wins. Nor do I want to hear him speak Na’vi again.
Lee Daniels – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Would be the first time an African American has been nominated for Best Director ever. Yup. We got one elected President first.
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
His second nod for only his third film. Damn.
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
Not a member of the DGA, either, but he still got nominated for their award. Just saying.
Sorely Overlooked: Pete Docter & Bob Peterson for Up
Best Picture

Avatar
Sigh.
(500) Days of Summer
Think of this as the Little Miss Sunshine slot.
An Education
There’s ten nominees. Just having a high profile acting nod is suddenly enough to make the cut (not that this doesn’t deserve it).
The Hurt Locker
I remember when I thought even having ten nominees wouldn’t be enough to get this on the Academy’s radar. Glad to be (fingers crossed) wrong.
Inglourious Basterds
This would give it almost every nod Pulp Fiction got back in the day.
Invictus
Clint Eastwood make any movies this year? Yeah? Okay, throw it in.
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
That many high profile performances and our first black director? No way this doesn’t make it in. Unless it’s The Color Purple.
Star Trek
Yay! We’re the Academy! We’re populist!
Up
With ten nominees, we’re probably looking at a reserved Pixar spot for the foreseeable future.
Up in the Air
I want to think of this as a frontrunner, but I know I shouldn’t.
Sorely Overooked: Sherlock Holmes. There, I said it.